STOCK MARKET WATCH, Monday November 26

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Monday November 26, 2007

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 422 LONG DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2505 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2227 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 2188
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 10
Enron execs conveniently deceased = 3
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

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U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES

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AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON November 23, 2007

Dow... 12,980.88 +181.84 (+1.42%)
Nasdaq... 2,596.60 +34.45 (+1.34%)
S&P 500... 1,440.70 +23.93 (+1.69%)
Gold future... 824.70 +26.10 (+3.16%)
30-Year Bond 4.44% -0.03 (-0.65%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.01% -0.01 (-0.30%)






GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie and Silver

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PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact actionpost@legitgov.org

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

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Read more: du

BY BRIAN PRETTI

As we approach the holidays, there is no question that all eyes will be on retail sales stats. Already, retail industry consultants and assorted fortune tellers are counseling those who listen not to expect fireworks, but rather a moderate 4% year over year increase. C’mon, let’s face it, that kind of a number isn’t even keeping up with the reality of inflation. So are we to expect a lump of coal this holiday season from the up until now indefatigable US consumer? To be honest, a lump of coal may no longer be a bad thing given global energy dynamics. Although holiday sales may be a temporary perceptual marker, the importance of watching retail trends ahead goes far beyond holiday seasonality. If you don’t mind, a few thoughts and observations of the moment.

First, I’ve been arguing for some time that watching the discretionary components of the retail sales numbers is the current analytical key. A consumer under pressure is going to back off on discretionary purchases first. A Starbucks vente latte anyone? Well at least according to Starbucks stock price, apparently not. As you know, the October retail sales report recently hit the Street. Outside of auto and gas sales during October, only building materials, food and beverage stores, and food services and drinking places showed any month over month strength. Let's face it, building materials sales have been beaten into the ground over the past year plus. A one-month up tick is meaningless until a firm and longer-term change in trend is firmly established, and I’m not holding my breath here. Food sales strength in both grocery stores and restaurants? Certainly a good bit of this is plain old inflation in food prices, plus the grocery store end is really not discretionary. The PPI and CPI are corroborating the food price inflation picture (this is going to be a longer term theme of importance). Furniture and home furnishings showed us negative month over month sales growth. General merchandise was negative, and electronics, appliance, and clothing sales flat. When looking back over the past three months, weakness in discretionary retail sales growth is clearly evident. It stands out like a sore thumb. And it's telling us an important story regarding the US consumer. And at least as of the recent action in the financial markets, it appears the equity markets are starting to listen to what we are already seeing in retail trends.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

Oil prices rose to near $99 a barrel Monday with temperatures falling in the United States and Europe and continued weakness for the U.S. dollar.

The Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday marked the unofficial start of winter in the United States. Among other areas, southeastern New Mexico got up to 9 inches of snow and experienced colder than normal temperatures over the holiday weekend. Snow also fell in Germany over the weekend.

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Light, sweet crude for January delivery added 75 cents to $98.93 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, midday in Europe.

On Friday, the contract rose 89 cents to settle at $98.18 a barrel, besting the previous settlement record by 15 cents.

January Brent crude added 68 cents to $96.44 a barrel on the ICE Futures exchange.

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Nymex crude prices reached a trading record of $99.29 a barrel on Wednesday, and are within the range of inflation-adjusted highs set in early 1980. Depending on how the adjustment is calculated, $38 a barrel then would be worth $96 to $103 or more today.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

NEW YORK - After what appeared to be a strong start to the 2007 holiday shopping season, the nation's merchants are now hoping that shoppers will continue to keep buying until Dec. 25.

Shoppers had been pulling back in recent months amid a challenging economy, and the big worry is that after the big spending spree this past weekend, they will retreat over the next few weeks, only returning to malls for last-minute shopping.

Clearly, stores and malls worked hard to achieve the strong results, attracting bigger-than-expected crowds as early as midnight for discounted flat-panel TVs, digital cameras and toys on Friday. Strong sales continued through Saturday, according to one research group that tracks total sales at retail outlets across the country.

The biggest draw was electronics, benefiting consumer electronics chains like Best Buy Co. and discounters such as Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Target Corp. Popular-priced department stores including J.C. Penney Co. and Kohl's Corp. drew in crowds with good deals. Toy stores like Toys "R" Us Inc. fared well too. Still, apparel sales appeared to be mixed at mall-based clothing stores, though a cold weather snap helped spur sales of outerwear and other winter-related items.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20071126/ap_on_bi_ge/holiday_shopping

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com ) -- Although deep discounts brought out much bigger crowds of holiday bargain hunters, a major retail trade group said Sunday that shoppers actually spent less money this year over the crucial Thanksgiving weekend.

The National Retail Foundation's (NRF's) 2007 Black Friday Weekend Survey said more than 147 million shoppers hit the stores over the Black Friday weekend, up 4.8 percent from last year.

However, the trade group said consumers, on average, spent an estimated $347.44 in total on Thursday, Friday, Saturday and Sunday, down 3.5 percent from the previous year.

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The NRF's projection put a damper on some earlier estimates, including one from MasterCard Advisors on Friday that estimated Black Friday purchases to hit $20 billion this year, up from $19.1 billion last year.

Also, ShopperTrak RCT Corp., which tracks sales at more than 50,000 retail outlets, said Saturday that total sales rose 8.3 percent to about $10.3 billion on Black Friday, compared with $9.5 billion on the same day a year ago.

http://money.cnn.com/2007/11/25/news/economy/nrf_blackfridayweekendsales/index.htm?postversion=2007112516

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/11/25/business/26cnd-retail.html?_r=1&hp&oref=slogin


snip
Sales rose 8.3 percent on Friday compared with last year’s day after Thanksgiving, the biggest increase in three years, according to ShopperTrak RCT, a research firm. But shoppers did not splurge, spending an estimated $348 each over the holiday weekend, down from $360 last year, a survey conducted for the National Retail Federation found.
end


About 12 dollars less per person. But hey, it's only 12 dollars. Sales were UP 8.3 PERCENT, WOOHOO! And if we ignore the compounding factor of the shrinking value of the dollar by sticking our fingers in our ears and singing "LA,LA,LA,LA,LA,LA,LA,LA!!!!!!" then it's practically like we're doing fine!!!!



My Favorite Master Artist: Karen Parker GhostWoman Studios

NEW YORK - Wall Street headed toward a higher open on Monday as sales reports indicated a strong start to the holiday shopping season and seemed to ease investor concerns about consumer spending.

Retail sales on Friday and Saturday combined rose 7.2 percent to $16.4 billion from the same two-day period a year ago, according to ShopperTrak, which tracks total sales at more than 50,000 U.S. retail outlets.

With energy prices at the highest in decades, and economic uncertainty looming over the market, investors have been nervous that consumers would cut back during the holidays. Consumer spending accounts for two-thirds of all economic activity.

Dow Jones industrials futures advanced 74, or 0.60 percent, to 13,060, while Standard & Poor's 500 index futures rose 7.10, or 0.49 percent, to 1,449.00, and Nasdaq 100 index futures advanced 12.50 points, or 0.62 percent, to 2,045.00.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20071126/ap_on_bi_st_ma_re/wall_street_1

LONDON (Reuters) - Gold prices jumped to two-week highs on Monday as investors sought refuge from financial market uncertainty, the dollar slipped and oil prices held firm near record highs.

Platinum hit a record high of $1,486 an ounce on worries about falling supplies from South Africa after the country's biggest union said last week it was planning a strike against the mounting number of mine deaths.

Spot gold hit $836.70 a troy ounce, the highest since November 9 and was up at $836.15/836.85 by 5:43 a.m. EST, compared with $821.20/821.90 late in New York on Friday. Earlier this month it hit a 28-year high of $845.40.

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WATCHING EQUITIES

Traders expect gold prices to stay at current levels and possibly test the record high of $850 an ounce set in January 1980, but they think that another downturn in equity markets could see gold prices fall.

Over the course of this year, many investors have sold gold to cover stock market losses, while others have cut their holdings of the precious metal alongside other investments to take their portfolios back to neutral.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20071126/bs_nm/markets_precious_dc

Global markets are reflecting unease that a deteriorating US economy, which comprises about 25 per cent of total world activity, could torpedo the notion that Asia and other countries can "decouple" from a sickly North America.

China's Shanghai index fell below 5,000 this week, the first time since August, and is now more than 17 per cent lower since setting a record high in mid-October.

The big fear is that the US consumer, battered by record high energy prices, a collapsing housing market and a growing credit squeeze from banks will have no choice but to rein in spending.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ft/20071124/bs_ft/fto112320072258005142

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=adpUU7HzHHbM&refer=asia

Nov. 26 (Bloomberg) -- Asia's benchmark stock index rose the most in nine weeks after U.S. retail sales climbed during the post-Thanksgiving weekend, boosting the prospects for exports to the region's biggest overseas market.

Nintendo Co., maker of the Wii game console, and LG Electronics Inc., Asia's second-largest maker of mobile phones, advanced after ShopperTrak RCT Corp. reported that U.S. retail sales on Nov. 23 climbed 8.3 percent from a year earlier. Westfield Group, the owner of 59 shopping malls in the U.S., rose to a three-week high.

``The holiday shopping spending in the U.S. may be surprisingly healthy,'' said Hisakazu Amano, who helps oversee about $16 billion at T&D Asset Management Co. in Tokyo.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index added 2.7 percent to 158.51 at 5:52 p.m. in Tokyo, set for its biggest advance since Sept. 19. More than six stocks gained for each that slid. South Korea's Kospi climbed 82.45, or 4.7 percent, its second-biggest gain on record behind an increase of 93.20 on Aug. 20.

Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Average rose 1.7 percent to 15,135.21 and the broader Topix index jumped 2.1 percent, led by Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc., after the Nikkei newspaper said China's new state investment fund will buy Japanese stocks.

The S&P/ASX 200 Index added 2.2 percent in Australia, where voters ousted Prime Minister John Howard on Nov. 24 and elected Kevin Rudd as their new leader. Rio Tinto Group surged after the China Business Journal said the Chinese state-backed fund plans to bid for the world's third-largest mining company.

Benchmarks gained elsewhere in the region, except for China and Sri Lanka.

/...

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20071126/bs_nm/summers_recession_dc;_ylt=Au61CEZvvMIkAJfW7oK7W9m573QA

ZURICH (Reuters) - The odds now point to a U.S. economic recession that slows global growth significantly even if necessary policy changes are implemented, former U.S. Treasury secretary Larry Summers said.

Summers, who served in the Democratic administration of former president Bill Clinton, said the U.S. authorities needed to act urgently in avert long-lasting economic damage from the global credit crunch.

"Without stronger policy responses than have been observed to date ... there is the risk that the adverse impacts will be felt for the rest of the decade and beyond," Summers wrote in a column in the Financial Times on Monday.

Summers said the U.S. Federal Reserve should recognize that "levels of the fed funds rate that were neutral when the financial system was working normally are quite contractionary today."

The Fed has already cut the policy rate to 4.5 percent from 5.25 percent since the global crisis was triggered in August by defaults on U.S. mortgages, and financial markets expect further easing.

Summers said fiscal policy needed to be "on stand-by" to provide immediate temporary stimulus through spending or tax benefits for low and middle income families if the situation worsens.

The authorities also had to respond urgently to the contraction in credit, said Summers. "The time for worrying about imprudent lending is past. The priority has to be maintaining the flow of credit."

/...

11/25/07 Three months ago it was reasonable to expect that the subprime credit crisis would be a financially significant event but not one that would threaten the overall pattern of economic growth. This is still a possible outcome but no longer the preponderant probability.

Even if necessary changes in policy are implemented, the odds now favour a US recession that slows growth significantly on a global basis. Without stronger policy responses than have been observed to date, moreover, there is the risk that the adverse impacts will be felt for the rest of this decade and beyond.

Several streams of data indicate how much more serious the situation is than was clear a few months ago. First, forward-looking indicators suggest that the housing sector may be in free-fall from what felt like the basement levels of a few months ago. Single family home construction may be down over the next year by as much as half from previous peak levels. There are forecasts implied by at least one property derivatives market indicating that nationwide house prices could fall from their previous peaks by as much as 25 per cent over the next several years.

more...
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/b56079a8-9b71-11dc-8aad-0000779fd2ac.html

http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idINL2656252120071126?rpc=44

LONDON, Nov 26 (Reuters) - European shares rose for the third straight day by midday on Monday, led by banks, while commodity stocks benefited from merger-related news and higher metal and crude prices.

At 1141 GMT, the FTSEurofirst 300 (.FTEU3: Quote, Profile, Research) index of top European shares was up 0.8 percent at 1,487.86 points, back in positive territory for the year after a credit market-linked slide in summer and a 7 percent fall in November, on track to be the worst month since early 2003.

/...

http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idINL2672393320071126?rpc=611

LONDON, Nov 26 (Reuters) - European shares fell on Monday as banks once again bore the brunt of investor fears over the impact of the credit crunch, yet losses were limited by a bounce in techs and perceived safe-havens such as food stocks.

Shares in HSBC (HSBA.L: Quote, Profile, Research) were the largest negative weight on the broader market after Goldman Sachs analysts cut their rating on the bank.

The FTSEurofirst 300 index (.FTEU3: Quote, Profile, Research) of top European shares ended down 0.58 percent at 1,467.58 points, having touched an intraday high at 1,491.99 points.

The index has surrendered all its gains for the year and is on track for an 8-percent fall this month, which would make it the largest monthly slide since December 2002.

"Sentiment is clearly very fragile still in the market," said Darren Winder, head of macro and strategy research at Cazenove.

"Clearly people continue to be focused very much on the financial sector, waiting to see if there are any more difficulties," he said.

HSBC shares ended down 1.9 percent, after a Goldman analyst said the bank would likely need a further $12 billion in provisions for its subprime unit.

Barclays (BARC.L: Quote, Profile, Research), which is due to release third-quarter trade figures on Tuesday, was down 2.6 percent and among the continental European banks, Societe Generale (SOGN.PA: Quote, Profile, Research) was down 1.8 percent, while BNP Paribas (BNPP.PA: Quote, Profile, Research) fell 2.0 percent and UniCredito (CRDI.MI: Quote, Profile, Research) was down 3.2 percent.

/...

WASHINGTON (AP) -- James LaRue says he lost $150,000 when his instructions to his employer on where to invest money in his retirement plan were ignored.

Now the Supreme Court will decide whether a federal pension-protection law gives LaRue the right to sue to recover his losses. Arguments in the case were scheduled for Monday.

LaRue, who used to work at a management consulting firm, is among the 42 million workers who contributed to a 401(k) retirement plan, one of 250,000 across the country. At issue in LaRue's case are the limits to lawsuits under the Employee Retirement Income Security Act (ERISA). It regulates private-sector retirement plans holding over $5.5 trillion in assets, including $2 trillion in 401(k) plans.

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ERISA was designed to safeguard pension fund money from misappropriation.

http://money.cnn.com/2007/11/25/pf/retirement/bc.scotus.pension.ap/index.htm?postversion=2007112507

LONDON (AP) -- Northern Rock PLC will proceed with accelerated takeover discussions with a consortium led by Virgin Group, the battered mortgage lender said Monday.

Virgin, which proposes to rebrand Northern Rock as part of Virgin Money business, says its consortium would repay £11 billion ($22.7 billion) of the £25 billion (50 billion) the Bank of England has loaned to Northern Rock on the completion of the transaction.

The remainder of the money would be paid "in due course," Northern Rock said in an announcement to the London Stock Exchange.

The Virgin Consortium also promised additional funding facilities to support the business.

Virgin's consortium includes W.L. Ross & Co, Toscafund Asset Management LLP and First Eastern Investment Group.

http://money.cnn.com/2007/11/26/news/international/northern_rock.ap/index.htm?postversion=2007112605

:donut: :donut: :donut:

It's time for me to head toward the door. Have fun watching the Casino.

:hi:

http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idINL265515320071126?rpc=44

LONDON, Nov 26 (Reuters) - The dollar fell versus the euro on Monday, retreating towards record lows set last week as investors saw little reason to change the view that more Federal Reserve interest rate cuts are imminent.

Investors remain on edge about more fallout from the credit crunch as the approaching year-end may force investors to dump assets or scramble for cash to get their books in order amid market strains.

However a small increase in risk appetite driven by rising Asian and European equities led to a rise in high yielding currencies like the Australian dollar.

"Risk appetite has come back a bit with stocks up across the board so we've seen a rally (in high yielding currencies) from oversold technical positions (reached) last week," said David Woo, head of currency research at Barclays Capital.

By 1116 GMT, the euro was up a quarter percent at $1.4873, edging again towards an all-time high of $1.4966 set on Friday according to Reuters data <EUR=>.

A growing number of analysts reckon the exchange rate could breach the psychologically key $1.50 level this year.

/...

Also:

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/strategy_pieces/trade_or_fade/Dollar__1_50_in_the_Crosshairs__1196057487219.html
The Swiss franc hit record highs against the greenback slipping below the key 1.1000 level for firt time ever, but its triumph was short lived as USDCHF quickly recovered the 1.1100 figure in early Friday London trade. As we noted in our daily, “during the Asian session traders were able to trigger stops below that barrier and precipitated a massive decline in the dollar across all the majors as holiday thinned liquidity greatly exaggerated the price action.” Even without the stop running shenanigans the franc has been a bastion of strength against the greenback as economic data from the mountain economy continues to surprises to the upside. Last week’s Trade Balance and employment data both showed better than expected results as Switzerland continues to benefit from steady global growth and lower exchange rate of the franc.

In recent weeks, the franc has lost some its carry trade vulnerability, as speculation mounted that the SNB may raise rates in December irrespective of ECB action. Should that occur the interest rate spread between the euro and the franc should narrow to only 100 basis points. Little wonder then that EURCHF continued to decline for most of the week reaching a low of 1.6300. Next week however, may be more challenging for the Swissie. The KOF index of leading indicator is expected to slip below the psychologically important 2.00 level. On the flip side however, if Swiss CPI data prints hotter than forecast, speculation of an SNB rate hike are sure to increase and the franc could continue to rise.

...

The pound remained on the defensive for most of the week registering only a tepid rise against the greenback as trading came to a close. The market remains wary of any potential BoE rate hike in December and this week’s release of the BoE, while right in line with consensus did little to alleviate trader’s concern. BoE minutes revealed that the MPC voted 7-2 to keep rates steady with David Blanchflower and John Gieve voting in favor of a 25bp cut. The vote count was expected but nevertheless triggered selling in the GBPUSD as traders worried that the committee may be on the verge of initiating a 25bp cut at the next MPC meeting.

On the economic front the UK data continued to show signs of weakness as Rightmove survey house prices declined for the second time in three months and GDP printed slightly softer at 3.2% vs. 3.3% forecast. Overall the news was not definitively sterling bearish but it did open the possibility of easing by the BoE.

Black Friday showing sales up but people spending less (meaning more people were involved). To *me*, that means more and more people are trying to stretch their holiday shopping dollars which means fewer will be buying more in the future as those non-core items like food and gas and oil ( :eyes: ) take more and more out of everyday Americans' pockets.

Must be a good day to invest in the stock market!


"Hey, honey? We don't need these wedding rings, do we? Let's pawn them and invest in some G.E.!!"

:donut: The sum of our spending on black Friday.....one tube of hand lotion from the Body Shop, lunch at Chili's and a first run viewing of Enchanted. The movie turned out to be a great mother daughter flick for two chicks that grew up on Disney fare. It was chocked full of laughs, subtle tributes, and inside jokes. It got :thumbsup::thumbsup: for lighthearted holiday fare that kids will love and parents won't be driven to insanity watching. We also saw Beowulf. You can figure that if Angelina plays Grendel's mom-they don't follow the poem. I took it face value for the story alone and thought it was ok. My daughter, who had just read Beowulf, really did not like it. She said (and she has a point)that the movie was long enough and the story interesting enough that they could have just stuck with the story. It got :thumbsup::thumbsdown: The animation on it was a bit strange but I am always game to see movie producers introduce new technology.

I went out to the mall again, but, while there were shoppers there-I didn't see a whole lot of bags. I had no problem finding a space, and did not have long lines to wait in. My Christmas tally: $75 for my brother, SIL and little niece, $20 for a mani-pedi for my friend who has had a crappy year (legal woes and hubby now dealing with bladder CA) and another $30 for mani-pedi for my daughter for baby sitting said friend's children so she could have down time, $60 tip to the ladies at the mani-pedi place who graciously repair the damage I seem to do to my pedi on my way out the door every time I have it done, 2 twin comforters $109, one personal dvd player for the bedroom $79 (a surprise unplanned purchase), and $30 car safety kit for new driver teen daughter since I can't bubble wrap the car. The total is around $383. I spent an additional 6 bucks for decorations and cards. So our total is around $390 total Christmas expense. The undergarments will probable push us to $450-more than I wanted to spend but not a grand shopping spree as you can tell. Inflation adds a healthy sum. It is paid for in cash-so that is it. I intend to pay 2 creditors off next month and give a nice donation to the church. THAT make it a very good holiday. All I have to do now is mail out some cards.

Happy hunting and watch out for the bears.

Found that new Gilmore Girls complete series at deepdiscountdvd.com with a 20% off coupon so I couldn't pass that up, esp. since my ex offered to go in half on it. Bought a few Christmas DVDs and the Audrey Hepburn collection.

I'll get some clothes for the girls on the next check. Total Christmas bill for me this year? About $600. But that's inflated a bit because I'm expecting a very special visitor in a few weeks (oh, I hope! I hope! I hope!)

Haven't been to a mall yet and don't plan on going to one any time soon.

I did notice many visitors from Mexico shopping at the high end stores. The Mexican upper classes are a big part of the Galleria sales. Years ago when there was a crisis with the peso, the Galleria became a ghost town. When they shop they bring the entire family and the nanny. There were other nationalities there too. I will have to check the malls in the outlying areas. For all the hoopla, I don't think it was so great a weekend.

A 'special' visitor? Sounds interesting. :winkwinknudgenudge:

Been trying for over a year with this one. ;)

11/24/07
http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article18777.htm by Mike Whitney

Take a Look at Professor Roubini's Crystal Ball

No one has predicted the downward-spiral in the market more accurately than Nouriel Roubini. Roubini is a Professor at the Stern School of Business at New York University. His analysis appears regularly on his blogsite, Global EconoMonitor. Last week's prediction was particularly dire and is worth reprinting here:

"It is increasingly clear by now that a severe U.S. recession is inevitable in next few months...I now see the risk of a severe and worsening liquidity and credit crunch leading to a generalized meltdown of the financial system of a severity and magnitude like we have never observed before. In this extreme scenario whose likelihood is increasing we could see a generalized run on some banks; and runs on a couple of weaker (non-bank) broker dealers that may go bankrupt with severe and systemic ripple effects on a mass of highly leveraged derivative instruments that will lead to a seizure of the derivatives markets... massive losses on money market funds with a run on both those sponsored by banks and those not sponsored by banks; ..ever growing defaults and losses ($500 billion plus) in subprime, near prime and prime mortgages with severe knock-on effect on the RMBS and CDOs market; massive losses in consumer credit (auto loans, credit cards); severe problems and losses in commercial real estate...; the drying up of liquidity and credit in a variety of asset backed securities putting the entire model of securitization at risk; runs on hedge funds and other financial institutions that do not have access to the Fed's lender of last resort support; a sharp increase in corporate defaults and credit spreads; and a massive process of re-intermediation into the banking system of activities that were until now altogether securitized." (Nouriel Roubini's Global EconoMonitor)

"A generalized meltdown of the financial system".

Looks like Chicken Little might have gotten it right this time; "The sky IS falling."

http://www.rgemonitor.com/blog/roubini/228234 Roubini 11/21/07

11/25/07 Liquidity and Credit Crunch in Financial Markets is Back to Summer Peaks, Only Much Worse and More Dangerous by Nouriel Roubini

There is now increasing evidence that the liquidity and credit crunch in international financial markets is back to its summer peaks of August and, in most dimensions, even worse than in the summer; financial markets are now in a “virtual panic mode” according to a market participant (as reported by the FT). This worsening of the financial markets turmoil has occurred in spite of the hundreds of billions of dollars and euros that have been injected in the financial system by the Fed, the ECB and other central banks and in spite of the 75bps cut in the Fed Funds rate by the Fed. This massive easing of liquidity – both its quantity and price - has miserably failed to stem a severe liquidity crunch that is now back to the summer peaks, as evidenced for example in the interbank markets – both in US and Europe - by the sharp widening of Libor rates - at a variety of maturities – relative to equivalent maturity government yields and/or policy rate; such sharp rise of spreads to summer levels signals a worsening of the liquidity crunch.

Indeed the ECB is now announcing another massive injection of liquidity. This injection of liquidity will miserably fail like the previous ones as the ECB is not getting it that a reduction in its policy rate is now necessary and urgent. As the Fed Funds cut by the Fed suggest, such policy rate cut may not prevent a worsening of the liquidity conditions; but the lack of a cut in the ECB policy rates makes such a liquidity crunch in Europe – and the risks of a serious contagion from the US hard landing - even worse than the alternative.

lots more...
http://www.rgemonitor.com/blog/roubini/228668

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 74.984 Change -0.097 (-0.13%)

Dollar: 1.50 in the Crosshairs?

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/topheadline/Dollar__1_50_in_the_Crosshairs__1196057487219.html

In Friday we wrote, “In what is quickly becoming a Thanksgiving tradition, the currency markets went for a wild, volatile ride tonight as the EURUSD rose more than 100 points in less than two hours, coming within the range of the key 1.50 level, before dropping just as quickly to 1.4800.” The price action in the EURUSD was clearly driven by stop triggering maneuvers in the USDCHF which tested and then broke the key 1.1000 level and pulled the dollar down against all the majors. However, once the holiday thinned shenanigans were over the pair returned to its pre-Thanksgiving price.

There is no doubt that the pair wants to target 1.5000 again and may actually reach that level next week, but it will have to do so with more substantial reasons than mere stop running. Trading next week could be well be driven by the housing data upon which the whole dollar arguments rests at the moment. If housing continues to plumb the subterranean depths putting relentless pressure on the Fed to cut in December, currency traders may well feel emboldened to run the 1.500 barrier once again . However, if housing shows some signs of stabilization , the rest of the economic docket looks relatively dollar friendly. GDP is expected to print at a whopping 4.9% vs. 3.9% last month, but the key may well be the personal income/spending numbers. The whole dollar doomsday scenario is built on the assumption of quickly deteriorating consumption. If the US consumer proves to be more resilient than the market believes, the greenback may be able to edge away from the abyss.– BS.



...more...

US Dollar May Fall Further As Housing, Sentiment Data Raise Recession Fears

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/dailyfx_reports/cross_markets_data_reaction/US_Dollar_May_Fall_Further_1196084622691.html

Just in case traders forgot, US economic data this week is likely to highlight the mounting recession risks that have plagued the greenback and equity markets. Indeed, the S&P/Case-Schiller house price index is anticipated to post a record drop for the third consecutive quarter at a rate of 4.1 percent. With inventory levels holding at over 10 months for existing homes and over 8 months for new homes (according to the National Association of Realtors) and demand highly unlikely to pick up anytime soon, it’s no wonder that prices have pulled back so much. Furthermore, the few Americans looking to buy face major hurdles, as lending standards have become far stricter as financial institutions remain leery of issuing credit. Nevertheless, this news will not be entirely surprising to investors as everyone from US Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson to Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke has acknowledged the dismal status and prospects for the housing sector. However, the one factor that there is little consensus on is the American consumer. Will they remain as resilient as ever in the face of record high gasoline prices and declines in the stock markets and spend their way through the holiday shopping season, or will they turn more pessimistic and conserve their income in fear of recession? Believe it or not, reports that Black Friday saw US retailers rake in more cash than last year have left many quite optimistic that these kind of results will be the norm throughout December. However, this may simply be the result of massive discounting, and it remains to be seen just how willing consumers are to loosen their purse strings. The Conference Board’s consumer confidence survey for the month of November is expected to support the more cynical predictions, as the index may drop for the fourth consecutive month to a two-year low of 91.0. Fed fund futures are pricing in a 96 percent chance of a 25bp cut in December, and this speculation may only be ramped up further if Tuesday’s US economic data proves to be as disappointing as or worse than expectations.

...more...

WASHINGTON — To help alleviate any end of year cash crunch, the Federal Reserve announced Monday that it will conduct a series of special operations starting this week.

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York, in a brief statement, said it will make the first such operation on Wednesday, for about $8 billion. The operation, essentially makes available short-term, six-week loans, maturing on Jan. 10, to financial institutions, and thus boosts cash available to them.

The Fed didn't say when its next operation would be conducted. "The timing and amounts of subsequent term operations spanning the year-end will be influenced by market and reserve developments," the Fed said in its statement.

The Fed has engaged in such special operations in previous years, most recently in 2005.

By making sure there is ample cash, or liquidity, in the U.S. financial system, the Fed hopes to remove any upward pressure on its key short-term interest rate called the federal funds rate. The current target for the funds rate, the interest banks charge each other on overnight loans, is 4.50 percent. It is the Fed's main tool for influencing overall economic activity because the funds rate affects many other interest rates charged to people and businesses.

The end of year typically can be a time when financial institutions scramble for cash and the recent credit crisis has heightened concern.

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/ap/business/5329155.html

Where to file this jem... Don't piss on my leg and tell me it's raining file :think: or I can't believe they think I'm THAT stupid file.

Dow 13,008.28 27.40 (0.21%)
Nasdaq 2,608.07 11.47 (0.44%)
S&P 500 1,443.26 2.56 (0.18%)
10-Yr Bond 3.997% 0.015

NYSE Volume 255,916,296.875
Nasdaq Volume 135,618,640.625

09:45 am : The major indices open in mixed fashion but recover into the green as retailers and consumer spending continues to be in focus.

According to ShopperTrak RCT, there was an 8.3% gain in sales on Black Friday, higher than their estimated 4-5% increase. However, shoppers seemed to spend about 3.5% less per person. CIBC noted that on Black Friday, traffic was heaviest at consumer electronics retailers, though there was not much observed interest in higher-end TVs.

UBS expects that holiday sales will show their weakest year-over-year pace since 2002. The firm expects real consumer spending growth to slow to about a 1.5% annual rate during the year ahead from a trend of 3% or more until recently.DJ30 +8.78 NASDAQ +8.47 SP500 +0.28

09:14 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -0.8. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -0.8. Early indications now suggest a slightly lower open. There are no economic reports scheduled today.

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +0.6. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: flat. The futures market slips and now points to a flat opening. UBS expects that holiday sales will show their weakest year-over-year pace since 2002.

08:30 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +2.9. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +5.8. Futures continue to point to a positive start. A CNBC commentator reports that Citigroup (C) executives are saying that the firm is preparing for “massive” layoffs. Crude oil is up 0.1% to $98.30 per barrel.

http://money.cnn.com/2007/11/24/magazines/fortune/eavis_conduits.fortune/index.htm

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20071126/bs_nm/hsbc_dc;_ylt=AvRAUCN7Qchs5eHoBnZCOY.573QA

LONDON (Reuters) - HSBC Holdings Plc, Europe's biggest bank, has stepped in to support its two structured investment vehicles -- Cullinan and Asscher -- with funding of up to $35 billion to prevent forced sales of assets.

HSBC (HSBA.L), one of the biggest players in the structured investment vehicle (SIV) market, will consolidate $45 billion of assets and related funding from Cullinan and Asscher onto its $2.1 trillion balance sheet and set up new debt-issuing vehicles, it said on Monday.

The move is the first concrete proposal by a bank to overhaul SIVs -- structures that have been slammed in the credit turmoil by a lack of access to funding and a sharp decline in the value of the assets they hold which are mostly highly rated structured finance securities.

Their woes have led to fears of fire sales of many billions of dollars worth of securities, further hitting prices and sentiment.

"We believe that HSBC's actions will set a benchmark and restore a degree of confidence to the SIV sector, while providing a specific solution to address the challenges faced by investors in Cullinan and Asscher," Stuart Gulliver, chief executive of HSBC's Corporate, Investment Banking and Markets division, said in a statement.

U.S. banks led by Citigroup (C.N), Bank of America (BAC.N) and JP Morgan (JPM.N) have proposed a fund that could buy assets from struggling SIVs, but that plan has yet to get off the ground.

"HSBC believes there is not likely to be a near-term resolution of the funding problems faced by the SIV sector," the bank warned, however.

HSBC shares were down 1.6 percent at 813.5 pence by 9:29 a.m. EST, underperforming the broader UK stock market (.FTSE). The cost of insuring the bank's debt fell by 2 basis points to 51.5 basis points, in line with the broader market, according to Deutsche Bank prices.

"HSBC is moving to make things alright for its investors. But they appear to be saying the SIV market is stuffed," said one analyst who declined to be named.

Standard & Poor's said its AA- rating on HSBC was unaffected, and that while $35 billion of funding was a "substantial sum," the bank had the capacity to absorb the SIV obligations.

The bank said its earnings would not be affected by the move as end investors would still bear the risk of losses. Cullinan and Asscher are already funded into 2008.

/...

Has Toles been reading my posts? That's right out of my mouth. It's my mantra. Damn.

When it takes a few months and a Supreme Court decision to count a couple million votes. :eyes:

I guess it's all a question of motivation.

your tax dollars at work. Say comrade-I noticed YOU didn't spend your required amount.:spank:

:blush:

Mortgage Market Shakedown: Popsicle Index Down, Goldman Sachs
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=103&topic_id=322476

I don't know the blogger, the DU OP or the replying poster but I wondered about this myself. Is Goldman Sachs the Enron of this mess? Are they being protected from disclosure or are they clean of the current fiasco?

http://www.prudentbear.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=4836&Itemid=53

...

This immediately demonstrates the problem. Goldman Sachs, generally regarded as insulated from the subprime mortgage problem, has $72 billion of Level 3 assets; its capital is only $36 billion. If anything like 90% of the Level 3 assets’ value has to be written off, Goldman Sachs is insolvent. They do not have the option of acting like Nomura Securities did recently, selling everything possible and writing the remainder down to zero, because they would be without capital. Instead they are likely to be dragged kicking and screaming, quarter by quarter, to a gradual writedown and sale of their Level 3 assets, with their true position remaining undisclosed and obfuscated by meaninglessly optimistic statements by top management. Only the bonuses will survive, paid in cash and draining liquidity from the struggling company.

That’s what a death spiral looks like. The US survived the Great Depression, eventually, and Britain survived the 1973-74 debacle. However the market recovered only after it had plumbed depths previously thought impossible, at which even the soundest investments were trading far below their true value. After normality returned, the financial services landscape was very different, with many large and apparently solid houses having disappeared, a generation of participants reduced to driving taxis or selling apples and a generation of investors scarred by their losses and unwilling to return to the market. Emergency infusions of money, from the Fed or the taxpayers, generally do no good, only postponing the denouement and delaying the arrival of truly bargain price levels.

Such spirals of death represent the final definitive triumph of the Bears.

/...


:shrug:

Several years ago a Dallas couple approaching retirement disappeared. Well-known on the charitable event circuit, the couple was in Dallas one day and gone the next. Phone disconnected. No forwarding address. No working cell phone number.

Eventually, word spread that they were somewhere in Mexico. They had sold whatever they owned, packed their car and headed for the border. They were, conflicting reports said, living in small towns, the kind of places seldom featured in travel magazines.

We can only speculate on what happened. I think they were broke, had little or nothing in savings, and knew they had to make a major change to survive on their Social Security income and minimal savings. Like millions of other Americans, their ship never came in. They got older. Work became harder to find. Suddenly they realized their life was entirely unsustainable. They were heading toward a cliff.

They had to do something radical. Like live in an RV. Or leave the country.

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/business/5323335.html

Boy, does this sound familiar.:eyes:

They come here looking for work in their strong years and we send our elderly there to retire so that they don't have to eat cat food.

What is wrong with this picture?

Most of them are living on Social Security and minimal, if any, savings. Many of them live in RV's or travel trailers.

to talk me into relocating to India. There are some places there that are ok, but I have never been too keen on it. Since his last visit-he has not been pushing the idea. I think the currency rate exchange shocked him a bit. It is not as good a deal as he thought.

By Peter Sayer, IDG News Service
November 26, 2007

Sony purchase follows the recent Abu Dabai investment in AMD -- signs of Middle Eastern investors' growing interest in technology

Dubai International Capital has bought a "substantial" stake in Sony, another sign of Middle Eastern investors' growing interest in technology.

The investment, announced Monday, is also a vote of confidence for Sony, which is going through a major restructuring. Dubai International Capital (DIC) expects its investment to grow in the medium term as Sony applies its brand and product design skills to emerging technologies, it said.

DIC did not disclose the amount of the investment, its first in Japan. The fund through which it was made, Global Strategic Equities Fund, manages assets of around $2 billion. Its recent acquisitions include a 3.12 percent stake, worth around $837 million, in European aircraft manufacturer EADS.

Shares in Sony rose 4.6 percent on the Tokyo stock exchange Monday on news of the Dubai investment, although Sony representatives reached in Europe were unable to confirm the news.
<snip>

http://www.infoworld.com/article/07/11/26/Dubai-investment-fund-takes-stake-in-Sony_1.html

Central bank makes more money available to financial institutions

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21977813/

WASHINGTON - To help alleviate any end of year cash crunch, the Federal Reserve announced Monday that it will conduct a series of special operations starting this week.

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York, in a brief statement, said it will make the first such operation on Wednesday, for about $8 billion. The operation, essentially makes available short-term, six-week loans, maturing on Jan. 10, to financial institutions, and thus boosts cash available to them.

The Fed didn't say when its next operation would be conducted. "The timing and amounts of subsequent term operations spanning the year-end will be influenced by market and reserve developments," the Fed said in its statement.

By making sure there is ample cash, or liquidity, in the U.S. financial system, the Fed hopes to remove any upward pressure on its key short-term interest rate called the federal funds rate. The current target for the funds rate, the interest banks charge each other on overnight loans, is 4.50 percent. It is the Fed's main tool for influencing overall economic activity because the funds rate affects many other interest rates charged to people and businesses.

great minds, rolling down the same gutter and all;)

http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idINL2654182720071126?rpc=611

LONDON, Nov 26 (Reuters) - The U.S. Federal Reserve and European Central Bank on Monday sought to calm stressed money markets by promising banks extra money to tide them through a likely severe year-end cash squeeze, mirroring action conducted around the turn of the millennium.

As fallout from the U.S. subprime mortgage collapse spreads and banks hoard cash to offset balance sheet strains, interbank lending rates in euros, dollars and sterling have surged to well above central bank targets again over the past week -- forcing the Fed and ECB to assure banks of available funds.

The ECB repeated a statement first issued late Friday of its intent to ease the year end strain, where two-month euro London interbank rates (Libor) are at their highest since 2001 and three-month rates marked their biggest one-day jump on Monday since the credit crisis erupted in August.

"The ongoing process of risk appraisal and repricing in financial markets could be more protracted than previously expected and could have a broader impact on financial markets and the economy," ECB Vice President Lucas Papademos said on Monday in a speech at the Cypriot central bank.

The Fed later echoed the ECB promise of extra funds and said it would conduct a series of term repurchase agreements extending into the new year, the first for about $8 billion set for Nov 28 and maturing on Jan 10, 2008.

"Given the high level of attention focused on the coming year end we hope to reassure market participants of our commitment to providing sufficient balances at that time by starting to provide those balances now," said a New York Fed official who declined to be named. Two-month and three-month dollar Libor rose to their highest in a month on Monday. At more than 50 basis points, the spread between three-month dollar Libor and the 4.5 percent Fed funds target rate was at the widest since the crisis began.

Continued...

/...

Highlights

Current:



30-day and 90-day vs.greenback:



30-day vs. Euro, Yen, UK Pound and Swiss Franc




Currency Comparison: http://members.shaw.ca/trogl/looniewatch.html

Detailed analysis: http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?r=CME_CD

Up-to-the-minute graph: http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=CME_CD.Y%24%24&v=s&w=5&t=l&a=1

Historical values http://www.x-rates.com/d/USD/CAD/data30.html

2007-10-16 Tuesday, October 16 1.0227 USD
2007-10-17 Wednesday, October 17 1.02712 USD
2007-10-18 Thursday, October 18 1.02743 USD
2007-10-19 Friday, October 19 1.03767 USD
2007-10-22 Monday, October 22 1.01926 USD
2007-10-23 Tuesday, October 23 1.03381 USD
2007-10-24 Wednesday, October 24 1.02987 USD
2007-10-25 Thursday, October 25 1.03381 USD
2007-10-26 Friday, October 26 1.03961 USD
2007-10-29 Monday, October 29 1.04745 USD
2007-10-30 Tuesday, October 30 1.04888 USD
2007-10-31 Wednesday, October 31 1.05307 USD
2007-11-01 Thursday, November 1 1.05296 USD
2007-11-02 Friday, November 2 1.06838 USD
2007-11-05 Monday, November 5 1.07101 USD
2007-11-06 Tuesday, November 6 1.0819 USD
2007-11-07 Wednesday, November 7 1.09075 USD
2007-11-08 Thursday, November 8 1.07492 USD
2007-11-09 Friday, November 9 1.06553 USD
2007-11-12 Monday, November 12 1.06553 USD
2007-11-13 Tuesday, November 13 1.03745 USD
2007-11-14 Wednesday, November 14 1.0408 USD
2007-11-15 Thursday, November 15 1.01999 USD
2007-11-16 Friday, November 16 1.02807 USD
2007-11-19 Monday, November 19 1.01636 USD
2007-11-20 Tuesday, November 20 1.01543 USD
2007-11-21 Wednesday, November 21 1.01071 USD
2007-11-22 Thursday, November 22 1.01071 USD
2007-11-23 Friday, November 23 1.01143 USD
2007-11-26 Monday, November 26 1.01245 USD


Current values

http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?r=CME_CD)

Market            Open   High    Low   Last  Change    Pct 
CD.Y$$ Cash     1.0134 1.0138 1.0120 1.0127 +0.0017 +0.17% 
CD.Z07 Dec 2007 1.0144 1.0144 1.0119 1.0132 -0.0012 -0.12%  
CD.H08 Mar 2008 1.0143 1.0143 1.0126 1.0128 -0.0020 -0.20% 
CD.M08 Jun 2008 1.0125 1.0130 1.0125 1.0148 +0.0022 +0.22% 
CD.U08 Sep 2008 1.0135 1.0135 1.0135 1.0135 -0.0013 -0.13% 
CD.Z08 Dec 2008 1.0115 1.0115 1.0110 1.0148 +0.0022 +0.22% 
CD.H09 Mar 2009 1.0927 1.0927 1.0927 1.0148 +0.0022 +0.22% 

Other combinations: (http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=currencies)

Market              Open    High     Low    Last   Change     Pct 
AUSTRALIAN $/CANADIAN $ (NYBOT:AS)
AS.Z07 Dec 2007  0.87540 0.87540 0.87540 0.86225 +0.00495  +0.57%  
AUSTRALIAN $/US$ (NYBOT:AU)
AU.Z07 Dec 2007  0.88150 0.88150 0.87600 0.87600 +0.00165  +0.19%  
CANADIAN $/JAPANESE YEN (NYBOT:HY)
HY.Z07 Dec 2007   109.02  109.02  109.02  109.36 -0.84     -0.77%  
EURO/AUSTRALIAN $ (NYBOT:RA)
RA.Z07 Dec 2007   1.6845  1.6845 1 .6845  1.6845 -0.0128   -0.75%  
EURO/BRITISH POUND (NYBOT:GB)
GB.Z07 Dec 2007   0.7185  0.7187  0.7185  0.7187 -0.0023   -0.32%   
EURO/CANADIAN $ (NYBOT:EP)
EP.Z07 Dec 2007   1.4666  1.4666  1.4666  1.4666 +0.0030   +0.20%  
EURO/JAPANESE YEN (NYBOT:EJ)
EJ.Z07 Dec 2007   160.33  160.33  160.33  160.33 +0.23     +0.14%   
EURO/US$ (LARGE) (NYBOT:EU)
EU.Z07 Dec 2007  1.48320 1.48360 1.48320 1.48410 -0.00075  -0.05%  
EURO/US$ (SMALL) (NYBOT:EO)
EO.Z07 Dec 2007  1.44620 1.46620 1.44620 1.48410 -0.00075  -0.05% 

Blather (from http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?r=CME_CD)

The December Canadian Dollar was slightly higher overnight as it extends last week's trading range above the 38% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at 100.75. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off this month's high, the 50% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at 97.76 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 104.23 would temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 102.10. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 104.23 First support is the 38% retracement level crossing at 100.75. Second support is the 50% retracement level crossing at 97.76


Analysis

Sorry I'm late. High level meetings all morning. Would you like my headache? I'm bored with it.

The bot's babbling nonsense. Its programming was never intended to deal with something like the mania two weeks ago. It's trying to chart "uncharted territory".

The loonie seems to be setting in nicely around US$1.01 which is probably about where it belongs. I've been calling for par but where it is would have nice psychological value and prevent any silly under/over par discussion based upon 4-digit percentage points.

psychologically easier to sell?

Citigroup Plans Cost Cuts After Mortgage Losses, Prince Ouster

By Bradley Keoun

Nov. 26 (Bloomberg) -- Citigroup Inc., the largest U.S. bank, is reviewing ways to cut costs as it seeks a new chief executive officer and grapples with mortgage writedowns that may lead to the first quarterly loss since at least 1998.

Executives at the bank ``are planning ways in which we can be more efficient and cost effective to position our businesses in line with economic realities,'' said Christina Pretto, a spokeswoman for the New York-based company. ``We are engaged in a planning process in anticipation of our new CEO.''

Former CEO Charles O. ``Chuck'' Prince III, who was criticized by investors including Saudi billionaire Alwaleed bin Talal for failing to rein in expenses, was forced to resign on Nov. 4 when the bank announced at least $8 billion of fourth- quarter writedowns on mortgage investments. Prince had promised to eliminate 17,000 jobs and pledged to trim annual costs by $4.6 billion, or 10 percent, by 2009.

Citigroup may cut as many as 45,000 jobs in the next two months, CNBC reported earlier today, citing unidentified people within the company. Citigroup spokeswoman Pretto said ``any reports on specific numbers are not factual.''

Citigroup fell 63 cents, or 2 percent, to $31.07 at 10:35 a.m. in New York Stock Exchange composite trading. The shares have lost about 44 percent this year.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ab9zmayErJ44&refer=home

http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idINN2640811720071126?rpc=611

WASHINGTON, Nov 26 (Reuters) - Economic globalization is increasingly being matched by greater antitrust enforcement as more nations scrutinize mergers and fight price-fixing.

For corporations it can mean more paperwork to complete mergers, as in the case of Google (GOOG.O: Quote, Profile, Research), which filed with Australia, Brazil, Europe and the United States to buy DoubleClick. Australia and Brazil have approved the deal while Europe and the United States are still considering it.

And there are more venues to battle rivals. Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.N: Quote, Profile, Research) failed to convince Washington to probe Intel (INTC.O: Quote, Profile, Research) for allegedly offering discounts to computer makers to keep them from using AMD processor chips. But Japan, South Korea and European Union have opened investigations.

Another consequence is that firms caught fixing prices face prosecution in more jurisdictions.

While the United States has encouraged other countries to create competition watchdogs, there are also worries in U.S. antitrust circles as the number of agencies grows.

India's new Competition Act, which has not yet been implemented, has raised eyebrows in Washington because of its low threshold for claiming jurisdiction on mergers. Further, approval for even noncontroversial deals could take 210 days.

And there is some fear in the United States that China will use its new law, which is expected to go into force next year, to protect domestic industry. "They could enforce it in a perfectly professional and responsible way, or they could really play games with it," said Barry Hawk, director of the Fordham Competition Law Institute.

/...

:scared:

Low 74.774 2007-11-26 15:18:46, 30 min delay
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=i

http://investing.reuters.co.uk/news/articleinvesting.aspx?rpc=401&type=allBreakingNews&storyID=2007-11-26T202926Z_01_NYH000594_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-FOREX-UPDATE-8-URGENT.XML

NEW YORK, Nov 26 (Reuters) - The dollar extended losses, falling to a fresh 2-1/2-year low against the yen on Monday, as U.S. stocks declined on credit market worries.

Financial services companies led the stock market's fall.

The dollar dropped to 107.52 yen <JPY=>, the lowest since June 2005, according to Reuters data.

/..

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a_eSyZb6zpDQ&refer=home

Nov. 26 (Bloomberg) -- Using the dollar to pay for purchases of currencies with higher yields is proving to be the most profitable trade in the foreign-exchange market.

A basket of currencies including the British pound, Brazilian real and Hungarian forint financed with dollars returned 17 percent this year, compared with 9 percent when funded in yen and 7 percent in Swiss francs, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Falling U.S. interest rates and increasing volatility in the yen and franc are making the trade even more appealing.

``With the dollar giving the appearance of being in free fall, it increases the attractiveness of using the currency to fund investments,'' said Avinash Persaud, chairman of London- based Intelligence Capital Ltd., which advises hedge funds that manage more than $89 billion. ``That process will only add more fuel to the decline.''

The last time the U.S. currency was used for so-called carry trades was in 2004, when the Federal Reserve's target rate for overnight loans between banks was 1 percent, said Niels From, a strategist at Dresdner Kleinwort in Frankfurt. Since then, it has weakened 18 percent on a trade-weighted basis, according to a Fed index. The International Monetary Fund says the dollar made up 64.8 percent of central banks' currency reserves in the second quarter, down from 71 percent in 1999.

/...

Dow 12,748.07 -232.81
Nasdaq 2,541.51 -55.09
S&P 500 1,407.46 -33.24
Oil $97.70 $-0.48
10 YR 3.85% -0.17
Gold $826.50 $1.80



My gawd!! Look at that 10-yr yield tank!

shit happens?

Market has been giving signals for a long time.

swaths of stocks whenever they don't think anyone is looking. Like at the end of the day, before a holiday, late on Friday, etc.

Today looked to be a flat day then... *flush*.

Seemingly nothing triggering it other than the lemmings following each other right off the cliff. Unfortunately, the ones starting the parade are floating to safety with those shiny golden parachutes...

And the descent continues. Fasten seat belts please. :rollercoasterdown:

And futures for the mornin' look damn dark already. Oy.

Julie--who survived the move and is posting from new home on son's computer

I read you were moving this weekend and felt for ya

be glad you weren't here, the temps plunged to 30 degrees and snowed on and off all weekend

:hi:

Could be a reason for some of the ugliness today, or the dark outlook for tomorrow.



Nice to see you made it through the move all in one piece Julie.

Congrats on surviving the move... :) :thumbsup:

Dow 12,743.44 237.44 (1.83%)
Nasdaq 2,540.99 55.61 (2.14%)
S&P 500 1,407.22 33.48 (2.32%)
10-Yr Bond 3.847% 0.165

NYSE Volume 3,731,710,000
Nasdaq Volume 2,033,180,500

4:25 pm : For a brief period today, there was a twinge of optimism that the stock market would be able to score back-to-back gains. Reports of stronger than expected retail traffic over the Thanksgiving holiday contributed to that view. However, it wasn't long before concerns about the financial sector (-4.1%) took hold again and knocked the market down to size.

At the end of the day, the stock market relinquished everything it gained in Friday's shortened session, and then some, and returned to negative territory for the year.

Several factors combined to take the financial sector sharply lower.

UBS downgraded Freddie Mac (FRE 24.50, -1.97) and Fannie Mae (FNM 28.92, -3.28) to Neutral from Buy, CNBC reported that Citigroup (C 30.70, -1.00) is on the verge of a massive layoff announcement that could include as many as 45,000 positions, or nearly 15% of its current workforce, and Senator Charles Schumer reportedly urged regulators to examine the risks involved with the increased lending by the Federal Home Loan Bank of Atlanta to Countrywide (CFC 8.64, -1.01).

The latter report accelerated the selling in the financials as it evoked lingering concerns about Countrywide's liquidity position and fueled fears about the ramifications for Countrywide in the event that source of funding is diminished.

In essence, the enduring sense of uncertainty regarding the mortgage market triggered another broad-based sell-off that saw selling intensify at the end of the day and left the indices at, or near, their worst levels of the session at the closing bell.

Every sector traded lower with all but the defensive-oriented utilities sector (-0.7%) losing more than 1.0%.

Telecom services (-3.1%) followed the financial sector as a loss leader. Energy (-2.8%), technology (-2.5%) and consumer discretionary (-2.3%) also suffered sizable losses.

Despite a report from ShopperTrak RCT that sales rose 8.3% versus last year on the day after Thanksgiving, and 7.2% in the two-day period following Thanksgiving, retailers were not spared in today's sell-off. The homebuilders, though, were the biggest pocket of weakness in the discretionary sector. The S&P industry group plunged 7.2% following some negative comments out of Citigroup with respect to the near-term outlook.

By and large, there was little that worked in the stock market as a risk averse mindset took hold.

The risk aversion was plain to see in the Treasury market, which rallied sharply as losses in the stock market compounded. The 10-year surged more than a point and its yield dropped to 3.84%.

Separately, the dollar index (-0.3% to 74.859) lost further ground Monday. Its weakness, though, didn't help commodities much as slowdown concerns tempered buying efforts. Oil prices slipped 0.5% to $97.70 amid reports that Saudi Arabia has increased its production.DJ30 -237.44 NASDAQ -55.61 SP500 -33.48

3:30 pm : Equities extend their late-day sell-off as the major indices hit fresh session lows. No particular news item triggered the selling and bonds continue to rally in a flight to quality. The S&P 500 is now trading slightly below the unchanged mark for the year.

The latest selling pressure has been widespread, but once again the financial sector (-3.5%) is leading the way, giving up all of its advance on Friday and then some. Financials are the worst performing sector year-to-date, with consumer discretionary coming in second.

Tomorrow, the Conference Board will release the November Consumer Confidence reading at 10:00 ET. Economists expect the number to come in at 91.5.DJ30 -173.45 NASDAQ -43.83 SP500 -25.63 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2166/845/1.51 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2270/1031/971 mln

3:00 pm : The major indices drop to minor new session lows following a new wave of broad-based selling interest. Only the utilities sector remains in positive territory (+0.7%). The sector was the main laggard last Friday. Meanwhile, Treasuries have hit new highs.

In currency trading, the DXY Index has slipped 0.22%. The weakness in the dollar has not supported commodities this session, as indicated by the 0.4% decline in the CRB Index.DJ30 -74.30 NASDAQ -20.67 SP500 -13.49 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1976/1004/1.33bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2014/1270/859 mln

2:30 pm : For now, selling pressure has eased as the major indices trade slightly above their worst levels of the session. Five of the ten economic sectors are posting gains, but the heavily weighted financial (-2.3%), tech (-0.6%), and energy (-1.0%) sectors are keeping the broader market in the red.

Investors continue to show risk aversion. Defensive oriented stocks are outperforming, the small-cap Russell 2000 Index is underperforming the S&P 500, and the 10-year note is up 27 ticks.DJ30 -37.23 NASDAQ -14.11 R2K -1.1% SP500 -9.19 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1972/1001/1.22 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2024/1233/770 mln

2:00 pm : The major indices trade near their worst levels of the session. Financials (-2.4%) deserve most of the blame for the recent decline, led by a sell-off in Fannie Mae (28.81, -3.38) and Freddie Mac (23.34, -3.11). The breadth of the market is somewhat bearish. Decliners outpace advancers at the NYSE by a 18-to-14 margin, while the Nasdaq Composite clocks in at 18-to-11.

Separately, crude oil has pared some of its intraday losses, and is now only down 0.4% to $97.86.DJ30 -51.40 NASDAQ -15.96 SP500 -11.29 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1805/1141/1.09 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1871/1368/707 mln

1:30 pm : The stock market is back on the decline as financials (-2.2%) continue to falter. As stocks dip, buying interest picks up in the Treasury Market. The 10-year note is now up 15 ticks.

Regarding the S&P 500, Cisco Systems (CSCO 27.69, -1.00) is the main laggard. Morgan Stanley said that Cisco's emerging market business is slowing and is an area of concern. The AP reports that Morgan Stanley still kept its Buy rating on Cisco.

Fellow Nasdaq components Apple (AAPL 176.01 +4.47) and Google (GOOG 687.15, +10.14) are providing leadership. DJ30 -25.36 NASDAQ -9.24 SP500 -7.66 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1765/1169/1.01 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1754/1470/652 mln

1:00 pm : The stock market has made a slight advance. The Dow continues to trade with small gains, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are trading with modest losses.

Twelve of the 30 components in the Dow Jones Industrial Average are trading higher, with airplane manufacturer Boeing (BA 92.04, +2.50) leading the way. Boeing was upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Wachovia.

Meanwhile, Citigroup (C 30.70, -1.00) is the main laggard after CNBC reported that the company will be making a larger number of layoffs. DJ30 +14.63 NASDAQ -3.83 SP500 -3.73 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1773/1141/902 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1791/1419/573 mln

that by 1-20-2009, the market will score within 100 points (+/-) of where they were 1-22-2001.

and that's looking on the bright side.
dp