STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday January 17

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday January 17, 2008

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 369 LONG DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2554 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2278 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 2239
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 10
Enron execs conveniently deceased = 3
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

---

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES

---

AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON January 16, 2008

Dow... 12,466.16 -34.95 (-0.28%)
Nasdaq... 2,394.59 -23.00 (-0.95%)
S&P 500... 1,373.20 -7.75 (-0.56%)
Gold future... 882.00 -19.40 (-2.20%)
30-Year Bond 4.32% +0.03 (+0.65%)
10-Yr Bond... 3.71% +0.01 (+0.30%)






GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie and Silver

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PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact actionpost@legitgov.org

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

---

Read more: du

BY CHRIS PUPLAVA

The Japanese yen has started rising against all of the world's major currencies as the yen carry trade may be unwinding. Traders have for years borrowed cheap yen at interest rates near 0% to reinvest those funds throughout the world. When the yen rises the carry trade becomes less profitable and traders will have to sell their assets to close their positions. The yen is not just rising relative to the U.S. dollar, nearing an all-time high, but also against strong currencies in commodity-rich countries such as Canada and Australia who are benefiting from high commodity prices.

-charts-

This puts added selling pressure on global capital markets and was seen in last year’s sell-off in February and last summer’s market swoon. Markets did not stabilize until the yen weakened. It is no coincidence that the S&P 500 is breaking down at the same time the yen is breaking out. There truly seems to be shift in the undercurrents of capital markets, and a rising trend in the yen and VIX seem to be suggesting that this time is different.

......
Stagflation = Stagnation + Inflation

STAGNATION

Stagnation, or economic growth less than 2-3%, is clearly upon us with rising unemployment, decelerating retail sales, and a housing market in complete disarray. The economic sentiment turned sharply lower in the last few months of 2007 as both consumers and businesses became more pessimistic about the present situation and future. The CFO survey for December hit a record low and the CEO survey released yesterday showed a new low for the current expansion. Here was the main headline from the CFO survey along with the summary of findings. (Click here for report). Note the word “stagnate” in the headline and how employees are cashing out 401(k) accounts to pay for mortgages! (Words in bold for emphasis.)

......
Things will get worse before they get better as homeowners cut back spending as they are now feeling the negative side of the wealth affect from falling home prices. Consumer delinquency rates are likely to continue to rise into the end of the year before cresting late in the fourth quarter and into the first quarter of 2009. These timelines were arrived from the relationship between consumer delinquency rates with the Fed funds rate and employment growth, both of which have correlation coefficients 87% and 91% respectively.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

8:30 AM Housing Starts Dec
Briefing Forecast 1160K
Market Expects 1150K
Prior 1187K

8:30 AM Building Permits Dec
Briefing Forecast 1150K
Market Expects 1140K
Prior 1162K

8:30 AM Initial Claims 01/12
Briefing Forecast 335K
Market Expects 335K
Prior 322K

12:00 PM Philadelphia Fed Jan
Briefing Forecast 2.0
Market Expects -1.5
Prior -1.6

http://biz.yahoo.com/c/e.html

01. U.S. Dec. housing completions fall 8% to 1.30 million
8:30 AM ET, Jan 17, 2008 - 1 minute ago

02. U.S. 2007 building permits fall 25% to 12-year low
8:30 AM ET, Jan 17, 2008 - 1 minute ago

03. U.S. Dec. West housing single-family starts at record low
8:30 AM ET, Jan 17, 2008 - 1 minute ago

04. U.S. 2007 housing starts off 25% to 15-year low
8:30 AM ET, Jan 17, 2008 - 1 minute ago

05. U.S. Dec. building permits fall 8% to 1.07 million pace
8:30 AM ET, Jan 17, 2008 - 1 minute ago

06. U.S. Dec. housing starts fall 14% to 1.01M v. 1.12M expected
8:30 AM ET, Jan 17, 2008 - 1 minute ago

07. U.S. 4-wk. avg. initial jobless claims dip 11,750 to 328,500
8:30 AM ET, Jan 17, 2008 - 1 minute ago

08. U.S. continuing jobless claims rise 66,000 to 2.75 mln
8:30 AM ET, Jan 17, 2008 - 1 minute ago

09. U.S. weekly initial jobless claims fall 21,000 to 301,000
8:30 AM ET, Jan 17, 2008 - 1 minute ago

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7BB4C27B5A%2DDBFE%2D44FC%2D97AE%2DFE7CD37F6E0A%7D&siteid=mktw




The fun continues on!

Setting the economic agenda, respectively, were Gerald Ford, Ronald Reagan and George Bush (Sr.).

U.S. weekly initial jobless claims fall 21,000
Continuing claims trend reaches highest level in more than two years

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/us-initial-jobless-claims-down/story.aspx?guid=%7BEFF8EDED%2D59DA%2D4C53%2DB65A%2D5FE15186BB94%7D

And does it depend on which State you're in?

My ex lost her benefits after a few months a couple yrs ago.

If you work for a non-profit that is very small and lose your job, well, tough. They aren't required to pay unemployment insurance. (as I found out in a most painful manner a few years ago)

So people like that aren't even listed in the tally.

Folks who work for a "President's Discount" (paid under the table) also, aren't counted. So yard workers, day labor, house cleaners, all invisible. Get fired? No unemployment benefits. If you don't work long enough at that particular job, you don't qualify. You are, according to the government, not unemployed.

But for those meeting all the requirements, I think Roland is correct, 6 months is the maximum to be listed on the rolls.

So as you can see the jiggered numbers are VERY low.


My Favorite Master Artist: Karen Parker GhostWoman Studios

ie. if you've no unemployment insurance claim (but, even so are, um, not working 'officially'), then according to these statistics you either don't exist, or you're counted as not interested in looking for work, or you're actually counted as not being unemployed.

Jiggered, indeed.

I'll have to look when I've time to see what ShadowStats has to say on this (like, here: http://www.shadowstats.com/article/54 ). But I have to go and do another quick job right now.

03. U.S. Jan. Philly Fed below consensus -1.0
10:08 AM ET, Jan 17, 2008 - 6 minutes ago

04. U.S. Jan. Philly Fed -20.9 vs. -1.6 in Dec.
10:08 AM ET, Jan 17, 2008 - 6 minutes ago

:wow:

SINGAPORE - Oil prices rose Thursday after declining sharply in the previous session on an unexpected increase in U.S. crude inventories last week.

Crude oil stockpiles rose 4.3 million barrels last week, the first increase since the week ended Nov. 9, the U.S. Energy Department's Energy Information Administration said in its weekly inventory report Wednesday. Analysts surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires had on average expected a decline of 300,000 barrels.

Stocks of gasoline and distillates, which include heating oil and diesel fuel, rose last week roughly in line with expectations.

Light, sweet crude for February delivery rose 45 cents to $91.29 a barrel in Asian electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange by late afternoon in Singapore.

The contract dropped $1.06 to settle at $90.84 a barrel Wednesday after the petroleum supply report was released.

Some of the surprise jump in oil supplies was due to crude imports, which rose last week an average of 583,000 barrels a day to 10.4 million barrels a day. Some analysts have expected such an increase, speculating that many companies kept some oil tankers out to sea at the end of last year to reduce their inventory tax burdens.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

HOUSTON - Historic oil prices and $3-a-gallon gasoline have been contributing to fears of a recession, but they've yet to cause the hue and cry that some might expect. Americans may simply be growing more accustomed to high fuel costs, analysts say.

All that may change beginning Friday, when oilfield services giant Schlumberger Ltd. kicks off earnings season for the oil sector. Companies may not post record profits, but certainly may report big enough earnings to raise some eyebrows.

Given the weakening economy and prospects for $4-a-gallon gasoline, hefty oil profits are almost sure to renew debate over whether Big Oil is profiting at the expense of most Americans.
......

Exxon Mobil, the world's largest publicly traded oil company, has offered no guidance for its upcoming report, expected Feb. 1. But Wall Street analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial predict the company to top its year-ago result and post quarterly revenue of $112.7 billion, a 25 percent jump from the fourth quarter of 2006.

Exxon Mobil's $39.5 billion profit for all of 2006 was the largest annual profit by a U.S. company.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080117/ap_on_bi_ge/big_oil_earns_1

a business man is going over his accounts. He sees there is a significant increase in the amount of pencils purchased.

he investigates and finds many pencils are being thrown out that could still be sharpened and used and they are not too short.

he immediately issues a memo to all employees telling them they have to use pencils until they have been sharpened level with the eraser.

his secretary points out that it doesn't save money in the long run, because the money saved from using stubby pencils is being spent on band-aids for blisters which erupt from using stubby pencils - and it's only pennies, while millions are being wasted in other areas.

the business man replies : pennies I understand, millions I don't

:rofl:

Thinking of gov't waste and how, at the lower end, some gov't low-paid salary worker might reject a food stamps claim or some health treatment to save a bit of money. In the meantime, $6 million flies out the window to a campaign contributor to get a defense contract.

Sorta like the GOP claims of voter fraud (I'm sure it happens but maybe at about 0.0001% of the voters) vs. real election fraud (Diebold, ES&S, "caging lists", etc.)

:donut: and lurkers. With Chopper Ben testifying before Congress that he will do just about anything to stimulate the economy-the American Consumer needs to stock up on cases of KY jelly. I guess while we are being corn rowed we should lie still and think of ethanol to paraphrase an old patriotic saying.

Oy vey, it's about to get ugly. I still think the market will slide down to the 12200 mark but a rate cut will stall it for a while (days only)-maybe into next week if the cut is this week. The time to worry about the economy is after the first few signs-when you can deflect the momentum with less energy. But one the momentum start-it takes Herculean effort to slow it down and then your fighting gravity so your chances are slim or none.

From our 'Turn Back the Hands Of Time' Stock Drop Pool-October seems to be the month of consensus.

Time the DJ IA will reach 10,578.24 (when Bush took office):

Prag.....9/5
Roland99.....7/28
GhostDog.....end of 2nd quarter (June?)
MsLeopard.....10/31
ProgressiveRealist.....4/17
Birthmark....10/10
AnneD....10/24

I'll post this pool bimonthly and you can change your guess say up until say...the Working Man's Holiday....Labour Day 9/1 or when the DJIA first hits 11500, which ever happens first.

Happy hunting and watch out for the bears.

:hangover:

All that remains to be seen is if the 'economic happy giddy' package will grease the skids or if it's strong enough
to hold up the elephant's backside for awhile.

Thanks for tracking the pool.

my reason- next round of real estate loan resets starts in May, with lag time ("duh, we just noticed") realization should be around mid/end of July, full impact in Aug.

pick a date in Aug.

right between Hiroshima and Nagasaki, and the day before my 50th birthday

(ya' win some, ya' loose some- Nixon formally resigned on my 16th BD)

Which FDR forced Stalin to agreed to during Yalta. It being the 90th Day after May 9, 1945 which was the day the German's surrendered. Stalin said as long as the German Army was fighting, he could NOT intervene in the war Against Japan, but he would do so within 90 days of Germany's surrender. Stalin kept his world, moving an entire army from around Berlin to Manchuria within 90 days, via ONE Railroad line, the trans-Siberian. Now one way Stalin did this was withdrew the troops WITHOUT Trucks and Tanks from Germany and armed them with new Trucks and Tanks as their crossed Russian to get to Manchuria.

Now, the big debate is why did Japan Surrender on August 15th, 1945? SIX days after Nagasaki and EIGHT days after Hiroshima. The Western view is it took Japan those 6-8 days to agree to Surrender given the power of the Atomic Bomb. The alternative theory is that the Russian Army had destroyed, for all practical purposes, the Japanese Army in Manchuria in those six days. Nothing was standing between the Red Army and Korea. Some Japanese units survived, but so divided that effective Resistance was impossible. The biggest impediment to the Red Army taking Korea was its own supply lines (Which kept up with the Russian pace of 10-12 miles a day, a normal pace for most armies). Thus the Japanese leadership was facing the prospect of the Red Army at its doorstep AND that the only remaining leader of national renown, NOT tied in with starting and fighting WWII, sitting safely in Moscow.

Thus the big Question what caused the Japaneses Surrender the Atomic bombings (Neither of which was as bad as the March 1945 Firebomb raid on Tokyo) or the prospect of COMMUNIST TROOPS on Japanese Soil by November 1945? The only thing that could Stop the Russians by August 15th was the US, if it had a free hand to occupy Korea, which meant a Japanese Surrender as soon as possible. The Japanese Surrendered and the US sent Troops into Japan and Southern Korea. When I was young, I liked the Atomic bomb theory, the older I get and the more I understand Japanese "Group Think", which was extremely strong during the 1930s and 1940s, I lean to the Russians. I believe the Japanese Right Wing were committed to fighting the Americans to the Death to show their superior over America, but the Communist represented a different threat. That threat being an internal revolt overthrowing the traditional Right wing Ruling Class. That was unacceptable and more feared than any American Occupation, so they surrendered.

Just a comment that August 8, is NOT necessary the middle of two things, but the date of the start of an event that ended WWII.

More on the Russian Invasion, Operation August Storm"
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_August_Storm

I say it'll hit 10,578.24 by August of 2008. A nice round year from the first wake up call for the MSM that something was wrong with the economy.

I think we'll see a bounce back up after the next round of rate cuts and all this happy talk about congress averting the coming recession/depression (ha ha ha) and then in say April/May a big slide downward will begin.

I don't envy the person who inherits this mess for their first year as president.

Pick a date too, makes it more like a pool. Remember you can change it as facts and trends emerge...good reasoning.

Just days after celebrating it the economy will be shouting it as it goes down, "Mayday, mayday mayday...!".

We have Black Friday, the day of the French Revolution, so Mayday is a natch. I had thought about that too.:evilgrin:

I was already thinking May 1st, May Day, the real Labour Day (Fête du Travail, Fiesta del Trabajador, etc.) in Europe. Miles's May 3rd is a Saturday, May 1st a Thursday (and a holiday in many countries but not in, eg. US or UK). Hmmm. Monday April 28th is the Orthodox and Coptic Easter Monday (Kyrie Eleison - Κύριε ἐλέησον): I'll go for your 'psychological' Black Monday crossing point on or before that date: 4/28 in the US idiom.

ed. - although the S&P is far more important, of course; and, hmmm yes, I think I'll play Miles's "One Down, One Up" (Live at the Half Note, with thanks to the American Federation of Musicians, Local 802) right now over dinner. :9

Heh, seems nobody noticed the joke on John (Coltrane) :evilgrin:

when the major party nominees are settled to eliminate the possibility of a progressive in the WH. That may be as early as Super Duper Tuesday.

and keep on sliding until this gang of oafs, thieves, religious lunatics, warmongers, and pirates is out of office, out of power and preferably into prison orange.

Face it, kids, the air's being let out of the balloon at a faster and faster rate, and soon everybody's going to hear the Bronx cheer it produces as the balloon slips completely out of control and flies around the room before deflating completely.

It will get better some years down the line if we get a government that isn't afraid to reinstitute stiff regulations, but it'll be a while. We need to learn to be generous with each other until that happens if we're to survive.

At least we old boomers will be long gone by the next time a bright new generation comes along, all primed and ready for the same old deregulation snake oil the GOP always sells.

your boomer lips to God's ear.

Below 12500, hell, below 12200. What are the stakes?

at my fav pub. I like a black and tan or maybe a wheat micro beer....
:toast::beer::beer::beer: Three's my limit:party:

hmm, where did it go?

edit: I think it went here...
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x3143616

when a thread is moved, but not told where


thanks for finding it

to bum fuck Egypt

WASHINGTON - Retailers, home builders and many manufacturers should brace for even more rough times ahead, a somber Federal Reserve suggested Wednesday amid growing fears that the U.S. might be sliding into recession.

The Fed's snapshot of business conditions showed a national economy losing momentum heading into the new year and a future riddled with uncertainty. The persistent housing slump and harder-to-get credit are making people and businesses ever more cautious, it said.

Separately on Wednesday, more big banks reported losses and said people were having trouble making payments for everything from credit cards to cars. Stocks were mostly down for the day, the Dow Jones industrial average declining 34.95 points, or 0.28 percent.

The Fed report was the unwelcome icing on a recent batch of economic indicators — ranging from a plunge in retail sales to a big jump in unemployment — raising concern that the country is heading for its first recession since 2001.

......
The economy probably grew at a feeble pace of about 1.5 percent or less in the final three months of last year and will stay weak in the first quarter of this year as consumers — major shapers of the nation's economic health — tighten their belts.

After retailers suffered their worst sales season in five years in 2007, "the outlook for 2008 among retail merchants was cautious," the Fed said in its report. And the outlook for housing remains gloomy: "weak during the first part of 2008."

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080116/ap_on_bi_ge/fed_economy

Wed Jan 16, 2:38 PM ET

WASHINGTON (AFP) - The US subprime mortgage crisis will likely produce deeper problems than expected because not all market players have "come out clean" about their losses, the International Monetary Fund said Wednesday.

"Some analytical work modeled on conservative assumptions suggests that potential losses may be higher and further capital injections are likely," Manmohan Singh and Mustafa Saiyid wrote in an IMF report.

"Most banks in the United States have not yet marked their assets to genuine transaction prices," the report said.

Some market participants "have come out clean such as a few US hedge funds that have written off the value of all junior notes issued by its structured vehicles," the report said.

/... http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20080116/bs_afp/imffinancepropertybankrating_080116193801;_ylt=AqbsMo4zRHlq44b9gp7F_gWmOrgF

:eyes:

I'm tellin' ya, these guys are geniuses!

WASHINGTON - Faced with a deteriorating economy, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke has indicated he is open to congressional and White House efforts to develop a rescue package to avert a recession.

The fragile state of the economy has gripped Wall Street and Main Street and is a rising concern among voters. The situation has galvanized politicians — including those vying to be the next president — and poses the biggest test to Bernanke, who took over the Fed nearly two years ago.

Much attention will be focused on Bernanke's testimony Thursday before the House Budget Committee for insights into what can be done to help blunt the ill effects of a deep housing slump and a credit crisis. The big worry is that those problems will force consumers to clamp down on their spending and businesses to put a lid on hiring, sending the economy into a nosedive.

Joint Economic Committee Chairman Sen. Charles Schumer, D-N.Y., said he had spoken with Bernanke on Monday and that the Fed chairman was "generally supportive" of lawmakers and Bush passing a stimulus bill.

"He said that while he wasn't going to endorse a specific plan, if an economic stimulus package was properly designed and enacted so that it enters the economy quickly, it could have a very positive effect on the economy," Schumer said.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080117/ap_on_go_co/economy_stimulus

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Ben Bernanke has tried hard not to follow his predecessor Alan Greenspan into the political arena by commenting on fiscal policy, but the Federal Reserve chief will find it difficult to stay above the fray this week.

Bernanke testifies to Congress on Thursday amid a chorus of election year demands for action to stop the U.S. economy from being tipped by a slumping housing market into recession.
......

An aide to a Republican member of the House of Representatives Budget Committee, which will hear from Bernanke at 10 a.m. (1500 GMT) on Thursday, said the Fed chief would be quizzed about the risks of a "quick band-aid solution" bringing "significant harm to the longer-term budget outlook."

But he will also be asked about potential benefits of getting a stimulus package together quickly.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080117/bs_nm/usa_fed_dc_2

They should really look into getting a George Foreman(tm) grill... I worry about their cholesterol!

(NYT; DU Thread: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x3143616 )

ed. Ah, right, radfringe was already onto this #5.

He'll certainly know how to clean it up, right?

This isn't a crisis of liquidity or debt or an economy needing to be artificially stimulated. This is a crisis of maldistribution, something every economic historian has been predicting for many, many years, but which was forestalled by easy to obtain and seemingly endless consumer credit.

Now we have a consumer class drowning in debt. There is nothing left but for the consumer economy to collapse, and that, kiddies, is a depression.

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Shoppers faced moderate price rises in December, but that capped a year in which prices soared at the sharpest rate in 17 years, pressuring households also dealing with a steep housing downturn and tighter credit.

The Labor Department said on Wednesday its Consumer Price Index rose 0.3 percent in December, less than half November's 0.8 percent jump. For all of 2007, the CPI rose 4.1 percent, well ahead of 2006's 2.5 percent gain and the steepest since 1990.

Separately, the Federal Reserve said output by the nation's mines, factories and utilities was flat in December and in 2007 posted its weakest gain since 2003.

The data, combined with a report on Tuesday showing a drop in December retail sales, "underlines our view that we're on the razor's edge here, that we could be headed into recession," said Mike Schenk, senior economist with Credit Union National Association in Madison, Wisconsin.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080116/bs_nm/usa_economy_dc

I think at this point we can safely say that we're in recession.

at McClatchy on inflation. It breaks it down pretty well.

Link: http://www.mcclatchydc.com/homepage/story/24890.html

:donut: :donut: :donut:

Hazardous weather calls for extra travel time. I'll check back when the day is done.

:hi:

Drive carefully! :hi:

Jan. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Asian stocks rose, led by technology companies and Japanese property developers, after Merrill Lynch & Co. raised its rating on Samsung Electronics Co. and UBS AG said a drop in real-estate companies was overdone.

Samsung, Asia's largest maker of flat panels, mobile phones and chips, jumped the most in six months. Mitsui Fudosan Co., Japan's second-largest developer by market value, climbed for the first time in five days. Uni-President Enterprises Corp., Taiwan's largest food maker that supplies instant noodles and drinks in China, plunged after the Chinese government imposed curbs on staple foods to control inflation.

``We've seen very heavy selling in the past few days and right now the market's taking a moment to pause,'' said Yuuki Sakurai, who helps manage the equivalent of $54 billion in assets at Fukoku Mutual Life Insurance Co.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed 1.2 percent to 146.72 at 4:46 p.m. in Tokyo, halting a two-day, 4.7 percent drop. Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Average advanced 2.1 percent to 13,783.45, rebounding from the lowest in more than two years.

China's CSI 300 Index tumbled 2.5 percent, paced by China Construction Bank Corp., after the government ordered banks to set aside more money in reserves.

Bank shares climbed elsewhere in Asia, led by National Australia Bank, after JPMorgan Chase & Co. reported a lower-than- estimated writedown and Wells Fargo & Co. posted results that topped analyst estimates.

... late edit to add these significant paragraphs:

China ordered banks late yesterday to increase their reserves for the 11th time in 13 months to curb inflation in the world's fastest-growing major economy. Banks must put aside 15 percent of deposits, the most in at least 20 years. The government also ordered suppliers of grain, oil, meat and other staples to seek approval for price increases. Inflation soared to 6.9 percent in November.

`Aggressive Steps'

Wilmar, which supplies half of China's edible oil, plunged 11 percent to S$4.33 in Singapore.

``China is taking aggressive steps to fight inflation, wounding food and raw material makers that are tied to Chinese demand,'' said Phil Chen, who manages $154 million at Grand Cathay Securities Investment Trust Co. in Taipei.

/... http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=a2sgfqKIeRRg&refer=asia

Asian markets rebound fizzles

By Andrew Wood in Hong Kong Thu Jan 17, 12:25 AM ET

Persistent worries about the state of the US economy overwhelmed an early rebound in Asian stock markets on Thursday, with many turning lower as afternoon trading began after morning gains driven by bargain-hunting and a firmer dollar.

In China, financial shares led a fall of over 3 per cent after the central bank late on Wednesday announced an increase in bank reserve requirements. Shanghai's composite index was down 3.5 per cent at 5,107.753 in the early afternoon, after recording its biggest fall in nearly two months the previous day.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slid 0.7 per cent to 144.03 by lunchtime in Tokyo, after earlier gaining as much as 1 per cent.

Spot gold rose by nearly half a per cent to $881.03 per ounce by lunchtime in Hong Kong, but was still well short of Monday's lifetime high of $914.

Japanese stocks were pushed lower as the yen strengthened slightly, sending exporters into retreat.

The broad-based Topix index dropped 0.3 per cent to 1,298.59 - its first fall below 1,300 since September 2005. The Nikkei 225 dipped into negative territory early in the afternoon session but then recovered to trade 0.8 per cent higher at 13,610.19.

The yen was trading around Y106.9 to the dollar after falling back into 107 territory overnight.

/... http://news.yahoo.com/s/ft/20080117/bs_ft/fto011720080033070570

European stocks staged a broad rebound on Thursday with the banking sector leading the gains, while French engineer Alstom reported strong sales growth.

In early trade the FRST Eurofirst 300 was up 1.3 per cent to 1,400.93, Frankfurt's Xetra Dax added 0.9 per cent to 7,537.04, the CAC 40 in Paris gained 0.9 per cent to 5,274.89 and London's FTSE 100 climbed 1.4 per cent to 6,022.9.

French engineering group Alstom led the pack after reporting better-than-expected third-quarter sales, up 20 per cent, and confirming its forecasts for its full financial year.

The company, which builds power stations and railways, said the third quarter included new orders of EU4.7bn for its Power Systems division. The shares rose 6.5 per cent to EU136.80.

Retailers received some welcome cheer after Dutch supermarkets group Super De Boer said consumer spending was strong over Christman and that it had seen no signs of a consumer slowdown. The company reported a 4 per cent rise in like-for-like sales in its fourth quarter.

/... http://news.yahoo.com/s/ft/20080117/bs_ft/fto011720080448080581

FRANKFURT (AFP) - The eurozone economy should grow by about its potential of two percent this year, ECB president Jean-Claude Trichet said late Wednesday, brushing off comments made earlier by board member Yves Mersch.

"You know the position of the (European Central Bank's) governing council, and of course last week's statement is still valid," Trichet told journalists on the sidelines of an event in Frankfurt.

Comments in an interview with Yves Mersch, Luxembourg central bank chief and a member of the ECB board, had suggested the European Central Bank might change tack and consider rate cuts, in stark contrast with its previously transmitted view.

The euro fell sharply in response.

Mersch said in an interview that "there are factors that mitigate inflation risks" and suggested the ECB could "look through" temporary high inflation to the growth risks beyond.

Such risks to the 15-nation economy of 320 million people have increased, he signalled.

Trichet said last week that while eurozone growth moderated in the fourth quarter, the ECB still expected the economy to expand by its potential rate, that is, the strongest pace at which it does not generate inflation.

He said at the time that the eurozone's economic fundamentals were sound, but cautioned that uncertainty about growth prospects remained high.

/. http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20080117/ts_afp/ecbeurozoneeconomygrowthforexmoneyforecast_080117083603

# Spain: Tax cuts and handouts Wed Jan 16, 8:55 PM ET
Of the main continental economies, Spain is showing characteristics closest to those of the UK and US.

# Italy: Conditions tighten Wed Jan 16, 8:55 PM ET
According to accepted wisdom in Italy, the relatively unsophisticated banking system will cushion it from the direct impact of the subprime crisis, while the economy will share the pain in the more general fallout.

# France: Concern creeps in Wed Jan 16, 8:40 PM ET
French preoccupation with the fall-out from the credit squeeze and the problems in the US economy is turning from schadenfreude at the flaws in Anglo-Saxon financial capitalism to mild concern about France's own economic prospects.

... The FTSE Eurofirst 300 closed 0.6 per cent lower at 1,374.36, Frankfurt's Xetra Dax lost 0.8 per cent to 7413.53 and the CAC 40 in Paris fell 1.3 per cent to 5,157.09.

Banks swung lower after Merrill Lynch said it lost almost $10bn in the fourth quarter. Commerzbank continued its bad run with a 3.6 per cent drop to EU21.90. UBS fell 2.7 per cent to SFr45.50 and France's Société Générale lost 2 per cent to EU93.00.

French companies had a tough session, with its alcohol-makers suffering big losses after Rémy Cointreau said its pre-Christmas sales unexpectedly stagnated. The cognac-maker's shares sank 11.1 per cent to EU38.73, dragging bigger rival Pernod Ricard down in its wake. The world's second-biggest alcohol maker lost 6.1 per cent to EU66.55.

"People expected much stronger sales of cognac. It's not that you, me, or Americans are drinking less cognac and other spirits, but wholesalers in the US are destocking because they are cautious about the future levels of consumption," said Severim Ble at Fortis.

/... http://news.yahoo.com/s/ft/20080117/bs_ft/fto011720081534570692;_ylt=AooDOruiJr6TlzcVug.qmGn2ULEF

It wasn't me either; but it is now. :deadlyserious:

British Land bucked the trend as the London market failed to keep early gains.
Shares in the property company advanced 5.2 per cent to 968p after Morgan Stanley (AMEX:MWD) upgraded the stock along with Segro, up 5.4 per cent to 499p and Brixton, 5.9 per cent higher at 323¾p, in a sector review.

"We expect UK property to climb by at least 20 per cent in the first six months of 2008 as the Bank of England is forced to cut UK base rates by around 100 basis points in an attempt to avert a recession," analyst Martin Allen said.

However, Mr Allen warned that once the rally ran its course, the UK property sector could halve in value in the following 18 months.

...

The FTSE 100, which recrossed the 6,000 level in morning trading, eventually closed 40.5 points, or 0.7 per cent, lower at 5,902.4. It was dragged down by another poor performance from the mining sector. Worries that a recession in the US would affect demand for metals saw Vedanta Resources fall 6.6 per cent to £17.60, while Kazakhmys shed 5.2 per cent to £11.31, and Xstrata lost 4 per cent to £30.97.

On a brighter note, Scottish & Newcastle rose 5.4 per cent to 765p after the brewer confirmed reports on FT Alphaville that it would talk to unsolicited suitors Carlsberg and Heineken about a potential offer priced at the 800p a share level that S&N had set for talks. Associated British Foods jumped 8.1 per cent to 838p as short sellers bought back positions after a better than expected trading statement.

/... http://news.yahoo.com/s/ft/20080117/bs_ft/fto011720081549410695;_ylt=AgBUA8V2KdBDcjVrEC7zrxL2ULEF

They're all over the shop these days. :silly:

DJIA INDEX 12,457.00 -33.00
S&P 500 1,370.10 -6.00
NASDAQ 100 1,879.25 -1.75


U.S. stock futures turn lower as Merrill reports loss
Bernanke testimony ahead; eBay upgraded to outperform
http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?column=Indications

that in essence, they lost that money too. If you devalue assets becase they aren't worth an amount you used in determining your wealth, then you aren't worth what everybody thought you were worth. My point is, this seems like a big deal too and I get the impression that writedowns are being downplayed. I look at that and see $24.6 billion in losses in 1 quarter.

Olafr

Does this mean those companies made $24.6 billion less in profits? Do the CEOs make less salary? Or were these billions inflated on the books such that they really didn't lose actual dollars?

http://www.companypay.com/

on edit:

http://www.companypay.com/executive/compensation/merrill_lynch_co_inc.asp?yr=2005

(and that was just 2005)

Of course its scansion is off-kilter.

And it sounds like eBay is set to outperform stock futures. :P

Market set to rise at open after claims data:
http://www.reuters.com/article/usMktRpt/idUSN1721016120080117

Anyone taking wagers?

Oops, the real lead hidden in the 2nd paragraph:

"Investors also were hopeful Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke might signal further interest rate cuts when he speaks later on Thursday."

It may be the jobless claims, but I'm thinking Bullion Bullish Ben Bernanke won't hurt.


My Favorite Master Artist: Karen Parker GhostWoman Studios

this just all makes me :puke:

only thing hyper about this economy.:eyes:

it is useful (again) and probably valuable too. Wonder if Nancy had any 'Just Say No' buttons printed up.

Best button I had was a WWII pin(that I gave to a kid I know will one day be President of the US). It read-Say it with Flyers (and a plane in the background) I also gave him another valuable pin. I think it might have been an early NATO pin.

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 76.131 Change -0.180 (-0.24%)

Will the Fed Save the U.S. Economy With a 75 bps Rate Cut?

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/topheadline/Will_the_Fed_Save_the_1200508281207.html

CREDIT MARKET: HOW IS IT DOING?

The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee has cut the fed funds rate by 100 basis points since September 2007 amid growing concerns about the health of the U.S. economy. Yet, despite the recent easing of financial conditions, traders remain pessimistic about the extent of the US subprime loan meltdown. Expectations for the outcome of the January 31 FOMC meeting changed dramatically on Tuesday after a key report on retail sales for December came in much weaker than expected. According to futures trading on the Fed Funds rate, traders are fully pricing a 50 bps rate cut and as much as 46 percent probability of a 75 bps rate cut to 3.75 percent.

<snip>

U.S. CONSUMER: HOW ARE THEY DOING?

Disappointing December Advance Retail Sales figures has clearly dented outlook on domestic consumption levels—especially as the US saw its worst year-end holiday spending period since 2003. The threat of further falls in critical consumer spending has subsequently fueled speculation that the Federal Reserve will continue to cut rates aggressively in order to stave off a broader economic recession, and prospects remain relatively dim for the domestic consumer. Given an ongoing housing recession and worsening job prospects, the Fed seemingly has little choice but to continue cutting rates through 2008.

...more...

US Dollar's Recovery Does Not Equal a Bottom

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/bio1/US_Dollar_s_Recovery_Does_Not_1200522324777.html

We are finally seeing cohesive price action in the currency markets as the US dollar recovered against every major currency. Stronger economic data has curbed expectations for a 75bp rate cut, leaving 50bp of easing the only realistic possibility. Unlike producer prices, consumer price growth was stronger than expected last month with the annualized pace of core prices rising from 2.3 to 2.4 percent. Industrial production was flat and net foreign demand for US securities increased $90.9 billion in November. Although both numbers represented a slowdown from the prior month, they soundly beat market expectations. Even the Beige book report contained silver linings. The various Fed districts acknowledged the weakness of holiday sales, but on balance, they all felt that economic activity has increased modestly and the labor market remains tight. With this in mind, it will certainly be interesting to see if Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke shifts his tone at tomorrow’s Congressional testimony. The last time he spoke, Bernanke was decidedly bearish, triggering a sharp sell-off in the US dollar. In addition to the comments from the Fed Chairman, we are also expecting housing starts, building permits and the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index. These are the most vulnerable sectors of the US economy which suggests a slim chance for dollar positive numbers. Although we still believe that the US needs a 75bp rate cut, Bernanke lacks the shock factor of some of his predecessors which means that 50bp is all that we will most likely get. However even if 50bp is under delivering, it is important to realize that this would take US rates down to 3.75 percent, which is 25bp less than the Eurozone’s interest rates and 50bp less than Canadian rates. Therefore when the “cross” happens, we could actually see the EUR/USD rally and USD/CAD sell-off as funds that only hold interest bearing positions readjust their exposure.

...more...

1930, here we come!

Our futures will be marked by these foolish terms by which lenders issued loans. Perhaps a credit score of 500 will someday be considered "good"- given the thrashing some people have and will endure through circumstances beyond their control.

(bookes) and now the cut loose(employees).

Wall Street can feel the money in their mattresses already.

Dow 12,508.51 42.35 (0.34%)
Nasdaq 2,407.17 12.58 (0.53%)
S&P 500 1,376.71 3.51 (0.26%)
10-Yr Bond 3.738% 0.026

NYSE Volume 68,259,046.875
Nasdaq Volume 48,098,625

09:14 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +5.6. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +12.3.

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +7.0. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +15.8. S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures are now pointing to a higher start. The better than expected jobless claims reading is fueling the buying interest, and is offsetting the lower than expected housing starts and building permits numbers. There are a couple of potentially market-moving events left on the agenda today. Fed Chairman Bernanke will testify on the economic outlook before the House Budget Committee at 10:00 ET and the Philadelphia Fed Index is set for release at 12:00 ET.

08:32 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -2.6. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +2.8. Futures shed a few points and then regain some ground on a better than expected jobless claims reading. Jobless claims for the week ended Jan. 12 fell to 301K, compared to the prior reading of 322K claims. Economists expected 331K claims. Separately, Dec. housing starts came in at 1006K and building permits came in at 1006K. Economists expected 1145K starts and 1135K permits.

Dow 12,439.25 26.91 (0.22%)
Nasdaq 2,401.34 6.75 (0.28%)
S&P 500 1,370.02 3.18 (0.23%)
10-Yr Bond 3.719% 0.007

NYSE Volume 598,225,875
Nasdaq Volume 297,173,593.75

02. Bernanke advises Congress to think carefully on stimulus
10:00 AM ET, Jan 17, 2008 - 4 minutes ago

03. Bernanke: Fiscal plan shouldn't hurt long-run budget
10:00 AM ET, Jan 17, 2008 - 4 minutes ago

04. Bernanke repeats speech from last week
10:00 AM ET, Jan 17, 2008 - 4 minutes ago

05. Bernanke repeats substantive rate cuts coming
10:00 AM ET, Jan 17, 2008 - 4 minutes ago

Must've put on the wrong suit this morning... Still had that speech in his pocket. :rofl:

01. <$INDU> Dow industrials shed 84 points to 12,384 as Bernanke talks
10:22 AM ET, Jan 17, 2008 - 32 seconds ago

Thanks for your cooperation.

from my hubby: If you can't stand the heat, get out of the frying pan.

Now, How do I nominate your post for a DUzy?

The fact you replied is sufficient reward for me. :7

Index Last Change % change
• DJIA 12447.14 -19.02 -0.15%
• NASDAQ 2395.92 +1.33 +0.06%
• S&P 500 1367.46 -5.74 -0.42%

Dow 12,318.78 -147.38 -1.18%
;-)

Dow 12,391.86 74.30 (0.60%)
Nasdaq 2,384.44 10.15 (0.42%)
S&P 500 1,361.05 12.15 (0.88%)
10-Yr Bond 3.719% 0.007

NYSE Volume 871,002,312.5
Nasdaq Volume 442,739,718.75

10:00 am : The stock market is holding onto slight gains, with six of the ten sectors in the green. The market's attention will soon turn to Fed Chairman Bernanke, who is set testify before the House Budget Committee as this comment gets posted.

Financials (-0.8%), which provided leadership yesterday, is currently the main laggard. Merrill Lynch's (MER 53.01, -2.08) shares have shed 3.8% on the larger than expected loss.

Meanwhile two of yesterday's beaten down sectors, energy (+1.6%) and tech (+0.9%), are providing leadership. Tech is getting a boost from Microsoft (MSFT 33.77, +0.54), after Goldman Sachs added the company to a list of preferred stocks, according to the AP. Energy is benefiting from a 1.3% rebound in energy prices.

The strength in tech is aiding the Nasdaq's outperformance the S&P 500.DJ30 +45.60 NASDAQ +20.84 SP500 +3.47 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 921/1341/157 mln

:eyes:

Index Last Change % change
• DJIA 12363.49 -102.67 -0.82%
• NASDAQ 2377.75 -16.84 -0.70%
• S&P 500 1357.26 -15.94 -1.16%

Looks like Bernanke really stirred it up this time

:crazy:

The bush and go along Dems said they were going to stimulate us with a middle class Tax rebate. Remember the last Tax rebate of the last bubble pop? You aren't getting any extra money. Oh no, no, no, you will simply get your tax return money a few months early.

You will have to deduct it from your year end tax returns. See, this way the bush can get some of that money the IRS was going to give you anyway in 2009 and give it to you in 2008. It will keep the economy from exploding until he leaves office.

I would think the markets would love the sound of that?

"Shortly before the Fed chairman spoke, a Philadelphia Federal Reserve survey showed regional manufacturing activity weakened in January, falling sharply to a negative 20.9 from a revised reading of negative 1.6 in December. The weak report underscored the seriousness of the economic concerns that have in recent weeks drawn the focus of both Wall Street and Washington."

(Text borrowed from MSNBC.com *Different from MSNBC-TV*)

In which he declared: "Huh! How about that! Business spending and growth is on the ropes, too! Who'da thunk it!"

Confidence in Ben = Less than zero.

Can this guy really be as vapid and clueless as he claims? I really hope it's a charade, although what the point of such a charade would be, I don't know.

Seriously, he ought to be. Trotting out the "no one saw it coming" script... :eyes:

I find it more reassuring to think he's lying about that.

Because the possibility that he, with so much data and expertise at his disposal, didn't see the problems aproaching like a cresting wave... well that's a pretty terrifying possibility to consider.

You know, that "preserve and protect" one.

:scared:

the "protect and defend" one. To protect and defend the interests of WS.

that wouldn't wash with the *Co Base

06. Bernanke: We are not forecasting recession, but slow growth
10:25 AM ET, Jan 17, 2008 - 35 minutes ago

07. Bernanke: Fed sees below-trend growth into 2009
10:24 AM ET, Jan 17, 2008 - 36 minutes ago

Sure as hell looks like it . . .

Bet they are just waiting until after January 2009 to drop the boom on us.

Stop exaggerating Ben. :eyes:

I mean, in the scheme of things... What's that? The paeans would just throw it away on socialized medicine
or some other idiocy.

:sarcasm:

THEN! THEN! He'll plant the suggestion... "Why don't we just dump the SS escrow into the market? Vola! Problem solved!
*smirk*"

:scared:

So it's only going to add up to three S & L crises?

For a minute there I was worried.

Bring on the taxpayer bailout baby!

..."But I do say no more than ten to twenty million killed, tops."

:yourock:

:7

Thanks for providing the obligatory "Dr. Strangelove" quote htuttle.

Dow 12,340.57 125.59 (1.01%)
Nasdaq 2,379.40 15.19 (0.63%)
S&P 500 1,354.30 18.90 (1.38%)
10-Yr Bond 3.662% 0.05

NYSE Volume 2,025,267,500
Nasdaq Volume 1,043,422,750

11:30 am : Stocks were unable to maintain upward momentum as stocks go back fall back toward their session lows. Bernanke speech is over, as he now answers questions before the House Budget Committee. There will be more Fed speakers today. Dallas Fed President Fisher will talk at 12:30 ET, and Atlanta President Lockhart will speak at 13:15 ET.DJ30 -113.98 NASDAQ -9.93 SP500 -16.48 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1710/1043/887 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2173/799/507 mln

11:00 am : After dropping to fresh lows since the last update, the major indices have made a modest recovery effort. Financials are down 1.9% and are weighing on the broader market.

Bond insurer Ambac (ABK 6.88, -6.09) is getting hammered, which follows its 39% loss yesterday. This morning, Moody's put Ambac's Aaa credit rating under review for a possible downgrade. Yesterday, Ambac announced it is cutting its dividend, and is planning to raise $1 billion to offset its $5.4 billion pretax write-down. MBIA (MBI 10.32, -3.08) is also lower on the news.DJ30 -76.82 NASDAQ -7.28 SP500 -11.49 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1833/861/679 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2184/740/410 mln

It really may drop to 12200 buy the end of the week. I gotta go put another coat of polish on my crystal ball.....


Edited to add that you might owe me a beer before the end of the day Demeter:spray:

The tubes on the Internet don't hold water. I doubt that the Post Office will let me mail it.

I know! Gift card! What is a good place to buy beer where you are?

will taste just dandy;)

Jim Cramer's rant. Still mixing fact and fiction but very interesting to watch these people talk openly about some of this stuff. Unbelievable.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=624755222&play=1

At least they're talking about it.

Is this kind of stuff very unusual in (even fringe) MSM still?

Wow. Headed for 11,000 before we boot Stupid from office?

hoo-boy. Looks like the jig is up on Voodoo Economics.

to tell Santa what they really wanted was a Red Ryder Rate-cut.

Index Last Change % change
• DJIA 12352.11 -114.05 -0.91%
• NASDAQ 2383.68 -10.91 -0.46%
• S&P 500 1356.72 -16.48 -1.20%

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSWBT00819220080117

WASHINGTON, Jan 17 (Reuters) - The increase in gasoline prices in the past year have shaved a half-percentage point from U.S. economic growth and will drag on consumer spending, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said on Thursday

"That really is a drag on the consumer going forward. Along with housing, subprime issues, financial issues, that is another factor that is contributing to the slowing of the economy," Bernanke told the House of Representatives Budget Committee.

...more...

gee - I didn't see hide nor hair of this asswipe when BIG OIL was declaring record profits over the past 7 years.

:argh:

Index Last Change % change
• DJIA 12271.63 -194.53 -1.56%
• NASDAQ 2369.70 -24.89 -1.04%
• S&P 500 1348.41 -24.79 -1.81%

FUGLY. Soooo damned fugly.

Dow 12,253.34 -212.82
Nasdaq 2,362.05 -32.54
S&P 1,344.61 -28.59
10-Yr Note 105.00 +0.81

When do you stop taking bets Annie D? I might have get in on this action.


My Favorite Master Artist: Karen Parker GhostWoman Studios

Dow 12,249.52 216.64 (1.74%)
Nasdaq 2,362.28 32.31 (1.35%)
S&P 500 1,344.40 28.80 (2.10%)
10-Yr Bond 3.649% 0.063

NYSE Volume 3,682,433,750
Nasdaq Volume 1,899,827,875

2:30 pm : The stock market falls to its session low, as financials (-3.5%) continue to face selling pressure. Multi-line insurance is posting the largest loss of 5.1%. Retail REITs (+0.2%) is the only group in financials that is posting a gain.

Atlanta Fed Lockhart said additional interest rate cuts may be needed in the face of the recent economic weakness. He expects weak growth in the first half of 2008, followed by a gradual pickup.DJ30 -218.02 NASDAQ -32.38 SP500 -28.33 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2083/860/1.81 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2401/740/1.23 bln

2:00 pm : More choppy action as stocks pare some losses and then go back on the retreat. Tech (-0.4%) has made up a portion of its losses, and briefly touched positive territory.

Bonds have fared better than stocks in today's trade. The 10-year yield is trading near its lowest level since early 2004, aided by the weak Philadelphia Fed reading.

Lehman Brothers (LEH 55.69, -2.37) said earlier today that it is going to cut its U.S. residential mortgage origination resources and suspend its unit wholesale/correspondent lending activity.DJ30 -149.00 NASDAQ -15.68 SP500 -19.99 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1920/1014/1.66 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2340/775/1.11 bln

Dow 12,225.54 -240.62
Nasdaq 2,358.31 -36.28
S&P 500 1,341.92 -31.28
10 YR 3.63% -0.08
Oil $90.05 $-0.79
Gold $880.50 $-1.50


Whew...S&P really taking a beating.



Where is the support now??

your jock strap and my bra.......

:spray:


:rofl:

is that as the titanic is sinking i can still count on you guys to make me laugh.

:yourock:

The czar send out his tax collector and some henchman out to collect taxes.
The collector comes back with sacks of money and hands it to the czar.
"What were they doing when you took their money" he asked.
"They were crying" he said.
"They have more money-collect it" the czar ordered.
The tax collector came back after a few more days with even MORE bags of money.
"What were they doing" asked the czar, and again the tax collector said the villagers were crying.
"They still have money" he said, ordering the tax collector back to the village.
After a few more days passed, the tax collector, trembling with fear, produced only a handful of coins. He feared for his life.
"What were they doing after you collected the taxes"asked the czar.
"It was the strangest thing, everyone in the village started laughing" replied the tax collector.
"Good" said the czar, smiling,"you collected all the money."
Puzzled, the tax collector wanted to know how the czar knew he had all the villagers money.
"Because, they were crying because they had more to lose. And when they were laughing, they had nothing to lose".

*

First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1404.79. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1436.00. First support is the 75% retracement level crossing at 1373.10. Second support is the 87% retracement level crossing at 1335.80.

on the Turn Back the Hands of Time until Labour Day but if it keeps going like it is today, we all may be shorted. Demeter still may be buying me a cyber-beer on our side wager. It looks like it is testing the 12000-12200 range this week. You may have it drop and then con some more folks in the tent, but folks are getting spooked. I am reminded of the way the market drooped in the Depression-not all at once like we tend to think, but large leaps downward, after 10/24.

How long did it take to reach the bottom? Between this, the real estate implosion and the writers strike the future is not looking bright for LA employment. :o(

Index Last Change % change
• DJIA 12279.11 -187.05 -1.50%
• NASDAQ 2369.65 -24.94 -1.04%
• S&P 500 1348.71 -24.49 -1.78%

jock strap saves the day, but can AnneD's 18hr bra hold up?:spray:

You'll please note... It's only medium support.

Dow 12,238.31 227.85 (1.83%)
Nasdaq 2,371.29 23.30 (0.97%)
S&P 500 1,344.60 28.60 (2.08%)
10-Yr Bond 3.636% 0.076

NYSE Volume 4,143,005,500
Nasdaq Volume 2,144,046,000



edited to add numbers from a difference source because Yahoo Finance seems to be stuck

:shrug:

3:11 EST

DJIA 12274.64 -191.52
Nasdaq 2370.45 -24.14
S&P 500 1347.46 -25.74
Rus 2000 686.85 -13.06
10 Yr Bd 3.64 -0.09

Dow 12,191.32 -274.84
Nasdaq 2,353.06 -41.53
S&P 500 1,336.41 -36.79
10 YR 3.64% -0.07
Oil $90.13 $-0.71
Gold $880.50 $-1.50


Are we getting a little punch-drunk today??

:silly:

Dow 12,161.57 304.59 (2.44%)
Nasdaq 2,351.57 43.02 (1.80%)
S&P 500 1,334.10 39.10 (2.85%)
10-Yr Bond 3.64% 0.072

NYSE Volume 4,577,882,000
Nasdaq Volume 2,349,286,500

Dow 12,200.10 266.06 (2.13%)
Nasdaq 2,353.06 41.53 (1.73%)
S&P 500 1,339.41 33.79 (2.46%)
10-Yr Bond 3.64% 0.072

NYSE Volume 4,521,263,000
Nasdaq Volume 2,323,603,500

3:00 pm : Selling pressure eases as stocks bounce of their lows, but losses remain substantial. Stock market bulls do not have much to cheer about today. Bond investors are having a better day, as the 10-year note extends its gains, sending its yield down to 3.63%.

Market breadth is bearish. Decliners outpace advancers by 4-to-1 on the NYSE, and by 3-to-1 on the Nasdaq. New 52-week lows outpace new highs by 30-to-1 on the NYSE and by 17-to-1 on the Nasdaq. Volume is on the heavy side, as it was yesterday.DJ30 -188.59 NASDAQ -24.41 SP500 -24.73 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2266/704/1.99 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2577/568/1.36 bln

Dow 12,172.87 293.29 (2.35%)
Nasdaq 2,350.36 44.23 (1.85%)
S&P 500 1,337.07 36.13 (2.63%)
10-Yr Bond 3.64% 0.072

NYSE Volume 4,555,141,500
Nasdaq Volume 2,335,835,500

Dow 12,158.15 -308.01
Nasdaq 2,349.51 -45.08
S&P 500 1,333.66 -39.54
10 YR 3.64% -0.07
Oil $90.13 $-0.71
Gold $880.50 $-1.50


:wow:

Dow 12,176.69 289.47 (2.32%)
Nasdaq 2,353.10 41.49 (1.73%)
S&P 500 1,335.21 37.99 (2.77%)
10-Yr Bond 3.64% 0.072

NYSE Volume 4,650,513,500
Nasdaq Volume 2,369,318,500

interesting to note that the S&P is now at exactly its support number :eyes:

He got back in at 38.


DOH!


:|

Pony up soon. I have to go home and change my bra. I don't even want to think about Roland's wardrobe 'malfuncton'. :spray::rofl:

;)

:toast: :beer::beer::beer:
\
\And send email and I'll send you a gift card for Target!

I'm a cheap and easy date:spray:

windows before long.

GENEVA (AP) -- Swiss pharmaceutical maker Novartis AG on Thursday said its profit dropped 45 percent drop in fourth-quarter and cited restructuring costs and a weak performance in the U.S. market.

Total earnings attributable to shareholders dropped to $904 million (616.4 million euros) in the three months ended Dec. 31 from $1.65 billion in the same period a year earlier.

Novartis shares fell 3.4 percent to close at 59.20 Swiss francs ($54.25) on the Zurich exchange.

The company also announced on Thursday a new 10 billion Swiss franc ($9.04 billion) share buyback proposal, which will be put to shareholders at its next annual general meeting. Novartis also proposed to increase its dividend per share by 19 percent to 1.60 francs ($1.45) for 2007.

more...
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080117/earns_switzerland_novartis.html

OMAHA, Neb. (AP) -- A surge in stock trading last fall helped online brokerage TD Ameritrade Holding Corp. generate a 65 percent increase in its quarterly net income.

The Omaha-based company said Thursday that asset-based revenue also continued to grow and accounted for more than half of its revenue in the October-December period.

But some analysts questioned whether Ameritrade could replicate its results, and the company's stock suffered as concerns about the ongoing credit crisis hurt stock prices across the market.

Ameritrade's shares slipped 84 cents, or 4.4 percent, to $18.15 in afternoon trading.

more...
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080117/earns_td_ameritrade.html

or is this plunge the perfect excuse to send Congress into a panic to do so?

...to Gentle Ben.

Bart the Bear.:loveya: He's the John Wayne of the animal actors.

http://members.tripod.com/bartbear/index.htm

:hi:

DETROIT (AP) -- General Motors Corp. plans to reduce its annual U.S. labor costs by another $5 billion by 2011, the company said Thursday.

Chairman and Chief Executive Rick Wagoner said a good chunk of the reduction will come from the new contract agreement reached last year with the United Auto Workers.

The contract shifts the obligation for about $46.7 billion in retired UAW worker health care from the company to the union, with the company pouring billions into a trust fund run by the union. The trust, called a voluntary employees beneficiary association, takes over the health care obligation in 2010.

GM also anticipates that its spending on U.S. hourly and salaried pension and health care will drop from an average of $7 billion per year over the last 15 years to around $1 billion per year starting in 2010, the company said in a statement.

more...
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080117/gm_outlook.html

NEW YORK (AP) -- Microchip stocks fell Thursday as leading analog chip maker Linear Technology Corp. issued a lower-than-expected outlook for its third quarter.

Linear shares fell 73 cents or 2.5 percent to $28.13 in midday trading. Shares have traded in the last year between $27.42 and $38.84.

Oppenheimer & Co. analyst Rick Schafer said he is being "very stock selective" in 2008, given uncertainty about the economy and downbeat stock prices for analog chips.

He said he favored smaller names with strong potential such as Intersil Corp.

more...
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080117/semiconductors_sector_snap.html?.v=1

jumping in before the close. Bargain shopping.

NEW YORK (AP) -- The following are key metals settlement prices Thursday, compared with late Wednesday, on the New York Mercantile Exchange:

February gold $880.50, down $1.50 an ounce

March silver $16.010, up 11.5 cents an ounce

March copper $3.1820, up 9.5 cents a pound

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080117/metals_glance.html?.v=1

NEW YORK (AP) -- Shares of investment banks fell sharply Thursday after Merrill Lynch & Co. said it lost nearly $10 billion in the fourth quarter.

NEW YORK (AP) -- Shares of oilfield service providers fell Thursday amid concerns a slowing economy could erode demand for oil.

NEW YORK (AP) -- Shares of Dell Inc. jumped Thursday following reports that worldwide PC shipments grew at a steady pace in the fourth quarter, while Hewlett-Packard Co. edged slightly lower.

NEW YORK (AP) -- Investors sent solar-power stocks higher on Thursday, seeing the recent sell-off as a buying opportunity for major players.

more...
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080117/sector_roundup_banks.html?.v=1

NEW YORK (AP) -- Housing stocks waffled Thursday after the government reported a sharper-than-expected decline in new-home construction last month and signs of a recession mounted.

The Commerce Department's construction data including the headline-grabbing statistic of a 25 percent decline in home building in 2007 -- the biggest drop in 27 years. Starts slid 14 percent in December, more than Wall Street expected.

But the declines are seen by some as a necessary remedy to the sector's woes. The number of unsold homes on the market far outstrips demand, causing prices to decrease. With fewer homes being built, that imbalance is slowly moving toward equilibrium, so the argument goes.

"We see the sharp reduction as a function of continued tightening by lenders and as a positive in helping to work through the oversupply," Banc of America Securities analyst Daniel Oppenheim said in a note.

more...
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080117/homebuilders_sector_wrap.html?.v=1

WASHINGTON (AP) -- The prolonged slump in housing pushed construction of new homes in 2007 down by the largest amount in 27 years with the expectation that the downturn has further to go.

The Commerce Department reported Thursday that construction was started on 1.353 million new homes and apartments last year, down 24.8 percent from 2006. It was the second biggest annual decline on record, exceeded only by a 26 percent plunge in 1980, a period when the Federal Reserve was pushing interest rates to post-World War II records in an effort to combat an entrenched inflation problem.

Many economists believe that the current slump in housing will rival the dive in the late 1970s and early 1980s when housing construction fell for four straight years before beginning to recover after the severe 1981-82 recession. For December, construction fell by a bigger-than-expected 14.2 percent.

In other economic news, the Labor Department said the number of newly laid off workers filing applications for unemployment benefits dropped by 21,000 last week to 301,000. That marked the third consecutive weekly decline and occurred even though the government reported that the unemployment rate increased sharply in December.

more...
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080117/economy.html

NEW YORK (AP) -- Treasury prices soared Thursday after a Philadelphia regional manufacturing survey showed an unexpectedly deep plunge in manufacturing that spelled recession to some economists.

The Philadelphia Federal Reserve's manufacturing index caved in 20.9 percent in January after dropping a much smaller 1.6 percent last month. Economists polled by Thomson/IFR had forecast a drop this month of just 1.3 percent. None of the analysts expected a larger fall than 7 percent.

"This data point screams recession," said T.J. Marta, fixed income analyst at RBC Capital Markets. "Although data has been grinding lower, this is the first true recessionary indication."

Tony Crescenzi, chief fixed-income analyst at Miller Tabak, agreed. "Rarely has the Philly survey been this weak without the economy in the throes of economic recession," he said.

more...
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080117/bonds.html?.v=4

Index Last Change % change
• DJIA 12159.05 -307.11 -2.46%
• NASDAQ 2346.90 -47.69 -1.99%
• S&P 500 1333.35 -39.85 -2.90%

Dow 12,159.21 -306.95
Nasdaq 2,346.90 -47.69
S&P 500 1,333.26 -39.94
10 YR 3.64% -0.07
Oil $90.13 $-0.71
Gold $880.50 $-1.50


Good thing our economy is robust and based on sound fundaMentals.

Fundi-Mentals to you Bub...and don't you forget it!

The fear is that if bond insurers lose their credit rating, the debt the companies insure would get a lower rating, which would spur another wave of write-downs at financial companies. As noted above, Merrill already has written down some of its hedges with bond insurers.

Some more food for thought:Big Shitpile Cometh

ZURICH, Jan 17 (Reuters) - Credit Suisse Group (CSGN.VX: Quote, Profile, Research) bucked a financial sector trend on Thursday, announcing a worldwide expansion plan for its flagship private banking arm.

In sharp contrast to layoffs elsewhere in a financial sector hard-hit by the credit crisis, Credit Suisse said the division was "well-positioned to excel in the current market conditions".

It aims to add 1,000 new bankers to serve wealthy clients by 2010, taking the total to around 4,100.

...

Wealth managers -- who invest money for rich people -- have largely escaped fallout from the credit crisis, which has seen the world's biggest banks come hat-in-hand to investors to shore up equity bases badly damaged by billions in writeoffs.

CONTRAST

Swiss rival bank UBS AG (UBSN.VX: Quote, Profile, Research), seen as Europe's biggest casualty of the subprime crisis with $14.5 billion of writedowns, expects to face angry shareholders at an extraordinary meeting on February 27 to approve a 13 billion Swiss franc ($11.79 billion) capital injection by Singapore and an unnamed Middle East investor.

And banks including Citigroup (C.N: Quote, Profile, Research) and Merrill Lynch (MER.N: Quote, Profile, Research) have sought billions of dollars of emergency funding from wealthy sovereign funds. Credit Suisse, which has escaped the crisis relatively unscathed so far, said its expansion plans target Latin America, Europe, India, Japan, the United States and the Middle East.

Credit Suisse said it aimed to build a comprehensive wealth management operation in the United States, establish an onshore presence in Japan in 2008 and enter the onshore markets in Mexico and Brazil.

/... http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idINL1759611520080117?rpc=611&pageNumber=1&virtualBrandChannel=0

quick look here:

As soon as the word on Ambac hit the street, the stream of red turned into a torrent on Wall Street; and 18 hour bras and jockey straps started giving away here in the SMW thread.

love your sig line, nice modern twist:spray:

MBIA, Ambac Tumble, Default Risk Soars After Losses (Update3)

By Shannon D. Harrington and Christine Richard

Jan. 17 (Bloomberg) -- MBIA Inc. and Ambac Financial Group Inc., battered by losses from the collapse of the subprime mortgage market, fell the most ever in New York Stock Exchange trading on concern they will lose their AAA credit ratings.

New York-based Ambac dropped 52 percent and Armonk, New York-based MBIA fell 31 percent as Moody's Investors Service and Standard & Poor's increased their scrutiny of bond insurers. Credit-default swaps on both guarantors rose to records, signifying investors see a growing chance that the companies won't be able to pay their debt.

``Issuers and investors have to prepare themselves for the possibility of a downgrade,'' said Matt Fabian, an analyst with Municipal Market Advisors in Westport, Connecticut. Fabian said he still expects the companies to keep their rankings.

Ambac, which yesterday cut its dividend and ousted its chief executive officer after reporting greater-than-expected writedowns on the bonds it insures, said the Moody's decision was ``surprising.'' Losing the AAA stamp would cripple the bond insurers and throw doubt on the ratings of $2.4 trillion of debt the industry guarantees, causing as much as $200 billion in losses, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Moody's said today it may cut the rating MBIA depends on to sell bond insurance, after saying yesterday it may do the same with Ambac's.

MBIA, down 87 percent in the past year, dropped $4.18 to $9.22. Ambac plunged $6.73 to $6.24 and has now fallen 93 percent in the past 12 months.

/... http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=afPiWbgEN8qU&refer=home

NEW YORK (AP) -- Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. on Thursday said it would cease wholesale mortgage lending in the U.S. because of the continued housing slump, a move that includes 1,300 jobs cuts and a $40 million charge.

The nation's fourth-largest investment bank had set up a wholesale lending business to purchase loans made by others and then package them into bonds. But, as the bottom dropped out of the subprime mortgage market, the business triggered steep losses for Wall Street's biggest banks.

Lehman has eliminated about 2,500 jobs already from its mortgage business, folding most of the operations into its Aurora Loan Services unit.

"While it was necessary for us to structure our mortgage origination businesses in the U.S. to reflect the change in industry dynamics, we deeply regret the impact this action has on our people," said Ted Janulis, global head of mortgage capital for Lehman Brothers, in a statement.

more...
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080117/lehman_mortgage.html?.v=2

We were born before the wind
Also younger than the sun
Ere the bonnie boat was won as we sailed into the Mystic
Hark, now hear the sailor's cry
Smell the sea and feel the sky
Let your soul and spirit fly into the Mystic

And when that fog horn blows I will be coming home
And when that fog horn blows I want to hear it
I don't have to fear it
I want to rock your gypsy soul
Just like way back in the days of old
Then magnificently we will float into the Mystic
And when that fog horn blows you know I will be coming home
And when that fog horn whistle blows I got to hear it
I don't have to fear it
I want to rock your gypsy soul
Just like way back in the days of old
And together we will float into the Mystic
Come on girl...

http://youtube.com/watch?v=lJlD7WJVsI4
http://youtube.com/watch?v=uTd1-4_yIdg&feature=related
http://youtube.com/watch?v=VA9pyr3OKGI&feature=related
and also: http://youtube.com/watch?v=6TEv_5rnyDU&feature=related (Joe Cocker)

Ok. Enough FOGHORN.

Jan. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Japanese stocks fell for a third week after U.S. reports on home construction and manufacturing added to concern the world's largest economy is in a recession.

Sony Corp. and Canon Inc. paced declines among companies that rely on U.S. consumer spending. Inpex Holdings Inc., Japan's largest oil explorer, and Nippon Mining Holdings Inc. declined along with oil and metal prices on speculation demand for raw materials will wane as the global economy slows.

``It's unclear whether the U.S. economy can fend off recession,'' said Mitsushige Akino, who oversees $468 million in assets in Tokyo.

The Nikkei 225 Stock Average dropped 389.26, or 2.8 percent, to 13,394.19 as of 9:15 a.m. in Tokyo, taking its loss this week to 5.1 percent. The broader Topix index fell 40.82, or 3.1 percent, to 1,289.62.

/... http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601101&sid=at9cZ_EfnBC4&refer=japan

Jan. 18 (Bloomberg) -- The Bank of Japan will probably keep interest rates on hold next week and may acknowledge the economy isn't growing as fast as it has estimated.

Governor Toshihiko Fukui and his colleagues will leave the benchmark overnight lending rate at 0.5 percent on Jan. 22, according to all 37 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The rate, doubled last February, is the lowest among major economies.

Japan's expansion will keep slowing ``for the time being'' and the cycle of profits feeding into wages and consumption is ``weakening,'' Fukui and his deputy Toshiro Muto said last week. Some investors anticipate a rate cut as a housing recession in the U.S., Japan's biggest export market, slows demand and costlier oil and raw materials erode profits at home.

``The chance of a rate increase in 2008 has almost disappeared, while the possibility of a cut has risen to between 30 percent and 40 percent,'' said Takehiro Sato, chief Japan economist at Morgan Stanley in Tokyo.

/... http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=ahJEr2D2JL6Y&refer=asia

Jan. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Japanese stocks fell, dragging the Topix index below 1,300 for the first time in more than two years after U.S. reports on manufacturing and home construction added to concern the world's largest economy is in a recession.

Toyota Motor Corp. and Matsushita Electric Industrial Co. paced declines among companies that rely on U.S. consumer spending. Inpex Holdings Inc., Japan's largest oil explorer, and Nippon Mining Holdings Inc. fell along with oil and metals prices on speculation demand for raw materials will wane as the global economy slows.

``The decline in the U.S. manufacturing number was very big and immediately depressed investor sentiment sharply,'' Hideyuki Ookoshi, who helps oversee $365 million at Chiba-Gin Asset Management Co., said in an interview with Bloomberg Television. ``Concern the U.S. economy will worsen is increasing.''

The Nikkei 225 Stock Average fell 387.67, or 2.8 percent, to 13,395.78 at the 11 a.m. break in Tokyo. Only 10 of its 225 constituents advanced. The broader Topix index declined 33.62, or 2.5 percent, to 1,296.82, dropping below 1,300 for the first time since Sept. 9, 2005. All 33 industry groups in the benchmark retreated.

/... http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601101&sid=a1Vlp58XDEGI&refer=japan

HONG KONG (Reuters) - Asian stocks tumbled anew on Friday after the latest salvo of sour signals about the U.S. economy pummeled Wall Street, sending the benchmark S&P 500 (^SPX - News) sprawling 3 percent lower to a 15-month nadir.

Fears about a possible recession in the United States, Asia's biggest export market, also sent government bond surging to multi-year highs and pushed U.S. crude oil prices below $90 a barrel.

The dollar struggled near a 2- year low against the yen after U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke told lawmakers that more interest rate cuts may be needed to counter a worsening economic outlook.

Japan's benchmark Nikkei average (Osaka:^N225 - News) dropped 2.7 percent by 0140 GMT and MSCI's measure of other Asia Pacific stocks (^MIAPJ0000PUS - News) was down 1.7 percent. The Asia Pacific index is already down almost 10 percent since the start of 2008.

"It's a hopeless situation. Buying appetite is evaporating as more investors are turning pessimistic about the U.S. economy. Markets could continue to fall in the months ahead," said Kim Young-gak, an analyst at Hyundai Securities in South Korea.

...

"Japanese stocks are oversold, but we've got a typhoon, an earthquake and a tsunami coming at the same time."

/... http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/080117/markets_global.html?.v=1