Ocean currents may offset global warming over coming decade

Source: Guardian (UK)

Global warming is set to stall over the next 10 years as natural variations in ocean currents counteract man-made climate change.

Researchers modeling the climate of Europe and North America found that a major ocean current that brings warm water northwards is set to weaken, potentially offsetting temperature rises caused by human activity.

A team led by Noel Keenlyside at the Leibniz Institute for Marine Science in Germany focused on an ocean current known as the meridional overturning current or MOC. The current acts as a huge conveyor belt, bringing warm water into the North Atlantic and returning cold water to the south.

Scientists believe the ocean current strengthens and weakens on a natural cycle with a 70 to 80-year period. When the current is strong, it brings warmer water and a milder climate to northern regions. The team's models, which were checked against historical temperature changes, suggest the current will weaken enough to cool the North Atlantic, while temperatures in the tropical Pacific are unlikely to change.

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Read more: http://www.guardian.co.uk/science/2008/may/01/climate.change

Notice the careful use of language. "Stall" is in the neadlines, which would mean that the change would halt. But then they use the word "conteract," which means to undo.

But not to worry. We apparently get a do-over every "70 to 80 years." Never mind that Kilimanjaro's top was snow free for the first time in 50,000 years, or that the "perma" frost ain't so "perma" anymore. The Northwest Passage is expected to be open this summer, and polar bears are drowning.

I guess I missed history class the day they described similar events happening in the 1920's.

What will these Big Oil funded scientists come up with next? They've already tried using the sun to deny human responsibility for climate change. Now they're going to take a few temperature readings out of context, and try to turn those into a "cooling trend" in order to convince people that global warming isn't an immediate threat.

Not only is this disingenuous, but it's also DANGEROUS. There are already plenty of neocons who refuse to accept that global warming and climate change is real. Now you have these Big Oil funded scientists offering them all the justification they need to hold fast to their position, and to help delay any real meaningful actions that could be taken while there is still time.

Really, you do no service to efforts against AGW with a response so ignorant of what the researchers actually said. Why didn't you click through or Google to the paper and read what the investigators actually stated?

These scientists are not "funded by Big Oil," btw. They most assuredly aren't "neocons," whatever that might mean in this context. The principal investigator is Noel Keenlyside, of the Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences in Germany, a research foundation established under German law. Here is their website, see for yourself.
http://www.ifm-geomar.de/index.php?L=1

There have been several other independent studies also coming to similar conclusions in the past half year in the UK and US. There's going to be more about this climate model in general news soon and ad hominem rejoinders are a poor substitute for understanding the science.

Here's the paper from Nature (which is the world's most prestigious general science journal).
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v453/n7191/full/nature06921.html

And here's discussion on Nature's blog, which underscores that this is NOT an indictment of AGW.
http://blogs.nature.com/news/thegreatbeyond/2008/05/decade_break_in_global_warming.html

Not to put too fine a point on it, but the title of the article is contrary to the conclusion quoted by the scientist.

See subject line quote from article.

Closing paragraphs in the article



Whomever wrote that title needs to learn to read.

edit to add: always watch the spin. learn to parse language and diagram sentences. drill down. a little reading comprehension thrown in and you can approach corporate media reports with some sense of confidence. (this is targeted to the "reader" in general, not to the OP in particular)

The energy is still being trapped, transfer to northern areas will simply be reduced.

Wonder what effect this will have on hurricane formation, with more energy building in the equatorial oceans.

That energy doesn't just dissapear if it doesn't get carried northward.

I can't believe that people still live in FL. My ass would have been on a plane the day after Katrina :hide:

that global dimming has.........

NOT a good thing.

to really work our asses off, as a race, to reverse the damage we've done.
Sadly it'll not be spun like that and we are all incredibly fucked!
What we need is someway to cool the earth back down, aside form releasing millions of years old carbon back into the atmosphere. Something along the lines of a great deal of volcanic activity, which would release fine particles into the atmosphere blocking a great deal of sunlight.
of course that adds other issues as well...

disrupting the current will also cancel the cooling effects of the disruption.

He's made some very ascerbic comments about people in science who focus on their computer models rather than looking at what's actually happening.

Then everyone would be in a world of hurt..The odds of it collapsing are very good particularly with the huge melt off from Greenland etc..The cold water from melt off would sink because cold does that and clog up the conveyer. The conveyer brings warm water up from south and cold water down from the north but if the cold water gets too intense it will stall the action.:shrug:

As atmospheric CO2 rose, absorption by the oceans increased, too, and currents sped up and migrated a bit. There may still be a little play in the system, but I doubt sea water can do much more for us.

due to less salinity in the water... this confirms that will happen