Suddenly, N. Carolina Is Facing Tighter Race

Source: NYT

May 3, 2008

Suddenly, N. Carolina Is Facing Tighter Race

By JEFF ZELENY and JODI KANTOR

RALEIGH, N.C. — Just days before the North Carolina primary, the Democratic presidential contest in this state is suddenly alive with a fresh air of competition, as Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton seeks to capitalize on a controversy that polls suggest has whittled away some of Senator Barack Obama’s support among white voters.

Not long ago, Mr. Obama was perceived to hold such an advantage that some Democrats here wondered whether Mrs. Clinton would bother to compete vigorously. But the candidates intensified their efforts in the final weekend — both appeared here on Friday evening — and Mr. Obama was eyeing a return on the eve of the election.

“This primary election on Tuesday is a game changer,” Mrs. Clinton told a crowd in Kinston. “This is going to make a huge difference in what happens going forward. The entire country — probably even a lot of the world — is looking to see what North Carolina decides.”

...

“If she carries North Carolina, she will get the nomination, and if she gets the nomination, she will be president of the United States,” Gov. Michael F. Easley, a Clinton supporter, said at a rally with Mrs. Clinton on Friday in Hendersonville.



Read more: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/03/us/politics/03campaign.html?_r=1&ref=us&pagewanted=print&oref=slogin

Easley is nasty.

If she wins North Carolina, she wins the nomination? Please Mr. Beasley tell me how.

The misleading and illegal robo calls.

either.

But they're just playing games. Obama was never going to take NC by more than 10 points, probably 6 or 7, but they've been "expecting" a 14 point win by him, so that now, when he wins by 6 or 7, they can claim he is losing momentum - try to scare the supers away from him.

More Clinton bullshit.

A couple of flawed polls that highly inflated Obama's lead gave many false impressions about this race. Has he been hurt by Wright here? Yes. No one can deny that. I'm hoping he can take it as high as ten points -- I'm expecting about a seven or eight point win.

state after state!

So tired of the BULLSHIT!

After NC was the poster child for all the ways to screw up elections a few years ago, a bipartisan effort changed the laws here drastically. While we were unable to eliminate DREs, they must produce voter-verifiable paper trails, the State has source code and each party has the right for its experts to examine this code. We also have random audits and a bunch of other things. Should there be anything strange, we should be able to detect it.

While I think Obama will likely win, the race is tightening, probably following the Wright stuff. That issue in less about anything Wright said and more about people thinking Obama lied when he initially claimed he had never heard anything similar in his twenty years at the church. That impression that Obama was a smooth talker trying to talk his way out of trouble was reinforced with each new version of his explanation. He seemed like a teenager facing skeptical parents and who had trouble keeping his story straight.

Several of the Obama supporters I know will not be able to vote for him because they screwed up. In order to participate in something, they had previously changed their registrations from Unaffiliated to Republican and failed to change it back. It is now too late to change for this election. I wonder how widespread this will be.

Could be true. But nobody believes it.

My gut feeling is that this could be much more damaging. It was not about something 20+ years ago, but something happening right now, with video, and in your face 24x7. Everyone could see him changing his story as conflicting evidence was reported. All this goes to the core of Obama's candidacy of transparency, inclusion and uniting of everyone, judgment, integrity, and being a new kind of candidate. His supporters see everyone else, particularly the Clintons, as lying all the time.

The "bitter, clinging" comments had a similar effect in PA. At first, Obama tried to shrug it off until he was confronted with the audio recording.

I had thought that Rezko, et al would cause serious problems for Obama by now, but the trial is moving slowly and everything about Chicago corruption is too complicated for sound bites. The LA Times story this week about Robert Blackwell alleging money laundering by Obama could be the next "big story".

Or it could be something abuzz on the RW blogs: that Obama's mentor in Hawaii, a black poet named Frank, has been identified as Frank Marshall Davis; Davis will certainly become at big problem for Obama at some point.

It's all spin

which also applies to ALL TEN of the remaining contests:

41-point or more margin of victory = blowout

36 - 40 points = a "real" win

30 - 35 points = good, but not good enough

11 – 29 points = a wash

5 - 10 points = useless

1 - 4 points = concession speech

:headbang:
rocknation

You know, like McCain?

It's just not as good a chance as Obama's, because, as I said, it would require that she win all ten of the remaining contests with at least 68% of the vote.

:headbang:
rocknation

not a single poll or statistic to support the titular claims. next thread.

Uh, since when does one state decide the nomination?

How about this: If she carries North Carolina, Indiana, West Virginia, Kentucky, Oregon, Puerto Rico, Montana and South Dakota by 40 point margins, she will get the nomination.

All the recent polls show Obama remaining ahead, and there's no big movement in the past few days. Yes, of course he had double digits before she started campaigning, just as the situation was revered in OH and PA. That is normal as the election date grows near and people get more serious about their thought process.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/nc/north_carolina_democratic_primary-275.html

At this point, it looks like Omana comes out of next Tuesday with more delegates than Clinton, and that will not work for her. If that scenario unfolds on Tuesday, there will be an avalanche of SD starting Wednesday, because it will be obvious to everybody that Obama is going to win the majority of pledged delegates.

Suddenly a "non sense an unbelievable controversy" start pushing clintons polls ...

and suddenly, the places where he should win, are starting to change... so fast it looks alike copper changed into gold, within, say a week ...

some even speaks as a, I quote "if she carries North Carolina, she will get the nomination"...

this is a miracle ...

this is a cheating miracle.

Because it is non sense. Nobody can change its mind so easily ... I mean, moreover actually, people are not stupids.

The Clintons and the Republicans are stealing the democratic presidential contest.
There's an arrangement done between clintons and republicans.

They know McCain can not win, so an arrangement has been done.

Obama will loose the nomination, whatever it takes.

You whiny little pissants. I knew it was a mistake to give you awards for mere attendance.

Nobody ever trained you to the possibility that you aren't the be all and end all of creation.

The sense of entitlement reeking from all of you is just nauseating.

Go chant YES WE CAN some more. Remind everyone that your cult of personality insults the aged, women, and anyone who punches a time clock.

Explain therefore the "so fast" change of attitude of thousands, just a month or two before the end of the primaries, just when the show has to be finished.. by months ... and just because a pastor in the media becomes crazy, suddenly, and start shouting insanities... this is non sense.

White working class do really care about that ? I mean, who really cares about that when the state of the country is so badly hurt for years, or maybe for decades ? When they are loosing their homes and jobs ?

NUTS !!!

Democrats can still support Hillary, knowing that it has non sense ? Do they truly believe that this is for the good of the party ? How can they be so blind ?

we are not dumbs ... I mean, we are not the be all and end all of creation, either. But it is not sense.

I do not personally care about Obama, or else, he's just a person, just a person representing everyones hopes. He's also a politician. And we are supporting that politician, not the other, just because we believe that politician truly can change the situation.

But this situation actually is disturbing, and it implies that "some" are trying to stole the contest, or make that so difficult that some of the promises made the elected politician will not be possible to achieve. And this is the most important part of it...

The clintons continue because because they think they can do better than the others ? No sense !!!!

A president can't do anything without the chamber and senate. I mean whatever the democrat elected the politic will be exactly the same, almost...

So it has nothing to do with Obama... it has to do with sinking the democrats ..

This must finish now. They Clintons are pushing the democratic titanic ideas within the Iceberg ...

"White working class do really care about that ?"
You can't say, or be tied to someone who says "God Damn America".

And there isn't such a thing as "context" in this era of Google and Youtube. Any more than if Senator Clinton's 'spiritual mentor' had used the 'N-word'. The words before and after are irrelevant in the era of cut and paste video.

Whining that ANY statement is "taken out of context" is useless in 2008, and the church going, working class folks who we need to win had better hear fervent and frequent denunciations of anything and everything Wright has ever said.

I think a vast majority of DU, and a near total majority of Senator Obama supporters (and I like him, would be happy to vote for him) have ZERO clue as to how radioactive Wright is, zero. But then I'm just a white working class joe so what does my analysis matter.

And I think your analysis matters a lot.

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I do think your analysis "they can't run against Obama, so they're running against Wright" is dead on. Obama has been, as any candidate MUST be, as inoffensive as possible. He is young, handsome, articulate and embodies something special for the huge number of Americans who just want to get 'past' the 'race' thing, especially the generation that has come of age post civil rights struggle and just wants to actually LIVE what doctor King talked about (rather than ranting, bitching and race-baiting; call it "Generation 'who gives a shit what color anyone is?'"), and really does represent hope to those who remember the Civil Rights struggle. Every candidate wants to be all (good) things to all people, or as close thereunto as they possibly can while standing for something. Wright kicked a huge hole in a carefully built construction.

But folks can cry 'Racism" 'till they turn blue in the face and it won't change the fact that the comments of Reverend Wright, as they have and will be used by the Clinton and McCain camps, are harmful to Senator Obama's campaign. That saying 'God Damn America' is every bit as offensive to many as using the N-word, or promising to bomb Iran or other things beyond the pale to us progressives.
I like Senator Obama; I'll be glad to vote for him as president. But folks who construe any and every criticism of him and/or Wright do far more harm than good, becoming parodies of progressivism more akin to a Saturday Night Live skit than a participant in rational argument.

However if someone thinks there is a disconnect, inferential error or other contradiction in saying both "Obama would make a good president" and "The Reverend Wright has made statements that deeply offend a large number of voters" the cognitive limitation is theirs, not mine.

People are getting tired of the news media and the internet kiddies turning Hillary into their favorite whipping girl.

Just the way you think -- that if Clinton wins, she's cheating, but if Obama wins, it's fair -- shows the world that Obama is the narcissists' candidate.

There is no "arrangement". The press loves to see blood. Obama thought he was too good for that, and now he can't control either his ex-preacher or his crazed online supporters.

But don't you worry, bunky. Obama will win, that much is certain. To be a politician who would vote against his nomination would be suicidal.

--p!

i live in NC and haven't personally met a single clinton supporter, nor a mccain supporter for that matter. this is obama's state.

i think this is hype actually. i'm so tired of it...

Great turnout..lots of cars honking, flashing lights, and giving thumbs-up!

CH was overwhelmingly for Edwards which tempers support for either second choice. I don't think most NC voters are particularly happy voting for any of the remaining choices. There are problems with each and every one. Many people remain undecided or barely decided and could change their minds by Tuesday.

To counter a possible shift to Clinton at the last minute because of Wright or something else, the Obama campaign has heavily pushed early voting in order to lock in votes as part of their GOTV, using TV ads and large rallies like the one Monday night in Chapel Hill. As elsewhere, they seem focused on blacks and college students.

The Clintons have been here a lot more with many more smaller events. Bill Clinton is in small towns everywhere you look, 8-10 a day drawing 500-1000 at each with the local media eating it up. Hillary has been doing larger events, drawing large crowds in areas that surprise me. She has spent a lot of time around Camp Lejeune and Ft. Bragg, often appearing with retired officers like Gen. Hugh Shelton.

People seem to be excited that their vote might actually mean something this time, that national candidates are actually campaigning in the state, the media and polling have followed, and a lot of people have attended rallies, often in places that have never had anything before. I think many in NC feel slighted and disappointed that Obama refused to participate in a debate here.

It as been 20 years since NC even had a contested presidential primary (I voted Jackson), so this is a big deal to us.

People of North Carolina have been fooled!

Hillary == nothing will change == same old same old == McSame.

Continue the Iraq war;

Continue the unconditional immoral support of Israel;

Continue the imperial foreign policy of USA;

Invading Iran won't be long;

Continue the decline of America.


=================

Hillary the Hawk

By PAUL W. LOVINGER

When Senator Hillary Clinton voted on October 11, 2002, to turn over to President George W. Bush the power that the Constitution vested in her and congressional colleagues to decide whether or not to wage war - or, quoting House Joint Resolution 114, whether an attack on Iraq was "necessary and appropriate" - she appeared to have a conflict of interest:

Her husband, Bill, was of course the former chief of the executive branch. And during her eight years as first lady, Mrs. Clinton never objected to Bill's eight wars, attacks, or interventions: in Afghanistan, Bosnia, Colombia, Haiti, Iraq, Somalia, Sudan, and Yugoslavia. He bombed Iraq in 1993 soon after taking office, again in 1996, and from 1998 till he left office. For a time, he was dropping bombs on Iraqis and Yugoslavs simultaneously in 1999.

None of those acts of war were authorized by Congress. The House of Representatives even voted its opposition to the undeclared bombing war on the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, i.e. Serbia and Montenegro (4-28-99). Bill paid no attention and carried on his one-sided warfare for eleven weeks.

Mrs. Clinton had been instrumental in persuading Bill to attack Yugoslavia, according to multiple writers. Biographer Gail Sheehy wrote in "Hillary's Choice" (p. 345): "On March 21, 1999, Hillary expressed her views by phone to the president. 'I urged him to bomb .' " Bill was indecisive. She invoked the Holocaust, alluding to claims of mass killings by Milosovic and his men, and asked, "What do we have NATO for if not to defend our way of life?" (Originally it was to defend western Europe against a possible Soviet attack.) Days later the president gave the go-ahead for war, thereby usurping the constitutional prerogative of Congress.

The Milosovic-massacre tale (which Senator Clinton repeated in her 2002 Senate speech) was subsequently debunked by several European pathological teams. The Clinton-NATO air raids, however, killed a couple of thousand civilians. A year later Amnesty International charged that international law was violated by indiscriminate bombings.

http://www.counterpunch.org/lovinger12192007.html

"On March 21, 1999, Hillary expressed her views by phone to the president. 'I urged him to bomb .' " Bill was indecisive. She invoked the Holocaust, alluding to claims of mass killings by Milosovic and his men, and asked, "What do we have NATO for if not to defend our way of life?"

This was beyond sick.

Democrats should dump Hillary the warmonger.

I kinda found this out quite by accident, but my boss is a serious player in local Democratic politics. A couple weeks ago, he called me in: "Yeah, we play a little politics here so go on the server, find the files for the signs (they were for Bev Perdue, the current lieutenant governor of North Carolina who's running for governor) and print them out. I'll get the signboards up here later on today." There were a hundred signboards of all sizes from 28x44 to 48x96, they're made from good durable wood and they all belong to him. He's got a shed in his backyard he keeps the signs in between elections. You can't beat working for a guy who owns a set of political signboards.

One of the biggest investors in this company is head of the local Democratic Party, and he just cannot STAND Barack Obama. Calls him every name in the book. Obviously it's because of Obama's preacher, right? Wrong. It's about Tony Rezko. I've spoken to some others who are fairly high up in the local Democratic hierarchy and they are all against Obama--precisely because of the Rezko thing.

Today I drove past the Robeson County Board of Elections to see probably twenty people standing there with "UFCW for Obama" shirts. This area is very strongly anti-union, and the UFCW (who's trying to unionize the Smithfield plant in Tar Heel) is an especial thorn in people's sides.

I know the tenor on DU these days is "Obama is the nominee, Hillary should resign for the good of the party," but I don't see it that way.

The people you mention are party activists. What about among the more-typical voters in your area? What do you hear from them?

We've got an 800-pound-gorilla problem in 7CD and the eastern end of 8CD: Fort Bragg. (Non-NC Dems: get out a map of North Carolina. Find Charlotte and Fayetteville, and draw a line between them. That's 8CD, and it's gerrymandered that way on purpose.

The perception (which may or may not be accurate, and I don't think it is) is that ANY Democrat is going to be "soft on national security." Which translates into "willing to slash military spending and put us all out of jobs." A Democrat might slash military spending, but because of what's at Fort Bragg (right now the 82nd Airborne and the Army's Special Operations and Special Forces Commands are here, and they're moving in Forces Command headquarters so we'll have our very own four-star general) this isn't the place they'd do it. OTOH, if I was trying to eke out a living in Manhattan, Kansas (where Fort Riley is) I'd be looking for some way to make money without soldiers in the area.

McSame's got a slight advantage here because he's a major hawk. A lot of our local African American Democrats are going with Obama, but not all--I've spoken with some really hardcore fundies who won't vote Obama because they don't consider UCC to be Christian. White Dems don't really give a shit one way or the other because our two choices aren't all that great. They don't like Hillary because (go to Free Republic and pick one) and they don't like Obama for his lack of experience and questionable backers. Pastor Wright really isn't a hindrance here because this town is chock full of preachers who are worse.

And I'm in a supposedly "red" district that is "represented" by the most useless member of the US Congress, Virginia Foxx. But Watauga County is a little blue oasis in a sea of red... and there are Obama signs everywhere, plus he has a campaign office in town. Races always "tighten" as the deadline draws near, since the undecideds make their decisions.