Nuclear rhetoric from Pyongyang alarms Seoul

Source: Financial Times (UK)

By Christian Oliver in Seoul and Demetri Sevastopulo in,Washington

South Korea is increasingly concerned that North Korea's latest threats about processing plutonium to expand its nuclear weapons arsenal is no longer a negotiating ploy to gain leverage with the US. Policymakers in Seoul believe Pyongyang may have decided to pursue a nonnegotiable strategy of trying to develop nuclear-tipped ballistic missiles by 2012, in an attempt to bolster the ailing regime with a fully fledged nuclear deterrent and secure a domestic propaganda coup.

Washington and Seoul have usually interpreted bouts of belligerence from the communist dictatorship over recent years as attempts to bargain for food aid, fuel oil and security guarantees, particularly in the context of the stalled six-party talks aimed at de-nuclearising the Korean peninsula.

"We hope they will return to negotiations but we are also preparing for the second contingency, that they do not," said a senior South Korean official. "A few years ago, many people thought North Korea would give up its nuclear weapons in an exchange. Now, that is not the common view."

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South Korean officials fear that Mr Kim may conduct a series of nuclear tests aimed at producing a warhead small enough to fit on a missile. They said South Korea would propose strong "consequences" for such tests, but declined to be specific.

Read more: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/70ae196a-40e7-11de-8f18-00144feabdc0.html?nclick_check=1

By Jonathan Thatcher

SEOUL, May 15 (Reuters) - North Korea is widely expected to carry out its threat to test a nuclear device, part of the slow march to developing an atomic arsenal and cementing its position as one of the world's most isolated states.

It portrays the test, its second, as a way to increase its military might in the face of an increasingly hostile world. More immediately, it raises its bargaining power on the global stage, especially with Washington.

The impoverished state's first nuclear test, on Oct. 9, 2006, is considered by the outside world to have been only marginally successful. It was used at home by state media to inspire greater national pride and respect for leader Kim Jong-il.

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Financial markets have become largely immune to North Korea's sabre-rattling, but a nuclear test would worry a region which accounts for a sixth of the world's economic output and which is repeatedly nagged by disputes among its states.


Read more for possible scenarios in the event of a nuclear test: http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/feedarticle/8508347

This administration has taken a very "Bush-like" stance toward negotiations with North Korea and this has made the issue very difficult.

The above comment is not meant to absolve the North Koreans of responsibility for their actions because, in all honesty, if they were not using the belligerent behavior of the South Korean gov't for their actions, they'd use something else.

With Gim Jeong-il's health fading, the prospects of his replacement are a serious issue.
His eldest son's repeated attempts to sneak into Japan to see Disneyland Tokyo has disqualified him.

His middle son, who was supposed to be his successor, has apparently been battling severe depression since the death of his mother a few years ago.

This leaves his youngest son, who, if he gets the position would be nothing more than a figurehead that the military props up for photo ops.

Jeong-il is not my first choice, but at least he does run the country.
God help us if it's run by the military.