STOCK MARKET WATCH, Wednesday 10 March (#1)

DJIA: If support at 10,500 continues to hold, it can rally above 11,000, but this is highly questionable.

SP500: It looks like an ascending triangle. If it can close above 1,165, the upside objective ought to be 1,210. However, a close below 1,132 would negate the formation and would give a downside target in the 1,100-1,110 zone.

NASDAQ: Notice the fan formation. If support at 1,990 holds, it can run to test resistance at 2,150. If it closes below 1,990, it would give a downside target in the 1,950-1,925 zone.

Summary as 3-9-04:
Today was the second consecutive negative day but the indices still managed to finish above support. The negative cross-over by the Thrust Oscillators, combined with the sharp drop by the Quantifiers suggest that we ought to expect continuation. For tomorrow we need to pay attention to the support levels listed in the table below. If support doesn't hold, then we ought to expect a further decline to the first support levels. Look for a triple bottom by the McClellan Oscillators for an entry on the long side.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

one is very timely. The latest previous ones I could find were from the 27th and getting a bit stale.

Iossif's targets so I can keep them on hand as I watch the market today.

It should be interesting to see how it all sorts out after the ups and downs of yesterday. :hi:

that down, as in bad day ahead?

Yet the press is saying Wall Street Set to Rise. I'm confused.

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=businessNews&storyID=4536198§ion=news

LONDON (Reuters) - Wall Street was set to rise on Wednesday, with investors looking to a positive forecast from consumer products giant Proctor & Gamble (PG.N: Quote, Profile, Research) to lift blue chips after Tuesday's losses.
By 5:51 a.m. EST, U.S. stock index futures were pointing to 0.1 percent gains for benchmark indices.

"The futures suggest that the Dow has abated from recent falls but the jury is still out over the Nasdaq," said Cantor Index's David Buik.

"Investors are scuttling around for good news and may find it in limited supply."

Didn't you get the memo? Now, go back to the TV with you and listen to what the bubble headed media whores pronounce from the mountaintop.

But seriously.

I notice that early projections are wrong almost 50% of the time. Such that I have stopped posting them - and even reading them - because they are just a huge waste of time. These early morning projections tend to focus on what the first half hour of trading will do. And the first half hour of trading bears scant relation to the performance of the trading day overall.

The other sentiments: "The futures suggest that the Dow has abated from recent falls but the jury is still out over the Nasdaq," said Cantor Index's David Buik.

"Investors are scuttling around for good news and may find it in limited supply."

These deserve more attention to the day's market performance, IMO, as they plug into the psychology of the day. It looks like caution is in the wind and a cautious investor is a frugal investor. The meme of the past few weeks is that the market is overpriced. While mutual funds and automated buy programs have been doing most of the work to maintain the prices reflected in the daily averages, the huge swaths of shares traded by the individual investors counterbalance the automated mutual fund purchases and sales.

"The futures suggest that the Dow has abated from recent falls but the jury is still out over the Nasdaq," said Cantor Index's David Buik.

It was the individual investors that sank the markets during the dot-com bust. Falling Nasdaq shares meant that investors had to shed stable blue chips to compensate for huge losses. So it makes no sense to me why Mr. Buik would present these two markets as though they are two different animals in isolated habitats.

I don't normally check out the early projections, but when I saw the futures charts, my curiousity was aroused. I thought I'd find a report or two that might lend a bit of insight. Instead, they are completely contradictory.

It's good to know that this is nothing new or all that significant.

If the markets continue to get surprised by the unemployment report month after month, shouldn’t it cease to be a surprise? What has been consistent with the monthly vigil has been the large discrepancy between expectations and the actual report. Stranger still has been the financial markets response – the equivalence of a yawn. Try to follow the logic: the equity market does well in an expanding economy, however an expanding economy can create inflation fears that require higher interest rates. A weak employment report means the economy is not growing that much and the Fed won’t have to raise rates, and a low rate environment is good for stocks. So, which is it - low rates or an expanding economy? On the political front, it is jobs, but the markets seem to worry more about a pending rate increase that has been officially put on the back burner for maybe the rest of the year. Another part of the conundrum is a poor job outlook will not allow consumers to be confident and spend, keeping a lid on any nascent recovery. Other than restructuring debt, low interest rates have not been the solution to what ails the economy. If the financial markets ever wake-up to the implications, investors could be in for a wild ride.

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As mentioned above, the bond market loved the weak jobs report, pushing rates to levels last seen in late June ’03. Maybe low enough for those who missed out on the refi boom of last year to take another look. The bond model remains in bullish territory at 3 of the 5 indicators positive (2 or less positive moves the model negative). So the debate rages between those believing that Greenspan will raise rates this year or will do nothing until ’05. We believe it will take job growth of greater than 200,000 per month to even begin considering a rate hike, so Friday’s increase of a mere 21,000 is well below the mark. Put us in the camp with those expecting a rate increase either late in ’04 or later. The pressure on the Fed is not to tighten, but to keep the monetary spigots open.

more..

http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/nolte/2004/0308.html

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 88.53 Change +0.24 (+0.27%)

related articles:

http://www.dailyfx.com/article_rr_037_030904.html

THE WEEK AHEAD

In the week ahead, the dollar remains under pressure as it continues to digest the meaning behind the shockingly weak non-farm payrolls report. The only possible data that has the strength to accelerate or change the downward trend in the dollar is January's trade data and February's retail sales report. The market will be closely watching the trade release to see if the weakness in the dollar has been able to boost exports. Any surprises in the report could once again inject volatility into the market. If there are no surprises, the euro should resume its uptrend as the market readjusts interest rate expectations. ECB Trichet clearly has no intentions of easing monetary policy while the Fed will be forced to maintain an accommodative policy for an extended period of time. Following the weak UK trade data, the British pound should remain under pressure unless there are any significant upside surprises to Thursday's leading indicators report. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to raise rates by 25bp on Thursday. Intervention should continue ahead of the March 31st fiscal year end. Judging from the recent price action, the BoJ does not appear compelled to push USDJPY any higher than 112, after having sent the pair soaring 6% in 3 weeks. However, they will still be sitting on the bid, snapping up dollars if speculators attempt to test the BoJ's resolve. Greenspan speaks twice this week - although the topic is on education, it will be important to keep an eye out for any interesting comments that hit wires, especially in regards to the labor market and job creation. We are basically looking for any comments on last Friday's weak payrolls report, especially after Greenspan forecasted strong job creation over the next few months.

...more...

http://www.dailyfx.com/article_daily_fundamentals_030904.html

USD JPY

USDJPY rallied today on the back of weaker Japanese machinery orders. Core machinery orders fell 12.2% in January, suggesting that business spending may be slowing. However, this data is rather volatile and tends to fluctuate on a monthly basis. Therefore, it may be hasty to write off the government's predictions that capital investment and exports will lead the economic recovery. The Bank of Japan continues to surprise the market as intervention persists at current levels. The Bank of Japan is suspected of removing bids in the late US session, prompting a 75 pip slide in USDJPY in matter of minutes, only to resume intervention, sending the pair back up to end the day generally unchanged. The aggressive intervention that has been conducted by the Bank of Japan in the past few weeks is directly related to the March 31 fiscal year end repatriation. This seasonal rally has occurred without fail since 1996. The Japanese government intervenes for two purposes in March. The first of which is to help boost the value of overseas profits. Japanese corporations tend to repatriate profits shortly before the fiscal year end to help improve their balance sheets. The Bank of Japan's buying of dollars helps companies to close their books at more favorable rates. The second reason why the Bank of Japan intervenes is to offset the repatriation related buying of yen. Once the books are closed on March 31st, we expect the BoJ to slow intervention.

...more...

http://www.smartmoney.com/bn/ON/index.cfm?story=ON-20040309-000996-1703

U.S. Dollar Climbs

NEW YORK -- The dollar rallied across the board Tuesday, gaining particular ground against the major European currencies after the euro tumbled through a series of pre-placed sell orders.

The dollar had been well supported for the entire global session after alarmingly weak U.K. trade data put sterling under heavy selling pressure. Indeed, the pound lost around two and a half cents on the day.

In an extremely choppy trading session devoid of market-moving data, the other major focus of attention was once again tactics apparently employed by Japan's Ministry of Finance to drive the dollar against the yen.

In a mirror image of its suspected maneuver Monday, the Bank of Japan, which acts in currency markets on behalf of the finance ministry, suddenly withdrew its bid for dollars via agent banks at around 111.10 yen, causing the dollar to plunge as low as 110.25 yen. Unlike Monday, however, when it was content to let the dollar settle at its session lows, the BOJ almost immediately roared back into the market aggressively buying dollars above the market rate to send the greenback higher, traders said.

There was then a lull of around two hours before the euro's slide below $1.2350 gathered momentum, sending the dollar advancing across the board.

"What you have here is an unwinding of short-dollar positions put on at 1.2680 Swiss francs and $1.2400-50," against the euro, said David Leaver, senior trader at Gain Capital in Warren, N.J.

He said thinning liquidity after the close of London trading likely helped accelerate the euro's decline. "But these moves are a little exaggerated, don't get me wrong."

...more...

Good Morning Ozy, 54anickel and all the lurkers and contributors to this daily thread :hi:

I have no predictions for the day - there are only a couple economic reports due out - the Trade Balance (8:30 EST) and the Wholesale Inventories (10:00 EST) - you can find the reports here:

http://biz.yahoo.com/c/e.html

Have a Great Day at the Casino!

I've been watching this story in the news a bit. Seems there's a bit of "sassiness" toward the IMF. Argentina may be considered as setting a bad example here. :evilgrin:

Noticed Snow had no comment after the agreement.

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000086&sid=aKv8DV7iBoyA&refer=latin_america

March 10 (Bloomberg) -- Argentine bondholders, including a group representing 7,000 investors, said they are concerned an accord between the government and the International Monetary Fund won't encourage the nation to restructure $99.4 billion of debt.

``There is no indication whatsoever on what this deal means for the rights of the creditors and the course of the debt renegotiation,'' Horacio Vazquez, head of the Argentine Bondholders' Association, the country's largest creditor group, said in an interview in Buenos Aires. ``There is no reliable information on whether Argentina will finally be compelled to start serious talks.''

snip>
Argentina's offer to repay investors with new bonds worth $250 per $1,000 face value of defaulted debt has spawned dozens of lawsuits from investors contending that South America's second- largest economy after Brazil can afford more. The U.S., the largest shareholder of the IMF, has called on Argentina to move ahead on talks with bondholders.

snip>
``We would urge Argentina and the creditors to get together and work it out and urge Argentina to live up to its commitments,'' U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow said March 3 following a speech at George Washington University. Snow declined to answer reporters' questions on Argentina yesterday as he left a conference in Washington.

Argentine President Nestor Kirchner, 54, had threatened to miss the payment unless the IMF agreed to back Argentina's stance on restructuring its defaulted bonds. The IMF agreed to withdraw new demands not included in the original lending accord signed in September, Senator Cristina Kirchner, the president's wife, said in comments made at the Senate in Buenos Aires and broadcast on TodoNoticias television station. IMF spokesman Thomas Dawson has scheduled a press conference at 11 a.m. today in Washington.

more...

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B7D939785%2D2D4D%2D45FF%2D82CB%2D4A0655505D50%7D&siteid=mktw

Drop in exports pushes deficit to new high of $43.1 billion

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) - The U.S. trade deficit set a new record high in January, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday.

The trade gap widened $365 million, or 0.9 percent, in January to $43.1 billion. This is slightly above the previous record of $43 billion set last March.

The widening of the deficit was unexpected. A survey of analysts by CBS Marketwatch.com had produced a consensus of $41.9 billion. The December trade gap was revised slightly higher to $42.7 billion from the initial estimate of $42.5 billion.

Both exports and imports fell in January, but exports fell faster than imports.

January exports fell $1.06 billion, or 1.2 percent, to $89.0 billion. This was the biggest decline in exports since last August.

...more...

Well, I guess that the "weaker" strong dollar issue - that it would help our exports was just another "misunderstood mis-estimate".

Hi UIA!

:toast:

Didn't you write I should switch over to SMW to make the 1000?


http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x412018

:toast:

:toast:

and am happy to be a "cross poster" with you :D

usually 54anickel and I do that simultaneous finger pounding exercise :D

:cheers:

This thread has become a habit ...
:D

Congrats on hitting four digits! :hi:

:donut: :donut: :donut: :donut: :donut: :donut:

Tell us: is your stint as a Mod coming to a close? Or shall you be re-upping for another tour?

My personal and professional lives are getting busier and I may take some time away from the computer.

But I'll be around here again before too long...:loveya:

My knowledge of the markets is way far to rudimentary, my timezone European, and, besides, I'm only a lazy sporadic poster.

But nice to read you dropping in! :hi:

more often, ze_dscherman. Along with your great sense of humor and of course, let's not forget, your eye on geo-magnetic storms. :evilgrin:

in. I've wondered why there's so little talk about the effect this is having and will have on our already enormous trade deficit.

I don't think I've seen any coverage of this in the financial press. I may have missed it, but it seems to be a "shhhhh...don't talk about it" topic.

We have so little that we export in the way of manufacturing these days, it's hard to believe that our "agri-business" isn't suffering huge losses because of this and that enormous pressure isn't being put on countries to lift this ban.

Maybe it's an odd thought, but could BoJ be having much arm twisting done to buy our treasuries as a trade off for not buying our Beef?

:shrug:

fiasco.

Exports of agricultural products had the largest decline, falling 7.9 percent to $4.6 billion.

Zurich gnomes unloading a cartfull of gold?

way back down again.

Last trade 88.85 Change +0.56 (+0.63%)

Settle 88.29 Settle Time 23:32

Open 88.48 Previous Close 88.29

High 88.97 Low 88.31

are getting out in front of the bad news - why would they do that? hmmmm....

what appears to be the coming of world-wide currency devaluation. Seems no ones economy is doing all that well. :shrug:

http://www.forbes.com/markets/newswire/2004/03/10/rtr1293051.html

FOREX-Dollar stung, then recovers after U.S. trade data

NEW YORK, March 10 (Reuters) - The dollar slipped briefly against the euro after a U.S. trade report showed a wider than expected trade gap but swiftly recovered to remain higher on the day on Wednesday.

The wide U.S. trade deficit continues to be one of the biggest weights on the dollar but analysts said the euro's bounce higher in the immediate wake of the U.S. data swiftly evaporated. Traders were still wary of buying the single European currency after its fall below a key technical area the prior session.

snip>
"The euro's rise in reaction to the report looked a bit lukewarm to me. There seems to be a lack of conviction that this paves the way for sizable euro gains against the dollar, because I suspect there is just too much nervousness for those who are still positioned long euro," said Sean Callow, currency strategist with IDEAglobal in New York.

Long positions in a currency are essentially bets that it will appreciate.

snip>
Against the Swiss franc <CHF=>, the dollar was up about 0.3 percent on the day to 1.2857 francs.

Sterling <GBP=> was down 0.7 percent to $1.8125.

Earlier in the session, the dollar had held a firm bias against European currencies while holding steady on the yen.

snip>
"People are still unwinding their positions and moves are not happening based on fundamentals. The market is still thinking the Fed will be on hold for longer and wants to sell the dollar, but it is still adjusting to the recent major shakeout in positions," said Mary Davis, global foreign exchange strategist at Credit Suisse First Boston.

Japan said the economy grew a real 1.6 percent in October-December from the previous quarter, revising down its initial reading of 1.7 percent released in mid-February. However, it was still the best performance in 13 years.

in light of the trade deficit -

the dollar has now topped 89 and I was puzzling over the increase -

so what I came up with in light of the BoJ intervening (along with other currencies falling while the dollar is rising) was that it reminds me of pushers and junkies -

the junkie actually supports the pushers through their addictions - so it is in the interest of all of the countries which we have trade deficits to keep us from falling under the burden of debt so they just keep enough trickling into the kitty to keep it alive.

just a thought...

"Such a large gap (current trade deficit) is likely to maintain speculation that the US dollar remains fundamentally overvalued," said Ryan Shea at Bank One. "As such we judge that the recent bout of dollar strength will not be sustained."

SNIP

Adam Cole, senior forex strategist at Credit Agricole Indosuez, attributed the euro's move to position squaring, arguing that the triggering of a cluster of stop-loss orders at the $1.2350 level had helped fuel the dollar's move.

Daragh Maher at ING attributed dollar strength against European currencies to a significant narrowing of the US deficit against these natons. The US deficit with the eurozone fell to $6.6bn, from $11.1bn in December, with the deficit against the UK down to £0.4bn from £1.1bn. The trad gap with Asian nations rose. however.

"This shows that the burden of adjustment is falling primarily on western European nations rathe than those countries that have pegged their currency against the dollar," he said. "This has negative implications for European growth."

http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1078381664185&p=1012571727085

a bit there in Dec, and it was obviously pushing the Euro up due to Asian intervention. Although the trend remains in place, it would be nice to see the more deficit numbers when the US$ was up a bit.

Edit to add:

Never mind, it was January that saw the dollar down by quite a bit, not December. Actually, it's now back up to where it was in December.

ECB intervention, or Japan using Euros on their behalf (since ECB doesn't want to be seen playing that game).

The INO charts for both are exact mirrors of each other today, much like we would see in the Yen USD charts when BoJ work their magic.
:shrug:

http://www.forbes.com/markets/newswire/2004/03/10/rtr1293338.html

FOREX-Dollar extends gains on profit-taking in euro

NEW YORK, March 10 (Reuters) - The dollar rose 1 percent against the euro on Wednesday as traders shrugged off news of a wider-than-expected U.S. January trade deficit and instead sold the euro, taking profits on the currency's recent gains.

Analysts said that profit-taking in euros and technically driven trading, not economic data, were boosting the U.S. currency.

snip>
Traders said they were wary of buying the single European currency after it slipped below a key technical area against the dollar between $1.2330 and $1.2350 in the prior session.

That paved the way for the euro's fall on Wednesday, and the single European currency also crashed below support against the yen.

"Basically, it's Japanese stop-loss selling of euro/yen below 135.85 yen. That was the key support," said Phillip Capone, vice president for FX derivatives at Fortis Bank.



http://www.forbes.com/home_europe/newswire/2004/03/10/rtr1293315.html

ANALYSIS-Currency funds get whiplash from Japan's FX jolts

LONDON, March 10 (Reuters) - Japan's meddling in the foreign exchange market has become a headache for currency managers as sophisticated trading tools are rendered increasingly useless.

Japan has sold record amounts of yen in recent months to cushion exporters from a falling dollar, successfully disrupting a broad downtrend in the U.S. currency.

While Japan is sitting on a tidy profit from its dollar purchases this year, anyone trading foreign exchange using momentum, technical or fundamental indicators has had a more challenging time.

"Japan's intervention has created a completely artificial market," said Brian Strange, client portfolio manager of JP Morgan Fleming Asset Management's currency group.

snip>
The dollar's sharp fall over the past two years has been a boon for most currency managers, who perform best in a well-defined trend. But the greenback's rebound since mid-February has been characterised by surging intra-day volatility and no clear trend.

The JP Morgan Fleming Managed Currency Fund had a stellar 2002 performance, returning 15.8 percent net of fees. Returns so far this year are little over one percent.

snip>
In the current environment, neither trend followers nor fundamental models are performing well," said Michael Metcalfe, senior currency strategist at State Street.

"Central banks are normally non-profit maximisers in foreign exchange, so it would be ironic if the Bank of Japan turns out to be one of this year's most profitable traders."

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. applications for mortgage loans rose last week as mortgage rates dropped and economists expect new lows in borrowing costs to spur more requests for loans to refinance mortgages and buy homes in coming weeks.

The Mortgage Bankers Association said its market index, a measure of weekly mortgage activity, rose 1.2 percent to 889.1 in the week ended March 5.
At the same time, the trade group's purchase index, a gauge of new requests for loans to buy homes, rose 1.4 percent to 428.6.

SNIP

Refinancings accounted for over 50 percent of last week's loan applications and last week's pace of refinancings were at their highest level since the week ended Aug. 1, 2003 when refinancing index hit 4,047.5 and mortgage rates averaged 6.37 percent.

SNIP

The low borrowing costs also are expected to support consumer spending on goods and services because a rise in home values in recent years and lower rates have spurred "cash out" refinancings that help home owners squeeze equity out of their homes, said Low.

http://news.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=businessNews&storyID=4536523

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. trade deficit widened to a record $43.1 billion in January, as rising oil prices helped keep imports near historic highs and exports retreated despite the weaker dollar, the Commerce Department (news - web sites) said on Wednesday.

The monthly trade gap was larger than the mid-point analyst estimate of $42.1 billion. Average prices for imported oil leapt to $28.55 per barrel in January, the highest since March 2003.

Jon Lonski, chief economist at Moody's Investors Service in New York, said the widening trade gap was "consistent with other signs of an economy that appears to be losing its footing" and therefore could weigh on stock prices.

more...

equity from our homes - remember? Re-fis are up again as rates are down. Isn't life grand? :eyes:

"mis-speaks" have some other meaning:

putting food on your family

making the pie higher

nearly all imports come from other countries

For those not familiar with the lore: He got out of a swamp by pulling himself up on his own hair.

Yuan from Snow and Greenspan? Couple of interesting points in this article:

snip>
China has faced pressure from the United States to move to a flexible exchange rate because of complaints that its practice of pegging its currency at 8.28 yuan to dollar gives it an unfair advantage by artificially depressing the price of its exports.

But Chinese data released on Tuesday showed the country posted a $7.87 billion trade deficit in February, compared to a trade surplus of $680 million in February 2003, as imports jumped 77 percent from the previous year.

snip>
"I don't think (the report) changes the big picture. Those who are bearish on the dollar over the course of the year will have their expectations reinforced. They will see this in line with that bearish view, that the dollar still has further to fall to help correct the (trade) deficit," he said.

However, the dollar lost ground only briefly before shooting up against major currencies after the new record trade deficit was reported.

What's up with that? BoJ again? :shrug:

....had a very interesting set of articles on the U.S. trade deficit and currency valuations. "Why America's deficit is hard to turn aroun." I just thought I'd drop a few excerts (pages 12-15):

"Although America finds it easier than most countries to fund its external deficit by sucking in foreign capital, its economy has a number of characteristics that make it much tougher than elsewhere to shrink that deficit...The first problem is the sheer size of it (2002 = $1.4 trillion in imports, versus $974 billion in exports, an almost 50% differnce)

"Moreover, Americas have a particular penchant for imports. Back in 1969, two economists, Hendrik Houthakker & Stephen Magee, ntoiced that for nay given rate of economic growth, America's imports tended to grow faster than those of other countries.."

.."The Phenemenon has long perplexed eocnomists. Why should America be more addicted to imports than other countries?" (it's not trade barriers anymore..)

..fast forward 30 years...."In a detailed re-estimation of the statistics in 2000, three econs at the Federal Reserve, Peter Hooper, Karen Johnson and Jamie Marquez found that America's imports rose 1.8% for every 1% increase in overall spending. A 1% rise in foreign demand, in contrast, produced a less than proportional (0.8%) rise in American exports."

..."According to calaculations by Ms. Johnson and Messrs Hoooper & Marquez, a 1% drop in the dollar reduces America's demand for imports by only 0.3% in the long term. A 1% drop in income, on the other hand, reduces imports by 1.8%. So if a drop in the dollar is to make much of a dent in the trade deficit, it would have to be really big. But how big? The estimates differ..."

The article went on to show that some felt 35% was needed to get in back in balance, while another suggested a 43% drop in the dollar would reduce the current account deficit to 2%. A more pessimistic anlysis by Rosenberg of Deutsche Bank suggested a 40-50% drop would be required to get the deficit to about 3.5%. Of course it was noted that the euro would be 2 to 1 over the dollar, and the yen would be 60 to 1. No comments on what the effects of that would be...but I'd profer the US dollar would no longer be the International Reserve Currency in that scenario - or at least several members of OPEC would go to a "petroeuro"...while we pay $5 per gallon of gas...

Anyhow, in a somewhat surprising paragragh, it was stated by the the former chief economist at the IMF:

"The risk of a dollar crash and a subsequent financial meltdown are not neglgible. Discussin the coming fall in the dollar, Mr. Rogoff recently commented: "The world is set to jump off the top of a waterfall without knowing how deep the water is below."

What I find amazing is that economist continue to use the 'cheap dollar = more US exports/less US imports' axoim, despite the fact that is was somewhat called into question 35 years ago, and has now been basically disproven. I don't care how many times they repeat the propaganda. It just ain't so.

The other issue about the deficit is that in 2003, 20% of the US deficit was oil imports, rising to 25% if you consider other energy/NG/etc. So, $100 billion out of our $408 billion trade deficit in 2003 was imported petroleum products. OPEC is not exactly sticking to their $22-$28 price band, so as long as the US consumes its current energy level, and as long as OPEC tries to maintian their purchsing power without suffering losses from the dollar, the U.S. trade deficit will never come close to being bridged/balanced. Perhaps 35 mpg CAFE standards would help reduce the trade deficit, but the corporate oligarchy will not allow that to happen...

As others have noted, we no longer have enough domestic manufacturing base to offset our trade imbalance. I dare anyone out there to go out and find a simple toaster oven that is still made in USA, as opposed to China or some other Asain country...good luck!

Bottom line, the US economy simply does not follow the rules of economics b/c the dollar does not have to abide by the rules of economics. Mainly due to the dollar's unique role as world reserve currency/petrodollar. Don't let the pundits tell anyone that a devalued dollar will somehow come even remotely close to reducing our trade deficit, as it will only make it worse given our energy imports. I wonder when the punditry will realize that each incease in the price of oil will increase the size of our deficit due to OPEC's desire to retain their purchasing power w/out heavy loses...

****************
Please note the last sentence....

****************

Feb 20, 2004
'Crude futures prices rise in shortened NYMEX session'
by Sam Fletcher

http://ogje.pennnet.com/news/news_display.cfm?Section=NEWS&ArticleID=199192


"...The average price for the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries' basket of seven benchmark crudes slipped by 8¢ to $30.44/bbl Thursday.

"The value of the OPEC basket has been above the $22-28 target range for 108 trading days over the past 8 months," Horsnell noted. "Over the same period, the value of the OPEC basket in euros has stayed within a 22-28 euros band on all just 2 trading days, and on those 2 days it was below the band."

He said, "This is of course just a rather bizarre statistical coincidence. It certainly does not imply that the target band has been secretly switched into euros or that the dollar has lot its primacy in the oil market."

<<<<Sure Sam, that is simply a bizarre statistical coincidence...whatever you makes you feel better, now go back to sleep>>>>

9:34
Dow 10,467.55 +10.59 (+0.10%)
Nasdaq 1,999.09 +3.93 (+0.20%)
S&P 500 1,141.09 +0.51 (+0.04%)
10-Yr Bond 3.738% +0.019

Dow 10,436.81 -20.15 (-0.19%)
Nasdaq 1,996.38 +1.22 (+0.06%)
S&P 500 1,138.46 -2.12 (-0.19%)
10-Yr Bond 3.738% +0.019

U.S. stocks open with small gains

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) - A bullish earnings outlook from Procter & Gamble failed to spark blue chips Wednesday morning but the Nasdaq was edging up from a two-and-a-half month low.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI - News) opened with small gains but they quickly melted away. The blue chip gauge was last down 12 points or 0.1 percent, to 10,444.

<cut>
The Commerce Department reported a record $43.1 billion trade gap for the United States in January, an increase of 0.9 percent. The widening gap was unexpected as economists had expected the deficit to narrow slightly to $41.9 billion. See Economic Report.

<cut>
Oil stocks overall were active ahead of the latest data on U.S. inventories. London Brent North Sea crude was up 22 cents to $32.45 a barrel.

story

Dow 10,425.55 -31.41 (-0.30%)
Nasdaq 1,994.53 -0.63 (-0.03%)
S&P 500 1,137.88 -2.70 (-0.24%)
10-Yr Bond 3.742% +0.023

edit to add:

Strange start to the day. Gold, stock and bonds all down. Dollar and Yen both up. Weird. Some repositioning going on? :shrug:

January Wholesale Stocks Below Forecast

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Inventories at U.S. wholesalers rose less than expected in January, Commerce Department data showed on Wednesday, and the pace of sales more than halved as demand for cars posted the largest fall in over six years.
Commerce said wholesale stocks of goods rose 0.1 percent after a revised 0.6 percent advance in December, and below the 0.4 percent monthly gain expected by Wall Street.

Wholesale sales rose 0.6 in January after gaining a revised 1.5 percent the previous month, but car sales fell 6.6 percent in their weakest performance since December 1997.

SNIP

http://news.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=businessNews&storyID=4538259§ion=news

Dow 10,456.81 -0.15 (0.00%)
Nasdaq 2,004.96 +9.80 (+0.49%)
S&P 500 1,140.76 +0.18 (+0.02%)
10-Yr Bond 3.731% +0.012

caught up yet, but gives a few more technicals.

10:25AM: The market continues to weaken, with the Nasdaq having slipped into the red, yet losses overall are only mild... Note that in its pullback, the S&P 500 has slipped below its 50-day simple moving average at 1138... The technical level is significant in that it has served as a formidable support for the index over the past year, with only limited and short-lived penetrations...

As noted in Briefing.com's Technical Take this morning, while the index has room to the downside with no change to the generally neutral bias as long as the late January/February lows are intact (1124/1122), a sustained move below the 50-day will leave investors on edge and the index vulnerable... NYSE Adv/Dec 1257/1558, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1259/1358

posted yesterday?

http://www.prnewswire.co.uk/cgi/news/release?id=118931

Statement by Jayne Shontell, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations Fannie Mae March 10, 2004


WASHINGTON, March 10 /PRNewswire/ -- The following is being issued by Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM):

The Financial Times story by Stephen Schurr is based on a wholly invented methodology that we told the reporter is wrong. His calculation and methodology are flawed and the subsequent implications are wrong. The methodology he employed incorrectly calculated unrealised losses, and as a result, he arrived at an erroneous conclusion. This has resulted in a gross misrepresentation. Anyone who is seriously interested in looking at this should wait for our 10-K filing next week.

http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1078381650569

snip>
Fannie Mae breaks down the notional value of its various derivatives positions. The Financial Times concluded the best method of estimating the amount of realised cash flow hedge losses is to apportion gains and losses by notional value.

When net values are broken down by proportion in this manner, the unrealised cash flow hedge losses would total $1.1bn.

At the end of the third quarter, Fannie Mae's AOCI was negative $24.757bn on a pretax basis (on an after-tax basis, the total was $16.092bn). If AOCI is the sum of realised and unrealised derivatives positions, then subtracting the $1.1bn would mean Fannie Mae's total realised derivatives losses would be $23.653bn (or, on an after-tax basis, $15.375bn).


Or this one that was linked to yesterdays article that I couldn't access due to some server overload error

http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1078381640936

Dow 10,448.44 -8.52 (-0.08%)
Nasdaq 1,999.27 +4.11 (+0.21%)
S&P 500 1,139.12 -1.46 (-0.13%)
10-Yr Bond 3.727% +0.008

Is the cavalry in retreat? Have a great afternoon.

Ozy :hi:

:hi:

Have a great day - see you tomorrow!

This may be some of the re-fi market for the next round.

http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/Banking/P49733.asp

snip>
It’s not hard to be lulled into an adjustable rate. A weak jobs market appears to be lessening the chances of a major rise in interest rates this year, and sinking yields on Treasury notes are likely to make even cheaper money available to borrowers. Already refinancing is at a seven-month high, the Mortgage Bankers Association said this week.

There's encouragement from the top, too. Franklin Raines, head of Fannie Mae, the mortgage financing giant, said in mid-February: "Even now, half of the loans that are out there could be economically refinanced."

A week later, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan went even further, opining that adjustable-rate mortgages had delivered great bang for the buck in the last 10 years, so more homeowners should consider getting adjustables rather than fixed-rate loans.

snip>
The amounts homeowners are risking is staggering. Consider:

Variable-rate loans accounted for 18% of all mortgage originations in the third quarter of 2003. The Mortgage Bankers Association projects that to increase to 27% in the first quarter of 2004, even though fixed rates are still low by historic standards. Frank Nothaft, chief economist at Freddie Mac, which provides mortgage capital to the nation’s lenders, estimates that adjustables comprise 15% to 20% of the $6.64 trillion in outstanding single-family mortgage debt.

Borrowing on variable home equity lines of credit has increased by more than 20% annually for the past three years and now totals $359 billion.

The amount owed on credit cards -- most of which are adjustable -- has nearly doubled since 1995 to $739 billion.

Adjustables tend to be far more popular among borrowers getting jumbo loans (those in excess of $333,700 for 2004), with 52% of jumbo borrowers opting for adjustables in 2002, versus 14% of conforming loan borrowers.

Some lenders are offering "monthly adjustable" mortgages with introductory rates as low as 1.25%. The second-month rate could increase as much as 3% and continue to rise monthly after that.

http://www.iht.com/articles/509637.html

Volkswagen is blaming many of its woes on the rise of the euro against the dollar, which has hurt its sales in the United States and other dollar-pegged markets.

But VW, which announced Tuesday that it would eliminate 5,000 jobs as part of a broad cost-cutting plan, brought some of that pain on itself by failing to hedge its currency exposure until long after other German carmakers had done so. Now, the company said, it has hedged 70 percent of its currency risk for this year. It also plans to increase production in non-euro countries, like Brazil and Mexico, where it has assembly plants.

snip>
China, however, remains a bright spot for Volkswagen: It sold almost 700,000 cars there last year, and maintained its No. 1 position in what is its only rapidly growing big market.

Dow 10,438.74 -18.22 (-0.17%)
Nasdaq 1,995.71 +0.55 (+0.03%)
S&P 500 1,137.89 -2.69 (-0.24%)
30-yr Bond 4.661% -0.011

12:00PM: The market has spent the entirety of the morning trading in a "one step forward, one step back" fashion and not getting anywhere... The indecisive trade is a continuation of the action seen through most of February and March, with participants unwilling to drive the market one way or another in a decisive fashion...
Accordingly, the major averages have spent the entirety of the morning not straying too far away from the unchanged line, despite upbeat corporate developments including upward guidance from Procter & Gamble (PG 107.00 +4.51), Danaher (DHR 90.69 +1.63), and Rockwell Auto (ROK 30.23 +1.66)... The Nasdaq is outperforming its blue-chip counterparts on a relative basis... After closing below the 2000 mark in yesterday's session, the tech-composite is flirting with the psychologically-significant mark today, while the S&P 500 is vacillating around its 50-day simple moving average at 1138... The bulk of the sectors are little changed, with limited leadership to talk about... Among the leaders to the upside are the household & personal product, casino & gaming, and hardware sectors...

Laggards of note include the gold, oil & gas services, aluminum, integrated telecom, and healthcare facilities groups... Elsewhere, the bond market is little changed, with the 10-year note up 4/32, bringing its yield down to 3.71%... This morning's economic reports came and went largely unnoticed, with the Trade Balance checking in at -$43.1 bln (consensus -$42.0 bln) and the Wholesale Inventories at 0.1% (consensus 0.4%)...

has fully been broken. There had been a bit of equilibrium between 10,500 and 10,700 for a while. While movement might pierce the boundary... by the end of the day it would seem to modulate back into range, and when too many days had movement (even if it was small) in one direction... movement would then counter balance it.

Wasn't sure if the piercing at the close of the lower boundary would be an anomoly - and movement would inch back into the equilibrium range or not.

Would seem to appear that we are seeing real movement towards a new equilibrium point.

DEFICIT points to San Joaquin County layoffs
Lodi News-Sentinel - Lodi,CA,USA
... If there are layoffs, Lopez said notices will go out June 15. Lopez
said the county could also look at restructuring fees for county services.
...
<http://www.lodinews.com/articles/2004/03/10/news/09_layoffs_040310.txt>


BOARD hints at layoffs next year
Times-Standard - Eureka,CA,USA
... At this point, it's looking like next year. Talk of layoffs began Tuesday,
when the Board of Supervisors cut $1.2 million from the budget. ...
<http://www.times-standard.com/Stories/0,1413,127~2896~2008180,00.html>


BUSD grapples with cuts, layoffs
Desert Dispatch - Barstow,CA,USA
BARSTOW -- Three Barstow Unified School District committees have recommended
18 ways for the district to save money, including layoffs of teachers
and other ...
<http://www.desertdispatch.com/cgi-bin/newspro/viewnews.cgi?newsid1078928846,62152,>


TEACHER layoffs not expected at Fairfield-Suisun school district
Fairfield Daily Republic - Fairfield,CA,USA
... We don't anticipate any layoffs of certified non-administrative staff,"
said Kari Sousa, district director of fiscal services. ...
<http://www.dailyrepublic.com/articles/2004/03/10/news/news3.txt>


EVERGREEN Layoffs
WTOL - Toledo,OH,USA
... start with. So this year--2004-2005--we had to reduce expenditures"
says Jones. The layoffs were based on seniority. Teachers could ...
<http://www.wtol.com/Global/story.asp?S=1699763>


CITY Council meeting focuses on job layoffs
Chillicothe Gazette - Chillicothe,OH,USA
Council will discuss four ordinances intended to reduce the number of necessary
layoffs. They are: An ordinance appropriating $68,292.86 ...
<http://www.chillicothegazette.com/news/stories/20040310/localnews/49492.html>


TEACHERS offered deal to avoid layoffs
The Grand Rapids Press - Grand Rapids,MI,USA
By Kym Reinstadler. SAUGATUCK -- The Saugatuck Board of Education approved
a plan Monday to pay veteran teachers $25,000 over two years to retire
in June. ...
<http://www.mlive.com/news/grpress/index.ssf?/base/news-3/107884774823410.xml>


WINSTED board backs teacher layoffs
Torrington Register Citizen - Torrington,CT,USA
WINSTED - Twenty-three Winchester school teachers won’t have their contracts
renewed for next year, unless the board of education can find another
way to cut ...
<http://www.registercitizen.com/site/news.cfm?newsid=11096601&BRD=1652&PAG=461&dept_id=12530&rfi=6>


THOUSANDS locally deal with pain of layoffs, closings
Lansing State Journal - Lansing,MI,USA
... bankruptcies and some from plants moving overseas. But no matter what
the reason, layoffs hurt. When a plant closes or lays off ...
<http://www.lsj.com/news/business/040310_unemployed_1a-4a.html>


DISTRICT faces more budget cuts, but no layoffs planned
Muskegon Chronicle - Muskegon,MI,USA
... cuts this school year. But the proposed cuts, totaling $116,500, will
not include teacher or staff layoffs. The cuts are necessary ...
<http://www.mlive.com/news/muchronicle/index.ssf?/base/news-4/107884716923490.xml>

has started talking about offering earlier retirements as well.

Usually alcohol sales go up when times are bad. Maybe times aren't bad,though. :P It's just our imagination....

there goes my big discount! :beer:

:beer:

laughter :beer:

Dow 10,385.04 -71.92 (-0.69%)
Nasdaq 1,984.97 -10.19 (-0.51%)
S&P 500 1,133.33 -7.25 (-0.64%)
10-Yr Bond 3.730% +0.011

at 1:52 EST

Dow 10,375.77 -81.19 (-0.78%)
Nasdaq 1,978.91 -16.25 (-0.81%)
S&P 500 1,131.57 -9.01 (-0.79%)
10-Yr Bond 3.713% -0.006

1:30PM: With the major averages unable to make headway to the upside, the Nasdaq having slipped below the psychologically-significant 2000 mark and the S&P 500 having dipped below its 50-day simple moving average at 1138, the major averages have weakened to new session lows... The Dow is underperforming the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 on a relative basis, but only slightly so... In the Dow, 23 of its 30 components are in the red, with laggards of note including Caterpillar (CAT 75.45 -0.95), Alcoa (AA 34.77 -0.88), and Wal-Mart (WMT 59.50 -0.78)...

Procter & Gamble (PG 106.92 +4.43) is the biggest winner, single-handedly contributing over 32 poitns to the composite after raising its Q3 and FY04 guidance and announcing a split and an increase in its dividend last night...NYSE Adv/Dec 1393/1801, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1317/ 1715

1:00PM: Mostly sideways in the last half an hour, with the blue-chip averages vacillating with mild losses and the Nasdaq hugging the flat line... Much of today's session has been spent in a rather trendless trade, with the major averages not straying too far away from the unchanged mark... Such lackluster trade is an extension of the type of action seen through most of February and March, thus far... Valuation concerns remain on the front-burner given how far the market came over the last year... Yet, the focus is shifting to first quarter earnings at this point...

To that effect, several companies had good things to say during what's normally an earnings warning period... Specifically, Procter & Gamble (PG 106.68 +4.19) said it's planning on exceeding the consensus estimate by $0.01-0.02 in Q3 and FY04... Danaher (DHR 90.42 +1.36) raised Q1 EPS to a range of $0.81-0.86 (consensus of $0.80)...


I don't have any clue what pushed it down at 1:00 :shrug:

http://biz.yahoo.com/cbsm-top/040310/d095887d041af2751c0deb68d3b05256_1.html

U.S. stocks slide deep into the red
Wednesday March 10, 1:34 pm ET
By Susan Lerner


NEW YORK (CBS.MW) - Stocks took a turn for the worse Wednesday afternoon with blue chips sliding to session lows and the Nasdaq also tumbling into negative terrain.

"There just doesn't seem as if there's anybody willing to step up and buy a dip," said Joe Liro, equity strategist at Stone & McCarthy Research Associates, who said the pattern has been the same every morning this week -- a little bit of bright prospects in the preopening futures but no follow-through after the market opens.

Ryan Beck's Joe Battipaglia said investors want to buy stocks but are lacking a good reason right now.

snip>
Stone & McCarthy's Liro noted that the market hasn't traded well on good news for four to five weeks and said it's fortunate there hasn't been any strong selling to take the indexes lower than they are.

"I think the catalyst that's going to break this thing is as we get closer to the first quarter earnings numbers and the prospects that they're going to be quite good and that the guidance heading into the second quarter will probably also be OK and that might put a backbone back into this market," Liro concluded.

Decliners outnumbered advancers 1,971 to 1,215 on the New York Stock Exchange and 1,921 to 1,144 on the Nasdaq. Big Board volume stood at about 855 million shares while Nasdaq volume came in at 1.2 billion.

DJIA: If support at 10,500 continues to hold, it can rally above 11,000, but this is highly questionable

NASDAQ: Notice the fan formation. If support at 1,990 holds, it can run to test resistance at 2,150. If it closes below 1,990, it would give a downside target in the 1,950-1,925 zone.

SP500: It looks like an ascending triangle. If it can close above 1,165, the upside objective ought to be 1,210. However, a close below 1,132 would negate the formation and would give a downside target in the 1,100-1,110 zone.


And the numbers at 1:54

Dow 10,381.70 -75.26 (-0.72%)
Nasdaq 1,980.54 -14.62 (-0.73%)
S&P 500 1,132.41 -8.17 (-0.72%)
30-yr Bond 4.666% -0.006

any reports that's anyone's too upset about this on the financial sites I visit. :shrug: :eyes:

hmmm....

Manipulation to give the traders a chance to drive it back up and make some more money? Who was left holding the bag covering their stops, though? Would that explain the calm that seems to exist?

Would think with all the unfavorable economic news out there, there might just be a little panic somewhere unless folks are totally hoodwinked by the Repugs "rosey scenario." :crazy:

(without a request - but here nonetheless :) )

People start off with nothing; they work hard, save their
money, and gradually - if they are in the right time and
the right place - they get rich. Then, they get older. As
they acquire a taste for silks and SUVs, their attention
shifts from making money to spending it. Their economy
changes with them... switching from steel mills and the
smell of diesel fuel to shopping malls that sell Diesel
jeans.


Then come the lies and illusions. They are rich, they come
to believe, not because they (or their parents) worked hard
and saved their money, but because they have some special
gift that guarantees they will be lucky forever. Let
someone else do the hard work of making things, they tell
each other... we're so smart, we don't have to schlep and
save anymore - we can borrow and innovate!


Finally, the lies give way in a bear market of falling
asset prices... recession... and collapsing living
standards... studded with entertaining lawsuits,
bankruptcies, work-outs, and Martha Stewart-type show
trials.


No people were in a better place or a better time than
America after WWII. The baby boomers were delivered into
Eden itself. They had barely to stand on two legs and the
low-hanging fruit fell into their mouths. For not only did
they have the world's most advanced factories... they owned
most of the world's gold. And every day, they got richer,
because they sold more things to the rest of the world than
they bought from it.


But they also had the astonishingly good fortune to control
the world's money. In 1971, Richard Nixon cut the link
between the dollar and gold. From then on, America could
pay its debts in a currency of whatever value it chose.
This was a stroke of luck so puissant it must have caused
brain damage, for they began to believe the most incredible
things: that they could spend their way to wealth... that
the rest of the world would lend them money forever, and
never ask for it back... that 'things' no longer mattered in
the modern, globalized economy... and that their new post-
modern economy was based on 'information and innovation.'


By the time the oldest baby boomers were in their mid- and
late-30s, the U.S. economy was already rolling over from
being focused on production to concentrating on consumer
spending.


By the time they were 42 years old, Alan Greenspan was
already at the Fed, and their nation crossed the threshold
from its position as net-creditor for the rest of the world
to net-debtor status. Instead of building
factories... America was building malls and condos. note: And soon, real estate will be the only asset holding
up the economy... or so suggests Robert Blumen in an article
on the Daily Reckoning website:


Signs The Housing Economy Is About To Crash: A Satire
http://www.dailyreckoning.com/body_headline.cfm?id=3807 ]


By the time these same boomers reached their 50s, the
country was putting up new retail space at a rate 5 times
greater than the increase in population.


Now, the most decrepit of the baby boomers are nearing
60... and what's this? After a long summer in the sun... the
boomers are facing some cold winter arithmetic.


Currently, they are more likely to go bankrupt than get
divorced. Their homes went up about 10% last year. But the
Fed says total debt in the U.S. went up at about the same
rate - 10%, the fastest growth in 15 years.


And if they lose their jobs, they are likely to wait 20.3
weeks before getting a new one - the longest in 20 years.
The average length of joblessness is not far from the
record of 20.8 weeks - set in 1948, before most baby
boomers were born. But the worst is yet to come.


"Recovery Built on Retirees' Backs," begins an article in
TheStreet.com. A boomer couple retiring in 2011 are
expected to cost taxpayers $700,000 in Social Security and
Medicare. The Bush administration estimates the cost of
Medicare alone at $10 trillion over 75 years. But economist
Laurence Kotlikoff says current estimates are much too low.
The real shortfall between Social Security and Medicare
obligations and expected revenues is more like $51
trillion. This leaves only two choices: either raise taxes
immediately 69%... or cut benefits 45%.


Either way, the boomers are more likely to get what they
deserve than what they expect.

yeah, I suppose many of the corp management are boomers.

I was in the tech industry, so all the management was younger than me, the boomers kids with the silver spoons and college degrees paid for them. That place was poorly managed - I got mine, you go get your own attitude.

The boomers have a lot to be blamed for...

1. Regressive tax and economic policy

2. Regressive environmental policy

3. Regressive policies on poverty

4. Regressive policies on education

Not to mention disco music and DJs

down for how foolishly squandered what they worked for.

---------------

I don't know why I posted that UIA. :eyes: It popped into my head after I read the next part of our downfall from Daily Reckoning.

(Those words have popped into my head before, when occasionally I turn on CNBC or catch a few seconds of Kudlow & Kramer before I slam the remote down silencing the damn TV). I think I need a vacation. :D

and they probably hammered the "post" button all by themselves :D

I am not so certain that my ancestors are going to be pounding at me - I rather fancy that they will all be lining up beside me to help me figure out how to do all of needs to be done.

I do believe that we (when we get to be spirits) get to go and pound the shit out of the real culprits :evilgrin:

because I am one. :evilgrin:

http://www.prosperityuk.com/prosperity/articles/yandol.html

In the aftermath of 9-11, an American friend of mine said to me, "It seems we have become the 21st century's most hated nation, and we owe it to ourselves, as much as anyone else -- if not to forgive -- at least to understand."

So how can Prosperity contribute to this understanding? Perhaps by retracing history! Particularly financial history!

And for the purposes of this exercise we need only go back some thirty years to 1971, when President Nixon closed "the gold window".

snip>
ABANDONING THE GOLD DISCIPLINE
Gold may not have been perfect, but at least it meant that there was a certain discipline to international trade. It was internationally recognised that trading balances were related to a nation's reserves of gold.

For example, if a poor nation sold something to the USA, then it could receive the appropriate amount in gold, if it so demanded. This would build the poor nation's gold reserves to the extent that the USA lost its gold reserves. There would be a balance.

Furthermore, when your gold reserves were falling, the value of your currency was falling, and you became less credit worthy in the eyes of your trading partners.

snip>
THIRD WORLD DEBT TAKES OFF
After 1971, other things became readily possible. The now burgeoning US finance establishment conspired with the producer nations to treble the price of crude oil. The deal demanded that the payments made to the Arab nations would be deposited in US banks.

That meant that the US finance powers retained control of the money in the US banks. The American banks soon found themselves so awash with Arab "petrodollars" demanding interest, that they had to take energetic steps to find the money to pay the interest.

They choose to find the interest by lending to the Third World. Indeed, it is around about the early seventies, after the gold standard had been removed, that lending to the Third World really took off.

The cash hungry, resource-rich states of the Third World, were pronounced as being "ripe for development".

So these nations got the loans, their poverty-stricken populations got the debt, and the American bankers got the interest, which they would happily extract for ever more, or until those fragile Third World economies collapsed under the burden.

snip>
Broadly, the US needs to be brought back to earth. If you have something to buy then you need something to sell. You should exchange to the same value.

Today the US gets something for nothing. Real assets are being exchanged for American paper money. America is growing wealthy on the paper money it creates out of nothing, and some day the bubble might burst.

In the meantime, the debt-slaves are getting restless.

at 3:31 EST

Dow 10,294.37 -162.59 (-1.55%)
Nasdaq 1,964.74 -30.42 (-1.52%)
S&P 500 1,123.68 -16.90 (-1.48%)
10-Yr Bond 3.735% +0.016

and there doesn't seem to be a peep from anywhere about why today this is going on?

page you posted the other day.

mortgage default rates going up here in NC and elsewhere, why would anyone be in Real Estate Stocks. Also office space is begging to be leased here.

And yesterday's news about Freddie Mac & Fannie May? More nonsense, methinks.

it is.

http://biz.yahoo.com/cbsm-top/040310/6826a051b0c86843df2b2cf41f661500_1.html

snip>
"People are questioning valuations and starting to say -- You know what, I think we'll have another chance to get back in here - and are taking some money off the table," Hogan said.

Even a bullish earnings outlook from blue chip Procter & Gamble didn't inspire investors.

Stone & McCarthy equity strategist Joe Liro said the market hasn't traded well on good news for four to five weeks, adding that it's fortunate there hasn't been any strong selling to take the indexes lower than they are.

"I think the catalyst that's going to break this thing is as we get closer to the first quarter earnings numbers and the prospects that they're going to be quite good and that the guidance heading into the second quarter will probably also be OK and that might put a backbone back into this market," Liro concluded.

Ryan Beck's Joe Battipaglia says investors want to buy stocks but are lacking a good reason right now.

Selling was broadbased with most sectors printing red. Internet, chemicals, drugs, oil services, gold and brokers posted some of the biggest losses.

Hardware was in the minority as it moved higher.

PC makers were helped after a bullish growth forecast.

today in Ohio.

He said things are fucked up because of Clinton. That was his Major Economic Policy Speech.

PieHole Bomb Blast is all.

When will his handlers tell him to SHUT UP!?!?!?!

and all three are moving back up (in tandem)

Dow 10,315.48 -141.48 (-1.35%)
Nasdaq 1,968.55 -26.61 (-1.33%)
S&P 500 1,125.46 -15.12 (-1.33%)
10-Yr Bond 3.735% +0.016

a bit? 150 instead of 300?

on edit add:

Dow went back down by 156, then each time I hit refresh it went back up to 146 and climbing, fast now dropping in last 2 minutes

before!
Strange last half hour.

(Got side-tracked)

n/t

We will be below 10,000 by the end of the week!

in any of his stupid speeches anytime soon.

The economic news is all bad. Time for chimp to eat a little shit.

Dow 10,296.89 -160.07 (-1.53%)
Nasdaq 1,964.15 -31.01 (-1.55%)
S&P 500 1,123.89 -16.69 (-1.46%)
30-yr Bond 4.678% +0.006

Close: Strike three... The market extended its losses accomplished over the past two sessions in a powerful way today, with the major averages closing down 1.5%, the mid-cap S&P 400 slumping 1.7%, and the small-cap Russell 2000 declining 1.9%... The Dow and the Nasdaq set new lows for the year and are now down 1.5% and 2.0%, respectively, on a year-to-date basis... Volume was not overwhelming, especially on the NYSE, but it accelerated as the session carried on and closed at a heavier total than the levels registered last week...
While most of the morning was spent with the major averages not making much headway one way or another, the Nasdaq's decline below the psychologically-significant 2000 mark and the S&P 500's retreat below its 50-day simple moving average at 1138, combined with a lack of conviction from buyers, drove the market lower through the bulk of the afternoon... The weakness was particularly notable in the face of the generally upbeat corporate developments, including upward guidance from the likes of Procter & Gamble (PG 105.69 +3.20), Danaher (DHR 88.05 -1.01), and Rockwell Auto (ROK 29.19 +0.62)...

The bulk of the sectors closed in the red, with laggards of note including influential sectors such as internet, networking, semiconductor, software, telecom, biotech, drug, banking, industrials, gold, oil services, transportation, broker/dealer....the list goes on... Leaders to the upside were harder to come by, with the lone personal & household sector garnering a bid as a defensive play... Elsewhere, the bond market was little changed, with the 10-year note flat and its yield at 3.72%...

Starting to look that way to me. :shrug:

percentages by any means - yet.

Indexes are back where they were mid December.

The markets will probably be pretty sensitive to retail reports tomorrow. UE reports are out as well, but so far the market shrugs bad UE numbers off and looks at the bright side that rates will stay down. Now that the rate hike threat is pretty much gone for the year, they may start to respond to those numbers as well.

PPI is still on hold, not sure when that will be released.

Broke a few important technicals today, but it's too early to call. Could have a big bargain hunter rally tommorrow. :shrug:

50/50 chance for now. :evilgrin: