NYT: Bush Team Tried to Capture Critical First Judgments

POLITICAL MEMO
Bush Team Tries to Capture Critical First Judgments
By ADAM NAGOURNEY

Published: March 10, 2004


MIAMI, March 9 — With a fierce campaign of attacks led by President Bush, an orchestrated barrage of criticism by Republican elected officials and an imminent sweep of hard-hitting television advertisements, the White House is moving with unusual speed and force to try to discredit John Kerry, the president's likely Democratic challenger.

Mr. Bush's advisers said that in embracing this strategy they were seeking to take advantage of a window of opportunity when the public was paying attention to this election and making critical first judgments on the likely opponent. Mr. Kerry, who won the four Democratic contests on Tuesday, including the one here in Florida, has enjoyed a wave of publicity in the last two weeks....

***

Mr. Bush's engaging his opponent personally this far before Election Day is highly unusual for an incumbent and carries significant risks, Democrats and Republicans said. It could at least momentarily strip him of the advantage of the platform provided by the White House and his role as commander in chief, dropping him on the same ground as Mr. Kerry, the strategists and officials said. It risks putting off independent voters who have historically been alienated by negative campaigning. It could also, some strategists said, numb voters to challenges to Mr. Kerry's credibility and credentials by November....

***

There was a time when Mr. Bush's advisers said the president would, like Mr. Clinton in 1996, try to sail above the fray for as long as through the summer. That Mr. Bush is already attacking Mr. Kerry by name and that his re-election committee is orchestrating an intensifying attack reflects a changing climate where polls show Mr. Bush trailing or even with Mr. Kerry and in which some Republicans have expressed concern about Mr. Bush's usually sure-footed political operation....


http://www.nytimes.com/2004/03/10/politics/campaign/10MEMO.html?pagewanted=1

We are waiting to expose your sorry ass.

I suspect that the Chimp is very personally involved in his campaign. He thinks he knows what he's doing and no one's going to tell him that anything he wants to do is wrong or a bad idea. They are paid to yes him to death and do what he says, no matter how stupid. That's why you're seeing them whoring out 9/11, because the Chimp feels it's his god-given due. And that's why they're starting this "Jobs and Trade Offensive" on the heels of a devastating jobs report and record trade deficits, because only an idiot (the Chimp) would think it's a good idea to start that offensive at this time.

He never did get it right up to the day he was thrown out.
We can call him George "Herbert Hoover" Bush.

Probably starting with a cookie when he was in diapers to his slimy involvement in businesses to Poppy Bush getting him out of Vietnam to the Supreme Court stealing the presidency for him, he's a little spoiled brat who hasn't earned anything in his life. Basically he's saying "You can't make me NOT be president!" Wah.

I really think Bush is toast. Barring any funny business with Osama or BBV I see a Dem win in November. I don't think the re-election people are being very smart so far.

the MEpublican committee out here where I live (he's like a 4th generation hard-core MEpublican) said the other night that bush is a one-termer.

I don't trust W's filthy team as far as I could throw Rover.

They will try to steal the election.

They will pull something in October just like Poppy did when he was Reagan's VP.

They will not hesitate to lie, cheat, and intimidate the press.

If it looks really bad for them in October, they could orchestrate another attack and try to postpone the election.

I will put nothing - nothing! - past these guys. They are far worse than Nixon.

remember, they wanted to invade Iraq years before. 9/11 was merely a pretext for them.


:kick:

The public is waking up to his running scared on that day and now from the commission.

raise $200million, $300million what ever, know this, we are girded for a summer surprise or an October surprise, for below the belt attacks, for mis-under-estimation, master of lowered expectations bullshit. We are ready for what ever hell you plan to unleash when the fact finally permeates Bush's tiny brain that his poll numbers are worse than anemic. It is highly likely he'll lose unless some kind of horrific dramatic action up to and including somehow enticing another attack as long as it can be spun to "rally" around the president. When a sitting president smiles and brags that "he will win re-election" well we all need to be on alert. This fucker doesn't want to or has any intention of losing.
We must brace ourselves and FIGHT BACK!!!!!!!!!

The 200 million would be far better spent in some kind of jobs program for the unemployed.

Since he received so much scorn for the 9/11 ads it is possible that he will be forced not to use references to it. This is a major problem for the dunce, since it is just about all he has going for him. Noticed that he never mentions WMD anymore.

nt

the attack ads by the chimp will NEVER be seen my me or millions of others because of our cable. i rarely watch network teevee anymore and have never seen any of his ads.

Look at these quotes I picked up from freerepublic.com



To: quidnunc
I think it is going to be a disaster for the GOP. They will only barely hold on in the House due to Gerrymandering (1980 DEMs)

I see Bush losing by possibly as much as 8-9 points. DEMs pick up the Senate. GOP wins GA and SC offset by losses in IL, OK, CO, AK. That would give DEMs the Senate.

Right now I do not see GW Bush getting more than approximately 200 EVs.

His campaign is awful so far. Worse yet, he has done enough in Iraq to ensure Kerry comes in just as it is getting cleaned up. Thus Kerry wins the war.

there is a very very real possiblity that this election will shut out the GOP from the White House for a generation


This country will be unrecognizable. We will be more like Canada. Speech will become regulated by the govt. Gay Marriage in all 50 states. and the courts will be gone forever.

3 posted on 03/09/2004 5:54:36 PM PST by raloxk
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To: Miss Marple
I'll tell you why I am so paniced. it isnt the media. but history. I could care less about the media.

Re-elections are lost or won months or even years in advance. This winter from Dec-Feb, is when Bush lost. Strangly, the country seems to be in a more sour mood now than 6 months ago when Bush would have won a landslide. But the economy is clearly better off now. I think voters are very wary of the events of the past 4 years. It is showing up now big time.

Bush campaign right now is following the patterns of past losers and Kerry the pattern of past winners. They are unfocused, lack confidence and are on the defensive


here are some ominous signs:

Stock market is falling (investors sense a Kerry Presidency)

no incumbent party has ever won re-election when OPEC was strong. No incumbent party has ever lost when OPEC was weak. They are stronger now than at anytime since 1980.

The payroll job numbers are herrendous. When GHW Bush lost in 1992 the economy had created over one million jobs that year.

The liberal charge wont work anymore. The country is much much more liberal than in 1988 when people still had a bad taste of Carter in their mouths.

Bush lost he popular vote. No one who ever lost the popular vote ever won re-election


I believe the polls are not capturing the extent of hatred towards Bush and the GOP. Remember 1998? Even the media expected a GOP win. the polls didnt capture how motivated Libs were because of impeachment.


Finally: Bush will lose because Gore didtn run(silly I know). Gore is the biggest loser in the past 100 years. In Dec 2002 when Gore announced he wasnt running, I said to myself "Bush will lose" Figure Gore to stay out in a year when he could have won.

26 posted on 03/09/2004 6:09:34 PM PST by raloxk
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To: raloxk
Q is right. Actually, I think the Pres gets about 6 states: Texas, Utah, Nebraska, Idaho, Wyoming, and Kansas. Dem's get the Senate, probably about 52 votes. We'll keep the house, barely, thanks to the districting and the fact that the Dem's get so obsessed with Kerry and the Senate that they fail to realize the potential of a clean sweep before it's too late for them. Kerry has his way with the judges, including the Supremes.

The fact is, I spent all of 1996 working feverishly on the Dole campaign and local Republican races, waiting for the tide to turn, whicb never happened. The voters won't tune in until after the Olympics, after the conventions, after Labor Day, after the World Series, after Halloween, etc. This is looking to be a repeat of that one. In my then-county, the putrid Dole effort cost us two state reps, several county races, and two judgeships.

Moreover, the Clinton people were so confident of his reelection that the cops at a Clinton rally wore his campaign stickers on their uniforms and beat up several of my friends waving Dole signs ACROSS THE HIGHWAY from the rally. I wasn't there, but I worked in the courthouse part-time, and heard several cops bragging about it.

Warning: when Dem's are confident of victory, they get ugly.

The President is dead in the water. The country will be dead soon. Yes, we will have gay marriage, the Patriot Act will be turned against abortion protesters, and the US will go under UN command. There will be several military exercises that don't amount to much except to be able to spoon-feed the American public that this exercise in {insert name of tiny country here} is a heady success, unlike that fiasco in Iraq when the moron Bush sent our boys to be killed for no good reason.

Kerry is such a weak candidate, but the Bush team is too cocky, too arrogant, to fight back. They won't take the high ground, they won't seriously fight back, either. They'll just muddle through with lame press releases and retreads from BushI/Dole campaigns to say "but, but, but" to the Dem attack dogs.

Eventually, the Dem charges will sink in and redefine Bush so bad that his father looks good by comparison.

Iraq and the economy will both improve at the right (for Kerry) time. Kerry gets to be the World Statesman. Bush has successfully neutralized Al-Queda, so that won't be an issue. Thanks to the dragons that Bush has slayed, Kerry will preside over an era of peace. Thanks to the media talking up the economy, Kerry will preside over an era of "prosperity" too.

39 posted on 03/09/2004 6:15:08 PM PST by cincy29 (very disenheartened)
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To: M. Thatcher
No I did not. We need to stop kidding ourselves, this election is slipping out of Bush's hands. If those commercials and the lame comments about outsourcing and free trade are to be taken as the kick off of the campaign then we are in big trouble. Kerry is running a sharp campaign so far and the flack catchers in the media will see that the flip flop issues do not matter. Kerry is out kicking ass and his campaign is going somewhere. We are up for several Congressional "probes" soon and we will never hear the end of those either. Bush is not running an effective campaign, it is time to face it. Whatever one thinks of polls, he is behind in every one. This time around the voters seem very emotional, very hysterical. I have never seen such constant negative media,not even during the Reagan years, and Reagan handled this sort of thing much better than Bush has so far. It is not going well and we need to stop rationalizing it away. OPEC and the EU will try to do what they can in the summer. Bush is letting Kerry frame the election. Bush is running a reactive campaign. They are running out of time and the voters' minds are being shaped by the Dems, particularly in key rustbelt states. The fact that most people think that there is some huge economic problem were there really isn't one just proves my point. THe media has already done that for the Dems. Bush let them do that. He is not making his points with the voter.

34 posted on 03/09/2004 5:45:40 PM PST by CasearianDaoist ((Nuance THIS!))
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To: COURAGE
Agree (GWB is in trouble).I've posted this before and it remains true. The GWB camp cannot name ONE State Al Gore won in 2000 that they see surly in their favor this year (2004). This spells trouble for an incumbent.Why the GWB camp sat back in 2003 and allowed the premise to be set on the economy & the lies on the war in Iraq is beyond me (it was nothing more then being 100% lazy as hell).If people think the GWB camp spending $160 million in ads is going to change things....you don't have a clue whats about to come in the form of $600 million worth of free ads by the national press! Which a research firm recently put out as the apprx figure the Networks will favor Kerry by.(add that to the $110 Kerry will spend, the $20 million MoveON will spend & the $50 to $75+ million the Unions will spend) and you have to understand...GWB is in trouble...The Grassroots is going to have to deliver this election to GWB (more then ever). Each of us need to be getting the GWB message out (to extended family, co-workers, etc)...and do so in a "positive, constructive, way" (don't try and show you are smarter, or try and win an argument....the goal is to bring people aboard by this Nov).



27 posted on 03/09/2004 5:43:16 PM PST by progop
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To: progop
The President better talk less about the war on terror and more on the economy. The RATS are WAAAAY out in front on this issue and they are just pounding Bush into the ground on jobs and the economy. I don't give one wit about what the so-called economic "experts" on this forum say because the average joe sixpack voter doesn't have a college degree in economics and when he or she steps into that voting booth all they remember is they don't have a job! Right or wrong they are GOING TO BLAME BUSH!!! We need to realize we ARE in deep deep trouble here folks. The funny thing is the RATS have NO PLAN to spur job growth either but they aren't Bush and THAT is what the average voter will see. I'll be glad to apologize for this rant come November IF I turn out to wrong.



52 posted on 03/09/2004 5:53:11 PM PST by teletech (Friends don't let friends vote DemocRAT!)
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I thought they were all in comfortable denial.

I disagree with some of their points though. Kerry will NOT "get credit" for winning the war in Iraq, because it is an unwinnable mess that will haunt us for years to come. Bush really screwed us all with that one.

The Freepers are worried that Kerry will take away their free speech? I thought that's what A$$croft was doing. I think they've got the wrong party there. If they really want free speech, they ought to try our side of the pool!

Iraq is going to be a decades long nightmare, courtesy of Smirk and Kerry. A little Karma for Kerry's pro invasion vote, I suppose

I counted only twenty spelling errors. Seems a tad low for one page.

I'm trying to understand the 'logic' of this Freep poster:

The President is dead in the water. The country will be dead soon. Yes, we will have gay marriage, the Patriot Act will be turned against abortion protesters, and the US will go under UN command. There will be several military exercises that don't amount to much except to be able to spoon-feed the American public that this exercise in {insert name of tiny country here} is a heady success, unlike that fiasco in Iraq when the moron Bush sent our boys to be killed for no good reason.

Is this poster being sarcastic when he says Smirk sent troops to Iraq to be killed for "no good reason" or does he think the invasion was a mistake?

Where do these guys get the idea that being a member of the U.N. will lead to the United States "coming under the command of the U.N.?" WTF?

I shouldn't even be trying to understand their blather, but this one seemed particularly convoluted and I thought.........

Stock market is falling (investors sense a Kerry Presidency)

:eyes:

And everything was doing great during the Clinton years because invenstors sensed Bush getting elected in 2000? Or wait, wasn't it because of Reagan? Which is it?

"Warning: when Dem's are confident of victory, they get ugly."

A clear case of projection...

Edited to add: Actually, repukes get ugliest when they are going to lose.

"Bring it on" McShrub --- I dare YOU

Some of them actually have a clue though not enough of them to put it all together. No use arguing with these fools, but they're some amusement.

It's simply not a majority conservative country anymore. Liberals broke the 50% barrier in the electorate in 2002/03, Democrats have renewed themselves over the past twenty years, the rest is hankering about details.

Watching those clever halfwits blame it on 'the media' and other bizarre rationalizations... well, they're never going to get over the defeats they're going to take end of this year and in 2006 or the lurch the country is going to take into the Modern Age in the next few years. They'll remain fun to ridicule.

This country will be unrecognizable. We will be more like Canada. Speech will become regulated by the govt. Gay Marriage in all 50 states. and the courts will be gone forever.

I finally got to watch Bowling for Colombine in it its entirety the other night.

It was funny watching Moore walk up to people's houses and try the doors to see if they were unlocked (many were) with no fear whatsoever of getting shot at or sued.

Why are Repugs so bloody frightened of Canada? Are they still upset over that White House thing?

The bushbots have realized that the electorate is getting used to the idea that
1) Bush could lose
2) Kerry is a viable alternative to Bush
3) there are many things about Bush they really don't like.

This decision to attack early will only "work" on point number 2 if it works at all. It will actually reinforce points 1 and 3 and may drive some potential Bush voters to Kerry and perhaps a few to Nader. Bush's real problem is the ABB group which is at least 40% and probably closer to 45% and this will not "work" with them at all. In fact it may add to them by persuading some potential Nader voters that the only way Bush gets beaten is a vote for Kerry.

I said sorta the same thing below.

W's number is 47% that is what he got in 2000 and that is about the best he can do. He isn't going to draw sizeable amounts over but being president and cranking up the fear machine will help to bring some over BUT he has lost some of his original 47%.

Military families (including guard and reservists) have black and white examples of where they were before 2001 and now. That is a base he had to be counting on. I think that the vote in and around Ft.Stewart Ga (3ID going back to Iraq) is not what could be reasonably expected before.

The elderly are finding out about the medicare bill (despite the "nothing has changed" TV ads) and they don't like it.

Even some Reagan republicans see him not as Ronnie was and much more radical.

W does have the black box voting working for him but that may be changing as more places are going to require some way to check the results.

All together we get back to where we started- a VERY close race with W running out of gas already.ON EDIT-But let's not start counting chickens just yet.

Every incumbent faces an election in which he or she is what the referendum is about. The best way to win is to say "I have done this and I have done that...." well they can't say that. All they have really done (achieved) is creating a war that everyone now knows was a mistake and that they lied about.

They can wrap themselves up with 9/11 all they want to but the benefit of the doubt W had when everyone was trying to figure out what in the hell just happened is GONE. I have had non-politicos say to me "What is he going to run on?" and "Yeah after 9/11 he did a good job but then look what he used 9/11 to do...".

They are in big trouble. They have been believeing their press clippings for too long.

something he was not. He had to--all that he said he was, was a lie. His whole schtick so far has been nothing but a great big PR effort to make it appear he is gifted and talented as a president as well as the rather inane, insipid wife, who is also billed as a gifted and taltented first lady. He and she are neither, and, as time went by, the more they added on to that phoney image the worse it became for them both.

The problem is that George was manufactured to look like a president and play one on TV.

They thought it would be a shoo in--the second term--now he has to live up to some sort of image and he is failing miserably--and so is she. The Potemkin couple looks really bad these days--sloppy,bloated unkempt, wrinkled and unable to make impromtu remarks because they cannot remember what the last manufactured image portrayed and Karen or Karl did not give them the talking points. Thus we have a great deal of stupid looking and stupid sounding utterances. That is the real couple.

No way can George measure up to Kerry.

He knows he's a phony when he looks at himself in the mirror every morning. If not for avenging Poppy's detractors, he'd be just as happy to take up the life he had prior to his entering politics and never being heard from again.

Down deep, he knows that he is completely incompetent to handle the job and that he has fucked things up royally for millions of people...assuming that he is ever in a reflective mood.....naaaah. nevermind. I take it back

talk to the cows. Thing is he has made another complete and
total mess that he gets to walk away from. He and his pals have looted the treasury and lined their pockets on the backs of the poor and downtrodden. They disgust me.