STOCK MARKET WATCH, Monday 15 March (#1)

stock market with the Spain bombing and elections.

There are considerable Market Smarts on this thread every day. Can someone enlighten us about the effect of the Spanish elections on the Murkin Markets?

:donut: all around,
dbt

Hard to tell what the outcome may be. Two points.

- Bush has lost an important ally in the war, taking home the Spanish troops may be a precedent, and result in less support/replacement for U.S. troops in Iraq. Less chances that NATO will step in. And most people are aware that the occupation is a very costly thing.

- Terror has come to Europe (not that this is something new to the continent, but this is a large attack), meaning more anxiety and less stability, something that most definitely will hinder the already weak recovery of the markets.

German stocks today are declining, Euro is rising again (against Dollar and Pound).

That idea is a holdover from WWII.

What the Spanish elections represent is a loss of confidence in America's vision of a sustainable coalition war. How this will parlay into stock averages is beyond me. I do not believe that we've ever seen this happen before.

The Spanish elections certainly hold a lot of unknown changes.

"War is good for the economy", was one of the idiotic things that came from the mouth of the owner of my former company before the Iraq war. I remember the President and VP both looking at each other and rolling theirs and shaking their heads when he said that in a meeting.

is "really" due to the bombings is questionable. I am a bit cynical when it comes to the markets. Someone, somewhere will tie a big move to a headline in an effort to explain the move, but how much of that is based on fact versus the authors assumptions is usually questionable. A lot of times I think they search the headlines for something that fits.

The latest example I can cite is when the market took a fairly big dump. The reason given was a suspicious powder found in the mail-room - It was found and widely reported the morning before the dump and yet they gave this as a reason for the late afternoon drop the next day.

But, like I said, I'm a cynic. They will occasionally mention over-valuation, but rarely give it as the primary reason for a drop. Over-valuation tends to be cited as a secondary cause, if at all.

Not much in the Market Update blather yet.

6:33AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -6.2. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -12.0.
6:32AM: FTSE...4448.10...-19.30...-0.4%. DAX...3859.79...-55.59...-1.4%.

6:32AM: Nikkei...11317.90...+155.15...+1.4%

And to think that a person can undermine one capitalism's main pillars by mailing corn starch in a leaky package.

EDIT: Is that a sad commentary on our markets or what?

8:03AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -5.3. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -8.5. The futures market is noticeably lower this morning in a rebound from Friday's gains, which left the major averages higher by 1.1-2.1% for the day, although still in the red for the week... Contributing to the negative sentiment are losses in the European bourses, which are led lower by the Spanich IBEX (-3.45%) as signs that al Qaeda planted the deadly bombs in the Spanish capital last week forced investors to reassess the risk of owning equities...


:eyes: Yeah, right. Like al Qaeda is the ONLY risk to owning equities. Sheesh!

More Orwellian speak, democracy means pro-American if the people of a country aren't smart enough to vote that way then they don't deserve the right to democratic elections.

it needs to constantly move ahead to survive. If it stops or stagnates, it dies.

And today, after the Spain elections, the swimming pool got a little smaller for the shark.

What a good description. I'm going to use it often if you don't mind.

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 88.81 Change -0.31 (-0.35%)

related articles:

http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1078381773806

Dollar slips as al-Qaeda fears stalk the market

The US dollar slid against most major currencies in London morning trade on Monday as an aversion to risk once again dominated the foreign exchange markets.

The swiss franc, perceived as a "safe haven" currency in times of geopolitical uncertainty, was the prime beneficiary as the markets factored in the likelihood that a group linked to al-Qaeda was behind last week's Madrid bombings.

The election of a Socialist government in Spain, led by Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero, an outspoken critic of the invasion of Iraq, also threatened to further isolate the US and UK politically.

However, other factors were also at play as the dollar reversed the modest fightback it staged last week. "The momentum seems to be shifting a little bit away from the dollar, it has run its course over the last week," said Tim Fox, head of market strategy at National Australia Bank.

"The fundamentals do not necessarily support a stronger dollar. The trade deficit is getting wider, the jobs situation is a problem, the fiscal situation is a problem and it looks like al-Qaeda is targeting the political process," added Mr Fox, in a reference to the US presidential elections later this year.

...more...

http://www.forbes.com/business/newswire/2004/03/15/rtr1298379.html

FOREX-Dollar yields to Swiss franc on security jitters

LONDON, March 15 (Reuters) - The dollar fell broadly on Monday, losing as much as one percent against the Swiss franc as growing suspicion al Qaeda planted last week's deadly bombs in Madrid encouraged a flight to safe-haven assets.

Spain announced at the weekend it had recovered a videotape purportedly from al Qaeda saying the Islamic militant group carried out the attacks in retaliation for Spain's support for the U.S.-led war against Iraq.

"We are seeing a flight to safety," said Aziz McMahon, foreign exchange strategist at ABN AMRO.

"The terror risk is weighing on the dollar and the market now senses an increased threat of attacks in the United States, particularly ahead of the (November) election."

Anger over the Spanish government's handling of the blasts, which killed 200 people, helped Spain's opposition Socialists to victory in a sensational election upset.

...more...

http://www.business-standard.com/smart/story.asp?Menu=25&story=36355

BUFFETTOLOGY

“I remain bearish on the dollar”

excerpt:

During 2002 we entered the foreign currency market for the first time in my life, and in 2003 we enlarged our position, as I became increasingly bearish on the dollar. We have – and will continue to have – the bulk of Berkshire’s net worth in US assets. But in recent years our country’s trade deficit has been force-feeding huge amounts of claims on America to the rest of the world. For a time, foreign appetite for these assets readily absorbed the supply. Late in 2002, however, the world started choking on this diet, and the dollar’s value began to slide against major currencies. Even so, prevailing exchange rates will not lead to a material letup in our trade deficit. So whether foreign investors like it or not, they will continue to be flooded with dollars. The consequences of this are anybody’s guess. They could, however, be troublesome – and reach, in fact, well beyond currency markets. As an American, I hope there is a benign ending to this problem.
Then again, perhaps the alarms I have raised will prove needless: Our country’s dynamism and resiliency have repeatedly made fools of naysayers. But Berkshire holds many billions of cash-equivalents denominated in dollars. So I feel more comfortable owning foreign- exchange contracts that are at least a partial offset to that position.
When we can’t find anything exciting in which to invest, our ‘default’ position is US Treasuries, both bills and repos. No matter how low the yields on these instruments go, we never ‘reach’ for a little more income by dropping our credit standards or by extending maturities. Charlie and I detest taking even small risks unless we feel we are being adequately compensated for doing so. About as far as we will go down that path is to occasionally eat cottage cheese a day after the expiration date on the carton.

Corporate governance

In judging whether corporate America is serious about reforming itself, CEO pay remains the acid test. To date, the results aren’t encouraging. A few CEOs, such as Jeff Immelt of General Electric, have led the way in initiating programs that are fair to managers and shareholders alike. Generally, however, his example has been more admired than followed.

It’s understandable how pay got out of hand. When management hires employees, or when companies bargain with a vendor, the intensity of interest is equal on both sides of the table. One party’s gain is the other party’s loss, and the money involved has real meaning to both. The result is an honest-to-God negotiation.

But when CEOs (or their representatives) have met with compensation committees, too often one side – the CEO’s – has cared far more than the other about what bargain is struck. A CEO, for example, will always regard the difference between receiving options for 100,000 shares or for 500,000 as monumental.

To a comp committee, however, the difference may seem unimportant – particularly if, as has been the case at most companies, neither grant will have any effect on reported earnings. Under these conditions, the negotiation often has a ‘play-money’ quality.

Overreaching by CEOs greatly accelerated in the 1990s as compensation packages gained by the most avaricious – a title for which there was vigorous competition – were promptly replicated elsewhere.

The couriers for this epidemic of greed were usually consultants and human relations departments, which had no trouble perceiving who buttered their bread. As one compensation consultant commented: “There are two classes of clients you don’t want to offend – actual and potential.”

In proposals for reforming this malfunctioning system, the cry has been for ‘independent’ directors. But the question of what truly motivates independence has largely been neglected.

...more...

I guess we will have to see how much yen the BoJ has to throw at the dollar today - since it is still the middle of March - not the end - I believe that they will continue to hold the dollar above 110 yen and strive for 112.

Have a Great Day Ozy and all the Marketeers! :hi:

401K and IRA's that are in mutual funds. :-(

Swiss francs? Euros? Yen? GBP? which happy land should our money go hide out in??

Wonder why they haven't been released yet?

http://www.bls.gov/ppi/delaynotice.htm

Delay of Release of PPI for January 2004 and February 2004

As announced on February 17, the release of the Producer Price Index (PPI) for January 2004 has been delayed from the originally scheduled date of February 19, 2004. In addition, as announced on March 5, the release of February data originally scheduled for Friday, March 12, has also been postponed.

The delays have been caused by unexpected difficulties in the conversion of PPI data from the Standard Industrial Classification system to the North American Industry Classification System. These difficulties have taken far longer to resolve than we originally anticipated.

We have made substantial progress towards completing the calculations underlying the January 2004 PPI. When revised release dates for the January and for the February 2004 Producer Price Indexes have been determined, we plan to announce them at least one day ahead of time on this web page and through news advisories.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics expresses its sincere apologies to those who have experienced any problems as a result of this continuing delay.


Link to News Advisory Issued on February 17, 2004

http://www.bls.gov/ppi/advisory02172004.htm

Last Modified Date: March 12, 2004

and a Reuters story

http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml?type=economicNews&storyID=4558945

U.S. Labor Dep't cites big strides on delayed PPI

WASHINGTON, March 12 (Reuters) - The U.S. Labor Department said on Friday it had made "substantial progress" toward completing work on the delayed Producer Price Index for January, and repeated it planned to give at least a day's notice when it sets a release date for the data.

"We have made substantial progress towards completing the calculations underlying the January 2004 PPI," the Bureau of Labor Statistics, a statistical agency within the department, said in a statement on its Web site.

The wholesale price data had originally been scheduled for release on Feb. 19, over three weeks ago, but was postponed indefinitely when BLS ran into trouble converting the data to a new industrial classification system.

BLS was also forced to postpone the report for February, which was to have been released earlier on Friday.

...more...

I'm very suspicious of ANYTHING this government says and does.

phrase. They seem to use it a lot, whether explaining increased attacks on our troops in Iraq or fudging numbers. :eyes:

At least, that's the story.....here's an update:

http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml?type=economicNews&storyID=4558945

:tinfoilhat: Of course, some suspect that they don't like the numbers the calculations are giving them...

The Fed has been touting low inflation as the reason for keeping interest low and I'm thinking releasing numbers that show that inflation IS a problem wouldn't look good for them.

But what do I know? Joining you in the :tinfoilhat:

American jobs misery blocks rate rise

WASHINGTON (AFP) - Miserably slow American jobs growth has blocked a rise in US interest rates for months, and possibly the rest of 2004, analysts said.

Federal Reserve (news - web sites) chairman Alan Greenspan (news - web sites) and his colleagues meet Tuesday, and the only debate is whether they will tweak a policy statement on the economic and interest rate outlook.

The key federal funds target rate, lying at a 1958 low of 1.0 percent since June last year, is locked up until the labor market breaks out of an almost unprecedented lethargy, analysts said.

story

than possibly sectors that have to do with home purchases and lending, I just don't see it. Companies aren't investing in their infrastructure with these low rates. This will only increase people cashing in their future by borrowing more and more equity. Won't this just continue to inflate the real estate bubble?

Meanwhile, inflation is coiling up, ready to spring to new heights as the economy continues to be buried in easy dollars. The longer they wait, the tighter the spring? Will we see hyperinflation in goods and services at the same time the real estate bubble pops and deflation hits real estate big time?

Maybe I'm just a worry-wart. Will we be the next Argentina, or Japan?

Friends of mine have refinanced at greatly lower rates. This means that there's more money to spend and save each month. This windfall is nice at first. The benefactors are the bars, restaurants, auto mechanics and clothing stores. Occasionally, the monthly savings can translate into home renovation or a new entertainment center. Many of these forementioned items are either irregular (auto mechanic) or one-time expenditures (how many times do you get your house painted or the water heater replaced?). The income that makes this possible is not sustainable because of inflation.

I do not care one tiny bit what the Fed says: inflation exists at the gas pump, in our utility bills and at the grocery store. Many, if not all, of these items are not figured into the inflation index because of so-called pricing 'volatility'. You and I know that even though the government refuses to ackowledge it.

The benefactors of an sudden increase in re-fi money will evidence positive gains but inflation eats away at their positive boons too. With my evidence being your typically rhetorical sort (on a message board) - some restaurants are already including gratuity as standard in every guest check. I am not saying that this is their effort to stay ahead of inflation. It is, quite obviously, an effort to make the house more money.

consumerism, but manufacturers aren't really utilizing them for capital investment and job creation as would historically be the case and reason for low rates - Does that sound about right, or am I off the mark on this one?

Your take on this sounds very correct. There are many good reasons for low rates and accompanying tax benefits for small businesses.

Some evidence suggests that there is some capital investment but only with short-term goals. Take the rise in temps gaining employment compared with a dramatic shortfall in full-time positions being created and filled. With regard to taxes: Money comes back to businesses from the Federal Reserve due to accelerated capital depreciation on machinery in the last round of tax cuts. But what is happening with that money? It's not creating overwhelming long-term benefits for employees. For all we know, this money could go toward paying down the note on said equipment that may have been purchased three years ago. This is entirely speculative but reasonable as I personally benefitted from the new equipment depreciation rules.

the Bushies have given us for three years. We all seem to have gotten things better with our own observations than the lies they are pushing.

Your observation was so interesting about the "restaurants," and what th average American is doing with their refi money. :-(

Now that you point it out, it's what we've been seeing here in Boomtown NC. The restaurants are filled, while the newspaper reports record mortgage defaults, job losses and bankruptcy's.

Nothing like using your last refi dollars to eat out at that new franchised restaurant before you have to move into the "double wide." ugh...

lets keep tinkering with the recipe... = delay in report.

THE DOW REPORT
"The Rising Wedge"

In the first section of this report I want to revisit my discussion from back in December on the Rising Wedge. This is only one of the many reasons that I have maintained my long term bearish view. As you can see from the weekly chart of the S&P 500 below, this massive Rising Wedge worked all the way to its apex and has now broken through its lower boundary. The indicator at the top of the chart is a 6-week moving average of the advancing issues. I had termed this “market fuel” and warned about the fact that we were not seeing it confirm the rally into the apex of the Rising Wedge.

This break now appears ominous and will only be corrected by a move back above the recent highs. We will also continue to monitor this development as we move forward on this wrap up.

<cut>
Sector Watch

Last week I began a so-called portfolio of sectors that I want to use as an additional tool that we can use to monitor the health of the market. The basic concept is that we will use these sectors as either confirmers or non-confirmers just as we use the Transports and the Industrials to confirm one another. This week I would like to introduce a few other sectors as well. Below is a chart of the Box Makers Index. Last week I explained that that the trend is still positive as long as we are seeing higher trading cycle highs and lows. As you can see, in the chart below this index failed to exceed the January highs and has subsequently violated the February lows. The down trend in this sector has been confirmed. I might add that this makes sense as we have also seen the break down in the Transports and we all know that the Transports are representative of the shipment of goods. Those goods are generally in boxes, so these two indexes tend to confirm each other.

<cut>
The next sector index is the Gold Bugs Index known as the HUI. I had warned about a correction in this index sometime back. This index made a double top in December and January. From the January top the December trading cycle low was violated. This confirmed the trend change. From the lower trading cycle low in early February the HUI attempted to rally, but again failed. However, the early March trading cycle low was made at a higher level than the early February trading cycle low, so this is potentially very positive. Also, notice that the HUI appears to be forming what is known as a symmetric triangle. In Martin J. Pring’s book, Technical Analysis Explained, he describes symmetric triangles as follows: These patterns are also known as coils, for the fluctuation in price and volume diminishes as the pattern is completed. Finally, both price and (usually) volume react sharply, as if a coil spring had been wound tighter and tighter and then snapped free as prices broke out of the triangle. Generally speaking, triangles seem to work best when the breakout occurs somewhere between one-half and three-fourths of the distance between the widest peak and rally and the apex. This index can go either way and we will just have to see which way it breaks.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

Warren Buffett, with cash piling up at Berkshire Hathaway, said he invested $12 billion in currencies, held onto most of his high-yield, high-risk bonds and regretted not selling some of Berkshire's stock holdings. ARTICLE

The OPEC oil cartel plans to press ahead with a production cut of one million barrels per day (bpd) next month despite soaring oil prices, Qatari Oil Minister Abdullah bin Hamad al-Attiyah said Tuesday. ARTICLE

The year 2003 was marked by a string of oil surprises. It is beginning to look as if "normal" is an oxymoron when used with the oil market. Perhaps 2004 will be the year when more answers than surprises occur. ARTICLE

Specifically, America's savings rate has plunged to the lowest level ever. So we're shocked to find we can't pay for our retirement? That is beyond poor judgment. It's simply delusional. ARTICLE

http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/posts/dancy/diner.html

manufacturing index? :shrug:

9:45AM: As predicted by the futures market, the cash market is off to a lower open, with technology sectors spearheading the decline... Much of the weakness can be attributed to participants' apprehension with regard to the geopolitical scene, which appears to be more uncertain as a result of last week's bombings in Madrid, which are being attributed in Al Qaeda... Also keep in mind that the market advanced 1.1-2.1% for the major averages on Friday, so at least some weakness is not surprising in a rebound...

This morning's economic reports supported the claim of continued expansion in the economy, with the NY Empire State report checking in at 25.33 (consensus 38.0) and Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization reports coming in at 0.7% and 76.6%, respectively... While the NY Empire State Index was below the consensus, it still shaped up for a very solid reading, only suggesting that the pace of growth is slower than in February...

My impression is that this is just more bad news for the employment numbers - with production up and orders down.

news again, hey?

http://money.cnn.com/2004/03/15/news/economy/industrial_production/

snip>
The Fed report's strength was slightly out of synch with the results of national and regional surveys of manufacturing activity -- as has often been the case in recent months.

When surveys from the Institute for Supply Management, the New York Fed, the Philadelphia Fed, and the National Association of Purchasing Managers in Chicago were robust early in the year, the Fed's report on industrial activity was slower.

Now that some of the other survey numbers have slowed recently, the Fed's survey has gained strength.

Some economists wonder if the other surveys aren't as reliable as the hard numbers coming from the Commerce Department and the Fed, which have shown a decent, but not neck-breaking, pace of factory activity as 2004 began.

At 76.6 percent, the rate of capacity utilization is still 4.7 percentage points below its 1972-2002 average.

more...

A co-worker (sales manager U.S.) just returned from a two weeks U.S. trip, including a fair (biotech/pharmaceutical). He says most managers don't really believe in a sustainable recovery - it's only hot air. General sales predictions for the U.S. were quite good at the beginning of the year, but have dropped sharply since then.

Does this mean that there is an expected drop in pharmaceuticals, or across the economy in general?

It's just our small part of the market, and only anecdotal observations with some reporting from partners, not a general overview or research. But then we sell to allmost all of the pharm giants, and their buying budget is way tight.

9:32
Dow 10,205.71 -34.37 (-0.34%)
Nasdaq 1,974.72 -10.01 (-0.50%)
S&P 500 1,117.49 -3.08 (-0.27%)
10-Yr Bond 3.747% -0.013

Dollar Trims Losses as U.S. Inflows Surge

By Gertrude Chavez

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The dollar rose above lows hit earlier on Monday, supported by U.S. capital inflows data that came in well above market expectations.

But analysts said geopolitical tensions caused by bombings in Madrid last week in which 200 died still dogged the dollar, given fears in the market of possible further attacks.

U.S. net capital inflows climbed to $100.2 billion in January from $80.8 billion in December.

"Another very solid number that came in well above expectations, which should put to rest any lingering doubts about the ability for the U.S. to adequately fund its current account deficit," said Michael Woolfolk, senior currency strategist at Bank of New York. Markets were expecting inflows of around $80 billion for January.

"There will be no collapse to the US dollar," he added.

more

"There will be no collapse to the US dollar". Citing the January numbers as evidence foreigners are willing to fund out deficit. Yet no mention of BoJ intervention and the reasoning behind their madness.

Woolfolk - is that a real name or a pun on pulling the wool over folks eyes? :evilgrin:

Dow -78.60
S&P -8.96
NASDAQ -20.74

DJ -84.15
NASDAQ -23.50
S&P -9.83

CBS marketwatch is saying it is because of terror worries at factories in the NY area.

will be OK....:evilgrin:

http://sg.biz.yahoo.com/040315/15/3irtr.html

snip>
General elections come just over four months after Prime Minister Abdullah Badawi took over the reins of power from Mahathir Mohamad. Since then, the country's new leader has consolidated his political position by distinguishing himself from his predecessor. He has launched a crackdown on corruption and a review of the police force and has put a halt to costly mega-projects - all of which should give him political mileage at the polls.

But perhaps Abdullah's biggest step has been his move away from Mahathir's stance on the ringgit. Mahathir was a staunch supporter of the ringgit peg ($1=MYR3.80), which he introduced along with capital controls at the height of the Asian financial crisis in 1998. The new prime minister has carved out a less rigid policy for himself on the peg, letting Malaysians and foreign investors alike know that altering the peg is no longer taboo.

Earlier this year, Abdullah told investors that Malaysia wouldn't be "dogmatic" about adhering to the peg. Retaining the position of finance minister, he appointed Nor Mohamed Yakcop, who helped to design the peg regime, as second finance minister. Nor Mohamed was quick to echo Abdullah's remarks, saying Malaysia has "no ideological attachment" to the peg.

These comments, coupled with the dollar's decline, fueled speculation that a change to the peg regime is in the offing.

snip>
Mahathir regularly championed the peg as evidence of his ability to challenge the West. He rarely missed an opportunity to wield the peg as an "I-told-you-so" to currency traders and multilateral institutions like the International Monetary Fund, as well as supporters of the international financial system itself. Mahathir's ownership of the peg was such that it became nearly synonymous with his persona as a leader.

What better way then for Abdullah to mark his own territory than by showing flexibility on the peg.

The rewards already are visible, not just in the way Abdullah has chiseled his own profile for the Malaysian electorate, but in the actions of foreign investors who have begun to sit up and take notice.

Markets are reflecting the greater potential for a change in the peg, with an inflow of foreign funds into short-term debt and equity instruments swelling Malaysia's foreign reserves. International reserves ballooned to $49.2 billion at the end of February from $40.7 billion at the end of September, the month before Abdullah assumed power.

more...

renegade. My take from this that Abdullah may be more friendly to the US? He's interested in more "personal profits," than Mathir? Or did I read that wrong. The article seems contradictory in many ways. But, then not knowing the nuances of Malasian culture or their monetary policy makes it hard for me to understand.

Mahathir was. I am not sure what that will do for his domestic support. Mahathir was more supportive of Islamic nations coming together economically rather than play the games of the West.

It could get interesting as time goes on. I don't know if Abdullah is as accomodating as he is claiming to be right now. Time will tell.

11am

Dow 10,139.12 -100.96 (-0.99%)
Nasdaq 1,957.25 -27.48 (-1.38%)
S&P 500 1,108.90 -11.67 (-1.04%)
10-Yr Bond 3.762% +0.002

U.S. stocks extend pullback

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) - U.S. stocks fell early Monday due to renewed terrorism fears and disappointing data on factory activity in the New York area.

These developments overwhelmed an acquisition and positive earnings comments from General Electric, upgrades of three other Dow components, and a better than expected reading on February's industrial production.

The possibility of al-Qaida's involvement in last week's bombings in Spain was the main drag on sentiment as further evidence to suggest this scenario surfaced over the weekend.

Also, a Socialist party victory in Spain dealt a blow to President Bush's global support for the war in Iraq. The new prime minister has pledged to bring the country's troops home from Iraq by June 30.

story continues with some econ fundamentals

Bye all. My son and I must leave for the great outdoors. I'll check back later, if possible.

Have a wonderful rest of your day!

Ozy :hi:

That much touted place they like to point to could be in jeopardy :nopity:

We want a REAL DEAL coupled with equal and fair trade that considers the Whole large space ship we are riding on



STS085-503-119 Aral Sea, Kazakhstan August 1997
Once the fourth largest inland body of water in the world, the Aral Sea, as seen in this southeast-looking view, has shrunk to a fraction of its former size and is now the eighth largest inland body of water in the world. Water has been diverted to cotton irrigation since the late 1950’s from the two rivers that feed the Aral Sea, the Amu-Darya in the south, and the Syr-Darya in the northeast. Pollution of the waters of the Aral Sea from heavy usage of the fertilizers and pesticides has been occurring since the 1960’s. Also occurring was runoff of chemicals used in chemical weapons testing on the Ust-Jurt Plateau (right center of the image) by the former USSR military, which was halted in the mid 1980’s. Salinity of the Aral Sea has tripled since 1960 and nearly twenty species of wildlife and vegetation have become extinct. The Aral Sea, because of the decline, has become two separate bodies of water. The Little Aral Sea, or the northern portion, has begun to rise due to the construction of a small dam to hold the water in and slow the rate of evaporation. Irrigated land in the Syr-Dayra River Valley has declined somewhat in the 1990’s, thus allowing water to reach the Little Aral Sea. The dam in the Little Aral Sea is being constructed and financed by the government of the Republic of Kazakhstan and the small cites that once bordered the Aral Sea. Water levels in the Little Aral Sea have risen by as much as 10 feet (3 meters) during the mid and late 1990’s. With no water reaching the southern Aral Sea through Amu-Darya, some scientists predict that this portion of the sea will disappear by the year 2020.
(snip)
http://eol.jsc.nasa.gov/sseop/EFS/photoinfo.pl?PHOTO=STS085-503-119

they really wait for a 350 drop in the Dow, or move sooner?

Since that's all anyone cares about in "mainstream" financial reporting these days. I suppose that's rightly so...since they aren't in the business of being sociologists where "impact" of this "moderately bullish" projection based on "numbers" seems laughable to most of us out here.

Georgian girl that stole the heart of a rich plantation owner. Before they were allowed to marry the young girl had to be sent off to finishing school so as not to embarass the plantation owners family. She was sitting on the Veranda with all the other rich wives as they were bragging about all the wonderful things they had. To each one, she would respond with "my, well that's fine, just fine". She impressed them all wonderfully, until one confronted her by uncovered the well kept secret of her schooling. The others had never heard of a "finishing school" and were curious as to what it was about. They asked what was the most important lesson she learned while there. Her answer, "I learned to use the phrase fine, just fine whenever I was tempted to say F*ck you"

At 12:02
DJ -127.33
NASDAQ -36.46
S&P -14.61

This has erased everything that was made up on Friday.

:D

Never heard that one before...

As in, the Dow drops below 9999.

Dow 10,122.97 -117.11 (-1.14%)
Nasdaq 1,948.98 -35.75 (-1.80%)
S&P 500 1,106.69 -13.88 (-1.24%)
30-yr Bond 4.692% -0.018
NYSE Volume 710,823,000
Nasdaq Volume 840,829,000

And no mention yet today on volumes in the blather:

12:30PM: The market continues to weaken, with the major averages now lower by 1.1-1.7%... Participants have shown no interest in using the dip as a buying opportunity thus far, with the major averages trending lower through the entirety of the session... The market's move lower is being underscored by similar activity in the semiconductor sector, which is lower by 1.9% as indicated by the SOX index... Note that the SOX index has been at the forefront of the Nasdaq's weakening through most of the past two months and is 15% below its 52-week high set on January 12...
Today, the sector is struggling despite CIBC's comments that its too early to roll out of the Market-Weight rated sector... The biggest laggards in the group include KLA Tencor (KLAC 51.93 -1.16), STMicroelectronics (23.25 -1.05), and Xilinx (XLNX 37.74 -0.81)... NYSE Adv/Dec 817/2336, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 624/2382

Seeing that this week marks a quadruple witching options and futures expiration, the market may become more volatile as the week carries on... To that effect, the major averages have started to reach higher in the last couple of minutes, noticeably improving the totals for the major averages...NYSE Adv/Dec 835/2347, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 668/2364

Dow 10,133.49 -106.59 (-1.04%)
Nasdaq 1,948.89 -35.84 (-1.81%)
S&P 500 1,107.53 -13.04 (-1.16%)
30-yr Bond 4.705% -0.005

NYSE Volume 894,679,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,049,246,000

1:30PM: The uptick mentioned in the last update proved to be only short-lived, as the major averages are again vacillating near their respective session lows... The Dow is outperforming the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq on a relative basis, although only 4 of its 30 components are in the green, including United Technologies (UTX 88.66 +1.31) and Citigroup (C 49.43 +0.12)... UTX was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Deutsche Bank, while C received a favorable mention from Barron's and UBS, both of which mentioned it as a good buying opportunity...

Dow's laggards of note include IBM (IBM 91.85 -1.45), DuPont (DD 41.10 -1.20), and Disney (DIS 25.17 -0.93)... A Barron's article mentioned that IBM software unit could have trouble brewing inside... DD is weak with the rest of the chemical sector, which is among the notable laggards... DIS is struggling on rumors that Comcast is likely to drop its bid for the giant, rather than raise it...NYSE Adv/Dec 925/2293, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 674/2381

Last trade 88.91 Change -0.21 (-0.24%)

High 89.29 Low 88.53

2:06 numbers

edit for html

Dow 10,165.04 -75.04 (-0.73%)
Nasdaq 1,954.97 -29.76 (-1.50%)
S&P 500 1,111.17 -9.40 (-0.84%)
30-yr Bond 4.702% -0.008

NYSE Volume 962,316,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,134,672,000

2:00PM: More of the same, with the major averages drifting sideways near their respective session lows... Buyers remain a hesitant bunch in view of the heightened geopolitical risks associated with last week's bombings in Europe, which have once again come center-stage in today's session... Volume maintains its relatively unimpressive totals, particularly on the Nasdaq, where the levels are noticeably lighter than those seen last week... Volume reflects the degree of conviction exhibited by the market, which is clearly not overwhelming in today's session... Breadth figures remain unfavorable, though...
Decliners are outpacing advancers by a 5-to-2 margin on the NYSE and a 7-to-2 margin on the Nasdaq... Down volume is greater than up volume by a 6-to-1 degree on the NYSE and a 13-to-2 degree on the Nasdaq... The ratio of new 52-week highs versus new lows is similarly unimpressive, with 63 and 59 new highs on the NYSE and Nasdaq, respectively, juxtaposed with 18 and 11 lows...NYSE Adv/Dec 867/2368, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 655/2422

I came across this article from last Fall. It's very "out of date" and not worth a read unless you like nostalgia, but I'm posting this clip because I wondered if this market direction uncertainty has as much to do with Kerry's rising polls as it does with the terrorist attacks.

The "Techinical Folks" have been predicting a "correction" for awhile, so all these factors may be coming into play.

But, thought it was worth throwing this out, because if Kerry does win the markets will have to reposition and given Bush's strength with the Corporatists this could lead to much nervousness if a Spitzer becomes the darling of the Dems and is given more power.

Here's the interesting part of the article:

Place your bets on the '04 campaign
advertisement
One reason to listen to the pundits: A serious Democratic challenger could turn the markets off defense, oil and drug stocks and on to managed care and alternative energy.

By Robert Walberg


For investors, predicting which cyborg will emerge to challenge President Bush in next fall’s election is less important than predicting how the market is likely to react as that candidate's campaign themes are outlined over the next several months.

Why are we talking about an election that is still more than a year away? Because the market is all about anticipation. Just as stocks have rallied over the past several months in expectation of an economic recovery, it will now begin to price in potential variables from the campaign trail.

http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/invest/extra/P60374.asp?Printer

http://www.forbes.com/markets/newswire/2004/03/15/rtr1299086.html

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The dollar was on shaky ground Monday, as news Japan's central bank is considering scaling back its intervention policy added to dollar-negative variables, like last week's bombings in Spain, already pushing the dollar lower.

snip>
The one dollar-positive variable in the currency market on Monday, a report from the U.S. Treasury showing stronger-than-expected capital inflows into the United States in January, proved to be short-lived.

No sooner had the the data hit the market and the dollar began retracing losses suffered earlier in the session, then analysts' began saying such strength in flows was not sustainable, undercutting trader views the report suggested a strong appetite for dollar-dennominated assets.

The capital inflows data have taken on higher importance for the dollar given the pressing need to the United States to attract hefty inflows to finance its wide current account deficit, and the number looms large on traders' radar screens.

snip>
STOCK PURCHASES, GEOPOLITICAL TENSIONS

Foreign stock purchases dropped to $12.8 billion from $13.3 billion, which analysts said added to the uncertainty about the U.S. capital flow picture.

snip>
Traders had sold dollars earlier in Asia and Europe after news Spanish officials had received a videotape purportedly from al-Qaeda claiming responsibility for the Madrid bombings.

Spain's prime minister-elect Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero of the opposition Socialist party, who has criticized the former Spanish administration's support for U.S. foreign policy, vowed Monday to make good on a campaign promise to pull troops out of Iraq.

Analysts said this would be a heavy blow to the U.S. administration's efforts to maintain international support for its Iraq campaign and should be negative for the dollar.

http://www.forbes.com/markets/newswire/2004/03/15/rtr1299097.html

WASHINGTON, March 15 (Reuters) - A U.S. Treasury Department spokesman said on Monday that the U.S. policy in support of a strong dollar is unchanged.

"There is no change in our strong- dollar policy," Treasury spokesman Rob Nichols said at a weekly briefing for reporters.

Nichols declined to comment on a report by Japanese economic daily Nihon Keizai Shimbun that the Bank of Japan might cut back on its large- scale intervention aimed at keeping the yen's value from rising.

...more...

that's one helluva strong dollar policy that they are touting :evilgrin:

Dow 10,145.19 -94.89 (-0.93%)
Nasdaq 1,950.57 -34.16 (-1.72%)
S&P 500 1,108.27 -12.30 (-1.10%)
30-yr Bond 4.714% +0.004

NYSE Volume 1,158,962,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,330,653,000


3:00PM: Today's excercise in futility carries on, with the major averages stuck in negative territory and not making much of an effort to reach higher as buyers remain nowhere to be found... Commodity prices are on the rise, with the price of crude oil higher by $1.13 at $37.32/bbl and the price of gold up $4.00 at $399.60/oz... Crude oil rose after oil ministers from Venezuela and Qatar said that OPEC will proceed with a production cut in April, even after a 15% rise in crude oil prices this year... Note that OPEC's next meeting is on March 21...
U.S. inventories, in the meantime, fell to a 28-year low in January and remain about 3% below the five-year average... The price of gold rose as its safe-haven appeal increased in view of heaightened concern over terrorism on the heels of last week's bombings in Madrid...NYSE Adv/Dec 961/2306, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 711/2404

;)

The stock market's fundamentals remain favorable, in Briefing.com's opinion, due to historically-low interest rates and acceleration in the economy, which renders the recent emphasis on economic negatives absurd, as explained in The Big Picture column...


I'd really like to see this "The Big Picture" column they've kept referring to all day, but I'm not about to shell out $ for a subscription to some group that considers my take absurd!

for a huge rally in September-October. Did you ever think that might be Rove's "October Surprise"?

Sharpton pulling out of the race. :evilgrin:

5 day chart looks even worse.

1 year chart



Max chart

I find that second chart very interesting. Shows what "401-K's" have done for the markets. :D

Dow 10,102.89 -137.19 (-1.34%)
Nasdaq 1,939.20 -45.53 (-2.29%)
S&P 500 1,104.43 -16.14 (-1.44%)
30-yr Bond 4.711% +0.001

NYSE Volume 1,529,789,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,722,750,000

Close: The bleeding on Wall Street continued in today's session, as the major averages declined 1.4-2.3%, closing at new lows for 2004... Much of the weakness could be attributed to the market's heightened risk averseness resulting from last week's bombings in Spain being attributed to Al Qaeda and the move to price more of a risk premium into the marketplace... Accordingly, the major averages spent the entirety of the session slipping lower and staging virtually no rebound efforts...

The bulk of the sectors spent the whole session in negative territory, with the laggards of note including the influential hardware, internet, networking, software, semiconductor, telecom, biotech, drug, banking, broker/dealer, gold, and transportation sectors, to name a few... Leaders to the upside were exceptionally difficult to come by, but included the oil & gas services and managed healthcare groups, both of which closed the day in positive territory... This morning's economic reports, which included the NY Empire State Index at 25.3, Industrial Productivity at 0.7%, and Capacity Utilization at 76.6% provided a favorable read on the economy, but failed to supply much of a floor for the market...

Nevertheless, Briefing.com maintains its moderately bullish longer-term view of the stock market due to the accelerating economy and the historically-low interest rates... With respect to the latter, the bond market extended its rally, with the 10-year note closing up 5/32, bringing its yield down to 3.76%...

I had to take a trip to our state capitol today (Lansing) so I missed all the market action. I mean ALL of it. I read this thread and I leave knowing more than your average Wall St. schlepp.

Thanks to all for the great posts! I may as well have witnessed the day after reading it all.

You guys rock! As soon as I finish overthrowing the gubberment in my area I will greatly enjoy your company more regularly. Until then keep up the fabulous work. I miss you guys.

Hugs to all you marketeers!

Julie

of the gubbermint department! Thanks for all you do in that great state of MI! (We in WI are still plotting a way to take the UP) :evilgrin:

For late sleepers and early risers.....