Obama: 'Worst of the (economic) storm is over'

Source: Chicago Trib

"The worst of the storm is over,'' President Barack Obama said of a recovering American economy today.

The president toured a Charlotte, N.C.-based company, Celgard, which is manufacturing components for advanced batteries - promising to create new jobs with federal stimulus spending on alternative energy development.

"We've been through the worst period of economic turmoil since the Great Depression,'' Obama said today, on a day that the government reported that 162,000 jobs were created last month - the best jobs report in three years, though unemployment has held at 9.7 percent.

"Today was an encouraging day... We are beginning to turn the corner...'' the president said. "While we've come a long way, we've still got a ways to go. We have to be mindful that today's job numbers, while welcome, leave us with a lot more work to do...

"The truth is, there are some limits to what government can do,'' Obama told his audience. "Government cannot reverse the toll of this recession overnight.... What government can do is create the conditions for companies to succeed. It can create the incentives for companies to hire again.''

Read more: http://www.swamppolitics.com/news/politics/blog/2010/04/obama_worst_of_the_storm_is_ov.html

I'll agree with him.

and only if, unemployment continues to drop, I'll believe him. But I'm not throwing a parade yet

Like if your house was burning down and you were inside trying to find a way out, that would be the worst. When you and your family get out safely, but your house has burned down it's still really bad, but the worst is over.

but I'm saying I don't necessarily believe that the worst is over. The economy is an unpredictable beast, and who knows whether next week there will be a sudden collapse of some major industry.

Is it PROBABLY over? More than likely. But I'm just remaining skeptical.

I know employment is a lagging indicator and that it is down is good. I also know that is of small consolation to those still unemployed.

But man, if this isn't the end this will bite him in the ass harder than Read My Lips, Potatoe, or I did not Have Sex with that Woman.

commercial real estate bubble-bust may have something to say about that. :(





http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/02/11/commercial-real-estate-wa_n_458092.html

Even as the economy shows signs of recovery, a government watchdog is warning that another financial crisis is coming round the bend -- and that the Treasury Department and financial regulators are not prepared to deal with it.

"There is a commercial real estate crisis on the horizon, and there are no easy solutions to the risks commercial real estate may pose to the financial system and the public," says a report issued Thursday by the Congressional Oversight Panel, the bailout watchdog led by Harvard Law professor and middle-class advocate Elizabeth Warren.

"The Panel is concerned that until Treasury and bank supervisors take coordinated action to address forthrightly and transparently the state of the commercial real estate markets -- and the potential impact that a breakdown in those markets could have on local communities, small businesses, and individuals -- the financial crisis will not end."

Over the next five years, about $1.4 trillion in commercial real estate loans will reach the end of their terms and require new financing. Nearly half are "underwater," meaning the borrower owes more than the property is worth. Commercial property values have fallen more than 40 percent nationally since their 2007 peak. Vacancy rates are up and rents are down, further driving down the value of these properties.

IS STILL NOT PREPARED TO DEAL WITH IT????*^%!#$$$

ZERO learning curve, I would say.
More likely zero caring curve, actually.

for this very thing. Banks are very well capitalized at the moment. Actually, far too well for our economic situation. It's part of the reason monetary policy has not been as effective as it should be.

Still, the damage from commercial real estate is nowhere near as severe as for residential. Residential is the overwhelming bulk of real estate debt out there.

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The rest of us are SCREWED.

The super-wealthy crowd is now flush with cash, and ready for the wheels to come off. The rest of us, not so much.

I've just dropped another $15K off the prices of my house. If I sell it, after any negotiations and the realtor -- who has done zip -- takes his chunk, I won't have enough to "start over."

I'm 56. I'm supposed to be in my peak earning years. Instead, I've been forced to live off all my retirement savings and taken on debt "retraining" for a career in healthcare. I've been putting in 18 hour days to not even tread water, until "they" (the vultures circling overhead) managed to drive me between a rock and a hard place.

Capitulation for me means capitulation for a *lot* of people. I'm about 1" from suicide. The only reason I keep going is to take care of my animals. Once they're gone, I'm done. That will be my retirement.

Just remember, folks. Suicide is just murder turned inward. I expect a lot of people will be turning that rage -- of having been systematically robbed of everything they sacrificed and saved for -- outward.

in my mid-fifties, jobless for a year-and-a-half, no prospects, savings almost gone.

The difference between us is that I lost my cheap little, paid-for house on some land a few years ago. I put my savings into that to get secure before the systemic collapse that I anticipated even got started. Lost the house to the ex. Became homeless in the process. It is all too much, especially when you have no family and your friends went with the ex, etc., moan, complain, etc.

At our age, its just so strange and it really impacts you. It feels like the bottom fell out of everything and you are walking around in a Twilight Zone.

Hang in there ... no pun intended. I know those words are just plain and empty but that the intent is conveyed. Sorry.

:hug: I bought my cheap little place outright 7 years ago because, like you, I saw this coming way back when. I did everything I could to prepare and then to hang on here, but I've been robbed continuously for so long...yes, twilight zone is where I have been for a decade now.

I won't be homeless after this. Just not sure how or where I can land safely and still have enough to finish school, start over and protect my furbabies...

It's really beyond me. From what I've read, the worst is most definitely not over, and in fact will be hitting hard by the end of the year.

That is, unless commercial R.E. and the next wave of Option-ARM and Alt-A loans magically disappear, along with all the other bad paper currently being held by the 'too big to fail' crowd.

If that were to happen, then, yeah, maybe so. But as it stands, I really don't see how that is feasible.

and by "our" I don't mean it is an exclusively American property.

The fact that economies can be talked up or down should be a proof of the arbitrary silliness of their structures and foundations.

Most of the US won't feel it.

I would pray he's right.

I fear he is not.

The systemic & structural problems have not been cured. Many jobs are not coming back, and we have done little to bypass the old technologies by building new ones.

The Banks are paid off, the military is expanded, People? - well we can only do so much. This hopey changey thing isn't working for People. I really hate it when Democrats make Sarah Palin right.

...and I don't believe him just yet on this one, sorry. I can see why he's saying it, but I don't believe it's so.

"things to read in 12 months".
Lot of re-assuring Obama quotes there, nestled next to campaign promises.

Once it starts going down and the UNDERemployment rate is at about 7%.....maybe I'll feel hopeful.

Congress isn't doing enough.
That jobs bill isn't even worth the paper it was written on.

We need REAL jobs! Ramp up demand for U.S. made solar panels, U.S. made wind turbines, get the working on trains and buses for a REAL mass transit system, let's try to break up Big Agra and have more local and independent farms.

::sigh::
I fear Obama might be the reason a lot of people might vote Republican in 2012 because he is SUCH a huge disappointment for lots of people. I never drunk the Kool-Aid.

The worst is definitely NOT "over" when http://www.marketwatch.com/story/jobs-data-has-plenty-of-bad-news-to-mar-the-good-2010-04-02?reflink=MW_news_stmp">long-term unemployment has actually gotten worse in the past two months.

along the lines of "light at the end of the tunnel" and will probably be just as popular.

Conditions have stabilized at a low level, but are improving. It will take a couple years to really feel we are back on our feet again, but that time will come. I find it interesting that so many on a Democratic message board doubt the efficacy of Keynesian policies.

- I was laid off from the job I had for over 25 years in January and there are so many applicants for each and every job out there that employers aren't even bothering to notify you if you weren't chosen.

I am in the suburbs of DC, an area seen as not being hit as hard by the rest of the nation. I don't know who's fibbing to Obama but the truth is that it sucks out there and is getting WORSE - not better. My son-in-law was laid off this week.

BTW, I'm not in the numbers as I haven't filed for unemployment. I thought I'd get a job right away as I've NEVER been unemployed. Wonder how many more aren't in the numbers because we thought we'd soon find work? I'll have to file soon if I don't soon get something.

Yes, THIS storm. The next couple of storms are already on the horizon. Unless we reform campaign finance, re-regulate banking, and remove corporate power over our legislators, we will continue to be battered until we become a totalitarian dictatorship. Just my opinion!