STOCK MARKET WATCH, Tuesday April 13

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Tuesday April 13, 2010

---

Euro, Yen, Loonie, Silver and Gold

---

Handy Links - Market Data and News:Economic Calendar    Marketwatch Data    Bloomberg Economic News    Yahoo! Finance    Google Finance    Bank Tracker    
Credit Union Tracker    Daily Job Cuts

Handy Links - Economic Blogs:
The Big Picture    Financial Sense    Calculated Risk    Naked Capitalism    Credit Writedowns
Brad DeLong      Bonddad    Atrios    goldmansachs666    The Stand-Up Economist

Handy Links - Government Issues:
LegitGov    Open Government    Earmark Database    USA spending.gov

Handy Links - Videos:
The Coming Collapse of the Middle Class    Charlie Rose talks with Roubini    Charlie Rose talks with Krugman
    William Black: This Economic Disaster    Bill Moyers with Kevin Drum and David Corn

Bush Administration Officials Convicted = 2
Names: David Safavian, James Fondren

Bush Administration Officials Charged = 1
Name(s): Richard Lopez Razo

Financial Sector Officials Convicted since 1/20/09 = 11

---

---

This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.

Read more: du

08:30 Export Prices ex-ag. Mar
Briefing.com NA
Consensus NA
Prior -0.2%

08:30 Import Prices ex-oil Mar
Briefing.com NA
Consensus NA
Prior 0.2%

08:30 Trade Balance Feb
Briefing.com -$38.3B
Consensus -$38.5B
Prior -$37.3B

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

U.S. March export prices rise 0.7% 8:32 a.m. Today

U.S. March import prices ex-fuel up 0.2% 8:32 a.m. Today

U.S. March import price index rises 0.7% 8:32 a.m. Today

U.S. Feb. trade gap with China $16.5 bln 8:30 a.m. Today

Feb. trade gap above consensus of $38.5 bln 8:30 a.m. Today

U.S. Feb. trade gap widens 7.4% to $39.7 bln 8:30 a.m. Today

SINGAPORE – Oil prices fell for a fifth day to below $84 a barrel Tuesday in Asia as traders mulled whether a slowly recovering U.S. economy justified the recent two-month, 25 percent crude rally. ...

Crude jumped to above $87 a barrel last week from $69 in early February on investor expectations tepid U.S. crude demand will eventually catch up with a recovering economy. U.S. crude inventories have remained high, but some analysts were cheered by signs global economic growth is strengthening. ...

In other Nymex trading in May contracts, heating oil fell 1.08 cents to $2.208 a gallon, and gasoline slid 0.82 cent to $2.288 a gallon. Natural gas dropped 1.9 cents to $3.989 per 1,000 cubic feet.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

April 12 (Bloomberg) -- Iran, OPEC’s second-biggest crude producer, expanded the number of supertankers being used to store surplus oil, echoing a program that contributed to a tripling of freight rates two years ago.

At least nine such vessels are idling in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman and to the south of Egypt’s Suez Canal, according to data from the ships collected by AIS Live Ltd. Two months ago, there were three. Their depth in the water indicates they are loaded, with as many as 18 million barrels of oil being stored, almost enough to supply Europe for a day.

Refineries across Asia, accounting for almost two-thirds of global demand for supertankers, typically process less fuel in the second quarter to carry out maintenance. Two years ago, Iran used as many as 15 tankers for storage when demand from refiners fell, constricting vessel supply and helping to drive up freight rates more than 200 percent in less than three months. ....

Stored on Tankers

Traders had bought crude, stored it on tankers and sold the fuel for delivery in the next several months. Those trades unwound after the premium for later delivery was eroded.

Iran’s storage may bolster freight rates and prompt traders to revise their expectations for the second quarter. Rates on the benchmark Saudi Arabia-to-Japan route will average $28,758 a day in the period, according to the median in a Bloomberg survey of 13 analysts, traders and shipbrokers at the end of March. That’s 49 percent less than the rate of $56,246 on April 9, according to prices from the Baltic Exchange in London.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aLw2JL2J5nCU

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TytGOeiW0aE

This gives me a theme for next weekend!

... In 1996, the average monthly sewer bill for a family of four in Birmingham was only $14.71 — but that was before the county decided to build an elaborate new sewer system with the help of out-of-state financial wizards with names like Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers, Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan Chase. The result was a monstrous pile of borrowed money that the county used to build, in essence, the world's grandest toilet — "the Taj Mahal of sewer-treatment plants" is how one county worker put it. What happened here in Jefferson County would turn out to be the perfect metaphor for the peculiar alchemy of modern oligarchical capitalism: A mob of corrupt local officials and morally absent financiers got together to build a giant device that converted human shit into billions of dollars of profit for Wall Street — and misery for people like Lisa Pack.

And once the giant shit machine was built and the note on all that fancy construction started to come due, Wall Street came back to the local politicians and doubled down on the scam. They showed up in droves to help the poor, broke citizens of Jefferson County cut their toilet finance charges using a blizzard of incomprehensible swaps and refinance schemes — schemes that only served to postpone the repayment date a year or two while sinking the county deeper into debt. In the end, every time Jefferson County so much as breathed near one of the banks, it got charged millions in fees. There was so much money to be made bilking these dizzy Southerners that banks like JP Morgan spent millions paying middlemen who bribed — yes, that's right, bribed, criminally bribed — the county commissioners and their buddies just to keep their business. Hell, the money was so good, JP Morgan at one point even paid Goldman Sachs $3 million just to back the fuck off, so they could have the rubes of Jefferson County to fleece all for themselves.

Birmingham became the poster child for a new kind of giant-scale financial fraud, one that would threaten the financial stability not only of cities and counties all across America, but even those of entire countries like Greece.

...

Judgment Day was coming — just like it was for the Delaware River Port Authority, the Pennsylvania school system, the cities of Detroit, Chicago, Oakland and Los Angeles, the states of Connecticut and Mississippi, the city of Milan and nearly 500 other municipalities in Italy, the country of Greece, and God knows who else. All of these places are now reeling under the weight of similarly elaborate and ill-advised swaps — and if what happened in Jefferson County is any guide, hoo boy. Because when the shit hit the fan in Birmingham, it really hit the fan.

For Jefferson County, the deal blew up in early 2008, when a dizzying array of penalties and other fine-print poison worked into the swap contracts started to kick in. The trouble began with the housing crash, which took down the insurance companies that had underwritten the county's bonds. That rendered the county's insurance worthless, triggering clauses in its swap contracts that required it to pay off more than $800 million of its debt in only four years, rather than 40. That, in turn, scared off private lenders, who were no longer ­interested in bidding on the county's bonds. The banks were forced to make up the difference — a service for which they charged enormous penalties. It was as if the county had missed a payment on its credit card and woke up the next morning to find its annual percentage rate jacked up to a million percent. Between 2008 and 2009, the annual payment on Jefferson County's debt jumped from $53 million to a whopping $636 million.

It gets worse. Remember the swap deal that Jefferson County did with JP Morgan, how the variable rates it got from the bank were supposed to match those it owed its bondholders? Well, they didn't. Most of the payments the county was receiving from JP Morgan were based on one set of interest rates (the London Interbank Exchange Rate), while the payments it owed to its bondholders followed a different set of rates (a municipal-bond index). Jefferson County was suddenly getting far less from JP Morgan, and owing tons more to bondholders. In other words, the bank and Bill Blount made tens of millions of dollars selling deals to local politicians that were not only completely defective, but blew the entire county to smithereens.

And here's the kicker. Last year, when Jefferson County, staggered by the weight of its penalties, was unable to make its swap payments to JP Morgan, the bank canceled the deal. That triggered one-time "termination fees" of — yes, you read this right — $647 million. That was money the county would owe no matter what happened with the rest of its debt, even if bondholders decided to forgive and forget every dime the county had borrowed. It was like the herpes simplex of loans — debt that does not go away, ever, for as long as you live. On a sewer project that was originally supposed to cost $250 million, the county now owed a total of $1.28 billion just in interest and fees on the debt. Imagine paying $250,000 a year on a car you purchased for $50,000, and that's roughly where Jefferson County stood at the end of last year.

Last November, the SEC charged JP Morgan with fraud and canceled the $647 million in termination fees. The bank agreed to pay a $25 million fine and fork over $50 million to assist displaced workers in Jefferson County. So far, the county has managed to avoid bankruptcy, but the sewer fiasco had downgraded its credit rating, triggering payments on other outstanding loans and pushing Birmingham toward the status of an African debtor state. For the next generation, the county will be in a constant fight to collect enough taxes just to pay off its debt, which now totals $4,800 per resident.

The city of Birmingham was founded in 1871, at the dawn of the Southern industrial boom, for the express purpose of attracting Northern capital — it was even named after a famous British steel town to burnish its entrepreneurial cred. There's a gruesome irony in it now lying sacked and looted by financial vandals from the North. The destruction of Jefferson County reveals the basic battle plan of these modern barbarians, the way that banks like JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs have systematically set out to pillage towns and cities from Pittsburgh to Athens.

/... http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/story/32906678/looting_main_street/print

Matt Taibbi, Rolling Stone Issue 1102 — April 15, 2010 -- well worth the read.

As an aside on Sovereign debt, in this case the UK's, pumped-up and pillaged in the above-described manner by those same Wall St. names and others in the City of London, yesterday Bloomberg was repeating this:

April 12 (Bloomberg) -- The pound, gilts and FTSE 100 Index may be the weak spot of European markets after Greece was offered a bailout over the weekend, strategists said.

“The Greek problem should calm down, and we should look at the next one on the agenda for markets to watch,” Alain Bokobza, Paris-based head of global asset allocation strategy at Societe General SA, said in a phone interview. “The next one to be watched for is the U.K.”

...

The U.K.’s budget shortfall reached 11.8 percent of gross domestic product in the past fiscal year, near Greece’s deficit of 12.9 percent of GDP last year. Greece’s gap is the highest in the euro’s history and more than four times the European Union’s 3 percent limit.

“We think that the U.K. could be the next concern for the market,” Pierre-Olivier Beffy and Amelie de Montchalin wrote in a Global Economics Research and Investment Strategy report for Exane BNP Paribas today. The Paris-based economist and analyst added that the “British situation is worse” than that of Portugal, Spain or Italy.

/... http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-04-12/u-k-market-is-vulnerable-after-greek-deal-strategists-say.html

They are a public menace. This is not the behavior of any bank that actually functions as banks were traditionally designed. This is exemplary of a vicious predator running a fraud ring.

FRSP!

On second thought, we should send them to my dentist, who impressed me yesterday with his audition for a role in "Little Shop of Horrors". My mouth still hurts.

Evidently he's short-staffed and trying to maintain his 2 office franchise without enough dentists.

I'm still in pain after what should have not been that painful--and he had the NERVE to tell me not to scream, because it would scare the other patients.

Now granted, I doubt that the kids will need root canals--probably never, since they were fed fluoride from birth--but I need to find a new dentist. I don't want my kids going to a place that's more interested in speed dentistry than patient's needs. The last thing an autistic patient needs is more pain especially unnecessary and avoidable pain.

Demeter is really ripped, today.

WASHINGTON – Former senior executives of mortgage lender Washington Mutual, the biggest U.S. bank in history to fail, are appearing before Congress on Tuesday for the first time since the bank's September 2008 collapse.

Their testimony follows an 18-month investigation by a Senate panel that found fraud throughout the bank's lending operations and failure by management to stem the deception despite internal probes.

WaMu's pay system rewarded loan officers for the volume and speed of the subprime mortgage loans they closed on. Extra bonuses even went to loan officers who overcharged borrowers on their loans or levied stiff penalties for prepayment, according to the report being released by the investigative panel of the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee. .....

The new report by the Senate investigators said the top WaMu producers, loan officers and sales executives who made high-risk loans or packaged them into securities for sale to Wall Street, were eligible for the bank's President's Club, with trips to swank resorts — like Maui in 2005. .....

The investors who bought the mortgage securities from Washington Mutual weren't informed of the fraudulent practices, the Senate investigators found. WaMu "dumped the polluted water" of toxic mortgage securities into the stream of the U.S. financial system, Levin said.

In some cases, sales associates in WaMu offices in California fabricated loan documents, cutting and pasting false names on borrowers' bank statements. The company's own probe in 2005, three years before the bank collapsed, found that two top producing offices — in Downey and Montebello, Calif. — had levels of fraud exceeding 58 percent and 83 percent of the loans. Employees violated the bank's policies on verifying borrowers' qualifications and reviewing loans.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100413/ap_on_bi_ge/us_washington_mutual_investigation

---

Words fail to express my outrage. I want blood and humiliation.

Jim Puzzanghera at the LA Times has a preview: Washington Mutual created 'mortgage time bomb,' Senate panel finds

---

The Inspectors General's report on WaMu will be issued on Friday - Sewell Chan at the NY Times reported Saturday: U.S. Faults Regulators Over a Bank


A huge bank out of control and regulators ignoring the problem ... this is quite a story. And no surprise at all.

more at CR

...
The key issue is whether the financial crisis was the product of conscious, intentional behavior — or whether it was an unforeseen and unforeseeable natural disaster. We’ve previously described the “banana peel” theory of the financial crisis — the idea it was the result of a complicated series of unfortunate mistakes, a giant accident. This past week, a parade of financial sector luminaries appeared before the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission. Their mantra: “No one saw this coming.” The goal is to convince all of us that the crisis was a natural disaster — a “hundred-year flood,” to use Tim Geithner’s metaphor.

I find this incredibly frustrating. First of all, plenty of people saw the crisis coming. In late 2009, people like Nouriel Roubini and Peter Schiff were all over the airwaves for having predicted the crisis. Since then, there have been multiple books written about people who not only predicted the crisis but bet on it, making hundreds of millions or billions of dollars for themselves. Second, Simon and I just wrote a book arguing that the crisis was no accident: it was the result of the financial sector’s ability to use its political power to engineer a favorable regulatory environment for itself. Since, probabilistically speaking, most people will not read the book, it’s fortunate that Ira Glass has stepped in to help fill the gap.

This past weekend’s episode of This American Life includes a long story on a particular trade put on Magnetar (ProPublica story here), a hedge fund that I first read about in Yves Smith’s ECONned. The main point of the story is to show how one group of people not only anticipated the collapse, and not only bet on it, but in doing so prolonged the bubble and made the ultimate collapse even worse. But it also raises some key issues about Wall Street and its behavior over the past decade. .....

According to the story, in 2006, when the subprime-backed CDO market was starting to slow down, Magnetar started buying the equity layer — the riskiest part — of new CDOs. Since they were buying the equity, they were the CDOs’ sponsor, and they pressured the CDO managers to put especially risky MBS into the CDOs — making them more likely to fail. Then Magnetar bought credit default swaps on the debt issued by the CDOs. If the CDOs collapsed, as many did, their equity would become worthless, but their credit default swaps on the debt would repay them many, many times over. .....

I do have a problem with the Wall Street bankers in this story, however. Because losing $880 million of your own company’s money to make a quick buck for yourself is either incompetent or just wrong. And allowing Magnetar to create CDOs that are as toxic as possible — and then actively selling their debt to investors (that’s where the banks differ from Magnetar, in my opinion) — is either incompetent or just wrong. But even so, I don’t think the frontline bankers are ultimately at fault. Maybe they were simply incompetent. Or maybe, they were knowingly exploiting the system to maximize their earnings — only in this case the system they were exploiting was their own banks’ screwed-up compensation policies, risk management “systems,” and ethical guidelines.

more here

While the market cheers on the fantastic job “growth” of March 2010, the more astute of us are concerned with a growing tide of personal bankruptcies. March 2010 saw 158,000 bankruptcy filings. David Rosenberg of Gluskin-Sheff notes that this is an astounding 6,900 filings per day.

This latest filing is up 19% from March 2009’s number which occurred at the absolute nadir of the economic decline, when everyone thought the world was ending. It’s also up 35% from last month’s (February 2010) number.

Given the significance of this, I thought today we’d spend some time delving into numbers for the “median” American’s experience in the US today. Regrettably, much of the data is not up to date so we’ve got to go by 2008 numbers.

In 2008, the median US household income was $50,300. Assuming that the person filing is the “head of household” and has two children (dependents), this means a 1040 tax bill of $4,100, which leaves about $45K in income after taxes (we’re not bothering with state taxes). I realize this is a simplistic calculation, but it’s a decent proxy for income in the US in 2008.

.....

If Joe:

1) Overpaid on his house
2) Didn’t have a full 20% down payment
3) Owns two cars
4) Eats at restaurants
5) Splurges on heating & A/C bills
6) Has any medical expenses aside from monthly premiums…

… he is running into the red EVERY month.

I also wish to note that my analysis didn’t include real estate taxes and numerous other expenses that most folks have to pay. So even if you are extremely frugal and careful with your money, it is impossible to “get by” in the US without using credit cards, home equity lines of credit or burning through savings. The cost of living is simply TOO high relative to incomes.

This is why there simply cannot be a sustainable recovery in the US economy. Because we outsourced our jobs, incomes fell. Because incomes fell and savers were punished (thanks to abysmal returns on savings rates) we pulled future demand forward by splurging on credit. Because we splurged on credit, prices in every asset under the sun rose in value. Because prices rose while incomes fell, we had to use more credit to cover our costs, which in turn meant taking on more debt (a net drag on incomes).

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/guest-post-its-impossible-get-us

:donut: and lurkers. Budgets are like fingerprints, each are different. Your ability to advise and maintain a budget determines your ability to get by rather than these other factors that are listed in this article. Certain things are essentials-food, clothing, and shelter. Also in that list are things to help get to work and keep the lights on, phone connected and insurance to cover your car and kids if you have them. If you rent and do mass transit-the price goes down on much of this. If you cook instead of eating out, your budget really goes down. If you buy a new car instead of a good used car or finance that used car instead of paying cash-it costs more. In the late go go 90's, I lived on 24k with a child. It was not easy but we more than got by. We did not own much but we were not in dire straights. The only debt I can justify is a house, but the house payment should not exceed a certain portion of your take home pay.

This example is more wants than needs and exposure to risk and I think that is the problem with most budgets. This 5 year odyssey to be debt free that our family has gone through has taught us much. We want to buy a home and pay for it before we retire. We include insurance costs to handle risk if we cannot self insure. There is a lack of info and education in the populace (not so much on this thread). That is why I have problems with this article.

Happy hunting and watch out for the bears.

We saw this sort of thing happen in the 60s and 70s, when a few people showed how it was possible to live an alternative lifestyle. It didn't catch on with most people. Most people are willing victims of advertising and social pressure. They "need" to have a new car every two years, etc.

I was sitting at coffee a few days ago with my friends and one was remarking on his life-long habit of buying a new car every two years. Another friend looked at him and said, almost rudely, "Why the hell would you do that? What a waste of money!" And Mr. New Car just sputtered. When pressed on the why, he had no answer. He just did it. And it's bothering him now because he is finally, at 75, fully retired and he doesn't know if he's going to be able to afford a new car when the one he has -- with barely 17,000 miles on it -- hits the 24 month mark this coming December.

The statistics have nothing to do with the morality. Yes, you and I *can* get by, but we aren't following the average American game plan. We also know that not everyone fits into the statistical average mold. There are some who make more, some who spend less. And we have the Gateses and the Buffets to skew the average for the rest of us.

We know that the jobs situation is half of the problem. We know that until jobs return to the economy, it's going to continue hurting. But the other half is the spending portion and what we've seen so far is forced reductions in economic demand. (Too many people, even economists, seem to be equating economic demand with "pent up desire to spend every penny they can get their hands on on worthless plastic crap.") Unless and until there is a shift in the non-essential consumer spending side of the economy, we will continue to huff and puff ourselves into debt bubbles like the one we're currently struggling to escape from before it suffocates us as it collapses.


Tansy Gold

Tansy Gold/AnneD...we're not your average politicians

put so clearly, even if it is depressing.

Not that it makes any difference to the, uh, Obamoptimists.



Tansy Gold, gettin' by (so far)

and a horror of getting into somebody else's power, you can.

Of course, reverting to some less affluent period of history is required, as well, and the odds that you will find a life partner with similar fortitude are slim to none (personal testimony, and I hope the bastard's gone bankrupt, he should have, by now), but at least your children should life long enough and well enough to reproduce. Although what chance they or their children have of an improving life, I don't know.

We will all have to work very hard to evict the Corporation from the State, just as the Founding Fathers worked to evict Religion from the State. In all truth, they did try to keep the Corporation out, as well, but they were too subtle, and the Corporations have learned much in 300 years....

Sadly, it's true.

April 13 (Bloomberg) -- Stocks and commodities fell, with oil declining for a fifth day, as Alcoa Inc. reported sales that disappointed investors and China damped speculation of an imminent revaluation of the yuan.

The MSCI World Index of 23 developed nations’ stocks fell 0.2 percent at 10:23 a.m. in London. Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index lost 0.3 percent and Alcoa slid 3.3 percent in German trading. Aluminum dropped for the first time in four days.

Alcoa, the largest U.S. aluminum maker, reported first- quarter sales that missed analysts’ estimates, kicking off the U.S. earnings season after a 7.3 percent rally in the S&P 500 this year. Chinese leader Hu Jintao met with U.S. President Barack Obama and rebuffed calls to strengthen a yuan that American lawmakers say is hindering an economic recovery. .....

The decline in U.S. futures indicated the Dow Jones Industrial Average may retreat after yesterday closing above 11,000 for the first time since September 2008. Combined profit for S&P 500 companies will increase 30 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier, the first back-to-back quarterly profit gains among U.S. companies since 2007, according to analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=at1hLY4z0md8&pos=3

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The Senate took the first step Monday to extend the deadline for the jobless to file for unemployment insurance.

Monday's action, a procedural step narrowly approved by a 60 to 34 vote, clears the way for a final vote, which will likely come later this week. The $9.2 billion bill would be retroactive to the April 5 deadline and would extend benefits through May 5. ....

Though the measure generally enjoys bipartisan support, it has gotten caught in the divisive politics pervading Capitol Hill. Republicans blocked the extension's passage late last month, saying the bill should be paid for. Republican Senators Scott Brown of Massachusetts, Susan Collins and Olympia Snowe of Maine, and George Voinovich of Ohio supported the bill.

The bill also:

--Extends the deadline to file for COBRA health insurance subsidy through April 30.

--Prevents a 21% reduction in Medicare payment rates for doctors through April 30.

--Extends the National Flood Insurance Program through April 30.

--Extends the copyright license used by satellite television providers through April 30.

http://money.cnn.com/2010/04/12/news/economy/unemployment_benefits_senate/index.htm

They don't even care if they support the actual bill, they just want to obstruct everything.

Well, I kind of understand this. They only have that one button to push. And if they don't push it, they risk becoming completely irrelevant. That is their real fear. Their goal is to make the Democrats look irrelevant, unable to accomplish anything despite having what should be a dominant majority.

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

(Down a little after being up a lot. Good day all.)

(Debt under Obama seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat.)
= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 8,347,537,145,021.94 + 4,478,150,246,183.76
DOWN 215,194,285.06 + DOWN 128,720,957.17

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 309-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.24 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.71, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 13 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 309,035,070 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 04/09/2010 15:49 -> 309,034,742
Currently, each of these Americans owe $41,502.37.
A family of three owes $124,507.11. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 24 reports in the last 30 to 31 days.
The average for the last 24 reports is 11,374,328,162.87.
The average for the last 30 days would be 9,099,462,530.30.
The average for the last 31 days would be 8,805,931,480.93.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 131 reports in 191 days of FY2010 averaging 6.99B$ per report, 4.80B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 1,017 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 14.2 and 21.8T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
04/09/2010 12,825,687,391,205.70 BHO (UP 2,198,810,342,292.62 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +0,915,858,387,694.00 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof10 +1,750,200,583,813.14 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
03/22/2010 +000,662,784,714.13 ------------******** Mon
03/23/2010 +000,796,033,080.11 ------------********
03/24/2010 +000,495,755,553.04 ------------********
03/25/2010 +024,094,622,106.32 ------------**********
03/26/2010 -000,521,947,711.23 ---
03/29/2010 -000,032,502,739.57 ---- Mon
03/30/2010 +000,146,146,107.03 ------------********
03/31/2010 +089,964,337,654.53 ------------**********
04/01/2010 +004,832,827,050.45 ------------*********
04/02/2010 -000,783,098,135.53 ---
04/05/2010 +021,628,544,775.26 ------------********** Mon
04/06/2010 +000,246,106,716.91 ------------********
04/07/2010 +000,926,408,143.83 ------------********
04/08/2010 +030,863,719,709.59 ------------**********
04/09/2010 -000,215,194,285.06 ---

173,104,542,739.81 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4340289&mesg_id=4340347

(Down a little. Good day all.)

(Debt under Obama seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat.)
= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 8,347,343,971,647.64 + 4,479,035,484,639.21
DOWN 193,173,374.30 + UP 885,238,455.45

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 309-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.24 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.71, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 13 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 309,055,008 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 04/09/2010 15:49 -> 309,034,742
Currently, each of these Americans owe $41,501.93.
A family of three owes $124,505.79. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 22 reports in the last 30 to 31 days.
The average for the last 22 reports is 11,395,481,517.51.
The average for the last 30 days would be 8,356,686,446.17.
The average for the last 31 days would be 8,087,115,915.65.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 132 reports in 194 days of FY2010 averaging 6.94B$ per report, 4.72B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 1,014 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 14.2 and 21.0T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
04/12/2010 12,826,379,456,286.85 BHO (UP 2,199,502,407,373.77 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +0,916,550,452,775.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof10 +1,724,437,707,540.78 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
03/23/2010 +000,796,033,080.11 ------------********
03/24/2010 +000,495,755,553.04 ------------********
03/25/2010 +024,094,622,106.32 ------------**********
03/26/2010 -000,521,947,711.23 ---
03/29/2010 -000,032,502,739.57 ---- Mon
03/30/2010 +000,146,146,107.03 ------------********
03/31/2010 +089,964,337,654.53 ------------**********
04/01/2010 +004,832,827,050.45 ------------*********
04/02/2010 -000,783,098,135.53 ---
04/05/2010 +021,628,544,775.26 ------------********** Mon
04/06/2010 +000,246,106,716.91 ------------********
04/07/2010 +000,926,408,143.83 ------------********
04/08/2010 +030,863,719,709.59 ------------**********
04/09/2010 -000,215,194,285.06 ---
04/12/2010 -000,193,173,374.30 --- Mon

172,248,584,651.38 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4341599&mesg_id=4341632

:donut: :donut: :donut:
I hope you have a nice day. Time is nigh for me to depart.

:hi:

He says the recession is OVER. If the host of Mad Money says it, it must be true.



(For those of you unfamiliar with this thread, a lot of that was sarcasm. for instance, Ozy and Cramer mix like oil and fire. It is true that Cramer SAID the recession is over. In fact, he said the Dow hitting 11,000 proves it. But what he says corresponds with truth about as much as what Sarah Palin says corresponds with intelligence.

In his defense, I will note that in a very narrow, economist definition of recession, the recession ended some time ago, as soon as the GDP turned upwards. But what everybody else thinks recession means includes the recovery period, and we're far, far from full recovery. And, in fact, the Dow hitting 11,000 proves that, since the Dow first hit 11,000 back in the year 2000, ten long, lo-o-o-ong years ago.

Cramer did admit that to the vast numbers of unemployed, it doesn't feel like the recession is over and won't until they start getting hired. He predicts that may be a year away. Personally, I don't see 8.5 million jobs appearing in the next year. The best I'm hoping for is a gradually improving employment situation. And I believe I'm considered a rosy glasses wearing optimist around here.)

edit: John Hussman for a different viewpoint...

4/12/10 Dow Closes Above 11,000; This Rally Has Ignored Fundamentals, and Will Be Corrected Painfully, Hussman Says

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed above 11,000 Monday, the first time since September 2008. The Standard & Poor's 500 index neared 1,200.

The market rebound we've experienced is near an end, and we should have seen it coming, according to John Hussman of Hussman Funds.

Here's a breakdown of why Hussman thinks that, even if you ignore questions about the banking system, this market is clearly in line for a correction.

* Investors have gone through two massive loss periods in the past 12 years, and only gained 2.4% if they tracked the S&P.
* Returns are going to be low over the next several years, and while there might have been a price low in March 2009, the valuation low has yet to be found. It may take another 6-8 years.
* This low return on the S&P is not the result of other potential crises looming in the system, including credit problems, but simple fundamentals.
* People are now buying into the market, relying on economic growth and the absence of another credit crisis, rather than on fundamentals.

As such, says Hussman:

This outcome is not dependent on whether or not we observe a second set of credit strains, but is instead baked into the cake as a predictable result of prevailing valuations. The risk of further credit strains simply adds an additional layer of concern here. Investors have chased risky securities over the past year to the point where the risk premium for default risk has eroded to the levels we saw at the peak of the credit bubble in 2007. My sense is that this is a mistake that will be painfully corrected. Investors now rely on a sustained economic recovery and the absence of any additional credit strains - and even then would be likely to achieve only tepid long-term returns from these levels.

http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/dow-closes-above-11000-this-rally-has-ignored-fundamentals-and-will-be-corrected-painfully-hussman-says-465159.html?tickers=^dji,dia,^gspc,spy,tlt,^ixic,gld

It was 14,000 just before the Big Tank hit. So, if anything 11,000 means nothing...

Another thing to keep in mind is that those pushing the hardest that 11,000 is gold are those who are already IN and may very well be trying to... Um, sell at the top? Keep it in mind.

If on the set with Mr. Kramer - it would be an impossible task to be civil. I admire Jon Sewart's restraint when he pilloried the guy on the Daily Show. He does deserve the contempt of decent people, the non-whore variety of people.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100412/ap_on_bi_ge/us_bailout_warrants

The Treasury Department says it has authorized another six auctions of bank warrants over the next six weeks to recoup taxpayer money from the controversial financial bailout program.

The Treasury said Monday the institutions involved include Wells Fargo & Co., PNC Financial Group Inc., Comerica Inc. and three other banks.

Warrants are financial instruments that allow the holder to buy stock in the future at a fixed price. The government received the warrants as compensation for support provided from the $700 billion bailout fund.

Treasury said the warrants would be auctioned over the next six weeks with details on the timing and minimum bid prices to be disclosed in upcoming announcements. The other three banks participating in this latest group of warrant sales were Valley National Bancorp, Sterling Bancshares Inc. and First Financial Bancorp.

The warrant auctions are held when Treasury and the banks cannot agree on a price for the warrants.

Under the law establishing the bailout fund in October 2008, the government required Treasury to obtain warrants for shares of common stock. The warrants were designed to give taxpayers an additional return on the government's investment.

The Treasury released a new budget report on Monday which officially lowered the cost of the bailout program, known as the Troubled Asset Relief Program, by $115 billion. The administration is putting the new estimate for the cost at $117 billion, down from a previous estimate of $232 billion.

click link for video

4/13/10 The Most Ridiculous Excuse Ever: "No One Saw The Crisis Coming"

One by one, the perceived villains of the financial crisis have been paraded in front of Congress. And, one by one, the perceived villains have invoked the defense that Doris "Tanta" Dungey at Calculated Risk once dubbed "Hoocoodanode" (Who could have known?")

In other words, don't blame us--because no one could have seen the crisis coming.

Whether any particular individual deserves the blame for the financial crisis is a different question. Based on the frequency and regularity with which such crises occur, the answer is probably "no." Everyone got caught up in it together, and, as is often the case, too many people extrapolated the recent past into the hereafter.

But for those who have spent their lives and careers around the financial markets, the "Hoocoodanode" defense is preposterous. There's never any certainty in economic or market forecasting. Ever. The quickest of glances at history, meanwhile, suggests that surprising pullbacks and problems occur all the time.

So for folks like Bob Rubin (former Treasury Secretary and Citi advisor) and Alan Greenspan (former Fed Chair) to suggest that the financial crisis was impossible to foresee is disingenuous. The particulars of the crisis--the when, what, and how--might have been impossible to foresee. But the idea that, someday, there might be a day of reckoning, and that this day of reckoning might catch people by surprise, is as basic as economic and market forecasting gets.

Ken Posner, a former financial-services analyst at Morgan Stanley and author of Stalking The Black Swan, says that what people need to do is prepare themselves for such crises and behave as though they might occur anytime. He also says that, when the crises do occur, people in power need to learn to see them faster--and react accordingly.

click link for video

http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/the-most-ridiculous-excuse-ever-%22no-one-saw-the-crisis-coming%22-465453.html?tickers=c,xlf,^dji,spy,^gspc,ms,gs&sec=topStories&pos=9&asset=&ccode=

click link for video, more about "no one saw it coming"

4/12/10 Posner: Govt. Can't Prevent a Crisis But That Doesn't Mean Taxpayers Have to Pay the Price

Tech Ticker has talked to many guests recently about ways to prevent the next crisis, including Simon Johnson and Roger Lowenstein.

Today's guest is Kenneth Posner, the former head of financial services research at Morgan Stanley and author of Staking the Black Swan. He says no matter the extent of regulation, the threat of crisis will always exist.

"The worst thing that Americans can do, would be to assume the government can protect them from crisis and make crises go away," Posner states, declaring "crisis is the price we pay for innovation."

Posner says it's the government's role to react quickly to crisis, minimize the damage and prevent taxpayers from footing the bill. He suggests two ways of accomplishing this goal of reducing the 'price' of innovation:

-- Create a group of regulators, be it at the Fed or some other institution, who constantly monitor market conditions looking for potential risks. "I don't think they could ever stop a boom in its tracks but if they're anticipating the risk they could draw up contingency plans," he says.

-- Force banks to create contingent capital. "Make systemically important financial institutions issue a form of sub debt that automatically converts to equity in the event of a crisis," Posner says. This would result in quicker crisis resolution and avoid the need for a taxpayer bailout.

click link for video

http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/posner-govt.-can%27t-prevent-a-crisis-but-that-doesn%27t-mean-taxpayers-have-to-pay-the-price-464962.html?tickers=^dji,^gspc,xlf,fnm,fre,c,aig

Consumer Reports calls Lexus GX 460 unsafe
‘Don't buy’ warning is another blow to Toyota's now-tarnished reputation


By Dan Strumpf
updated 21 minutes ago

NEW YORK - Consumer Reports has given the Lexus GX 460 SUV a rare "Don't Buy" warning, saying a problem that occurred during routine handling tests could lead to a rollover accident in real-world driving.

In the latest blow to Toyota's reputation, the magazine said that during a test of the vehicle's performance during unusual turns, the rear of the vehicle slid until it was nearly sideways before the electronic stability control system kicked in.

Consumer Reports said in real-world driving, such a scenario could cause a rollover accident. As a result, the magazine has given the seven-seat SUV a "Don't Buy: Safety Risk" label until the problem is fixed.

"In a real world situation, by that time, the car can hit the curb or the side of the road and that's the situation where, in a vehicle like that, it could cause it to roll over," said Gabriel Shenhar, senior auto test engineer at Consumer Reports, who was one of four testers to experience the problem.

Consumer Reports said the last vehicle to receive such a warning was the 2001 Mitsubishi Montero Limited. It said among the 95 SUVs in its current ratings, no other slid as far as the GX 460.

In a statement Toyota said it is concerned with Consumer Reports' findings, adding that its engineers will try to duplicate the magazine's tests to determine its next steps.

"Please keep in mind that the 2010 GX 460 meets or exceeds all federal government testing requirements," the automaker said. "We take the Consumer Reports' test results seriously."

(snip)

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/36457556/ns/business-autos/

---------------------------------------

I think my next car is gonna be a Ford.

Clever use of words... Now, did the cars PASS those tests? Self-regulation will be the end of Human kind.

Maybe some rationality in the market. The GX 460 can't produce very much of Toyota's sales. If they never sold another one, it probably wouldn't have much effect on their profits.

I gotta say Toyota really screwed up this recession. In past recessions, Toyota gained market share at the expense of American car companies. With GM and Chrysler going through bankruptcy, they had an opportunity to capitalize that had to make every auto executive in Tokyo drool, but . . . Ford came out the winner.

http://www.inteldaily.com/2010/04/gold-manipulation/

Back in November 2009, Andrew Maguire, a former Goldman Sachs silver trader in Goldman’s London office, contacted the CFTC’s Enforcement Division and reported the illegal manipulation of the silver market by traders at JPMorgan Chase.

Maguire told the CFTC how silver traders at JPMorgan Chase openly bragged about their exploits - including how they sent a signal to the market in advance so that other traders could make a profit during price suppression episodes.

snip

On February 3rd, Maguire gave the CFTC a two day warning of a market manipulation event by email to Eliud Ramirez, who is a senior investigator for the CFTC’s Enforcement Division.

snip

And it wasn’t just that Maguire predicted that the price would be forced down. It was the level of precision that he was able to communicate to the CFTC that was the most stunning. He warned the CFTC that the price of silver was to be taken down regardless of what happened to the employment numbers and that the price of silver would end up below $15 per ounce. Over the next couple of days, the price of silver was indeed taken down from $16.17 per ounce down to a low of $14.62 per ounce.


/snip

I don't know anything about gold or gold prices, but I do know that if this is true, the pooch is screwn.

(cross posting to GD)