Nick Clegg (Lib-Dem) now in contention as potential PM, Guardian/ICM poll shows

Source: Manchester Guardian



Read more: http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2010/apr/16/nick-clegg-guardian-icm-poll-pm

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Still a ways to go till the election, but I think the Liberals and Conservatives may be running too much of an old-school campaign which doesn't play well today.

It would also be great to see Romney get the nomination in 2012 and then have someone like Palin or Ron Paul run as a Tea Party candidate. :toast:

Watching some of the highlights from the debate, I'm going to go find out moor about him.

Sounds like he had a great debate.

Labour's got little left to offer and the Tories are still stuck in the 1980's (Cameron's "compassionate conservative" language is just a shallow ploy).

I'm really surprised he thinks it's OK to run as a kinder/gentler/hipper Margaret Thatcher.

He's knicked the "hope and change" shtick ad nauseum.

I like a lot of Lib Dem policies, but Clegg strikes me as just another empty suit. A windbag who'd sell his own granny for power. I'd much rather that Charles Kennedy was still leader of the Lib Dems.

All this gumph about a Lib Dem surge is based on Cleggs performance in the first leaders debate. Aside from that the Lib Dem campaign really hasn't been much to write home about.

There was some misreporting of a poll taken after the debate. Some people confused the figures for 'those who had watched the debate' with 'all voters'. Here's what it actually said:



So the Lib Dems appear to have gained 3% from the debate. That's good - it could mean they hang on to just about all the seats they have now, rather than lose perhaps 20% (which they had been facing), and might even gain one or 2 seats from Labour. But there is still no realistic chance of Clegg becoming PM. If there is a hung parliament, there might be more chance of a formal coalition now, which might include the Lib Dems getting one or two cabinet seats. But even that is by no means guaranteed.

Here in Canada. It's lots of fun.

Conservative Majority 8/11
None (Hung Parliament) 6/5
Labour Majority 14/1

And then if there's a hung parliament:
Who will Lib Dems form a coalition in a hung parliament?
Neither 4/9
Labour 3/1
Conservatives 9/2

So (allowing for the profit they build into their odds) they think a Tory majority about 53% likely; Lab majority 6%; Lab-Lib Dem coalition 9%; Con-Lib Dem coalition 7%; and minority govt (Con or Lab) 26%.

There are a few other parties to confuse things - Unionists in Northern Ireland, mainly.

And Greens, which confuse matters as well (though they don't have seats yet). I guess you can't know how it shakes down until the votes are counted and the possible post-election jockeying is done.

I am torn. Blair's foreign policy was a disaster in my opinion (mostly Iraq). But I gather he had some positives, in matters such as post-secondary education and some other domestic issues. I find it hard to support Conservatives, though I can go along with what we call "Red Toryism" if the leader strikes me as ok. I suppose the Liberal Democrats ought to be like our Liberal Party, which I can support in this context. But I don't get to vote, so I guess it's all hypothetical from that point of view.

Anyway good luck with it.

Looking at the polling that's coming out, it's not impossible.

It's too unlikely. It'd be the biggest surprise, not just in British electoral history, but, I'd contend, world democracy. The electoral system, and the distribution of people who might consider voting Lib Dem, and those who always vote Labour or Tory, just aren't set up for it.

For which party gets the largest number of seats, we have:

Conservatives 1/6
Labour 4/1
Liberal Democrats 25/1

http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/uk-election-betting?ev_oc_grp_ids=64933

After tonight's poll, they've changed the hung parliament odds a little:

Conservative Majority 5/6
None (Hung Parliament) evens
Labour Majority 14/1

What about 50/1 to win most seats?

This has been one of Nick Clegg’s better weeks in office. A generally acknowledged win in the first debate - held on an even footing with the other two party leaders, which itself was a bonus on the usual situation - was followed up by a lot of very favourable coverage and yesterday’s outstanding YouGov poll, placing the Lib Dems within a 2% swing of having the largest share.

In sport, the phrase ‘peaking too early’ is often dismissively applied to teams who put in a great performance early in a competition. Sometimes that’s right and the side tails off but it doesn’t necessarily follow: at the very least, it makes the competition sit up and take notice.



Normally, such a bet would be an absurd prospect: assuming around 30-35 Others, the Lib Dems would need an absolute minimum of 210 to be the largest party and in all probability are not fighting seriously (i.e. to win) in anywhere near all of them. However, these are not normal times.

Full article: http://www6.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2010/04/17/how-high-can-the-lib-dems-go/

I agree that it would be a historic surprise but if I was in England I'd put £10 on it. At 50 to 1 it's a lot to gain and not much to lose.

have had their faults. Labour has been hawkish while the Conservatives are pro-wealthy and the elite.

In Britain it is not really the party leader that wins the election.

Months ago Clegg said that in the event of a hung parliament he would form an alliance with the party that got the most votes.

Brown, like Blair, loves war as much as the Tories do.

yes there are similarities between B-liar and Clegg.

The election in Britain is turning out to be quite exciting.

Con 33%, Lib Dem 30%, Lab 28%

This is their regular poll.

http://www.today.yougov.co.uk/politics/latest-voting-intention-16-april

http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/Politics/Sun-YouGov-Poll-Puts-Labour-In-Third-Place-Lib-Dems-Up-Eight-To-Second-After-First-Leaders-Debate/Article/201004315606044?lpos=Politics_First_UK_News_Article_Teaser_Region_2&lid=ARTICLE_15606044_Sun_YouGov_Poll_Puts_Labour_In_Third_Place%2C_Lib_Dems_Up_Eight_To_Second_After_First_Leaders_Debate

which is very important to them will get a lot more light (that being proportional representation).

Just what our own country needs, a Liberal Democrat Party (that's their actual name in case you are wondering about the use of the term "Democrat").

There are two more debates (I think!), Clegg needs to be ready to be attacked by Brown and Cameron.

Current post-debate polls show that although they are always in second or third in terms of the popular vote, Labour - as a result of a Lib Dem surge - would hold the most seats. As the Tories are the only party not to support electoral reform it would make a Lab-Lib coalition almost certain in my eyes. Labour, in some areas, are still somewhat to the left of the Lib Dems (welfare in particular) so that would be no bad thing.

Drives me up the wall.

....onto an out of scale bar chart, with the caption "ONLY THE LIB DEMS CAN WIN HERE!" That's what I want to know.

The 1st time they have been leading in a general election for 104 years.

I posted details about this here: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x8172753