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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-04-10 04:32 AM
Original message
STOCK MARKET WATCH, Tuesday May 4
Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Tuesday May 4, 2010

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON May 3, 2010

Dow... 11,151.83 +143.22 (+1.28%)
Nasdaq... 2,498.74 +37.55 (+1.50%)
S&P 500... 1,202.26 +15.57 (+1.30%)
Gold future... 1,182 -1.40 (-0.12%)
10-Yr Bond... 3.68 +0.03 (+0.68%)
30-Year Bond 4.52 +0.01 (+0.15%)



Market Conditions During Trading Hours


Euro, Yen, Loonie, Silver and Gold






Handy Links - Market Data and News:
Economic Calendar    Marketwatch Data    Bloomberg Economic News    Yahoo! Finance    Google Finance    Bank Tracker    
Credit Union Tracker    Daily Job Cuts

Handy Links - Economic Blogs:

The Big Picture    Financial Sense    Calculated Risk    Naked Capitalism    Credit Writedowns
Brad DeLong      Bonddad    Atrios    goldmansachs666    The Stand-Up Economist

Handy Links - Government Issues:

LegitGov    Open Government    Earmark Database    USA spending.gov

Bush Administration Officials Convicted = 2
Names: David Safavian, James Fondren

Bush Administration Officials Charged = 1
Name(s): Richard Lopez Razo

Financial Sector Officials Convicted since 1/20/09 =
11









This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.

Read more: du
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-04-10 04:34 AM
Response to Original message
1. Today's Reports
10:00 Factory Orders Mar
Briefing.com -0.4%
Consensus -0.2%
Prior 0.6%

10:00 Pending Home Sales Mar
Briefing.com 7.0%
Consensus 5.0%
Prior 8.2%

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-04-10 04:35 AM
Response to Original message
2. Oil below $86 as traders eye US crude supplies
SINGAPORE – Oil prices dropped below $86 a barrel Tuesday in Asia as traders anticipated another increase in U.S. crude supplies from a government report due later this week.

Oil touched an 18-month high of $87.15 a barrel Monday, and has jumped about 23 percent since February on investor expectations that a growing U.S. and global economy will boost demand.

But U.S. crude inventories have risen in recent weeks and likely gained another 1.5 million barrels last week, according to a survey by Platts, the energy information arm of McGraw-Hill Cos.

In other Nymex trading in June contracts, heating oil fell 0.34 cent to $2.342 a gallon, and gasoline slipped 1.55 cents to $2.420 a gallon. Natural gas was steady at $3.992 per 1,000 cubic feet.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-04-10 04:38 AM
Response to Original message
3. April auto sales up 20 percent in gradual recovery
DETROIT (Reuters) – Auto sales rose about 20 percent in April from recession-stunted results a year earlier, reflecting a still-gradual recovery in the economy.

However, the figures were not as robust as some had hoped, particularly given incentives and a slew of economic data that suggest an economy on the mend after the deepest downturn since the depression of the 1930s.

U.S. auto sales slipped by about 8 percent in April from March, about what industry executives had expected with a slight pullback on incentives overall, but all the largest automakers posted sales increases over a year earlier.

General Motors Co (GM.UL) posted a 6.4 percent sales increase from a year earlier, but held its position as the No. 1 seller in the United States by a wide margin in April over Ford. Toyota was third.

Excluding its discontinuing brands, GM sales rose 20 percent in April from a year earlier when the auto industry was bracing for bankruptcies by GM and Chrysler.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20100503/bs_nm/us_autos_usa
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-04-10 04:40 AM
Response to Original message
4. Factory growth rises, consumer spending up
NEW YORK (Reuters) – Manufacturing registered its fastest pace of growth in nearly six years in April while data on construction and consumer spending pointed to further strength in the economy.

Consumer spending, which accounts for over two-thirds of economic activity, rose in March for a sixth straight month, the Commerce Department reported on Monday.

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said its index of national manufacturing activity rose to 60.4 in April from 59.6 in March, beating Reuters' median forecast for a reading of 60. A rise in the employment component showed employers were more confident about hiring.

Despite the positive numbers, a top White House economic aide said more effort was needed to help the economy and warned a pull back in government aid could harm a fragile recovery.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20100503/bs_nm/us_usa_economy
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-04-10 04:42 AM
Response to Original message
5. Fed: Banks see loan demand weaken
WASHINGTON – Most banks are seeing weaker demand for loans from both consumers and businesses, one of the forces restraining the vigor of the economic recovery.

The information, contained in a quarterly survey released by the Federal Reserve on Monday, suggests Americans don't have much of an appetite to take on new debt as they repair their finances after the worst recession since the 1930s.

The survey found that demand over the last three months slipped further for home loans geared to the most creditworthy borrowers, for home equity loans and for business loans.

In addition, most banks said they have tightened standards and terms on credit cards used by small businesses. Those standards are tighter now than before the financial crisis, the Fed said. That's serving as another restraint on the recovery.

Many small companies use credit cards to pay salaries and finance operations, while bigger companies turn to capital markets for credit. Small banks have been especially hit by soured commercial real-estate loans. That's crimped lending to small businesses.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100503/ap_on_bi_ge/us_fed_bank_lending
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-04-10 04:44 AM
Response to Original message
6. Wall St futures lower; earnings, data eyed
(Reuters) – Futures for the Dow Jones industrial average, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 were down 0.3 to 0.4 percent, pointing to a weaker start on Wall Street on Tuesday.

Pfizer is expected to say it earned 53 cents per share, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S, down 1 cent from the same quarter a year ago. Merck (MRK.N) is expected to report that its earnings rose by 1 cent per share to 75 cents.

Other major companies to announce results include News Corp (NWSA.O), MasterCard and NYSE Euronext.

At 4:45 a.m. EST, ICSC/Goldman Sachs release chain store sales for the week ended May 1 versus the prior week. In the previous week, sales rose 0.2 percent.

The Senate will cast its first votes on Tuesday on a sweeping Wall Street reform bill, with passage of a handful of uncontroversial amendments expected and a key procedural question still unsettled.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20100504/bs_nm/us_markets_stocks
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-04-10 04:46 AM
Response to Original message
7. Asia stocks lower on China fears; Thailand surges
SINGAPORE – Asian stocks were mostly lower Tuesday on investor concerns that Chinese moves to slow a soaring property market will undermine economic growth while Thai stocks vaulted on hopes of a resolution to the country's political crisis. European shares opened mixed.

China's benchmark index in Shanghai led decliners, falling 35.33 points, or 1.2 percent, to 2,835.28 while Taiwan's market dropped 0.3 percent and Australia's index retreated 1 percent.

Elsewhere, Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell 48.31, or 0.2 percent, at 20,763.05 while Indonesia gained 0.2 percent. South Korea's Kospi, meanwhile, slipped 0.1 percent to 1,718.75. Singapore dropped 1 percent.

As trading got started in Europe, the FTSE 100 index of leading British shares was down 0.6 percent while France's CAC-40 was flat and Germany's DAX added 0.4 percent. Futures pointed to slight losses Tuesday on Wall Street.

In Thailand, the benchmark stock index surged 4.1 percent after Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva proposed a Nov. 14 date for fresh polls if anti-government protesters occupying central Bangkok accept his reconciliation plan and peace and stability is restored.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100504/ap_on_bi_ge/world_markets
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Ghost Dog Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-04-10 10:25 AM
Response to Reply #7
29. China Rate hikes around the corner
China could raise interest rates after the release of the second-quarter economic data in mid-July, economists said, if statistics show inflation rising strongly despite Sunday's move to mop up liquidity.

The People's Bank of China, the central bank, hiked the reserve requirement ratio (RRR), or money commercial banks must keep as reserves, by 50 basis points, effective from May 10. It was the third such hike this year, with rural credit cooperatives and village and small township banks being exempt from the adjustment.

"The move aims to tighten liquidity," said Song Guoqing, senior economist with Peking University's National School of Development. "Liquidity pressure has been accumulating since the second half of last year," he said.

China's stunning 9.6 trillion yuan ($1.4 trillion) new yuan loans last year - in almost double that of 2008 - is believed to have not only turned around the country's economic growth momentum from the fallout of the global financial crisis, but also pushed up asset prices and consumer inflation.

The consumer price index (CPI), a main gauge of inflation, reached 2.2 percent in the first quarter of this year, compared with the 2.25 percent interest rate for benchmark one-year bank savings.

"Although CPI inflation remains modest on both year-on-year and sequential terms for now, producer and property prices have been increasing very quickly already and we believe it is just a matter of time before the CPI inflation rises to higher levels," Goldman Sachs economists said in a report.

Top research teams from Peking University and Tsinghua University forecast inflation could be well above 3 percent in the second quarter, effectively driving real interest rates into negative territory.

If that happens, interest rate hikes would be inevitable, possibly before mid-July, when the National Bureau of Statistics is scheduled to release the data, analysts said.

/... http://english.people.com.cn/90001/90778/90862/6971909.html
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-04-10 04:53 AM
Response to Original message
8. BP Gulf Oil Spill Reshaping Energy Debate in Congress
The oil leak spreading 5,000 barrels of crude a day in the Gulf of Mexico is reshaping the politics of the energy debate as Congress considers U.S. climate policy and lawmakers brace for the November elections.

California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, a Republican, withdrew his support for offshore oil drilling yesterday, following a similar move by Florida Governor Charlie Crist, who raised doubts about environmental safety. One official who said the drilling should continue is former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin, the 2008 Republican vice presidential nominee.

The oil leak spreading 5,000 barrels of crude a day in the Gulf of Mexico is reshaping the politics of the energy debate as Congress considers U.S. climate policy and lawmakers brace for the November elections.

California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, a Republican, withdrew his support for offshore oil drilling yesterday, following a similar move by Florida Governor Charlie Crist, who raised doubts about environmental safety. One official who said the drilling should continue is former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin, the 2008 Republican vice presidential nominee.

http://preview.bloomberg.com/news/2010-05-04/bp-gulf-oil-spill-is-reshaping-energy-climate-debate-among-u-s-lawmakers.html
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hamerfan Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-04-10 04:54 AM
Response to Original message
9. Thanks for the 'toon!
Good morning, Ozy and everyone else.
That cartoon is right on the money!
hamerfan
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-04-10 05:03 AM
Response to Reply #9
10. You're welcome.
It does not get any plainer than that. If I were a soulless capitalist, that would be my response too.
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-04-10 05:07 AM
Response to Original message
11. Pelosi: Bush Admin Barred Officials From Briefing Congress On Impending Financial Crisis
Nearly two years after the Wall Street meltdown drove the U.S. economy to the brink of collapse, and forced the U.S. government to prop up major financial institutions with hundreds of billions of dollars, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi now claims that the Bush Administration prohibited its own top officials who were handling the emerging crisis from briefing Congress until a complete financial collapse was only hours away.

In little-noticed statements to reporters over the last few weeks, Pelosi has alleged that the Bush administration knew well in advance of its intervention that the financial crisis would hit, and that Congress would need to authorize a historic and unpopular bailout - but that top officials, including then-Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, told her that they had been barred from briefing Congress about true extent of the crisis.

If accurate, the allegation could constitute a major indictment of the Bush administration, which may have worsened the crisis and resulting economic fallout by delaying the call for congressional action. Pelosi says the admissions from Bush administration officials that they had kept Congress in the dark came in private conversations between her and those officials in person and by phone. None of the other parties to those conversations would comment for this story. Nor is it clear if the Administration's alleged decision not to brief Congress earlier was a calculated strategy to avoid spooking the already shaky financial markets thus hastening the crisis or, as Pelosi suggests, a political calculation in advance of the 2008 presidential elections, or a combination of the two.

http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2010/05/pelosi-bush-administration-barred-officials-from-asking-congress-for-financial-sector-bailouts.php

No surprise from me. Although it is still infuriating how the Bush administration politicized damn near everything.
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fasttense Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-04-10 05:50 AM
Response to Reply #11
13. Is that the same Nancy Pelosi who announced to the bushes that Impeachment was off the table?
When you lay down with dogs, you get up with fleas.

Maybe if the Democratic leadership had acted half as aggressively as the current minority party does, then we wouldn't have had as many disasters on our hands.
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-04-10 05:09 AM
Response to Original message
12. Good morning, all and I hope you have a nice day.
:donut: :donut: :donut:
I have last minute work to do for my classes. I'll check back when the day is done.
:hi:
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AnneD Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-04-10 07:21 AM
Response to Reply #12
17. Morning Marketeers...
:donut: I went out last night and had a wonder sea food dinner last night. The oysters and crawfish were in season so it was perfect-one of the best dinners I have had in a while. Boiled shrimp and crawfish, oysters on the half self washed down with with an ice cold beer.

It did a lot to lift my spirits and remind me why I live here. We are night shocked that it is BP that has the problem in the oil patch have always referred to it as the broke and patch oil company. You might remember them as the folks that recently had the refinery disaster. It didn't take the jury of local folks to fine the hell out of them

Well-I have to leave.

Happy hunting and watch out for the bears.
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-04-10 07:13 AM
Response to Original message
14. Funds May Exit Reverse Repos in Seven Days Under Fed Terms
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-04-30/funds-may-exit-reverse-repos-in-seven-days-under-fed-terms.html

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York said money-market mutual funds would be able to exit reverse repurchase agreements within seven days if policy makers use them when the central bank begins draining the record amount of cash added to the banking system.

A seven-day put option would allow funds participating in the reverse repo program to have a percentage of investments in relatively liquid assets, the New York Fed said on its website today.

Firms in the more than $3 trillion U.S. money-market mutual fund industry should be able to sell 10 percent of their assets in one day and 30 percent within a week under Securities and Exchange Commission guidelines. A reverse repo contract isn’t considered liquid beyond seven days.

The New York Fed announced on March 8 that it planned to expand counterparties beyond its 18 primary dealers by adding money-market funds when it begins using reverse repos to drain reserves.

In a reverse repo, the Fed lends securities for a set period, draining cash from the banking system. At maturity, the securities are returned to the Fed, and the cash to the primary dealers.

The New York Fed’s model agreement posted on its website is based on a form used by the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association, Wall Street’s largest trade group.

Policy makers are debating how to withdraw the emergency programs aimed at reviving the economy without disrupting financial markets or bank liquidity as the recovery gains strength. Along with raising the overnight bank lending rate, Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke has said officials may use reverse repos, pay interest on excess bank reserves and sell securities directly to investors to withdraw or neutralize cash.

The Fed also issued the final version of regulations for the term deposit facility, a tool to tighten credit by draining cash from the banking system, and said it will test the program in coming months.

ANY BETS AS TO WHETHER THIS WILL BLOW UP LIKE CDOS AND NAKED SHORTS?
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-04-10 07:15 AM
Response to Original message
15. FDIC’s Bair Opposes Lincoln’s Proposal to Segregate Swaps Units
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-05-03/fdic-s-bair-opposes-lincoln-s-proposal-to-segregate-swaps-units.html

Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Chairman Sheila Bair is opposing a Senate measure that could cut off privileges to banks like Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. that don’t segregate swaps trading units.

Bair, in an April 30 letter to Senate Banking Chairman Christopher Dodd and Agriculture Committee Chairman Blanche Lincoln, said the proposal championed by Lincoln would create “weakened, not strengthened, protection of the insured bank.”

“If all derivatives market-making activities were moved outside of bank holding companies, most of the activity would no doubt continue, but in less-regulated and more highly leveraged venues,” Bair wrote. “Even pushing the activity into a bank holding company affiliate would reduce the amount and quality of capital required to be held against this activity.”

Lincoln has said she isn’t sure her plan to make banks wall off their swaps-trading desks has enough support to become part of the Senate’s overhaul of financial regulations. Bair is the third U.S. regulator to express concern about proposals to curb participation by banks in swaps, which some lawmakers said helped bring the financial system to the brink of collapse.

Comptroller of the Currency John Dugan has said he disagrees with Lincoln’s provision. The Federal Reserve, in an April 24 staff analysis, said the proposal could prove costly to banks and customers.

Lincoln, the Arkansas Democrat who drafted the provision, has pushed to keep it in the regulatory overhaul legislation now on the Senate floor.

Discount Window

The proposal would bar companies that deal in swaps, a form of derivatives, from bank privileges such as access to the Federal Reserve’s discount lending window and emergency liquidity functions, and the FDIC’s deposit guarantee. The purpose, Lincoln has said, is to protect taxpayers and the banks who pay assessments to the Deposit Insurance Fund from financial institutions that deal in riskier forms of trading.

“This provision is to ensure that banks get back to the business of banking and that depositors are protected from the risky behavior of Wall Street,” Lincoln said in a statement provided by her office. “I will review Chairman Bair’s letter carefully and give it the consideration it deserves.”

Senators including Republicans Judd Gregg of New Hampshire and Bob Corker of Tennessee have criticized the provision and sought its removal.

IF JUDD GREGG IS AGAINST IT, I'M FOR IT~!
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-04-10 07:17 AM
Response to Reply #15
16. UPDATE 1-CDS show Goldman now equal risk to Morgan Stanley
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN0323249320100503

Goldman Sachs' (GS.N) credit risks are now comparable to those of Morgan Stanley (MS.N) for the first time since October 2007 based on prices of credit default swaps insuring the banks' debt, Markit data showed on Monday.

Morgan Stanley's credit default swaps had traded at a higher cost than Goldman's since 2007, indicating market perceptions that Goldman had less credit risk than Morgan Stanley.

Credit default swaps on Goldman and Morgan Stanley both traded at around 162 basis points on Monday, or $162,000 per year for five years to insure $10 million in debt, according to Markit Intraday.

The difference between CDS spreads on Goldman and Morgan Stanley has narrowed from around 30 basis points in March, and from more than 100 basis points in April 2009, Markit data show.

Goldman's debt and CDS have come under pressure since the bank on April 16 was charged with fraud by the Securities and Exchange Commission over its marketing of a subprime mortgage product.

CDS protection on Goldman's debt has jumped in cost from around 90 basis points before the SEC's statement.

Goldman on Monday, in a rare move, disclosed information about the many lawsuits and shareholder challenges facing the bank.

HOIST ON THEIR OWN PETARD
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-04-10 07:21 AM
Response to Reply #16
18. CORRECTED - Goldman makes rare, extensive lawsuit disclosure-CORRECTED-UPDATE 1
http://www.forexyard.com/en/news/Goldman-makes-rare-extensive-lawsuit-disclosure-2010-05-03T213119Z-CORRECTED-UPDATE-1

* Company says facing "several shareholder actions"

* Claims range from corporate waste to unjust enrichment

* Lawsuits seek damages, reform

By Steve Eder

NEW YORK, May 3 (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs Group Inc, in a rare move, disclosed information about the many lawsuits and shareholder challenges facing the bank.

Goldman, which made the disclosure in a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange commission, has been criticized for being too tight-lipped about its legal entanglements.

The disclosure came nearly a week after Chief Executive Lloyd Blankfein faced off with a Senate panel about the role the dominant Wall Street bank played in the subprime mortgage market meltdown.

It comes after Goldman lawyers received a subpoena to testify or give information in an insider trading case that parallels the U.S. government's case against the Galleon hedge fund's founder, Raj Rajaratnam, according to a court document made public on Monday.

The Goldman filing says several shareholder lawsuits have been filed against the bank, accusing it and its executives of "breach of fiduciary duty, corporate waste, abuse of control, mismanagement and unjust enrichment ... and challenging the accuracy and completeness of GS Inc's disclosure."

Goldman, which included copies of a half dozen shareholder complaints in the filing and a shareholder letter, said the lawsuits seek declaratory relief, compensatory damages, restitution and corporate governance reforms.

The shareholder lawsuits began pouring in after the SEC accused Goldman of failing to tell investors the securities underlying a so-called synthetic collateralized debt obligation were chosen by billionaire hedge fund investor John Paulson, whose fund was betting that the CDO would lose value.

Goldman also has been criticized for not telling shareholders that it received a Wells Notice last summer from the SEC, signaling the likelihood of civil charges.

Some of the shareholder lawsuits allege Goldman's failure to disclose the Wells Notice cost them dearly, given the 21 percent drop in the company's shares since the filing of the SEC civil suit.

GALLEON

Goldman also received a subpoena to testify or provide information in a case of alleged insider trading, according to a court document made public on Monday.

The subpoena to Goldman Sachs & Co and Goldman Sachs Execution and Clearing LP on April 15, requests "all trading records and monthly account statements associated with account number UF703881" of Michael Kimelman, a former trader at Quad Capital LLC and Incremental Capital.

Kimelman is charged in a case running parallel with the one U.S. prosecutors are pursuing against Galleon hedge fund founder Raj Rajaratnam. Prosecutors described the probe as the biggest-ever U.S. hedge fund insider trading case.

Kimelman was arrested and charged last Nov. 5 along with Zvi Goffer, a onetime Galleon employee who later started the Incremental Capital trading firm and five other traders or lawyers. They have all pleaded not guilty to an indictment and are free on bail.

The subpoena, signed by presiding Manhattan federal court Judge Richard Sullivan, was submitted by Kimelman's lawyer. It asks representatives of the investment bank's legal department to appear before the judge at a hearing in the case on May 14.

A spokesman for Goldman Sachs could not immediately be reached to comment. Lawyers for Kimelman could not be reached.

U.S. prosecutors have accused Rajaratnam of obtaining confidential information on Goldman, but have not formally included those in the charges, according to court documents.

Prosecutors said Rajaratnam sought information on the purchase by Warren Buffet's Berkshire Hathaway Inc of preferred Goldman shares before the transaction became public in 2008. They also said he conspired to obtain confidential information about Goldman's quarterly earnings before public announcements on or about June 17, 2008, and Dec. 16, 2008.

The Sri Lankan-born Rajaratnam, a U.S. citizen, has pleaded not guilty and is free on bail. (Reporting by Steve Eder and Grant McCool; editing by John Wallace, Maureen Bavdek, Andre Grenon and Robert MacMillan)
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-04-10 07:36 AM
Response to Original message
19. Was There A Plan to Blow Up The Economy By Mike Whitney
http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article25367.htm



May 03, 2010 "Information Clearing House" --Many people now believe that the financial crisis was not an accident. They think that the Bush administration and the Fed knew what Wall Street was up to and provided their support. This isn't as far fetched as it sounds. As we will show, it's clear that Bush, Greenspan and many other high-ranking officials understood the problem with subprime mortgages and knew that a huge asset bubble was emerging that threatened the economy. But while the housing bubble was more than just an innocent mistake, it doesn't rise to the level of "conspiracy" which Webster defines as "a secret agreement between two or more people to perform an unlawful act." It's actually worse than that, because bubblemaking is the dominant policy, and it's used to overcome the structural problems in capitalism itself, mainly stagnation.

The whole idea of a conspiracy diverts attention from what really happened. It conjures up a comical vision of top-hat business tycoons gathered in a smoke-filled room stealthily mapping out the country's future. It ignores the fact, that the main stakeholders don't need to convene a meeting to know what they want.They already know what they want; they want a process that helps them to maintain profitability even while the "real" economy remains stuck in the mud. Historian Robert Brenner has written extensively on this topic and dispels the mistaken view that the economy is "fundamentally strong". (in the words of former Treasury secretary Henry Paulson) Here's Brenner :

"The current crisis is more serious than the worst previous recession of the postwar period, between 1979 and 1982, and could conceivably come to rival the Great Depression, though there is no way of really knowing. Economic forecasters have underestimated how bad it is because they have over-estimated the strength of the real economy and failed to take into account the extent of its dependence upon a buildup of debt that relied on asset price bubbles. In the U.S., during the recent business cycle of the years 2001-2007, GDP growth was by far the slowest of the postwar epoch. There was no increase in private sector employment. The increase in plants and equipment was about a third of the previous, a postwar low. Real wages were basically flat. There was no increase in median family income for the first time since World War II. Economic growth was driven entirely by personal consumption and residential investment, made possible by easy credit and rising house prices. Economic performance was weak, even despite the enormous stimulus from the housing bubble and the Bush administration's huge federal deficits. Housing by itself accounted for almost one-third of the growth of GDP and close to half of the increase in employment in the years 2001-2005. It was, therefore, to be expected that when the housing bubble burst, consumption and residential investment would fall, and the economy would plunge. " ("Overproduction not Financial Collapse is the Heart of the Crisis", Robert P. Brenner speaks with Jeong Seong-jin, Asia Pacific Journal)


What Brenner describes is an economy that's flat on its back; an economy that--despite unfunded tax cuts, massive military spending and gigantic asset bubbles--can barely produce positive growth. The pervasive lethargy of mature capitalist economies, poses huge challenges for industry bosses who are judged solely on their ability to boost quarterly profits. Goldman's Lloyd Blankfein and JPM's Jamie Dimon could care less about economic theory, what they're interested in is making money; how to deploy their capital in a way that maximizes return on investment. "Profits", that's it. And that's much more difficult in a world that's saturated with overcapacity and flagging demand. The world doesn't need more widgets or widget-makers. The only way to ensure profitability is to invent an alternate system altogether, a new universe of financial exotica (CDOs, MBSs, CDSs) that operates independent of the sluggish real economy. Financialization provides that opportunity. It allows the main players to pump-up the leverage, minimize capital-outlay, inflate asset prices, and skim off record profits even while the real economy endures severe stagnation.

Financialization provides a path to wealth creation, which is why the sector's portion of total corporate profits is now nearly 40 percent. It's a way to bypass the pervasive inertia of the production-oriented economy. The Fed's role in this new paradigm is to create a hospitable environment (low interest rates) for bubble-making so the upward transfer of wealth can continue without interruption. Bubblemaking is policy.

As we've pointed out in earlier articles, scores of people knew what was going on during the subprime fiasco. But it's worth a quick review, because Robert Rubin, Alan Greenspan, Timothy Geithner, and others have been defending themselves saying, "Who could have known?".

The FBI knew ("In September 2004, the FBI began publicly warning that there was an "epidemic" of mortgage fraud, and it predicted that it would produce an economic crisis, if it were not dealt with.") The FDIC knew. ( In testimony before the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission, FDIC chairman Sheila Bair confirmed that she not only warned the Fed of what was going on in 2001, but cited particular regulations (HOEPA) under which the Fed could stop the "unfair, abusive and deceptive practices" by the banks.) Also Fitch ratings knew, and even Alan Greenspan's good friend and former Fed governor Ed Gramlich knew. (Gramlich personally warned Greenspan of the surge in predatory lending that was apparent as early as 2000. Here's a bit of what Gramlich said in the Wall Street Journal:

"I would have liked the Fed to be a leader" in cracking down on predatory lending, Mr. Gramlich, now a scholar at the Urban Institute, said in an interview this past week. Knowing it would be controversial with Mr. Greenspan, whose deregulatory philosophy is well known, Mr. Gramlich broached it to him personally rather than take it to the full board.

"He was opposed to it, so I didn't really pursue it," says Mr. Gramlich. (Wall Street Journal)


So, Greenspan knew, too. And, according to Elizabeth MacDonald in an article titled "Housing Red flags Ignored":

"One of the nation’s biggest mortgage industry players repeatedly warned the Federal Reserve, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. and other bank regulators during the housing bubble that the U.S. faced an imminent housing crash....But bank regulators not only ignored the group's warnings, top Fed officials also went on the airwaves to say the economy was "building on a sturdy foundation" and a housing crash was "unlikely."


So, the Mortgage Insurance Companies of America also knew. And, here's a clip from the Washington Post by former New York governor Eliot Spitzer who accused Bush of being a ‘partner in crime’ in the subprime fiasco. Spitzer says that the OCC launched “an unprecedented assault on state legislatures, as well as on state attorneys general just to make sure the looting would continue without interruption. Here's an except from Spitzer's article:


"In 2003, during the height of the predatory lending crisis....the OCC promulgated new rules that prevented states from enforcing any of their own consumer protection laws against national banks. The federal government’s actions were so egregious and so unprecedented that all 50 state attorneys general, and all 50 state banking superintendents, actively fought the new rules. (Washington Post)


So, the Fed knew, the Treasury knew, the FBI knew, the OCC knew, the FDIC knew, Bush knew, the Mortgage Insurance Companies of America knew, Fitch ratings knew, all the states Attorneys General knew, and thousands, of traders, lenders, ratings agency executives, bankers, hedge fund managers, private equity bosses, regulators knew. Everyone knew, except the unlucky people who were victimized in the biggest looting operation of all time.

Once again, looking for conspiracy, just diverts attention from the nature of the crime itself. Here's a statement from former regulator and white collar criminologist William K. Black which helps to clarify the point:

"Fraudulent lenders produce exceptional short-term “profits” through a four-part strategy: extreme growth (Ponzi), lending to uncreditworthy borrowers, extreme leverage, and minimal loss reserves. These exceptional “profits” defeat regulatory restrictions and turn private market discipline perverse. The profits also allow the CEO to convert firm assets for personal benefit through seemingly normal compensation mechanisms. The short-term profits cause stock options to appreciate. Fraudulent CEOs following this strategy are guaranteed extraordinary income while minimizing risks of detection and prosecution." (William K. Black, "Epidemics of 'Control Fraud' Lead to Recurrent, Intensifying Bubbles and Crises", University of Missouri at Kansas City - School of Law)


Black's definition of "control fraud" comes very close to describing what really took place during the subprime mortgage frenzy. The investment banks and other financial institutions bulked up on garbage loans and complex securities backed by dodgy mortgages so they could increase leverage and rake off large bonuses for themselves. Clearly, they knew the underlying collateral was junk, just as they knew that eventually the market would crash and millions of people would suffer.

But, while its true that Greenspan and the Wall Street mandarins knew how the bubble-game was played; they had no intention of blowing up the whole system. They simply wanted to inflate the bubble, make their profits, and get out before the inevitable crash. But, then something went wrong. When Lehman collapsed, the entire financial system suffered a major heart attack. All of the so-called "experts" models turned out to be wrong.

Here's what happened: Before to the meltdown, the depository "regulated" banks got their funding through the repo market by exchanging collateral (mainly mortgage-backed securities) for short-term loans with the so-called "shadow banks" (investment banks, hedge funds, insurers) But after Lehman defaulted, the funding stream was severely impaired because the prices on mortgage-backed securities kept falling. When the bank-funding system went on the fritz, stocks went into a nosedive sending panicky investors fleeing for the exits. As unbelievable as it sounds, no one saw this coming.

The reason that no one anticipated a run on the shadow banking system, is because the basic architecture of the financial markets has changed dramatically in the last decade due to deregulation. The fundamental structure is different and the traditional stopgaps have been removed. That's why no one knew what to do during the panic. The general assumption was that there would be a one-to-one relationship between defaulting subprime mortgages and defaulting mortgage-backed securities (MBS). That turned out to be a grave miscalculation. The subprimes were only failing at roughly 8 percent rate when the whole secondary market collapsed. Former Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill explained it best using a clever analogy. He said, "It's like you have 8 bottles of water and just one of them has arsenic in it. It becomes impossible to sell any of the other bottles because no one knows which one contains the poison."

And that's exactly what happened. The market for structured debt crashed, stocks began to plummet, and the Fed had to step in to save the system. Unfortunately, that same deeply-flawed system is being rebuilt brick-by-brick without any substantive changes.. The Fed and Treasury support this effort, because--as agents of the banks--they are willing to sacrifice their own credibility to defend the primary profit-generating instruments of the industry leaders. (Goldman, JPM, etc) That means that Bernanke and Geithner will go to the mat to oppose any additional regulation on derivatives, securitization and off-balance sheet operations, the same lethal devices that triggered the financial crisis.

So, there was no conspiracy to blow up the financial system, but there is an implicit understanding that the Fed will serve the interests of Wall Street by facilitating asset bubbles through "accommodative" monetary policy and by opposing regulation. It's just "business as usual", but it's far more damaging than any conspiracy, because it ensures that the economy will continue to stagnate, that inequality will continue to grow, and that the gigantic upward transfer of wealth will continue without pause.
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florida08 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-04-10 10:45 AM
Response to Reply #19
31. very lucid article
and oddly enough had read or video watched the flag wavers that Whitney cites. Brooksley Borne was another who tried to stem the tide until they got rid of her. The Wall Street gang doesn't believe in fraud. Just doesn't exist. Frontline has a good piece called 'The Warning' which is at their website. Half of America only has 2% of the wealth..that's not a conspiracy or accident. Profits go one way..UP Thanks for posting.

15 Mind-Blowing Facts About Wealth And Inequality In America. Hasn't been this bad since the roaring 20's

http://www.businessinsider.com/15-charts-about-wealth-and-inequality-in-america-2010-4#the-gap-between-the-top-1-and-everyone-else-hasnt-been-this-bad-since-the-roaring-twenties-1

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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-04-10 07:46 AM
Response to Original message
20. Bolivia nationalises energy firms
http://english.aljazeera.net/news/americas/2010/05/201051153755686496.html



Bolivia has nationalised at least four power companies, expanding state control over the Latin American nation's key industries.

Evo Morales, the Bolivian president, signed a decree authorising the nationalisation at the offices of one of the companies in the city of Cochabamba on Saturday, hours after police had moved in to secure them.

"We are here to nationalise all the hydroelectric plants that were owned by the state before, to comply with the new constitution of the Bolivian state," Morales said.

"Basic services can not be a private business. We are recovering the energy, the light, for all Bolivians."

He also said that profits generated from the power firms will fund social programmes for "marginalised" indigenous communities in the country.

Shortly after taking office in 2006, Morales nationalised Bolivia's natural gas industry and has since taken control of several other utility companies.

Complete control

Morales said on Saturday that the state now controls 80 per cent of electricity generation in Bolivia and he was aiming for complete government control over the sector.

"This is essentially what Morales, the Bolivian president, was elected on," Alex Van Schaick, a Bolivia analyst, told Al Jazeera.

It was for the recuperation of basic public services putting oil, natural gas and other strategic public utilities back in the hand of the public sector."

The companies involved in the nationalisation process include Bolivia's largest power producer, Empresa Electrica Guaracachi SA, controlled by Rurelec PLC of Britain, as well as Empresa Corani SA, a hydroelectric company operated by France's GDF Suez...

CORRECT ME IF I'M WRONG, BUT I THINK THE FINAL STRAW WAS PRIVATIZING THE WATER SUPPLY, WHICH BROUGHT MORALES SUPPORTERS TO POWER...
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Festivito Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-04-10 07:52 AM
Response to Original message
21. Debt: 04/30/2010 12,948,738,915,856.86 (UP 95,638,788,968.42) (Fri)
(Up big. End of month. The largest rise since Obama took office, however there was a big drop yesterday and probably there will be a big drop for the first day in May. Good day.)

(Debt under Obama seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat.)
= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 8,434,434,625,613.16 + 4,514,304,290,243.70
UP 98,427,087,705.17 + DOWN 2,788,298,736.75

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 309-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.23 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.7, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 13 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 309,174,639 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 04/09/2010 15:49 -> 309,034,742
Currently, each of these Americans owe $41,881.63.
A family of three owes $125,644.9. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 24 reports in the last 30 to 31 days.
The average for the last 24 reports is 11,007,000,794.83.
The average for the last 30 days would be 8,805,600,635.87.
The average for the last 31 days would be 8,521,549,002.45.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 146 reports in 212 days of FY2010 averaging 7.12B$ per report, 4.90B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 996 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 14.3 and 21.4T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
04/30/2010 12,948,738,915,856.86 BHO (UP 2,321,861,866,943.78 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +1,038,909,912,345.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof10 +1,788,689,235,877.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
04/12/2010 -000,193,173,374.30 --- Mon
04/13/2010 -000,086,542,536.22 ----
04/14/2010 +000,857,281,039.39 ------------********
04/15/2010 +039,328,943,525.65 ------------**********
04/16/2010 -000,121,400,113.90 ---
04/19/2010 -017,215,897,730.16 - Mon
04/20/2010 +000,349,194,756.21 ------------********
04/21/2010 +000,180,306,016.37 ------------********
04/22/2010 -015,686,359,446.12 -
04/23/2010 -000,156,047,055.50 ---
04/26/2010 +000,019,005,411.26 ------------******* Mon
04/27/2010 +000,734,843,937.10 ------------********
04/28/2010 -000,020,446,125.69 ----
04/29/2010 -019,519,315,418.04 -
04/30/2010 +098,427,087,705.17 ------------**********

86,897,480,591.22 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4365629&mesg_id=4365810
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Festivito Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-04-10 05:01 PM
Response to Reply #21
45. Debt: 05/03/2010 12,927,020,546,327.13 (DOWN 21,718,369,529.73) (Mon)
(Down a bit after being up big at end of month. Good day.)

(Debt under Obama seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat.)
= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 8,430,105,244,349.23 + 4,496,915,301,977.90
DOWN 4,329,381,263.93 + DOWN 17,388,988,265.80

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 309-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.23 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.7, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 13 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 309,194,577 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 04/09/2010 15:49 -> 309,034,742
Currently, each of these Americans owe $41,808.69.
A family of three owes $125,426.07. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 22 reports in the last 30 to 31 days.
The average for the last 22 reports is 7,466,970,309.56.
The average for the last 30 days would be 5,475,778,227.01.
The average for the last 31 days would be 5,299,140,219.69.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 147 reports in 215 days of FY2010 averaging 6.92B$ per report, 4.73B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 993 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 14.3 and 18.2T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
05/03/2010 12,927,020,546,327.13 BHO (UP 2,300,143,497,414.05 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +1,017,191,542,815.40 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof10 +1,726,860,061,058.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
04/13/2010 -000,086,542,536.22 ----
04/14/2010 +000,857,281,039.39 ------------********
04/15/2010 +039,328,943,525.65 ------------**********
04/16/2010 -000,121,400,113.90 ---
04/19/2010 -017,215,897,730.16 - Mon
04/20/2010 +000,349,194,756.21 ------------********
04/21/2010 +000,180,306,016.37 ------------********
04/22/2010 -015,686,359,446.12 -
04/23/2010 -000,156,047,055.50 ---
04/26/2010 +000,019,005,411.26 ------------******* Mon
04/27/2010 +000,734,843,937.10 ------------********
04/28/2010 -000,020,446,125.69 ----
04/29/2010 -019,519,315,418.04 -
04/30/2010 +098,427,087,705.17 ------------**********
05/03/2010 -004,329,381,263.93 -- Mon

82,761,272,701.59 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4367069&mesg_id=4367202
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bread_and_roses Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-04-10 08:08 AM
Response to Original message
22. yesterday, i watched the headlines reading like something out of "2012" - and Market goes up
Boston under boil-water order, Nashville flooding, manholes exploding in Manhattan, Ireland under a volcanic ash cloud, and the very ocean at risk because we've punctured the very bowells of the earth in our endless drive for more more more... and the market goes up?

There is no creature born of Mother Earth that is vile enough to describe you, you revolting, vampire "Captains" of Industry and Finance - not slime nor fungi nor leech nor squid nor even diseased bacteria nor mutated virus nor cancerous cell. All at least have some place in nature.

Party hearty, you flesh-eating vampire zombie ghouls.

FRSP
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Dr.Phool Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-04-10 08:45 AM
Response to Reply #22
23. And now I drag my hung over butt out of bed, and the first thing I see is
Someone placed a huge turd in the punch bowl at the opening. Down 152 points.

What happened while I was eating the last clams in the Gulf last night?
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DemReadingDU Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-04-10 08:45 AM
Response to Original message
24. Goodhart Says Greek Deal May Collapse as Crisis Tests Euro

5/4/10 Goodhart Says Greek Deal May Collapse as Crisis Tests Euro

Greece’s bailout “might collapse” and the nation’s debt crisis makes it “hard to see” how the euro will survive in its current form, former Bank of England policy maker Charles Goodhart said.

“If this financing deal should collapse, and it might for one reason or another, then there would be a question of what the Greeks could possibly do,” Goodhart said in an interview with Bloomberg Television in London today. “Default would be totally disastrous for them and leaving the euro would equally be disastrous.”

Euro-region ministers on May 2 agreed to a 110 billion-euro ($145 billion) bailout with the International Monetary Fund to prevent a Greek default, after investor concern sparked a rout in Portuguese and Spanish bonds last week and sent stock markets tumbling. The Greek crisis shows the need for more integration within the euro as a common currency, Goodhart said.

“It’s very hard to see how this is going survive this particular test,” he said. “The euro system has either got to have much more integration or parts of it will fall by the wayside.”

Standard & Poor’s last week cut Greece’s credit rating to the junk level of BB+, lowered Spain’s grade by one level to AA and downgraded Portugal by two steps to A-. Greece has now agreed to budget-cutting measures worth 13 percent of gross domestic product.

‘Appalling Deflation’

“If the current bailout is put in place, it will be enough to meet their immediate financing problems not only this year but for the next year or two,” Goodhart said. “The problem is that it doesn’t meet their adjustment problems. It doesn’t deal with the problem the Greeks, in part from having too large a deficit and too large a debt ratio, are very uncompetitive and if they actually cut back the deficit as fast as is being required they’re just going to go into appalling deflation.”

Greek 10-year bonds yielded 8.7 percent, about 566 basis points more than German bunds, as of 11:32 a.m. in London. That spread is down from as high as 800 basis points last week, the biggest gap since the euro’s introduction 11 years ago.

Should the deal fail, Greece “might do a kind of dual currency in which they use their scarce euros to meet their external commitments and in the meantime use an internal IOU, rather as Californian and some of the Argentinian states did, in order to meet their internal commitments” Goodhart said. “It would be a dual currency and the internal currency would fluctuate compared to the euro.”

Such an exercise would be “very messy,’ he added.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aX9pEOY09jQQ&pos=6


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FarCenter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-04-10 09:33 AM
Response to Reply #24
25. Why couldn't the Greek government simply default?
They could just reschedule the maturities of their bonds and continue to pay interest at the current rates. They are, after all, a sovereign.

Of course, they would then have to pay current government expenses out of current revenues. But that is what it will take to recover anyway.
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DemReadingDU Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-04-10 09:56 AM
Response to Reply #25
26. Greek default could trigger default in the PIIGS

Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece, Spain



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FarCenter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-04-10 10:32 AM
Response to Reply #26
30. They may have to default sooneer or later anyway.
The problem is that they are borrowers who have been borrowing short and now cannot roll over their debt at the same low interest rates as previously, i.e. they have failed to match the maturities of their debt with the future incomes to pay the debt off.

Consequently, they have a dilemma, either:
1. default on the debt and use current revenues to pay current obligations, or
2. roll the debt over at high interest rates that will make it even more difficult to repay the debt in the future.

I think that doing 2 simply postpones the crisis and makes it worse in the long run. So default now.
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-04-10 10:54 AM
Response to Reply #25
33. Hoping for a Miracle
Apart from me, the Greek gods are dead.
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Robbien Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-04-10 01:33 PM
Response to Reply #25
40. CNBC talking heads this morning were pushing hard for the Greek bailout

Germany should not dilly dally and vote YES immediately they said. If not, DISASTER.

I guess some rich man may get hurt. Got to get the Euro taxpayers to pony up before that happens.

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FarCenter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-04-10 03:38 PM
Response to Reply #40
42. I wonder if Greece could avoid defaulting by passing a 100% property tax on Greek bonds?
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Robbien Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-04-10 04:30 PM
Response to Reply #42
44. Isn't that the same result as a default?
If Greece defaults the bondholders are left holding worthless bonds.

A 100% tax on bonds means bondholders are left holding worthless bonds.

Right?
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FarCenter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-04-10 06:33 PM
Response to Reply #44
46. I don't think it is the same. It might not trigger the default clause of CDSs?
Legally, it wouldn't be the same thing.

Although it would operationally be equivalent.
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bread_and_roses Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-04-10 10:20 AM
Response to Reply #24
28. and everywhere from Greece to Groton (NY) workers are expected to bear the "pain" of what the
Markets have wrought. At least the Greek workers have the guts to get out in the streets ... here, we just cringe under the lash.
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florida08 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-04-10 10:09 AM
Response to Original message
27. great work ozy
Not sure how you do it everyday. At 11 am the Dow is down over 200 but good news BP is UP?
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-04-10 10:54 AM
Response to Original message
32. 10,000 Here We Come!
By October, I think. And then...the deluge.
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Ghost Dog Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-04-10 01:30 PM
Response to Reply #32
39. After you...
:smoke:
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Roland99 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-04-10 11:10 AM
Response to Original message
34. 12:09pm - Holy Crap! What the.....
Dow 10,919 -232 -2.08%
Nasdaq 2,421 -78 -3.11%
S&P 500 1,174 -28 -2.35%
GlobalDow 1,944 -50 -2.52%
Gold 1,176 -8 -0.63%
Oil 83.38 -2.81 -3.26%
Euro /$1US 1.3037 -0.0150
$1US / Yen 94.5000 -0.0800
Pound / $1US 1.5134 -0.0102

10-yr T-bond 3.63 -0.06


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TalkingDog Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-04-10 12:20 PM
Response to Reply #34
36. Dude...that's what I said.

I mean, I expect yesterday's "gains" to retreat, but daaaammmm...
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CountAllVotes Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-04-10 11:12 AM
Response to Original message
35. Major World Indices & Futures (links) ...
:hi:

I've been meaning to come here and post these two Yahoo! links - one is for Major World Indices and the other is for Futures.

Major World Indices: http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=europe (you can change from Europe to Asia, etc.)

Futures: http://finance.yahoo.com/futures

I hope these are useful. :)

:kick:





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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-04-10 01:03 PM
Response to Reply #35
37. Thanks! It's All Grist for the Mill
We are the nut-gathering squirrels here. Or maybe we are the nuts. Not clear on that....
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Roland99 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-04-10 01:27 PM
Response to Original message
38. 2:25pm - Still falling
Dow 10,904 -248 -2.22%
Nasdaq 2,422 -76 -3.06%
S&P 500 1,173 -29 -2.44%
GlobalDow 1,942 -52 -2.61%
Gold 1,172 -11 -0.92%
Oil 83.08 -3.11 -3.61%


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Tansy_Gold Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-04-10 02:11 PM
Response to Reply #38
41. I'm waiting. . . .
Edited on Tue May-04-10 02:12 PM by Tansy_Gold


TG
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Roland99 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-04-10 04:13 PM
Response to Reply #41
43. hehe
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-04-10 06:37 PM
Response to Reply #41
47. Love it!
How did you like New York City?

(That is you, isn't it?) :hi:
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Tansy_Gold Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-04-10 09:44 PM
Response to Reply #47
48. I hate New York.
Nah, I got the pic off the intertubesnet. But it's one of my faves and I've been waiting for just the right opportunity to use it.

I know, I know, I know, there are gonna be a lot of "little people" hurt when the market crashes, but it's like the boycott of Arizona -- us little people are gonna get hurt no matter what, so why not make some of the big folks hurt A WHOLE LOT and then maybe we can fix this a whole lot better. 'Cause ain't nothin' gonna get fixed until it gets good an' broke first.



Tansy Gold, lapsing into the vernacular once again. . . .
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-04-10 09:56 PM
Response to Reply #48
49. Ain't nothin' wrong wit that!
Edited on Tue May-04-10 09:58 PM by Demeter
I do it all the time.

Now, I love New York City. It's the people I find hard to stand.

You can take the girl out of the big city, but it's hard to get the city out of the girl.
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Tansy_Gold Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-04-10 10:20 PM
Response to Reply #49
50. With the except of one editor and one waiter, I found New Yorkers
every bit as nice as folks in Chicago, the other big (northern) city with which I have some experience.

(Phoenix, as a "big city," doesn't count regardless of size, for a variety of reasons. Mostly because most of the people here aren't from here.)

I've never ever ever had a waiter as rude and assholey as the guy at Smith & Weston (??) in about 1994. When he told me to drink the water with THINGS floating in it because it was good protein and REFUSED to bring me another without floaties, I came thiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiis close to throwing it in his face.

I refuse to even speak about the editor, except to say I could never forgive her for spilling marinara on my brand new turquoise silk blouse and then laughing about it.


Tansy Gold, who never forgets and NEVER EVER EVER forgives.


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