Guest Column: Iraq’s Nightmare Scenario
By Carlton Meyer
A careful reader of the limited news coming out of Iraq will discover the U.S. military situation is perilous and a few more bad moves could send the U.S. Army and Marines retreating back to Kuwait in the same manner they fled southward 54 years ago in Korea.
That was when a million Chinese foot soldiers suddenly appeared and attacked as overextended U.S. forces approached the Chinese border. American firepower, airpower, and technology was unable to compensate for the confusion and lack of supplies for American ground troops.
The main problem in Iraq today is the massive logistics effort required to sustain U.S. forces at over a hundred dispersed camps. Over 95 percent of supplies arrive by ship, and the closest major seaport is in Kuwait. This means everything must be hauled hundreds of miles over war torn roads among hostile natives. This is far more difficult than Vietnam, which had a long coastline where supplies could be dropped off.
A recent article by Tom Ricks of the Washington Post noted that most convoys are attacked, and that soldiers must stop to check each bridge for explosives because there is not enough manpower to guard them. Other reporters tell of recently destroyed bridges forcing convoys to travel on secondary roads that double their travel time. In addition, many civilian truck drivers have refused to drive and many foreign logistics contractors have left Iraq.
Many reports tell of ammunition rationing. The U.S. military was not expecting a prolonged conflict, and drawing and transporting dangerous ammo from limited worldwide stockpiles is a challenge. Senior Army officials told the House Armed Services Committee last month that nearly all the wartime stockpiles in Southwest Asia and on the island of Diego Garcia have been issued, as well as equipment stashed in Europe – a total of 10,000 tanks, personnel carriers, trucks, and other vehicles. Only the Army’s equipment for one brigade in Korea and the Marines’ brigade stock in Guam remain untouched.
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