Bush's Poll Numbers Hitting the Danger Zone

Bush's Poll Numbers Hitting the Danger Zone

Wed May 12, 2004 02:00 PM ET

By John Whitesides, Political Correspondent

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - While President Bush remains essentially even
with Democratic challenger John Kerry in new opinion polls, voters are slowly
sinking into the kind of pessimistic funk that doomed other presidents --
including Bush's father.

Several recent polls show Bush's approval ratings slipping below 50 percent
amid growing doubts among voters about his handling of the war in Iraq and
of the economy.

Growing majorities believe the country is headed in the wrong direction, a
traditional early indicator of the electorate's mood and a clear warning sign
for an incumbent trying to persuade the public to rehire him four more years.

"He is in dangerous territory now," pollster John Zogby said of Bush, although
Democratic challenger John Kerry so far has failed to take much advantage
of Bush's slump six months before the November election.


more
http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=politicsNews&storyID=5122245

Is anyone else getting that sick feeling in your stomach because you know something big (and horrible) is going to happen? :scared:

will not let go of absolute power easily

:evilfrown:

Wait for it.

He mentioned that there was little hope for Dumbyass unless:
A) Kerry does something really incompetent and blows it for himself.
or
B) There's another terrorist attack similar to 9/11

Pretty damned scary... :scared:

just waiting for the next "surprise terrorist attack". The worse things get for Chimpy, the more likely it will be to happen.

alll things considered...

Bush's polls go up...Bad news...they go down..Bad news..

Sounds like the first chance of safety this nation has had in nearly four years.

there's always a lag between an incumbent's ratings dropping and those voters switching allegiance to the challenger. That's what's happening. We're in that in-between period.

"This could be a very unusual election from a public opinion perspective," Bowman said. "Some of the things we think we know may not turn out to be true."

Uh huh. IOW, be prepared for Bush to be behind in every poll and yet somehow STILL pull off a win.

I don't mind admitting I'm a little nervous about the "John Kerry so far has failed to take much advantage" part. Muhammad Ali called it "rope a dope," but it's clear now that the dope is pretty winded. It's about this time that Ali would come out swinging.

That's money, or lack thereof, or perhaps the finishing touches of the "coming out swinging" part are still being worked out. I hope that's it.

The other reason Bush's numbers aren't in the low 30's is DENIAL, plain and simple. Admitting one was wrong about something is about the hardest thing in the world to do for a lot of people, even if the wrongness is plainly obvious. Still, one has to wonder why it's taken this long for Bush to hit the mid-40's. There comes a time when flashy photo-ops and such just don't cut it anymore.

I'd rather see junior is worse shape than he's in now, than see Kerry is in terrific shape.

I fully expect his numbers to pick up over the summer, particularly after the convention (besides the bounce, I mean); and particularly in the fall. Why the faith? a) it's his capaigning style to save the best for late and b) as pointed out over and over, when your opponent is committing suicide, you don't interfere. I feel cautiously optimistic at this point. It'd be more so if I weren't concerned about the * administration's amply demonstrated capacity for dirty pool. All things being equal--which they aren't, but even so--this is Kerry's election to lose. Or, well, win.

He cannot afford to mince and splice and try to be all things to all people, or he's just going to come across as yet another inside-the- beltway waffler. He needs to be more aggressive and exploit the growing dissatisfaction with Our Leader by painting a clearly recognizable alternative to the shrub, by letting people know that there is a better way to do this, that we could have avoided this sorry pass. Voters like "feel good" messages, it's why the repukes have managed to preserve their legitimacy even in the face of a great many highly unpopular policies. Not even repukes though can feel good about torturing innocent civilians to death and it was their policies which directly led to this eventuality - that's a weakness. If Kerry's got a brain in his head, he'll reignite that "feel good" sense amongst demoralized Americans by laying the blame for the abuse scandal squarely where it belongs - on the ill-considered policies of a reckless, bloodthirsty, extremist administration.

...as in the past, the focus at this stage is on the man in the White House — and given the events in Iraq, it is unlikely to come off him any time soon. Mr. Kerry's lack of progress should not, for now, be cause for concern to Democrats. Public opinion about Mr. Bush is the far more important barometer — and if it remains low, Mr. Kerry will have a chance to make his case.
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There's nothing that the Bush regime would like to do more right now than "sic" the media on Kerry now for "politicizing the war" by criticizing Georgie, or to declare his candidacy moot because he said something "supportive." But Kerry's been smart enough to keep his nose to the grass roots grindstone and not take the bait. Yes, he spoke out when his spouse was criticized, but who wouldn't? Allowing Georgie the full glare of the worldwide media spotlight as he sinks deeper into miserable failure is saving Kerry a lot of effort and campaign money!

:headbang:
rocknation

Kerry is running a very thoughtful and intelligent campaign. He's giving the other side little to no ammo to effectively use against him.

Kerry's Few Words on Iraq Are Too Many for G.O.P.

(Kerry)...renewed a longstanding call for Defense Secretary Defense Donald H. Rumsfeld's resignation, said higher-ups must be held accountable for the abuse of Iraqi prisoners and condemned the beheading of an American civilian. Republicans have seized on every scrap, accusing him of politicizing the war...

:headbang:
rocknation

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story2&u=/nm/20040512/pl_nm/campaign_polls_dc

same story, but you can vote on it at the bottom.

and that editorial Beetwasher linked above is GREAT news!

Bush's Poll Numbers Reflect One Term President

Wed May 12, 2004 02:00 PM ET

By John Whitesides (Edited by LeftHander DU member)

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - While President Bush remains essentially even
with Democratic challenger John Kerry in new opinion polls, voters are slowly
waking up the the truth that doomed other failed presidents --
including Bush's father.

Several recent polls show Bush's approval ratings slipping below 50 percent
amid growing realization among voters about his poor handling of the war in Iraq and
of the economy.

Growing majorities believe the country is headed in the wrong direction, a
traditional early indicator of the electorate's mood and a clear warning sign
for an incumbent trying to persuade the public to rehire him four more years.

"He is in dangerous territory now," pollster John Zogby said of Bush, although
Democratic challenger John Kerry so far has declined to ad insult to injury to take much advantage
of Bush's slump six months before the November election.

In addition to the Kohut op-ed cited above, note also this:

The main number people keep referring to when they say it's "neck and neck" is the "likely voters" number. "Likely voters" are defined as those who voted in the 2000 election. But all indications are that that number is not a good predicter now, because Dems are far more energized against Bush and primaries have shown them voting in much higher numbers. IOW, the "registered voters" results may be more predictive, and Kerry scores higher in those. He also scores higher in the "voting-age adults" category--if people are really disgusted by Bush (and JK gives them something positive and trustworthy to vote for)--then those "likely voter"-based analyses may be very misleading.

If you haven't read THIS yet, you should:

A Kerry Landslide? Why the next election won't be close.

It could brighten up your day a bit.

As early as January. And I, too, remember pondering this right here in early March (Kerry by much the same margin as Poppy over Dukakis: 56%-44%). It COULD happen, if Kerry plays his cards right (choices for VP and Cabinet). Let's all hope--and pray if you do that--that it does!:D

B-)

political genius is overrated. And he just got lucky in 2000 that the purloined debate video wasn't traced back to him. I will always believe that his fingerprints were all over that little caper.

Did everyone know that his CIA codename was Turd Blossom? I just found that out yesterday.

.

I misread. It's still funny as hell.

very well educated and whom I respect dearly..believes that the NeoCons will do whatever they have to to win this election..and the American people are naive enough to go along. Terrorist attack, martial law, suspension of elections, etc. I'm not so sure of this idea, but the fact that this country is to the point that educated people have this on their minds says a lot about where this country is headed.

I believe it will come down to voter fraud through electronic voting machines. Bush isn't going to go down easily.. these creeps have too much to lose.

The fact that the average American reads at the 8th grade level, and Bush at a 6th grade level gives Americans a sense of being smarter than the Pres and a feeling of being able to relate. Truth is, the consciousness of the average American just hasn't expanded to a point that they can grasp the truth of whats happening here. 74% of Americans still believe Saddam was involved with 9-11...that speaks volumes.

Ones who have never voted before are registering, for the fall elections.

Didn't matter.

but it remains to be seen how easy it will be for Kerry.

Kerry in a romp.

All we have to do is make sure that we have enough of a margin so they cannot not openly steal the election. If that dipshit Nader would just blow away, it would make it much more obvious that Kerry is leading.

Everything he touches turns to crap.

Which country? The United States or Iraq?

Both aren't doing very well right now...

the side of Air Force One, he'll be ready to get back in his flight suit and go supersonic again.

/apologies to everyone

Two observations:

1) If the mainstream media ever told the plain truth about this President, it would look like one of those scenes from an old horror movie where the villagers surround the creepy mansion with torches and pitchforks.

2) This article, while good news, is still whoring for the administration. Bush shows a few points erosion in his approval rating, but the article cites Kerry's "failure" to take advantage. Yet later in the article it acknowledges that Kerry has gained "a few points" in head-to-head polling.

What did they expect? Bush goes down a few points and Kerry goes up a few points -- that's exactly what should have occurred -- yet it becomes Kerry's "failure" to capitalize on Bush's trouble.

There's no failure here. Support is slowly draining from the Bush Administration and slowly shifting to Kerry.