Overall CPI below forecast

Consumer price index up 0.2% in April, rather than 0.3% forecast; but core tops estimates

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Overall retail prices in April rose less than Wall Street expectations, although prices excluding food and energy were up a bit more than expected, in the wake of a report released Friday.

The consumer price index, a broad measure of retail prices, increased only 0.2 percent, compared with a 0.5 percent rise in March. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com forecast a 0.3 percent rise.

The so-called "core" CPI, which excludes often volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.3 percent. Economists forecast that would be up 0.2 percent after a 0.4 percent rise in March.

http://money.cnn.com/2004/05/14/news/economy/cpi/index.htm

...Inflation isn't that bad?

:eyes:

"I thought 'core' inflation was all we were supposed to look at?"

This month is actually backwards (and I can't understand why). The number including food and energy is lower than the "core" number.

is supposed to explain it. I've never seen a pricetag on food get changed except to increase, what does this mean? More double-coupon sales or something?

but I can't see how energy costs wouldn't more than make up for a 1.4 pct drop in food prices. Oil seems to be constantly rising and natural gas has been even worse.

snip Food prices, which posted a sharp 1.3 percent increase on the April producer price index, a measure of wholesale prices, were up only 0.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis on the CPI. snip

Milk is thru the roof in AZ and gas is at $2.16 (a 0.17 jump in a week)

I didn't see that.

The way I read it, things were pretty low across the board, but a housing jump caused the "core" to be higher than expected.

people feel it in their pocket books, and even though they can say retail prices did not increase that much people know the truth

I was talking with one of my fellow karate moms last night. She's on a more-or-less fixed income. She's going to Costco now and buying in bulk to freeze because prices at her regular grocery store have gone sky-high. She was complaining about it, a LOT. We all figure that's only the beginning, because - hey, if your food is trucked in, well, gas prices have been zooming upwards, too.

beyond credibility, don't they think the People shop? Everything is going up BIG except our paychecks.

if you measure to one decimal place --- 0.2 vs 0.3
then a difference of one (0.1) is meaningless.
is it 0.16 rounded to 0.2 vs 0.34 rounded to 0.3? (0.18)
or is it 0.24 rounded to 0.2 vs 0.26 rounded to 0.3? (0.02)

Kind of like a poll -- Polly Tishan Shows STRONG Lead 48 vs 45 (small print - 4% margin of error)

(or was it health costs in general) were deweighted? Those costs seem to keep increasing at a rapid pace as well. Also thought that education costs (eg college tuition) were deweighted and "entertainment" costs (eg costs of movies) were increased in weight?

Would love to read the rationales for these moves. Seems on the surface to be a whole set of funky decisions...

Seems fair - since Bush we have less home and less health - unless you are rich.

gas is over $2, milk, cheese, meat, restaurant prices are all up 10,20,30%, housing prices are scorching.
They must dump consumer items like TVs and VCRs in with this calculation which no longer follow historical pricing norms. month to month price drops on these items have been huge, mix this with food prices and the overall CPI looks flat. This is fucked up

Milk is up almost $.50 a gallon. Even electronics prices have remained stable and not dropped due to the dollar's drop in value.

BTW - you should all try Aldi out. I was on public aid while attending grad school and had to shop there to survive, and returned when I had to save my home. You can beat un-concentrated OJ for $1.69 a half-gallon all the time.

Recently, they've come out with a lot of new, pretty decent products - even healthy stuff.

Actually, once I started shopping there regularly I was surprised by the generally high quality of the food. My neighbor works in a cold storage warehouse and he reports that most of the Aldi's frozen food comes from the same plants as the Wegman's house brand, just different packaging (and 1/2 the cost).

I don't buy meat or veggies there (local farmers market is cheaper and fresher), but for everything else the prices are absolutely unbeatable.

Their 'Fit & active' stuffed sandwich pockets are awesome ($1.69 for package of 2). My husband takes one for lunch everyday.

But even still, prices are going up noticeably, esp. milk, butter and breakfast cereal...but lots of 10-cent increases throughout the store.

My weekly food bill at Aldi's was pretty consistently $65 for a family of 4...in the past three or four weeks, it's been topping $80, and I'm not buying anything unusual. Who is kidding who here? Anyone who has to eat knows the truth.

(OT: Aldi's also pays its people semi-decently. Around here (Eastern PA), cashiers start at $10/hr. Though they do work HARD...seldom more than 2 cashiers for a whole store most days.)

And it is-then none of the products we get from China-and one would assume other 'cheap labor' countries-will go up in price, no matter WHERE the dollar is at in true strength. Mixed into the CPI, and especially if we don't include food and fuel, presto, low inflation! Then, if we are allowed to lie about increases in housing-building materials prices are in orbit-and healthcare, which they are, the picture becomes even rosier.

Government numbers are used to form opinions and manipulate perceptions, not to relay any accurate picture of the economy's state to the public. They do the same thing with opinion polls...nobody wants to be on the losing team...so we are more likely to vote for who we are told is 'ahead'...creating a self-fulfilling prophecy.

The problem is, as has been pointed out by several posters on this board, common sense eventually has to kick in. We all KNOW there is enormous inflationary pressure. We get the message every time we drive to the store. We don't buy vcr's, tv's and clothing every week!

The things we DO buy every week are going through the roof, and everybody knows it. Slick words and manipulated numbers can only impact on behavior to a limited degree. Eventually, reality will set in, and that is when the real crash will come...when people finally lose faith in the government, and believe nothing they say.

I don't think that day is very far off.

The Associated Press
Updated: 1:28 p.m. ET May  14, 2004

WASHINGTON - Consumer prices rose by a modest 0.2 percent in April — settling down a bit from a large jump the previous month. Still, the government’s latest report on the nation’s pricing climate suggested that inflation is coming out of hibernation.


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The advance in the Consumer Price Index, the government’s most closely watch inflation barometer, followed a sizable 0.5 percent increase in March, the Labor Department reported Friday.

Excluding energy and food prices, the “core” rate of inflation rose by 0.3 percent in April, on top of a 0.4 percent rise the month before. This indicated that while inflation is still considered low, it is clearly awakening from a long slumber.

http://msnbc.msn.com/id/4978465/

They said that house prices increased only 2.2% last year and that healthcare costs only rose slightly over 5%. Those are WAY understated.