STOCK MARKET WATCH, Wednesday 19 May

charts, they all seemed to just kiss the 200 day moving average yesterday. Perhaps todays goal is the 50 day? Nah, I'm sure it's pure coincidence.

Great toon again today Ozy!

I won't be around most of the day today, might be able to check in after the lunch hour. Hope you all have a great day. :hi:

FRAUD AND DECEPTION IS THE ORDER OF THE DAY!

I have always believed that the stock market is the heart of the capitalist system. The ability to raise capital by young companies thru the efficiency of the financial markets has enabled our country to achieve wealth unmatched by any other country in the post-Industrial Age. Unfortunately over the past decade, and especially over the past five years, the financial markets have been transformed into a huge casino—and this is an understatement. In a recent email to me, Mr. Martin Goldberg, put it in much more blatant terms:

"...with the stock market appearing like brothel with all the late trading, insider trading, program trading, accounting shenanigans, earnings management, insider selling, and media spin, etc., who in their right mind can hold Exxon Mobil (in a college savings account yet) when it goes to $36?"

"Brothel?" That's a pretty strong word. Yet, it totally encapsulates the disgust of many professionals when it comes to the un-ending "late trading, insider trading, program trading, accounting shenanigans, earnings management, insider selling, and media spin" that seem to be the order of the day. A good example—in my humble view—is what took place on Friday, May 7, 2004. As many may recall, on that day the bond market plunged and so did many stocks at the NYSE. In fact, that day the NYSE experienced one of the worst breadth ratios ever, 12:1! On that day 256 issues advanced, while 3152 declined and the NYSE fell 119 points. Interestingly, NASDAQ and most notably the NDX held rather well. The NDX fell just 12.82 points, while the shameless talking heads at CNBC marveled throughout the entire day at the "strength" and "resilience" exhibited by tech, which they immediately interpreted to be a "good thing" for the market!

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_04/jmackenzie051804.html

Myron S. Scholes of Long Term Capital Management, won one-half the 1997 Nobel Peace Prize in Economic Sciences "for a new method to determine the value of derivatives."

In September of 1998 LTCM ran into a glitch as their Laureate's method began to run amok. At the beginning of 1998, LTCM held capital of $4.8 billion, a portfolio of in excess of $200 billion (credit facilities) and derivatives with a notional value (how much capital a given derivative effectively controls) of $1.25 trillion.

The investors who dared to ask questions were told to "take their money somewhere else".

On September 23, 1998 William J. McDonough, president of the New York Federal Reserve Bank enlisted LTCM's counter parties to bail out the fund which was for all intents and purposes bankrupt. The counter parties provided $3.6 billion in return for a 90% share in the fund and the promise a supervisory board would be established.

Simply put, a Nobel Laureate's "derivative model" wrought disaster, only to be bailed out by the very counter parties it had "insured" against risk.

more...

I'm going to be scarce today. Lots of stuff to do away from home. I'll check back in after 1pm.

Have a great day at the Casino!



Ozy :hi:

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 90.78 Change -0.47 (-0.52%)

http://www.fxstreet.com/nou/noticies/afx/noticia.asp?pv_noticia=200405190626MKTNEWS_MAINWIRE_659B_7547

Yen Higher Against Dollar, Euro; Euro-dlr In Range

LONDON, May 19 (MktNews) - The yen rose further against the dollar
and euro in European morning trade Wednesday as hedge funds showed
increased interest in investing in Japan and exporters hedged exposure
in dollar-yen. Meanwhile, euro-dollar settled into a broad range around
$1.20.

<snip>

ON THE US AGENDA:

US MBA Mortgage Application Index for the May 14 week at 1100GMT.

US speakers: At 1230GMT with Fed Governor Susan Schmidt Bies
speaking about corporate governance at the Institute of Internal
Auditors conference.

At 1745GMT, Fed Governor Edward Gramlich speaks about US government sponsored enterprises in Washington. At 1830GMT, Treasury Secretary John Snow is due to testify to the Senate Committee on Aging about health savings accounts. He also speaks at a Competitive Enterprise Institute dinner at 2315GMT.

...more...

kick

I believe the CNN folk said this morning that "people are just in a buying mood" :eyes:
Dow 10,081.22 +112.71 (+1.13%)
Nasdaq 1,933.18 +35.36 (+1.86%)
S&P 500 1,104.78 +13.29 (+1.22%)
10-Yr Bond 4.786% +0.050

Sometimes I wish I had cable, it seems I miss out on a lot!

people - there's a war going on. :eyes:

http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml?type=bondsNews&storyID=5191396

NEW YORK, May 19 (Reuters) - New U.S. mortgage applications fell sharply last week, despite mortgage rates falling for the first time since early March, an industry trade group said on Wednesday.

The Mortgage Bankers Association said its seasonally adjusted market index, a measure of weekly mortgage activity, declined for the week ending May 14 by 11.9 percent to 654.1 from the previous week's 742.2. This was the lowest level since 599.9 touched in the first week of January

Average 30-year mortgage rates, excluding fees, fell by 11 basis points to 6.21 percent. Last week's average 30-year rates were up 104 basis points from the comparable week a year ago.

Mortgage rates have trended higher since mid-March with rising Treasury yields as data suggested faster U.S. economic growth and growing inflationary pressure. Higher mortgage rates have curtailed refinancing activities, but home sales and construction have yet to show signs of dropping off.

After a protracted rise, Treasury yields fell late last week on a wave of bargain-hunting.

The Washington trade group's purchase index, a gauge of new loan requests for home purchases fell by 8.1 percent to 454.2 after hitting its second highest ever level at 494.3 the previous week. Its all-time high was 501.6 reported for the Jan. 16 week.

...more...

Does this mean that AT&T shareholders will now own Cingular stock, if not, what happens to those with AT&T stock?

Thanks for the input. I love this thread, I check it several times a day. Thanks for all the good work!



AT&T Wireless shareholders approve Cingular buyout

Wednesday, May 19, 2004


05-19) 07:28 PDT ATLANTA (AP) --

Shareholders of AT&T Wireless Services Inc. have approved Cingular Wireless LLC's $41 billion offer to buy the Redmond, Wash.-based company.

The announcement came at AT&T Wireless' annual shareholder meeting Wednesday in Wilmington, Del.

The all-cash deal reached in February calls for Cingular to pay AT&T Wireless $15 a share. The companies hope to complete the deal by the end of the year. It also is subject to regulatory approval.

The deal would make Cingular the nation's largest cell phone provider with 46 million customers

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/news/archive/2004/05/19/financial1028EDT0060.DTL&type=business

market - could never figure out which type of news items make things jittery. US warplanes killing 20+ at a wedding party... during a period when things are deteriorating in Iraq... will it have no effect, minimal effect?

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BA613E4E2-E49C-4737-8FAC-8589CE46015C%7D&siteid=google&dist=google

SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- Crude-oil prices climbed back above $41 and gasoline futures rose as much as 3 percent Wednesday, with modest changes in U.S. crude supplies and small increases in motor fuel stocks deemed inadequate to meet demand.

The data "will keep prices above the $40 level until we see signs that OPEC is actually pumping oil and not words," said John Person, editor of The Bottom Line newsletter.

With the summer driving season looming, crude for June delivery rose 63 cents to trade at $41.17 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract fell more than 2 percent Tuesday after climbing to uncharted territory in the prior two sessions. See the latest futures prices.

June unleaded gasoline climbed 3.11 cents to trade at $1.418 a gallon on Nymex, after briefly touching a one-week low of $1.362. June heating oil also rose, climbing 2.8 cents to $1.0415 per gallon.

The inventory reports "will be a distant memory when another incident happens in Iraq or when Joe and Jane driver are filling up their SUV this week," said Kevin Kerr, editor of Kwest Market Edge. See the newsletter.

"The proof is in the pudding -- how will it translate at the pump," he said.

A price drop in the near term could "mute any production increase talk from OPEC, and any more talk of release from the SPR," Kerr said. But in the end, that "could result in even higher prices down the road."

The SPR, or Strategic Petroleum Reserve, is maintained by the U.S. government for use at times of national emergency, but it's been tapped to help lower commercial gasoline prices twice in the past.

...more...

and

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=a142AMVN6atA&refer=us

AMR's Jet Fuel Costs May Rise 25 Percent From 2003, Arpey Says

May 19 (Bloomberg) -- AMR Corp.'s American Airlines, the world's largest carrier, will boost spending for jet fuel as much as 25 percent because of rising oil prices, Chief Executive Officer Gerard Arpey said.

``Fuel prices have had an enormous impact on our recovery,'' Arpey said at a press conference after AMR's annual meeting in Fort Worth, Texas. ``The impact has been extraordinary. We thought we were coming off a year in which we already had high oil prices because of the war.''

American and U.S. airlines such as Continental Airlines Inc. have failed in three attempts this year to boost fares when discount carriers declined to match. Continental, the fifth- biggest U.S. carrier, yesterday raised fares as much as $20 per round-trip ticket, and Arpey said American probably would match.

Fuel costs may increase $600 million to $700 million from last year, Arpey said at the news conference. New York oil prices have gained 9 percent this month, partly on concern that rising gasoline consumption will outstrip efforts by refiners and importers to boost supplies for the summer driving season.

Gasoline demand traditionally peaks between the Memorial Day holiday, this year on May 31, and Labor Day in early September. Crude oil for June delivery was up 21 cents, or 0.5 percent, to $40.75 as of 11:50 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

A $1 increase in the per-barrel price of oil boosts American's fuel costs by $80 million a year, Arpey said. American's fuel expenses last year increased 8.2 percent to $2.77 billion from $2.56 billion in 2002, the company said Jan. 21.

...more...

Dow 9,990.16 +21.65
Nasdaq 1,909.16 +11.34
S&P 1,093.81 +2.32

it's the benchmark that has been set.

It's "breaking a psychological barrier" when it's going up, and leads all the nightly news broadcasts, but going down it's somehow not so significant. Not sure why...

The Plunge Production Team.

Why... isn't it true that any time the market moves one way and then reverses for no apearent reason it's got to be manipulation?

in such a lovely :tinfoilhat: :D

I don't think that the change was due to the PPT - perhaps the bad publicity that the "images" have been giving the public and the perception of hypocrisy perhaps?

Perhaps it's the SPT (surge protection team). Can't have money moving to the markets, we need them to buy bonds!

Dow 9,967.10 -1.42
Nasdaq 1,905.95 +8.23
S&P 1,091.92 +0.47

Dow 9,942.19 -26.32
Nasdaq 1,899.28 +1.46
S&P 1,089.14 -2.35

http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/business/20040518-1133-bush-greenspan.html

By Terence Hunt
ASSOCIATED PRESS
11:33 a.m. May 18, 2004

snip

WASHINGTON – President Bush renominated Alan Greenspan as chairman of the Federal Reserve on Tuesday, praising his leadership and sending a strong signal of stability to financial markets.

The nomination was announced as Greenspan met at the White House with the president.

"Sound fiscal and monetary policies have helped unleash the potential of American workers and entrepreneurs, and America's economy is now growing at the fastest rate in two decades," Bush said in a statement.

"Alan Greenspan has done a superb job as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, and I have great continuing confidence in his economic stewardship," the president said.


Can't say I'm surprised by this. After all, it would be suicidal, at this moment in time, to do anything else.

200 day MA, while the S&P is right on it. (from the 1 year charts anyway). I'd have to look 'em up to be certain and I'm just not that curious today.

morning too)

Close Dow -30.80 at 9,937.71, S&P -2.81 at 1,088.68, Nasdaq +0.35 at 1,898.17:
What started out as a terrific session for market enthusiasts, with the Nasdaq advancing as much as 2.0%, ended up with the bitter disappointment of a relatively flat to slightly lower close for the major averages... The early optimism was largely an extension of yesterday's rally, supported by a lack of disturbing geopolitical headlines and upbeat comments from the likes of Hewlett-Packard (HPQ 20.72 +0.89) and Applied Materials (AMAT 18.76 -0.09)...

In its advance, the Dow lifted above the psychologically-significant 10K level, as well as its 200-day simple moving average at 10,033, inciting additional buying in the broader market... While leadership to the upside was broad-based with laggards being identified in terms of sectors that are showing the smallest gains, volume was only moderate at best, speaking to participants' lack of conviction to the move higher... In that same vein, the Nasdaq's failure to lift above the top of its recent trading range at 1037 (session high 1036) cooled the market's advance and the participants' enthusiasm even further...

With two hours of trade remaining, selling of S&P futures by a Tier 1 firm drove the market lower, while the relatively uninspiring volume totals and Friday's monthly options expiration exaggerated the extent of the move... At market close, sector leadership was mixed with leaders to the upside including the networking, semiconductor, communications equipment, gold, coal, iron & steel sectors... Among the laggards of note were the biotech and REIT groups... Elsewhere, the bond market was able to close off its worst levels of the day, although the 10-year note was still down 9/32, bringing its yield up to 4.77%... NYSE Adv/Dec 1791/1526, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1669/1487


Ewww, and check out the new highs and lows

Advances & Declines
NYSE Nasdaq
Advances 1792 (51%) 1669 (50%)
Declines 1523 (44%) 1487 (45%)
Unchanged 142 (4%) 125 (3%)

----------------------------------------------------------------------

Up Vol* 793 (51%) 1023 (56%)
Down Vol* 729 (47%) 756 (41%)
Unch. Vol* 24 (1%) 35 (1%)

----------------------------------------------------------------------

New Hi's 22 42
New Lo's 44 81


Oh well, just another day at the market. May tomorrow will be better.

The DOW'll come up
Tomorrow
Bet your bottom dollar
That tomorrow
There'll be a sum!

Just thinkin' about
Tomorrow
Clears away the losses,
And the sorrow
'Til there's none!

When it sucks a day
That's gray,
No money,
I just stick out my chin
And Grin,
And Say,
Oh!

The DOW'll come up
Tomorrow
So ya gotta hang on
'Til tomorrow
Come what may
Tomorrow! Tomorrow!
I love ya Tomorrow!
You're always
A buy
A way! :evilgrin:

Put another quarter in and try again!

'Cause you know it's going to become the theme song for the stock-whores! You might as well get your cut!

Nasdaq - seems that wasn't a true rally like the blather tried to explain it. It seems it was a lot of short covering - AGAIN?!?!

3:53PM Nasdaq gives back day's gains; talk is profit-taking into this morning's short-covering driven rally, exacerbated by lack of liquidity : Trading desks indicating that there is no conviction to step in with bids given continued political uncertainty, as well as lack of visibility into rate picture and economic impact of sharply higher oil prices. Institutions also focusing on the poor historical performance of equities during the summer months, which is leading many accounts shackled to the sidelines.

Hmmmm, didn't we recently have a few articles about the liquidity trap?

Don't know about shorts, it's too cold here. ;-)

I still think the real estate market's going to crash, and take some mortgage companies with it. I'm not in the stock market at all, and my "bond" holdings are really things like my CD and other things that don't actually risk the principal. I know I'll have to get more agressive soon if we're going to retire on anything other than canine cuisine, but I'm waiting for the election before I put any more principal at risk. Learned my lesson in the mid eighties, and, just to reinforce the lesson, in 2001 - when Pukes get in, I get out!

So, right now, a real estate collapse is my main staring at the ceiling instead of sleeping worry. Beats nuc-YOO-lar war, I guess...