Poll predicts minority (Canada- Libs in trouble)

OTTAWA - Paul Martin and the Liberals are heading for the first minority government since 1980 in the coming election as a result of a late surge in Conservative support and a pervasive "mood of negativity" among voters, according to a new National Post/Global National poll.

The COMPAS survey shows Stephen Harper's Conservatives are closing the gap with the Liberals and are now at 31% of voter support compared to 39% for the Martin government.

{snip}

In addition to anger over the provincial budget -- where the Liberals imposed a health care "premium" on taxpayers after pledging not to raise taxes -- Mr. Winn said Ontario voters could be reacting to a series of negative Liberal advertisements that attack Mr. Harper.

He noted that Ontarians have a recent history of responding negatively toward the source of attack ads, not their target. When Ernie Eves unveiled a series of commercials targeting Dalton McGuinty last fall, Tory fortunes plummeted and the Liberals rode to a strong majority win.

http://www.canada.com/national/nationalpost/news/story.html?id=e10fe1c4-b12e-4a8d-83e9-f29c62ca2c88

They are known to massage the figures to promote Conservatives.

Is this election only in Ontario?

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and HI! :hi:

...and it's allegedly going to happen on June 28, if Martin ever gets around to calling the damned thing. Every day that he hesitates costs him votes.

Seems like they've been saying that every Friday for the past couple of months. Well, they'll get a winner one day...

:silly:

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I assume that's tongue in cheek, being as how you swore off making these predictions a few weeks ago! :hi:

Although, to be fair, I was told this by a couple of journalists an MLA and a mystery celebrity, so take that as you will.

...but if I am not mistaken does Ontario not have enough seats in Parliament that by themselves they can choose the PM?

Ontario and Quebec together have enough votes to elect a majority party or close to it.
The leader of this party would then become the PM.

The Liberals are toast in Québec- to have any chance at all they need at least 2/3 of the seats in Ontario.

The Bloc is a joke. No way they'd vote NDP or Conservative (or whatever they're called this week)

The only reason the Libs won the last two elections is that they swept Ontario, which has ~1/3 of the seats in the House. Two factors have changed since the last election:

1. The opposition was split. The Conservative party was divided three ways in the early 90s (Bloc, PC and Reform) when Brian Mulroney's coalition of Québec nationalists, Ontario centrists and western conservatives fell apart. In terms of raw vote counts this only affected a few ridings, but more importantly it left people here with the impression that the Liberals were the only truly "national" party (even though all parties except the Bloc had candidates and supporters in every province).

2. Ontario elected a Liberal government last fall and the pattern here is to elect different parties at the federal and provincial levels. The Liberals were elected in Ontario one year after Mulroney took office, and the Conservatives won here two years after Chrétien became PM. Additionally, there is a tremendous amount of anger being directed at the Liberals in Ontario, from both ends of the political spectrum, over this week's budget that increased taxes and reduced health coverage.

They make it sound bad for Libs.

IMHO is extremist and a right wing rag.

It's a bully-pulpit for the politically psychotic.

National Post polls are notorious for pushing the Tory line (can we call them Tories again?).

I was amused by part of the article that stated "Canadian born children of immigrants were more likely to vote Conservative than Liberal by 48% to 36% (or something like that). Once you have sliced and diced a poll to such restricted subsamples, the margin of error grows to such an extent that results have little meaning. This was the overall tone of the report, as far as I was concerned.

For what it is worth, I frequently have to analyze survey results as part of my job, so I am fairly familiar with methodological issues.

Looks like the Libs will hold the maritimes, get clobbered in Québec and lose a substantial number of seats in Ontario and BC. Conservatives will be static in the maritimes, shut out of Québec and gain a handful of seats in Ontario. The NDP will make some gains in the western provinces (except Alberta, which is no-man's land for them) and hold what they have in the maritimes. The most critical area for the Liberals is Ontario- the wildcard here is the amount of anger at the provincial Liberals over this week's budget that spills over to the federal side.

Fits nicely into a preconceived plan to connect provincial and federal liberals together.

Most polls are, as Dief said, good for dogs.

Any addition to the Liberals would probably move them left.

but it won't break that way. It will either be a Liberal/Alliance (the faux Conservative party)or a Liberal/Parti Quebecois govt because of the way the ridings stack up. We have had a Liberal majority government with the Parti Quebecois as the Loyal Opposition before due to the number of ridings allocated to Quebec.

If the combined Liberal/NDP seat count is more than 155 then it's a lock for Martin because the NDP would never back the Tories. It's a bit more complex than that for the Bloc, though, because they would face a strong backlash from the voters if they backed the Liberals, but backing the Tories (their former allies from the Mulroney era) would probably result in a reduction of the federal cash going to their province. A Tory/Bloc deal can't be ruled out because in spite of a lot of the popular mythology about the Reform/Alliance attitude towards Québec, both parties favour greater autonomy for the provinces while the Liberals lean towards more centralization in Ottawa. It was this formala that created Brian Mulroney's landslide victory in 1984.

The one thing that both the NDP and the Bloc risk is that traditionally the party holding the balance of power loses big in following elections. The NDP lost a lot of seats (including that of their leader) in 1974, and the Parti Créditiste was wiped out in 1980.

First, Harper has plenty of statements on record that could be used against him, such as his support for the Iraq war. This will probably erode his support over an election campaign, although I can see at least on alternative scenario as far as this goes. Ironically, if Kerry seems to be doing well in the U.S. polls, it may help Harper and the Conservatives, as there would be less concern on the part of Canadians about being drawn into American military adventures. However, there is still health care and a host of other issues that will tend to erode his support as people give it more thought.

Also, if by some chance Harper does look like he is doing well in Ontario, I would not be surprised if Quebec voters start to throw their support behind the Liberals. They are usually pretty canny this way - they will park their vote with a regional protest party, but if it looks like a party they don't trust has momentum, they will go back to the Liberals.

I totally agree. Harper is well understood by Canadians, he is anti-immigrant, anti-social programs, pro-tax cuts and that has not nor will not change. The only way the faux Conservatives could have increased their support would have been to elect a leader that was a moderate Conservative.

(Sorry, but I have been itching to use that word)

I would also add that the whiff of fundamentalism attached to the Alliance/conservative party makes a lot of people very uncomfortable. The last time Quebeckers? voted conservative it was for the progressive conservative party.

Too bad I'll be missing all the fun as I am off to Europe next week. I'll be back in time to vote though.

Could anyone make one thread with some of the more pertinent stuff so I could catch up on my return? Although I know who I am going to vote for, there should be some interesting reading.