Byelection test for Blair after MP dies

http://politics.guardian.co.uk/byelections/story/0,11043,1226406,00.html

The death of Mr Marshall, who had one son and daughter from his first marriage, will create an awkward byelection for Tony Blair. Although he had a healthy 13,243 majority at the last general election, this may be vulnerable if Leicester South's large Asian community turns against the government in protest at the Iraq war.

The Liberal Democrats, who came third at the last election with 17%, will hope to repeat their success in the Brent East byelection of last September, when Sarah Teather captured a seat Labour won with a majority of 13,047 in 2001.

The byelection will also present Michael Howard with his first parliamentary test since he became Tory leader last November.

Although the Tories were a distant second in 2001, with 23% of the vote, they will need to ensure that they at least hold on to to their vote to avoid an embarrassing result for Mr Howard. Iain Duncan Smith never recovered his authority after the Tories fell from second to third place in the Brent East byelection.