Battleground polls give Electoral College to Kerry

http://www.startribune.com/stories/587/4801869.html

Horse-race polls based on national samples continue to show the presidential election a tossup. But the first attempt to systematically poll the battleground states -- the ones that hold the key to the outcome -- suggests that if the election were held now, Sen. John Kerry would win a crushing Electoral College victory

Pollster John Zogby has launched a project to follow 16 battleground states -- eight that Bush carried in 2000 and eight that were carried by Democrat Al Gore. The first sounding, taken May 18-23 and published in the Online Wall Street Journal last week, had Kerry ahead in 12 of the 16 states, including the four biggest. If Kerry were to win all of the states in which Zogby found him to be leading, he would win the electoral vote by 320-218.

...

The four battleground states in which Zogby showed Bush with leads of 2.4 to 5.2 percentage points were: Arkansas, Iowa, Tennessee and West Virginia. They have a total of 29 electoral votes. Of these, only Iowa, with seven electoral votes, would be a pickup for Bush. He carried the other three states in 2000.

The 12 states in which Zogby showed Kerry ahead, by margins ranging from 1.4 to 9.6 percentage points, were: Florida, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Washington and Wisconsin. They have a total of 148 electoral votes. Of these, Bush carried Florida, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire and Ohio in 2000.

I have no clue who Zogby polled here, but in my own informal way, I've been polling. So far, in the last 8 months, I have met one person who said they'd vote for Bush, and that was last November. I have heard from half a dozen folks who have voluntarily told me that they hate Bush and will vote Democratic to save our country. I'm not talking about friends who know me (None of my friends are voting for the Shrub). And I live in the most conservative part of the state.

In Arkansas, people are mad about some things that can be directly linked to Republicans. One is the school consolidation/funding fiasco, which is mostly blamed on the Rethug governor Huckabee. The other is the treatment of National Guard/Reserves. Arkansas has quite a few troops over in Iraq, and families know first hand on how they have been shafted in terms of equipment and benefits. These are both hot button issues and I predict that the Rethugs will not do well in Arkansas this year, despite any polls.

If this place is such a lock, why the HELL have bu$h and Cheney been here something like six times this year? Short answer: they know Arkansas is up for grabs, despite the best efforts of GUBERnor Chucklebuck. Be afraid, Dick. Be very afraid.

:hi: ayeshaqqiqa!
dbt

I live in a pretty conservative area too and I was talking to a man in line yesterday at the check-out line in the store about this. He's not happy with bush either. Called him an "oil prez" 'cause that's all he's worried about. There are alot of pissed off people.

He only carried Ohio by 4 points last election. 250k jobs have been lost here and a week after his last visit to a plant owned by Timkin (one of his contributors, the plant announced it was closing - 1300 more jobs out the window!

"Pollster John Zogby has launched a project to follow 16 battleground states..."

I read a few weeks ago (forgot where - but it was reputable) that Zogby is the only big-name pollster trusted by both Dems and GOP.

Looking better and better, thus far.

Wait for housing to slow down after rates rise further, while personal income remains stagnant. I think then we'll see a further erosion of our favorite GOP candidate.

Oh, and then those university and college tuition bills will land in the mailboxes of Shrub's strongest demographic in late August and early September. Those are going to be whoppers!

too and with good reason.

How many of these states are set up for BBV?

exit polling this year. It may be the only firewall to expose vote fraud, although if it shows whacked out numbers again they can just bury it like 2002.

Notice how the exit poll web page for Florida in 2000 is blank, while the other states are all still there:
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2000/results/index.epolls.html

sworn they did it in 2002 but scrubbed the release of all the information on the Senate races that had the strange outcomes. They simply said the polls were wrong, it could never have been the voting method. That could NOT happen in America.

and not one bush* sticker!

:bounce:

nt

but i live in northern kentucky ( up by cincinnati,oh.) and i very seldom can find one person to vote for kerry! these people make me sick. this used to be a very solid democratic state.but we have two repub asshole senators, (bunning & mcconnell)who do a lot of footwork for shrub.