WP: Democrats Unlikely to Retake House

Redistricting Is Biggest Obstacle

Monday, August 11, 2003; Page A01

Numerous Democratic strategists have become convinced in recent months that their party is unlikely to pick up the dozen seats it needs to retake the House, even in the face of a sluggish economy and mounting questions about Iraq that could be issues to use against the Republican-dominated administration.

Analysts who have been following the early battle for control of the 435-member House say a relative lack of public anger to fuel anti-incumbent voting and a strong GOP fundraising effort underway will be difficult for Democrats to surmount.

The biggest factor, however, is one that has thwarted Democratic hopes before and, if anything, is growing worse: Congressional redistricting has produced a remarkably small number of competitive districts nationwide. As a result, Democrats must win a huge percentage of the toss-up races to regain the House majority they lost a decade ago.

"There's just not enough districts in play," said Stuart Rothenberg, who edits the Rothenberg Political Report. Democrats "will need a wave" to win back the House, he said -- and thus far, no such wave seems to be forming.

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http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A42074-2003Aug10.html

The suspense was killing me :silly:

we do need a "surge" to overcome the GOP's built-in advantages.

I don't see it happening, especially if the TX redistricting goes through.

It is not even a question this year.

are WAY too positive WAY too early.

Is it easy or probable? Probably not. Out of the question? No way.

Any House Minority over 200 seats can win control at the next election if conditions are favorable. Don't even have to be perfect, especially in a Presidential years, which is slightly more Democratic than off-years.

even if Bush is found cutting the throat of a 13 year old hooker.

The biggest scandel in American history (Watergate) only took down the president and his immediate cronies. It didn't do anything to the Republican party. If you remember correctly Reagan was elected just 5 years (2 house elections) later.

The Democrats won FIFTY seats in 1974.

Only IF Bush is caught slitting the throat of a 13-year-old hooker will the Democrats win back the house in 2004.

which resulted in thousands of American and innocent Iraqi deaths. He is, at the least, implicated in ignoring warnings about 9/11 which resulted in the deaths of 3000 Americans and other world citizens. Bush's crimes are a million times worse than what Nixon was caught doing. If the American electorate is incapable of recognizing and reacting to such horror (by shoving this gang of war mongers and mass murders out the door), I can't imagine what we will be subjected to next. WAKE UP AMERICA! :spank:

Nov 1974 huge Reublican loss in the House and Senate due to watergate. Jim Jeffords of VT was one of a handful of Freshman Repugs to win that year. What are you talking about.

as good as winning back the WH.

I have been saying that it will take THAT kind of wave to win the Presidency.

In the Senate, I am afraid, we are royally screwed for awhile.

By that, I mean one that the media actually reports.

"relative lack of public anger to fuel anti-incumbent voting"

... a self-fulfilling prophecy. :eyes:

Anything can happen. You never know what might bubble to the surface.

unfortunately the house doesn't look good for takeover but the senate could potentially be won.

After all, that's how we got into this mess to begin with. If the Republicans hadn't controlled redistricting in states like Pennsylvania and Michigan, the Dems might still have had a fighting chance to retake the House. Now we have to wait until 2012.

We need to retake statehouses across the country...if we do that, then Congress will follow as we'll have a deeper bench and we'll have drawn the Congressional lines.

We would need to have a "voluntarist," or world-historical sense of mission in order to take the house. There would need to be a serious, furious, life-and-death effort on the part of many thousands of activists who felt on the verge of political revolution. The DLC won't do it, that's for sure. Can't rely on the leadership...

At 3AM to boot...

The odds... :(

...Saddam Hussein has weapons of mass destruction.

Oh, wait... :-)

not just sit around and hope one comes along!

NYT article today lays it out well -

" the importance of ideologues and extremists — that is, of people who cling to strong beliefs — can't be overstated. It is they who bring passion and energy to politics, as Dr. Dean's Web-linked legions are now doing. Without these "radicals," parties can lose their way.

The Republican establishment learned this lesson almost despite itself in the 1964 election. Democrats would do well to study that campaign, too, since its circumstances were remarkably similar to those unfolding today."

Get some outrage going, you know, "we're mad as hell and we're not going to take it anymoe".

Of course gaining 12 seats is going to be hard, but never say never. We are going to need a wave, but we can create one. We can win back the seats (they are winnable). However, we have to get out the vote and we have to support our candidates.

Where the hell have these people been the last two and one half years? 6.5% unemployed and 5% under employed and sub 2% growth suck.

HOw utterly stupid are these people? If you were REALLY a Dem strategist.. would you say that the House will not be taken back? Oh, how the fuck do they know? Isn't taking the house back what these people are being paid to do? Seems that the so-called Democratic experts don't seem to jack for their 6-figure salaries.. other than predict doom and gloom. They need to get off their leather chaired asses and win the House back... STATEGIZE YOU MORONS!! GEEZ!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Sorry.. I am just so SICK of Democratic apologists and scaredy cats. Where are the heavyweights? Where do I apply for a job strategizing for the Dems?

The DLC just will not fight. Even for its own political life. They arn't even giving us the "Secrit plan" crap this time around. Just admit defeat, even before the campain is started.

And what do you mean "no current of public anger?" Hello! Earth calling. Try asking questions OUTSIDE the Bush fundraser for once. Or do we need to show up on the capital lawn with pich forcs and torches?

"Aura of inevitability.."

"George W. Bush is planning on carrying Massachusetts and Rhode Island next year..."

"One Democratic consultant, who spoke on the condition of anonynimity, suggested that the Democrats not even bother to run a candidate for president next year.."

Enough already! This is getting to be like the propping up of the leaders of the old Soviet Union by the state run Tass News Agency.

In the whole goddam article, not one "Democratic analyst" is quoted even with a blind quote, despite the inference in the headline and lede.

Pfffft.

Watch us.

http://www.takebackthemedia.com/onearmy.html

We are..

Redistricting aside- the economy is going to continue to be in the tank- probably worse and Iraq is going to be quagmire. If Dean, especially, or even Kerry or Clark win the nomination- and make the election a referrendum on Bush's disasterous policies- if they nationalize it, like Gingrich did in 94, Dems WILL take back the House and the Senate. Hands down.

Don't buy into the Post's spin.

They have such an obvious Republican editiorial bias that they've lost all credibility in political matters.

What a crock of shit.

Dean will bring in 15 million new voters.

That will make a difference.

Why don't they become economic analysts? They seem qualified except they need to lie optimistically.

Well, actually what we need is a party organization that takes as much interest in correcting EACH individual district situation as the Cheny/Rove team is doing down to dogcatchers.

Instead they are on the bleak shore looking a tsunami of unaided voters to appear.

I hope they are still standing there when it arrives.

Strategically, there aren't enough seats in play at this time. However, a 30, 40, or 50 seat wave could occur if enough people are angry at the * policies.

It doesn't look likely, but it is vaguely possible.

There are so many safe Republican districts that it would have to take a massive wave of anti-Republican sentiment to push a significant number of Republican incumbents out of office. And the fact of the matter is, it's hard to recruit good Democratic candidates in safe Republican districts, so even if an anit-Republican wave occurs, the Democrats may not be well positioned to take advantage of it.

I'm thinking of OH-16...places where the incumbents are considered safe but the districts are closely divided. In any case, our strategy is probably going to be to keep running at those incumbents until they crack in 2006 or 2008.

That kind of massive wave?

And that was a midterm election, mind you -- not exactly the time for huge voter turnout. I recall the John McLaughlin asking his panelists on "The McLaughlin Group" by how many seats the GOP would increase its majority in Congress. I recall the Washington Post Outlook section (i.e., the Sunday op-eds) publishing the estimates of GOP and Democratic seats in Congress following the election. In the latter case, a number of pundits, plus a group of high schoolers from Silver Spring, Maryland, weighed in.

As it turned out, the GOP lost seats and Gingrich was forced to resign as speaker.

Guess who was most accurate in predicting congressional seats.

That's right: the high school kids.

It's 14-plus months till the election of 2004. Making absolute pronouncements at this point is a waste of time.

And I'm beginning to suspect that there's a significant GOP presence here to demoralize actual Democrats.

As for the media, I KNOW there's a signficant attempt to demoralize the Democrats.

What happens if we lose? Economic collapse. World War with us as the enemy (problem there, we have no interest in fighting such a war). Arrest and detention of American citizens dubbed "enemy combatants" for war protest. Riots. Burning. Death.

Maybe even a few gated communities will start coughing from the smoke.

This is fascism. Corporatism. Worshipping corporate behavior and corporate rules is what got us here.

We might want to rethink that.