STOCK MARKET WATCH, THURSDAY, AUGUST 28.....(#1)

A few bits and pieces of the Wrap-up by Hartman (BTW Ozy, was it you that asked about Jim Puplova the other day?? I don't know where he went, miss him though):

According to the Mortgage Bankers Association of America, mortgage applications fell to the lowest level in 14 months. Applications declined 13.3% last week with the refinancing index falling by 21.3%. This is now the eighth consecutive week the re-fi index has gone down. Refinancing peaked in May of this year and has declined 78% since then, the largest drop in refinancing activity for any three-month period since records have been kept. According to Steven Wood, Principal Economist at Insight Economics, “Housing’s contribution to economic growth will turn negative by the fourth quarter.” With much of America’s disposable cash in the last two years coming from cash-out refinancing, we will need a substitute stimulus of some kind to keep the consumer spending. It is yet to be seen if the reduced federal income taxes will be enough to make up the difference. The best substitute for cash-out re-fi’s would be job creation to replace the millions of manufacturing jobs that have been lost.

<snip>

Gold & Silver

Gold came into the New York session today at $365 per ounce, went straight up at the open for a gain of $5 and never looked back by adding $7.00 or 1.9% from yesterday to close at $372.30. Likewise silver came in at $5.00, shot straight up to $5.08 at the open and ended the day closing 13 cents higher at $5.16, a gain of 2.6%. This is getting to be exciting as the breakout is upon us. In my estimation gold will need to close above $375 and silver will need to close above $5.20 to confirm the breakout. The Unhedged Gold Bugs Index (HUI) closed today at 193.93, a gain of 11.18 points or 6.1%. That’s a fresh new high for gold stocks since the bull market began in the fourth quarter of 2000. In the middle of March this year, the HUI Index hit a low of 112.61, so with today’s close the index is up 72% in less than six months. That is three times better than the performance of the overall stock market since the war rally began. It looks like precious metals is the place to be!

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

To me it looks like big sea change is in the air. With all the happy talk all over TV I hope not too many are caught swallowing that happy talk when the storm hits.

With the wrap-up this morn is a great chart on gold. Ok, make that a couple but the first on that's right on top, that's the one that sums it up so nicely IMO (worth significantly less than the $1.75 Ozy gets for his :-) ).

Also hear that Halliburton is getting $705 million more in Iraq work and Bechtel will get another $350 million. No wonder GDP is up, we are spending a lot of government $$$! With the way things are going it's probably a safe bet spending in Iraq, military/rebuilding, will assure us of happy but useless GDP #s for some time to come.

Unfortunately deficit spending is growing at a faster rate.

More later.

Julie

Metals is the market to watch today. The action on the bond charts and the gold charts was eerily dramatic.

All Quiet on the Wall Street Front

It was a quiet day on Wall Street with the Dow Jones Industrial Average trading in a 40-point range for the entire session. In the end, the Dow Industrials lost six points to close at 9,333, the S&P 500 finished flat at 996, and the NASDAQ Composite hovered in positive territory for most of the day and closed at 1,782, a gain of eleven points. The broad market held up fairly well with 1,860 stocks advancing and 1,156 declining for the day. Overall the markets were quiet with very little economic news to digest, except for the new data on U.S. mortgage applications.
<..cut..>

Gold & Silver

Gold came into the New York session today at $365 per ounce, went straight up at the open for a gain of $5 and never looked back by adding $7.00 or 1.9% from yesterday to close at $372.30. Likewise silver came in at $5.00, shot straight up to $5.08 at the open and ended the day closing 13 cents higher at $5.16, a gain of 2.6%. This is getting to be exciting as the breakout is upon us. In my estimation gold will need to close above $375 and silver will need to close above $5.20 to confirm the breakout. The Unhedged Gold Bugs Index (HUI) closed today at 193.93, a gain of 11.18 points or 6.1%. That’s a fresh new high for gold stocks since the bull market began in the fourth quarter of 2000. In the middle of March this year, the HUI Index hit a low of 112.61, so with today’s close the index is up 72% in less than six months. That is three times better than the performance of the overall stock market since the war rally began. It looks like precious metals is the place to be!

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

I tried to guess, if you put up some wrap-up what part of it wouldn't you choose. The gold was good though so I risked the double. ;-)

Julie

Jobless claims rise
New weekly claims for unemployment benefits higher than expected but remain below key 400,000 level.
August 28, 2003: 8:46 AM EDT
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - New U.S. claims for jobless benefits inched higher last week, boosted by lingering effects of the blackout, the government said Thursday in a report that still suggested a slowly improving job market.

The Labor Department said initial claims for state unemployment benefits, an early read on the resilience of the labor market, rose 3,000 to 394,000 in the Aug. 23 week from a revised 391,000 in the prior week. The gentle rise was slightly above market expectations for 390,000 new claims.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Since this figure is ALWAYS revised, will it actually be above 400K by next week so it can go down instead of up? :shrug: just asking...

I think I'm going from pessimist to cynic...

This is always the case isn't it? When have we had a reliable employment statement - one that was not revised upward the following week?

Good morning Maeve. :donut: :donut: :donut:

Has everyone adjusted back to normal life after Ireland?

No, Ireland was normal; the US is :crazy: . I just want to grab another flight out! I'll just have to make due with a shopping trip, tho...

GDP expansion of 3.1 percent is up from previous estimate, boosted by jump in defense spending.

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Soaring defense spending pushed U.S. economic growth in the second quarter to a faster pace than previously thought, the government said Thursday in a report that was the latest in a string of data indicating the economy is on the mend.

Gross domestic product, or GDP, grew at a revised 3.1 percent in the second quarter, the Commerce Department said -- a figure a shade above Wall Street forecasts for a 2.9 percent gain. That was up from the 2.4 percent rise estimated a month ago and the anemic 1.4 percent growth rate in each of the two prior quarters.

more story

Well, it looks as if we keep having wars then the economy will be just peachy.

Dow 9,352.24 +18.45 (+0.20%)
Nasdaq 1,791.24 +9.11 (+0.51%)
S&P 500 999.64 +2.85 (+0.29%)
10-Yr Bond 4.486% -0.050

And I'll catch y'all later. Got a few errands to run.

Dow 9,293.22 -40.57 (-0.43%)
Nasdaq 1,779.45 -2.68 (-0.15%)
S&P 500 994.92 -1.87 (-0.19%)
10-Yr Bond 4.467% -0.069

Treasuries aren't looking too bad though.

Julie

U.S. TREASURYS 8/27/2003

Time Yield Change

1 month 0.99 0.02

3 month 1.00 UNCH

6 month 1.06 UNCH

2 year 1.97 0.08

5 year 3.54 0.08

10 year 4.54 0.06

30 year 5.31 0.04

12:07 PM -

Dow 9,320.59 -13.20 (-0.14%)
Nasdaq 1,788.50 +6.37 (+0.36%)
S&P 500 997.54 +0.75 (+0.08%)
10-Yr Bond 4.464% -0.072

And according to Yahoo Finance - life is fun, if you are a trader who's not on vacation yet!

"12:00PM: Another morning of wild price action as a thin trading environment, a dearth of industry leadership, and a lack of conviction among buyers and sellers alike have added up into a volatile market... The indices started the day on solid footing, slightly above the unchanged mark, due to two economic reports that portended well for the economy's recovery... The advanced Q2 GDP figure jumped to 3.1% (consensus of 2.9%) from 2.4% as both personal spending and, even more so, business investment were upwardly revised...

Although this report is less significant than others - as it reflects last quarter's economic conditions, it still indicates that the economy has bounced back from the war in Iraq and global SARS outbreak... The second piece of economic data, initial claims for the week of August 23, rose by 3K to 394K (consensus of 390K) and suggested that the labor market is still in the midst of a turnaround... The market's good vibe from these reports, however, was short-lived, as the Nasdaq failed to move significantly above the 52-week closing high it set yesterday, while the S&P 500 stalled at the 1,000 level...

Traders took the market's inertia as a sign that upside momentum was slowing, and locked profits in momentum names such as technology, biotech, post-secondary education, and homebuilding... The market has recovered some since the mid-morning sell-off, with the Composite moving back into positive territory and the blue chip averages just slightly below the flat line..."

nominally anyway--12:45


Dow 9,321.15 -12.64 (-0.14%)
Nasdaq 1,788.66 +6.53 (+0.37%)
S&P 500 997.39 +0.60 (+0.06%)
10-Yr Bond 4.446% -0.090


*yawn*

Julie

Hi everyone,

I have to post this quick to squeeze in some precious TTT viewing moments before work! (I am so totally Nerd of the Rings!)

Anyway! Today's reading is CONTEMPLATING changing to UNITY.

Here is a quote from Contemplating, "In matters of business, your ideas will have true impact. Use this opportunity to explore, contemplate, and modify any practices that seem unsuitable."
The Unity hexagram stresses awareness of your part in the larger society. I'm not sure how this relates to the markets and their direction for today, but it seems to me that Ching has been stressing the health of society lately. Maybe Ching is trying to say that our economic practices are not good for our civilization.
:shrug:

I'm going to predict a day of either small gains or small losses. Nothing major.

The changes have been incremental since this morning's fifty-point swoop into the red. Perhaps the larger society refers to the government's staggering deficit and how it plays against markets elsewhere in the world. After all, macroeconomics is a very incestuous business.

Looks like some folk may be having fun while the big kids are out of town, tho.
Dow 9,326.98 -6.81 (-0.07%)
Nasdaq 1,788.72 +6.59 (+0.37%)
S&P 500 997.07 +0.28 (+0.03%)

10-Yr Bond 4.445% -0.091

You can probably type faster, however, since you are two minutes ahead of me :)

Copy and paste (although I have gotten recarkably fast at typing "font color=red")

Glad you've been helping keep the numbers posted, mrsteve! :hi:

First, the numbers - looks like Coventina is on the money for the Dow and S&P as they hover around the waterline:

Dow 9,330.28 -3.51 (-0.04%)
Nasdaq 1,789.16 +7.03 (+0.39%)
S&P 500 997.27 +0.48 (+0.05%)
10-Yr Bond 4.442% -0.094

And the analysis from Yahoo:

"1:00PM: Major indices hold tight to the day's trading formation, the Nasdaq outperforming the blue chips... Steady buying in areas of technology, such as storage, wireless, and large-cap tech issues, has kept the Composite above water... In general, however, none of the indices have been able to move substantially higher as traders have employed hedging strategies headed into the weekend... Consequently, the market did not receive much of a bounce from the strong Q2 GDP figure... Briefing.com, for one, had anticipated an above consensus estimate reading, and had set our own forecast at 3.0%..."

1:55 *yawn* Are we there yet?

DOW 9,325.15 -8.64 (-0.09%)
Nasdaq 1,788.51 +6.38 (+0.36%)
S&P 500 996.68 -0.11 (-0.01%)
10-Yr Bond 4.465% -0.071

Julie

I am just checking back in before work calls me away again. Have a wonderful afternoon! It looks as though these figures could go either way.

DJIA 9,334.21 0.42 (0.00%)
NASDAQ 1,790.60 8.47 (0.48%)
S&P 500 997.96 1.17 (0.12%)
10yr Note 4.54% 0.06

looks like another fabulous end of the day come-back! Isn't that amazing?!?!?!?

3:04


Dow 9,340.80 +7.01 (+0.08%)
Nasdaq 1,793.30 +11.17 (+0.63%)
S&P 500 998.90 +2.11 (+0.21%)
10-Yr Bond 4.441% -0.095


This is getting to be a "given".

Julie

Oooo, what a few folks can do when they put their minds to it! :eyes:

Dow 9,384.73 +50.94 (+0.55%)
Nasdaq 1,797.34 +15.21 (+0.85%)
S&P 500 1,003.03 +6.24 (+0.63%)
10-Yr Bond 4.430% -0.106

The dog days will give way to some serious volume next week, and it'll be a lot harder to place these kinds of games.

The adults are still on vacation I should be with them.

Monkeyshines abound.

I wonder who's buying the treasuries, particularly 10 years , at these levels? The convexity is worked through the system; I'm on the sidelines--never play the markets last week of Aug.
I may extend that policy to the next ten weeks!

Lotta unwinding at close of positions left dangling and hoping for better hence the resulting upside swish from short covering.

Many Many bigs are upside down on both sides of the aisle; there is a huge contingent who see rough times ahead and have been shorting all the way into this rally. Some are losing their nerve and covering; some as much as ten percent of their bearish spreads per day this past week. Always wait until close though.

If you're a financial institution, you better be delta neutral in your bond hedge. Rumor has it this is not the case at among others Deuschebank BBH and CITI. If so, look for the long knives to appear suddenly and viciously without warning in the next six weeks. The only way to make up the blood loss in the bond arena is to vampire it out of some poor schmuck who's long equities and take the other side of his trade. This seems to be the pattern resulting in the late hour bumps. Once everyone is set to go , hold on tight.

Yes. I'm calling for a correction in stocks that will benefit certain parts of the curve, like the belly. I LOVE being cutting edge.

Besides, I'm neutral, so I have nothing to lose. But I may start shopping for a dealer to write QQQ and SPXs for me. I figure I've got a little time

In futures,forget metals for a minute... would I be crazy to tell you 5.250 Nat Gas NGB3 looks like a lock?

It's gonna be a long cold winter kids

Oh. My. Look at the nice round numbers for the Nasdaq and S&P. I already said I'm turning cynical, so I'll just stick to reporting the numbers:

Dow 9,374.21 +40.42 (+0.43%)
Nasdaq 1,800.18 +18.05 (+1.01%)
S&P 500 1,002.84 +6.05 (+0.61%)
10-Yr Bond 4.430% -0.106