Victory, Mr President?

"Our strategy in Iraq is clear... I will settle for nothing less than complete victory" George Bush, yesterday
Rupert Cornwell
Patrick Cockburn and Andrew Buncombe
(snip)
In practical terms, neither the 30-minute speech, nor a 35-page National Strategy for Victory in Iraq issued by the administration beforehand, offered great novelty. The aim was to convince Americans deeply sceptical about the handling of a war that has taken the lives of so many US troops and is costing $6bn (£3.47bn) a month, that the White House had a policy beyond a mantra-like repetition of "stay the course". Polls show a majority of Americans think the US is bogged down in a Vietnam-like conflict that has made the US more, not less, vulnerable to terrorism, and Mr Bush's approval ratings have slumped to a dismal 37 per cent, the lowest of his presidency.

What the President said... and the reality of the war
'Our strategy in Iraq is clear. Our tactics are flexible and dynamic. We have changed them as conditions required and they are bringing us victory against a brutal enemy.'
After two-and-a-half years of war, nobody in Iraq believes the US is winning against the insurgents who have the active or passive support of the five million-strong Sunni Arab community. A key objective for Mr Bush is troop reduction and convincing the public the administration has a "strategy". No-one anticipates withdrawal of all troops any time soon.
'This war is going to take many turns. And the enemy must be defeated on every battlefield. Yet the terrorists have made it clear that Iraq is the central front in their war against humanity. And so we must recognise Iraq as the central front in the war on terror.'
The supporters of al-Qa'ida now have a haven in Iraq which they did not have before the war. Prior to invasion, there was no serious al-Qa'ida presence in Iraq. CIA director Porter Goss said that "Islamic extremists are exploiting the Iraqi conflict to recruit new anti-US jihadists." Mr Bush has admitted that al-Qa'ida accounts for only a tiny part of the insurgency. The aim of the bulk of the insurgency appears to be localised - namely driving out the US.

'Iraqi security forces are on the offensive against the enemy, cleaning out areas controlled by the terrorists and Saddam loyalists, leaving Iraqi forces to hold territory taken from the enemy, and following up with targeted reconstruction to help Iraqis rebuild their lives.' The US has been taking territory from the insurgents since the start of the fighting but the war is still intensifying. There is little sign of reconstruction. 'Iraqi forces are earning the trust of their countrymen who are willing to help them in the fight against the enemy. As the Iraqi forces grow in number, they're helping to keep a better hold on the cities taken from the enemy. And as Iraqi forces grow more capable, they're increasingly taking the lead in the fight against the terrorists.'
Iraq is getting closer to outright civil war. Sunnis are terrified of Shia troops and police. The Kurds want to reclaim Kirkuk. Each side has its death squads. John Pike, a military analyst, said it was impossible to assess the ability of Iraqi forces. "If they're saying there has been a change around and American forces are not taking the lead, but that Iraqi units are taking the lead, then it's difficult to understand why they are still shipping home so many body-bags."

rest of the article
http://news.independent.co.uk/world/americas/article330464.ece