Troubling ’07 Forecast for the Old-Line Media but Not for the Online

Troubling ’07 Forecast for the Old-Line Media but Not for the Online


Newspapers are finding that their Web sites, like this one for the News & Observer in North Carolina, are producing more of their ad revenue.

By STUART ELLIOTT
The New York Times
Published: December 5, 2006

"THE first Monday in October is known in legal circles as the start of the Supreme Court term. Similarly, on Madison Avenue, the first Monday in December has become familiar as the kickoff of the advertising forecast season.

And yesterday a flood of forecasts indeed flowed from analysts and agencies, all generally pointing to a challenging year ahead for the traditional media along with substantial growth for all things online.

(For those wondering why early December brings the predictions, it is because two brokerage firms, Credit Suisse and UBS, have long held their annual media conferences in the first week of the month. Other firms schedule the release of their forecasts at the same time, to ride the coattails of the competing conferences.)

Most forecasters are predicting growth in ad spending in the United States next year of 2 to 5 percent over 2006. That would represent a decline from the rate of growth in ad spending this year compared with 2005, which is expected to finish in the range of 3 to 6 percent. But it is not bad considering that 2007 will be missing two major events that help administer a hypodermic to ad budgets in even-numbered years: Olympics and national elections.

.........SNIP"

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/12/05/technology/05adco.html?_r=1&th&emc=th&oref=slogin