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carincross Donating Member (145 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-19-08 05:20 PM
Original message
Jim Cramer: Dow Could Drop 2000 points
Yesterday Chris Matthews interviewed Mad Money's Jim Cramer.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/22734052#22734052

About 2 minutes, 50 seconds into the interview Jim Cramer says the following:

"The stimulus package doesn’t do anything. … But there is an element – there is something I would urge all our candidates to think about and our Treasury Secretary. Which is that there are a group of insurance companies that insure all these bad mortgages. And I think they’re all about to go belly up and that will cause the Dow Jones to decline 2,000 points. They’ve got to be shut down and the insurance given to a new resolution trust. This is going to happen in maybe two, three weeks. It’s going to be in the front of every paper and no one in Washington is even willing to admit it. … This is MBIA and Ambac. … Remember Merrill wrote down a lot of stuff the other day and Citigroup. All these companies are relying on insurance to save them. The insurers don’t have enough money. There is also personal mortgage insurance – PMI is a company that does it – MGIC. … If these companies do not have the capital to make good, when they do fall - and I believe it is when – if the government does not have a plan in action you will not be able to open the stock market when they collapse. … No one is even talking about it, other than the New York State’s Superintendent of Insurance. … I have not heard a single politician mention the fact that these major insurers, who have insured $450B of mortgages, are all about to go under."

Supporting Jim Cramer was an article in yesterday's Wall Street Journal - Default Fears Unnerve Markets By SUSAN PULLIAM and SERENA NG. They describe how these "insurance companies" work:

"At the center of these concerns is a vast, barely regulated market in which banks, hedge funds and others trade insurance against debt defaults. This isn't like life insurance or homeowners' insurance, which states regulate closely. It consists of financial contracts called credit-default swaps, in which one party, for a price, assumes the risk that a bond or loan will go bad. This market is vast: about $45 trillion, a number comparable to all of the deposits in banks around the world. … If they default, everyone is supposed to settle up with each other, the way gamblers settle up with their bookies after a game."

It looks like we have a lot more to worry about than how to spend our $800 or $1600 dollars!
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MADem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-19-08 05:22 PM
Response to Original message
1. Good thing those new offices don't have windows that can open...
Otherwise, it could be "raining men" and not in a good way either.....

Penny stocks for everyone!
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NMDemDist2 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-19-08 05:23 PM
Response to Original message
2. yup I fugure the Dow will be back where it was when Chimpie took over
kinda karmic eh?
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bahrbearian Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-19-08 05:31 PM
Response to Original message
3. So they are going to be breaking Thumbs and Knees..
… If they default, everyone is supposed to settle up with each other, the way gamblers settle up with their bookies after a game."
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-19-08 05:32 PM
Response to Original message
4. We'd Be Lucky If It's Only 2000 Points
Although they would close the market if it looked like that.
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Yael Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-19-08 05:37 PM
Response to Original message
5. Cramer is unhinged more often than not.
I am not saying that he isn't on top of what is going on -- but the dramatics that he adds to it is more often than not over the top.

I'll take 75% of what he is predicting and chalk the other 25% up to histrionics.
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sendero Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-20-08 08:35 AM
Response to Reply #5
10. And often just plain wrong...
...but in this case he's not only right, he's also very late to the party.

This is exactly what is going to happen, Warren Buffet is going to pick up the still-viable muni side of the biz and the rest are all going to go bankrupt.

The fake veneer of "insurance" covering all of this bad debt is going to vanish in a puff of smoke. All the big players already understand this, so the effect on the markets is uncertain, is it already priced in or not?
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BadgerLaw2010 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-20-08 01:11 PM
Response to Reply #10
16. It is certainly not priced in. BK in those companies would lead to massive forced bond sales.
Basically, those companies guarantee AAA ratings, and there are a ton of institutions that cannot hold less than AAA paper.
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BadgerLaw2010 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-20-08 01:09 PM
Response to Reply #5
15. He's been pretty on the ball on understanding what's been happening with the mortgage mess.
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Bennyboy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-19-08 11:41 PM
Response to Original message
6. K&R....
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grasswire Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-20-08 12:36 AM
Response to Original message
7. is there a link for that WSJ article?
I hope so.
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mwb970 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-20-08 07:54 AM
Response to Reply #7
8. Here's the link.
http://news.google.com/news?hl=en&q=%22center+of+these+concerns%22+%22market+is+vast%22&um=1&ie=UTF-8&sa=N&tab=wn

Click on the link on this search result page. The "real" URL is subscription-only!
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Miss Authoritiva Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-20-08 09:12 AM
Response to Reply #8
11. Thanks for the link.
A very informative article that even I could understand.
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Daveparts Donating Member (854 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-20-08 08:14 AM
Response to Original message
9. I respect Cramer
only because he tries to be at least a little honest. He is honest about being a blood sucking capitalist. But he has the quality of an outsider let in to the party, he sees the disparities and the corruption and lack of concern for the system. So many of these pundits try to spin away the current problems, "No, the ships not sinking its disappearing behind the horizon.Buy more stock!" Cramer also had a rant about the management of Ambac should be going to jail for hiding the losses.

But don't forget the new kids on the block! Faux gives you the business, news! I shuttled between Bloomberg, CNBC and Faux as Citi reported their record 4th quarter losses. The lead story on Bloomberg was Citi on CNBC Citi and on Faux biz Wal-Mart to open neighborhood markets. So when the Ambac story broke Friday again it was the lead story on Bloomberg and CNBC on Faux, Members Only has a new line of jackets!It reminds me of the home shopping network with a stock ticker. They had an investment broker as a guest and he was asked the leading question, Since stock are down this far doesn't that make for a great opportunity to buy more?

Apparently this man hadn't been vetted properly as he began to explain, "If you're ten years or less from retirement then they need to get out now or the next five years might be a disaster for their portfolio" He was quickly hustled off never to be heard from again on Faux Biz News.
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mwb970 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-20-08 09:51 AM
Response to Reply #9
13. Has Fox Business News viewership reached six digits yet?
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girl gone mad Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-20-08 09:41 AM
Response to Original message
12. Just say no!
..to tax bailouts for billionaires!

Republicans need to practice what they preach in this case. Let the Free Markets correct themselves. Bailing out these bankers who made unwise decisions will only put us all in worse shape.
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Joanne98 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-20-08 10:09 AM
Response to Original message
14. I expect to hear constant crap like this, especially from Cramer!
Who CARES if the Dow drops 2000 points. Just think of it as a "economic restructering program" for the rich. Any little person dumb enough to have their money in the market right now deserves to go broke. But, if this is true, it would be a good time to buy put options on all the insurance companies, IF you could count on Washington staying out of it, as in bailing out the insurers. BUT it's probably a lie..look out PSEUDO-CRISIS.....

For years, there had been rumors that the international financial institutions had been dabbling in the art of "pseudo-crisis," as Williamson put it, in order to bend countries to their will, but it was difficult to prove. The most extensive testimony came from Davison Budhoo, an IMF staffer turned whistle-blower, who accused the organization of cooking the books in order to doom the economy of a poor but strong-willed country.

Budhoo was a Grenadian-born, London School of Economics-trained economist who stood out in Washington thanks to an unconventional approach to personal style: he let his hair stand on end, a la Albert Einstein, and preferred the windbreaker to the pinstripe suit. He had worked for the IMF for twelve years, where his job was designing structural adjustment programs for Africa, Latin America and his native Carribean. After the organization took its sharp right turn during the Reagan/Thatcher era, the independant-minded Budhoo felt increasingly ill at ease in his place of work. The fund was packed with zealous Chicago Boys under the leadership of its managing director, the staunch neoliberal Michel Camdessus. When Budhoo quit in 1988, he decided to devote himself to exposing the secrets of his former workplace. It began when he wrote a remarkable letter to Camdessus, adopting the j'accuse tone of Andre Gunder Frank's letters to Friedman a decade earlier.

Showing an enthusiasm for language rare for senior fund economists, the letter began: "Today I resigned from the staff of the International Monetary Fund after over twelve years, and after 1000 days of official Fund work in the field, hawking your medicine and your bag of tricks to governments and to peoples in Latin America and the Carribbean and in Africa. To me resignation is a priceless liberation, for with it I have taken the first big step to that place where I may hope to wash my hands of what in my mind's eye is the blood of millions of poor and starving peoples....The blood is so much, you know, it runs in rivers. It dries up, too; it cakes all over me; sometimes I feel that there is not enough soap in the whole world to cleanse me from the things that I did do in your name."

He then went on to build his case. Budhoo accused the fund of using statistics as "lethal" weapons. He exhaustively documented how, as a fund employee in the mid-eighties, he was involved in elaborate "statistical malpractices" to exaggerate the numbers in IMF reports on oil-rich Trinidad and Tobago in order to make the country look far less stable than it actually was. Budhoo contended that the IMF had more than doubled a crucial statistic measuring the labor costs in the country, making it appear highly unproductive-even though, as he had said, the fund had the correct information on hand. In another instance, he claimed that the fund "invented, literally out of the blue," huge unpaid government debts.

Those "gross irregularities," Which Budhoo claims were deliberate and not mere "sloppy calculations," were taken as fact by the financial markets, which promptly classified Trinidad as a bad risk and cut off its financing. The country's economic problems-triggered by a drop in the price of oil, its primary export-quickly became calamitous, and it was forced to beg the IMF for a bailout. The fund then demanded that it accept what Budhoo described as the IMF's "deadliest medicine": layoffs, wage cuts and the "whole gamut" of structural adjustment policies. He described the process as "deliberate blocking of an economic lifeline to the country through subterfuge" in order to see "Trinidad and Tobago destroyed economically first, and converted thereafter."

In his letter, Budhoo, who died in 2001, made it clear that his dispute was over more than the treatment of one country by a handful of officials. He characterized the IMF's entire program of structural adjustment as a form of mass torture in which "'screaming-in-pain governments and peoples are forced to bend on their knees before us, broken and terrified and disintegrating, and begging for a sliver of reasonableness and decency on our part. But we laugh cruelly in their face, and the torture goes on unabated."

After the letter was published, the government of Trinidad commissioned two independent studies to investigate the allegations and found that they were correct: the IMF had inflated and fabricated numbers, with tremendously damaging results for the country.

Even with this substantiation, however, Budhoo's explosive allegations disappeared virtually without a trace; Trinidad and Tobago is a collection of tiny islands off the coast of Venezuela, and unless its people storm the headquarters of the IMF on Nineteenth st, its complaints are unlikely to capture world attention. The letter was, however, turned into a play in 1996 called Mr. Budhoo's Letter of Resignation from the IMF (fifty years is enough), put on in a small theater in New York's East Village. The production received a surprisingly positive review in The New York Times, which praised its "uncommon creativity" and "inventive props." The short theater review was the only time Budhoo's name was ever mentioned in The New York Times.

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JackRiddler Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-20-08 03:30 PM
Response to Original message
17. Jim Cramer: Criminal liar who won't jump, needs to be defenestrated
And if he's saying there will be a 2000 point drop, I guess that means the market will bottom out at 2000!

Does anyone remember Jim Cramer's infamous rant on February 29th of 2000, in which he listed 10 stocks "you must buy today for his 'New World'"? They were SNVX, ARBA, ISLD, EXDS, INSP, INKT, MERQ, SNRA, VRSN and VRTS.

http://www.thestreet.com/funds/smarter/891820.html

Of those SNVX, ISLD, EXDS, INKT, SNRA and VRTS are no longer are listed under their original ticker symbols. Some were outright business failures, others were bought or merged in the collapse that followed - just a couple of months after Cramer's "buy buy buy" call.

Of the "survivors", ARBA traded for $800 back then. It now trades for $11. INSP traded for $1150. It now trades for $18.90. MERQ traded for about $90; it now is $51 (and has the ignobility of being the "best of the bad" on a total return basis!) VRSN traded for $238; it now sells for $37.88.

If you listened to Jim on 2/29/2000, you lost more than 90% of your money.

NINETY PERCENT!

Nor was he alone in his "less-than-correct" calls. In fact, the list of people who were calling for a meaningful decline in the markets in the major media could be counted on your fingers.

Yet almost without exception these people went unpunished for the hundreds of billions of dollars of investor losses that resulted DIRECTLY FROM THEIR SLANTED, BIASED, WILLFULLY-BLIND AND JUST PLAIN WRONG “ANALYSIS”!

Such it will be again, I’m sure.


From: http://market-ticker.denninger.net/2007/12/year-in-review-and-look-ahead.html
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AZgirl7 Donating Member (85 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-20-08 10:58 PM
Response to Original message
18. open eyes
Think of the timing of the new Faux Biz. They knew it was time to put out the big lie. As if the crediblity of their 'news' (read-opinion)show would have us flocking to watch. They should be outlawed! I respect Cramer's knowledge, but also, think about what his show is about. And think about where his focus has to be daily to prepare for it. The next big stock, not the big picture. I stopped watching him a year ago. I would be learning of the coming financial tsunami on the internet, then tune in to hear him talking about Avon's last quarter. Twilight Zone stuff. I read "America the Broke" 2+1/2 years ago and I panicked THEN! I began to think of all the Wall Street traders and house flippers like the people partying on Burbon Street the night before Katrina. Since I hear there is nothing in history to campare with our situation, old thinking and old fixes just won't work. Did Bush and Paulson look like deer in the headlights, or was it just my imagination?
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