Yepsen: Poll is big uh-oh for Gephardt (DesMoines Register)

Yepsen: Poll is big uh-oh for Gephardt

By DAVID YEPSEN
Register Political Columnist
08/03/2003

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Is Howard Dean on his way to the Democratic presidential nomination? Could be. Today's Iowa Poll of Democratic caucus-goers shows the former Vermont governor has moved into first place in Iowa, knocking Missouri Congressman Richard Gephardt from that long-held perch.

That's more great news for Dean, who's been enjoying a lot of that lately, and another hard blow to Gephardt, whose campaign seems flat. It's also bad news for Massachusetts Senator John Kerry, who is in third place. Not because he's running third here, but because of what a first-place Dean finish in Iowa is going to mean to Kerry's chances in New Hampshire.

Consider the scenario this poll suggests: Dean upsets Gephardt in Iowa. That could knock Gephardt out of the race. (He's already had trouble raising money, and an Iowa defeat means a rejection by the very people who elevated him to national stature in 1988.)

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Also, these polls have a way of missing newcomers to the caucus process. For example, I ran into a guy at a Dean rally recently who told me he was a Republican and had never been to a Democratic caucus but was going to re-register to caucus for Dean. Few polls detect these folks this early, yet we know the ability to attract such newcomers can make for surprise caucus-night winners. George McGovern in 1972 and Pat Robertson in 1988 are the best examples of candidates who mobilized new people to score surprise finishes.


http://desmoinesregister.com/opinion/stories/c5917686/21884420.html

run and there was Dean in my mailbox on the cover of Time and Newsweek and Boy does he Look Good!

I am so Proud of him as I imagine you are, too!

I'm going shopping @ the Co-op now and I'm taking my Magazines to show my friends and say .."see, this is who I've been talkin' about! :kick:

People are tired of Gephardt. How many times has he attempted to run for President? Who care about him? So I can see why his is flagging. I don't think Kerry has really made any extreme efforts in Iowa yet.

Understand, I'm rooting for Dean, but I'm not counting the chickens before they hatch. Kerry hasn't fully engaged in the campaigning in Iowa yet and that may change the entire course of how Iowans decide to vote.

Kerry better get "engaged" if he wants to make a good showing there. Frankly, I think Dean has a very solid start...but, things can always change in politics.