America's Fantastical Afghan Mission (new report out from the Pentagon)

America's Fantastical Afghan Mission
Posted by Michael Cohen

There's a new report out from the Pentagon on the current situation in Afghanistan. It does not make for easy reading . . . because it lays bare the fundamental contradictions and unrealistic assumptions that underpin the US effort in Afghanistan. It is truly a snapshot of precisely how incoherent and fantastical our mission in Afghanistan has become. Much of the press reporting from yesterday focused on this key takeaway:

"The overall assessment indicates that the population sympathizes with or supports the Afghan Government in 24% (29 of 121) of all Key Terrain and Area of Interest districts."

This is obviously of great concern and suggests precisely how difficult the challenge will be for the US to extend the legitimacy of the Kabul government, particularly in the areas where US operations are focused. As the report indicates, these operations are overwhelmingly occurring in the South and East of the country - and right there is a big part of the problem. ...

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Again, all of this contradicts any reason for optimism about the ability of the US to work with the Afghan officials in extending governance - particularly since the US has committed itself to begin troop withdrawals in a mere 14 months and particularly in the South and East where, as the report notes, the presence of foreign fighters only inflames the insurgency. But the report's flights of fancy on governance are nothing compared to its delusions on security:

"A March 2010 nationwide survey indicates that 52% of Afghans believe insurgents are the greatest source of insecurity, while only 1% believes the National Army/Police are primarily to blame. This perception provides an opportunity for the Afghan Government, with the support of the international community, to improve its legitimacy and enhance popular perceptions of the government."

Let's ignore for a moment that this represents an incredibly simplistic definition of how states achieve "legitimacy." For example, just because Afghans in Marjah believe the Taliban is the source of insecurity that doesn't mean they are more likely to view the government in Kabul as legitimate Indeed, the very fact that only 29 of 121 Areas of Interest or Key Terrain support the government would suggest that even though Afghans view the Taliban as the primary source of insecurity . . . it isn't having much impact on "popular perceptions" of the government. If anything, the exact opposite. Yet, it doesn't really matter, because as the report indicates, ISAF and the ANSF is unable to provide any sort of security anyway:

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http://www.democracyarsenal.org/2010/04/americas-fantastical-afghan-mission.html