Iraq: Devolution or Disintegration

Iraq: Devolution or Disintegration
Ivan Eland | May 11, 2010

Recently, Massoud Barzani, president of the northern Kurdish region in Iraq, bluntly declared that the American visions of a strongly unified Iraq were "bird dreams and wishes." Barzani then proceeded to heighten pressure for greater decentralization of the country and expanded Kurdish control over oil.

At the same time, Arab Sunnis, previously more inclined to keep Iraq together because their section of the country has few proven oil reserves, could very well resume their guerrilla war against the Shi'ite-led government. If the plurality the Sunni-backed Iraqiya bloc earned in the recent election is stolen from it by recount or disqualification of candidates, or if any new coalition government is established that leaves out the bloc, Sunnis could resume the insurgency. Already the Sunni Awakening movement, former guerillas the Americans paid off, is disillusioned by its electoral marginalization and broken promises by the Shi'ite-led regime to give its former fighters government jobs.

Meanwhile, most Shi'ite groups have also been receptive to creating a more decentralized country.

Although the Iraqi constitution creates a fairly decentralized state, the most worrisome development for Iraqi unity is Barzani's increasing demands. Barzani's electoral gains -- and because of Iraq's post-election political stalemate, his ability to be a king-maker in selecting Iraq's next prime minister -- make him and the Kurds more strident in their quest for autonomy, or maybe even independence, and to grab the ethnically-mixed but oil-rich city of Kirkuk. If civil war breaks out, which is entirely possible as, or after, American forces leave the country, it will probably start over this oil-saturated boundary line between Kurdistan and the Sunni Arab portion of Iraq.

Although the United States should have sponsored a conclave of all Iraqi ethno-sectarian groups to discuss decentralization before America lost much influence as a result of its projected troop withdrawal, this attempt to avert a likely civil war nevertheless still needs to be undertaken. The Kurds are demanding action under Article 140 of the Iraqi constitution, which lays out steps for a plebiscite to determine the trajectory of the northern portion of Iraq, including Kirkuk. If this referendum is conducted without such a conclave in advance, the result could be explosive.

Sooner or later, we're going to have to let go of it.

But the masters of the universe in Washington, DC always know better.

Hell, NO! Even with a massive war going on, the uppity Iraqis told them where to get off. Several times.

No,

Big Oil's Army (otherwise known as America's slave warriors) must pound the Iraqis into submission or go all the way to genocide. Big Oil has so decreed.

None of this signing contracts with Russia and China. None of this independence and granting of licenses and extraction royalties.

Big Oil wants it ALL!!!!!!