Will The End of Oil Mean The End of America?

no proposed "fix" has impressed me as the answer, the problem is too massive!

http://www.commondreams.org/views04/0301-12.htm

The world is quickly running out of oil. In the year 2000, global production stood at 76 Million Barrels per Day (MBD). By 2020, demand is forecast to reach 112 MBD, an increase of 47%. But additions to proven reserves have virtually stopped and it is clear that pumping at present rates is unsustainable. Estimates of the date of “peak global production” vary with some experts saying it already may have occurred as early as the year 2000. New Scientist magazine recently placed the year of peak production in 2004. Virtually all experts believe it will almost certainly occur before the end of this decade.

And the rate of depletion is accelerating. Imagine a production curve that rises slowly over 145 years—the time since oil was discovered in Pennsylvania in 1859. Over this time, the entire world shifted to oil as the foundation of industrial civilization. It invested over one hundreds trillion dollars in a physical infrastructure and an economic system run entirely on oil. But oil production is now at its peak and the right hand side of the curve is a virtual drop off. Known reserves are being drawn down at 4 times the rate of new discoveries.

The reason for the drop off is that not only have all the “big” discoveries already been made, the rate of consumption is increasing dramatically. Annual world energy use is up five times since 1945. Increases are now driven by massive developing countries—China, India, Brazil—growing and emulating first or at least second world consumption standards. Fixed supply. Stalled discoveries. Sharply increased consumption. This is the formula for global oil depletion within the next few decades.

The situation is especially critical in the US. With barely 4% of the world’s population, the US consumes 26% of the world’s energy. But the US produced only 9 MBD in 2000 while consuming 19 MBD. It made up the difference by importing 10 MBD, or 53% of its needs. By 2020, the US Department of Energy forecasts domestic demand will grow to 25 MBD but production will be down to 7 MBD. The daily shortfall of 18 MBD or 72% of needs, will all need to be imported.

I wonder where it goes next.

I wanted the new 300C or at least a Mustang GT. I could never drive a big truck as a personal car but a V8 rear wheel drive car is materialistic boy heaven. Saving the world would be more important then my material idolatry.

Its fear mongering as usual.
Russia has enormous unexplored reserves (wonder why we are in afghanistan) Iraq's production dropped because of neglect under Hussein - Brazil has large untapped reserves in the north east - England (north sea) and Finland still have large reserves.
Furthermore, the idea of hybrid cars is taking off well - Toyota and Honda are both selling theirs rapidly - that alone will reduce the amount of oil needed.
Hopefully when we get an intelligent person back in the white house well be able to develop other sources without kissing cheneys ass!

Oil.

nothing to see here, move along...

thanks for the tip :hi:

peace

Brazil and Russia are large, emerging economies.

Why would they give us oil for paper money?

and has a worthless currency - they need all the foreign currency they can get - of course theymight ask for euros instead but thats a different question.
Brazil has a large industry of alcohol driven cars and they sell a lot of their oil to other south american countries (argentina mostly)

In the face of scarcity, what do we have to offer?

Cheap labor? No.

Food? Net importer as of 2 yrs ago.

Energy? LOL

Energy technology? LOL

GM crops? Hmm, well they do require more oil-based pesticide and herbicide than normal crops.. so forget it.

Ummm.. Ummm.. Umm.... PASS!

Many lucky Americans will have nuclear powered Wal-Mart chemical refineries in their home towns, which will have many new job openings every year as older workers retire to be with Jesus.

and i dont see how that will be the case.

i do see a lot of commercials for exxons DEEP WATER drilling,
and i have to wonder...
why go through all the trouble of deep water drilling when theres just so much oil just laying around everywhere.
some strange oil promotions on tv lately though..

Check this out:
http://wolf.readinglitho.co.uk/mainpages/discoveries.html

We haven't discovered any major-major supply since the discovery peak around 1962.

are not only shrinking fast - they'll be negligible within ten years - they're by and large not for export.

Hybrid cars will make zero difference against rising demand in India and China. Literally zero. A drop in the ocean.

The fact is, any policy that doesn't involve a total switch to non-fossils within 10 years is massive economic negligence.

The earth will probably thrown an acey ducey right after Cheney craps out!

Look at the demand numbers, almost doubling by 2020. China is now building auto plants for the huge demand for automobiles in China.

Even with some new reserves, it's not a question of IF it's gonna happen but WHEN.

I really don't understand why some on DU insist on keeping their heads in the sand regarding this.

Therefore, no particular or easy fixes will present themselves.

We will have to re-think everything.

We know, deep down, that the addiction will kill us, and yet we keep doing it ...

At the moment we're wealthy, and we can afford the huge cost of switching our economy over to non-fossil sources. The costs are big, but not as big as some people imagine - we just need to switch basic domestic power supply, and then expand it.

Then, as petrochem prices rise, auto manufacturers will have to make electric or hydrogen cars because people won't be buying their other cars and if they have them will find them too expensive. Similarly with industry. It wil hit everyone at the same time, with similar consequences.

The investment needed is big, but not as big as the disaster that would result if we don't act now or soon.

And the Oil Peak bug is crawling, but it's crawling in a smaller area and it's started crawling into the past. That's unprecedented.

And the death sentence will be global warming (not an oil shortage). That's why banking on Brazillian reserves or whatever is perverse, it's hoping for more pollution.

"It wil hit everyone at the same time, with similar consequences."

I disagree there. Our oil use profile is nothing like other regions.

Oil running out, oil pick is another WMD story. How could you give credence to such phony studies. Do you know that fossil fuel representes what equate to an underground sea ? What surprises me is that we don't hear about huge wells being discovered every day in Sahara ? I would like to find out about the motivation behind such study .

even if new reserves are found, simply because the price of extraction will rise and the price of ensuring stable supply will rise. And new oil reserves are as far from infinite as you can get. It is economic negligence to put off the shift to non-fossil fuels.

Plus, burning oil damages the planet, fuelling disaster and poverty.

to hear about how much oil there is left, especially considering how we haven't come close to our oil field discovery rate in a while..

This is fear mongering propagated by bad science and bad economics.

BS #1: The article states, "The world is quickly running out of oil. In the year 2000, global production stood at 76 Million Barrels per Day (MBD). By 2020, demand is forecast to reach 112 MBD, an increase of 47%." First of all, a 47% gain in growth over 16 years is very slow growth. Secondly, projections like these are based on a historical pattern of usage. If oil prices rise (due to shortages) quantity demanded will simply fall (simple economics).

As oil reserves fall and economic consequences start occuring, there will be a concerted effort to find cheap alternatives for energy. There is no doubt, however, that the poorer aspects of society will be hurt much more than the rich... but that is nothing new... If gas keeps staying at $2.15 here much longer, I might have to give up my Crown Victoria for a Mini! :-P