Have Dean and the other Democrats written off Texas in the 2004 election?

I am a big Dean fan. But, I'm confused and a bit concerned.

Last night I watched his interview on "Larry King Live". For the most part, I liked what I saw and heard. Except when the "Texas ad" came up...Larry asked Dean something like (paraphrased),"You don't really expect to win Texas, do you?" Dean's response (paraphrased), "No, but, I expect to win the Democratic primary."

This morning I was listening to NBC's "Today Show". Matt Lauer was interviewing Howard Dean. Again, the "Texas ad" came up. Once again, Matt asked the same question (paraphrased), "Do you expect to win Texas?" Howard Dean's response was the same as with Larry King, "No, but, I expect to win the primary."

:wtf:

Did anyone else catch this?

I realize most party's nominees win the home state in the general election. (Exception: Al Gore not winning Tennessee in 2000.) And, there couldn't be anything more sweeter than the Dems taking Texas in the 2004 general election. In a national Democratic win, that would be the 'icing on the cake'!

But, why would Howard Dean concede Texas at this time? Have the other Democratic candidates expressed similar views?

To me, this is a HUGE mistake. Am I wrong? What do Texas DU'ers have to say?

:dem:

I think perhaps you are mixing apples and oranges. It's a two parter:

Does Dean hope to win the Texas Democratic primary?

He answered that he does.

Does Dean expect to win Texas' electoral votes in 2004?

He answered that he does not.

Why would he expect to win *'s home state? Remember, Delay, Perry, Bailey-Hutchinson; the state is clearly a GOP stronghold.

In '96 and '00 we had to BUY our own yard signs if we wanted one. What does that say about the National Party putting money and effort into Texas?

We carried Bexar County (San Antonio) for Clinton in '92 and felt we could have carried the entire state if we had more money. But we couldn't squeeze a dime more out of them.

There are more compelling opportunities than The Lone Star State. But, hey, if you all can door knock the state, raise respectable amounts of money, and poll well, then who knows?

If we even have a "prayer" there then we are winning 40+ states already.

I do think, though, that we might have a shot at the 23rd in West Texas. But otherwise the state is best conceeded to Bush.

I would rather flight for Louisiana before that.

as it's drawn right now. Charlie Jones may some inroads that Cuellar built on. But it's just a very good example of a Democratically drawn district that elects Democrats everywhere else, but reelects Republican Bonilla.

And, BTW, this district alone blows the GOP's entire argument about redistricting.

with hard work and dedication.

probably any of 20 different states. It's real tough to go knocking on doors in Brewster county which alone is bigger than any New England state.

In any event, if the Dems are ever going to win it, they have to carry the suburban and very GOP Northwest Bexar County. Cuellar won big most everywhere especially in Webb county. I pronounced Bonilla "toast" on election nite last year (I think I even posted something about it in GD) seeing no way he could pull it out. That is until after the Bexar county election fiasco was over a couple days later and Bonilla won Bexar County by 30,000 (if I remember right) and the election by like 5K or 7K.

NW Bexar County is what makes the 23rd a safe GOP district, in spite of the NW Democrats.

Based on what it seems this is probably what needs to be done.

1) Dems are going to have to find 60-65+% precincts with low voter registration figures compared to the voting age population.

2) They are going to have to register voters in those areas and get them out to vote.

3) They are going to have swing around maybe 7K-10K in Bexar County.

4) They will have to help the Hispanic parts of the district that have new arrivals become citizens.

and a good one.

I'm very, very familiar with the 23rd and all the counties in it as it fairly closely overlays (or used to) the 19th State Senatorial district.

And, God Bless Bob Dean, county chair of Reeves County!

Is someone credible going to run for the seat?

not the general.

come on, folks. Travis County will dictate the state's choice in the primary on Super Tuesday, just as it has for as long as Texas has been in the Super Tuesday. That's why the Dean ad's running here.

surrender any state. He also has a similar ad to TX running in NH and Boston (home of another candidate).

It's a realistic assumption that Texas will go "Bush" in 2004, but I'm glad Dean is campaigning in Texas and campaigning early because it raises the bar for the Texas republicans to have to respond to the ads, and it narrows the margin of defeat. DK will be in Austin this month and I plan on going to see him, too. Of course, Austin usually always goes Democrat. Our Texas democrats are shining across the nation, but it's amazing the spin the Repugs sell to the public here. They are publicly saying the the Dems being out of State protesting redistricting is going to cost the State millions in unmatched funds for other issues concerning children that are coming up in the very "special" session. AND a lot of the public is buying this crap. If the Democratic nominee could pull 40% in Texas, Bush might actually have a heart attach, but my God, that would make Dick president?

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=128&topic_id=4539&mesg_id=4539

Gore got 37.98% of the vote to Bush's 59.30%.

We don't have a prayer here and should focus on other states accordingly.

Think how cool it will be if it became an actual contest down there, so that Bush had to actually campaign in his own state? You know they expect a landslide there - it'll be reallll embarassing if it's not. Keep the faith, Texans. At the very least, make 'em work for it, dammit.

Also, in the last election, the Gore people - at the last minute - pulled all their ads from OH cuz they thought it was a lost cause. Instead it was very close and those ads could have made the difference.

Hang in there!

eileen

:toast:

I like your thinking! And, wouldn't it be wonderful if Bush lost Crawford...and ALL of Texas? :D


:dem:

Bush is going to have money to burn. Dean should more wisely spend his money on states that are a lot closer (and smaller). A 20% difference in Texas is lot more difficult, and expensive, to make up than a similar difference in a smaller state.

Yep I smell a change of wind my friends!!!

Even the Republicans are getting ticked!!!

Our country is falling apart and all the GOP has been doing is
playing "duck - duck - goose"

TEXAS.........Welcome back!!!!

there are a lot of dems in Texas. And more practical minded people than you would expect. And also a HELL of a lot of people who AREN'T from Texas these days.

I think he has a shot. It's turnout. If you get enough people who are pissed off at Bush to come out and actually vote, Bush can get creamed.

And if we can keep getting the message out, by election day of next year, Bush hopefully will be pleading to live in exile in France.

I see blue ..... blue ..... blue ....

When you "expect" something, you are assuming that it is a sure thing. That is a whole lot different then "not trying" and "hoping" to win.

Also, if he came out and said that he EXPECTED to win Texas.. that would signal that there was a "chance" that it could happen. Why signal something like that and get the GOP rushing to Texas to fix the leak?

I seen the Larry King interview and was impressed. He talked about energizing the base. Something that really needs some attention. As a Presidentual Canidate, that race is a main draw. Energizing the base can make a BIG difference in local politics.. bring in some NEW Democratic blood on the local level.. Another words.. GET DEMS ELECTED. All politics is local. Gota get in on the local level to turn things about. Soooo, he energizes them.. gets them excited about the elections.. turns them out to vote.. and he MIGHT win the state. However, in the process......

ALso, running ads now would introduce him to the general public. Alot of people are not happy with Bush. And that includes Republicans. Alot of people pick their candiates early and donate to them. After the donate, it's like betting on a horse.. they are in the game for the long haul. So, it would be a swift thing to do to orginize a "party" of sorts to raise money for canidates. Even if it is a dollar, it's funny how it works....

Howard Dean is energizing the American people and the Democratic party from the ground up! Politics is local...and, maybe we can win in 2004 because of it. I certainly hope so.

:dem:

In fact, if he drops out...the GOP will probably be so screwed that every state will be fair game!

But this is all very speculative. I can tell you that Georgia and Tennessee, two states I have lived in, are unlikely to be won even with a southerner on the ticket. This is why we need a new strategy for winning in the electoral college.

If we really want everyone's votes to count, then it shouldn't matter whether or not you get the most votes in a state, but how many votes you can get in each state. And this is why the electoral college is a crime against Democrats in states like Texas, especially when one considers that most of its Congressional districts elected Democrats!