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What will happen to Donald Rumsfeld as a result of the whole prison abuse issue?
The way I see it, there are three and a half options.
1) Bush can fire Rumsfeld. Not likely, in my opinion, because of political ramifications: it's a major admission of failure not just by some administration figure but by the President himself. Of course he can deliver rhetoric saying he feels sorry for the people who suffered, but actually following up and firing a powerful member of his cabinet (which he's only done once before) is a completely different issue.
2) Rumsfeld can resign. While this would seem to be the reasonable course of action politically, Rumsfeld is a powerful guy, not a rational one. I wonder if he would actually voluntarily leave his position as one of the most powerful policymakers in the Bush administration while it has a chance of being reelected (which, unfortunately, it does). This would still be an admission of failure, although it would not reflect so heavily on Bush the person as would being fired by Bush.
3) Rumsfeld can stay on, at least until the end of Bush's term. Doing so would maybe project confidence, but he's also becoming unpopular in Congress and the whole issue could continue to gather force and truly harm the administration politically. On the flip side, if Bush is reelected, the gamble pays off for Rumsfeld and he gets to stay on and be a powerful Secretary of Defense.
What happens? I say #2.
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