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still_one Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-07-04 10:12 AM
Original message
The jobs report was quite good
but in spite of the hype form the media, I think there is much skepticism.

Interest rates have been artificially controlled for the last two plus years, and when they reflect true market conditions I believe many are concerned that the economy will not be able to sustain it.

Gas prices went up 10 cents in 5 days where I live.

Time will tell, but I do not think this can be maintained, especially if gas continues to go up, and interest rates increase...
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NMDemDist2 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-07-04 10:13 AM
Response to Original message
1. no and no is a seasonal spike i think
the fall numbers will sink again
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Frodo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-07-04 10:17 AM
Response to Reply #1
4. The numbers are seasonally adjusted.
The unadjusted number was actually much higher.
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still_one Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-07-04 10:18 AM
Response to Reply #1
5. You do not understand what I am saying
Yes, the jobs report was good, but it was artifically created by the artificial interest rates.
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swag Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-07-04 10:22 AM
Response to Reply #5
8. You are absolutely right
and the Fed's reflationary policies will have negative impacts over the medium and long-term by continuing to exacerbate global imbalances and by driving what may become a period of prolonged "stagflation" in the U.S.

p.s. - Bush's irresponsible tax cuts had minimal if any job-creating effect.
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Frodo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-07-04 10:14 AM
Response to Original message
2. Talk about GAS going up.... look at MILK.
Up a buck a gallon at our WalMart yesterday (over about a week ago).

And we go through more milk than we do Gas in the Baggins household.

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lovedems Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-07-04 10:16 AM
Response to Reply #2
3. Same here.
Milk is the #1 drink in our house and the prices suck!
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Frodo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-07-04 10:20 AM
Response to Reply #3
6. Something about a shortage of the hormone they use
to boost production.

So bovine lactation has declined. The government raised the amount they pay the dair farmers by something like a quarter a gallon which raised the price to distributors etc etc etc.

Not good news. Much more of this and milk will represent something like a third of our grocery bill.
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lovedems Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-07-04 10:26 AM
Response to Reply #6
10. It will be like the natural gas industry
When in 2000 heating your home almost became a luxury rather then a neccesity because of the high prices.

Will milk become a luxury item? There are days (with our 4 boys) that we will go through more then a gallon of milk in one day. Our 3 year old will ONLY drink milk or water.
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LagaLover Donating Member (500 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-07-04 10:44 AM
Response to Reply #6
17. People are still drinking milk?
There is no reason for anyone, other than an infant, to drink milk anyway.
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Frodo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-07-04 12:52 PM
Response to Reply #17
23. Is the "laga" in "lagalover" a competitor of milk?
I've got three little kids and a pregnant wife. All have every reason to drink LOTS of milk. Plus I have at least 2-3 bowls of cereal a week (is there something else I should be putting on my granola?).

And "infants" (usually thought of as those under one year of age) are actually the only ones of us who should NOT be drinking milk. Well... cow's milk anyway.
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leesa Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-07-04 10:29 AM
Response to Reply #2
11. This is a GOP talking point.
Same faulty logic as talking points like "more people die in traffic accidents than the war".

Are you lost?
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Frodo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-07-04 10:37 AM
Response to Reply #11
15. ???? How?
How could it possibly be a "GOP talking point" that the price of a staple item that to many families is more critical than gas is rising MUCH faster than gas?

Please tell me in what way this helps the GOP? Or point me to that talking point?
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bicentennial_baby Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-07-04 12:58 PM
Response to Reply #11
25. Huh?
The price of a gallon of milk has gone up over a dollar in the past week here, now over $4.00. It's quite a valid point, imho.
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swag Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-07-04 10:20 AM
Response to Original message
7. The jobs report was quite good, but I have to suspect that it's
largely a regional phenom (there doesn't seem to be much, if any, job growth in the Pacific Northwest). Will it impact the election if the uptrend continues? Of course, but the impact of job-creation will be highly muted in comparison to the employment pictures impact in previous presidential elections.

An interesting note from a financial newsletter I subscribe to: Prof. Jeremy J. Siegel ("Stocks for the Long Run"), a Bush bull and a huge fan of the div and cap gains tax cuts, has been growing increasingly skeptical of the Admin's handling of Iraq, and this morning said that though some folks think the economy will bail Bush out, Siegel is not so sure.

This indicates to me that even Siegel may be having doubts about the wisdom of leaving these fools in office.
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Frodo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-07-04 10:34 AM
Response to Reply #7
14. "comparison to the employment pictures impact in previous.. elections"
This is actually what I fear most. People make the mistake of looking at the Clinton presidency as eight years of phenominal performance (and they were pretty good). But it was really his second term that had the greatest success.

If you compare the BushI stats in the year leading up to the election and Clinton's first term re-election year+ to the current situation you will not be happy with the results you discover.

Shrubs job numbers over the 12-18 months leading up to the election are little different from Clinton's (and in some ways are better). People ahve very short memories and care a lot more about the months leading up to the election than the entire four years.
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rumguy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-07-04 10:48 AM
Response to Reply #14
19. not much optimism out there
what we got is a bunch of shitty jobs without benefits...everyone knows that, except for soulless monsters like the bushbots...

and it's still below the 306,000 average per month the Bush administration predicted would occur if their latest tax cut package passed. And, still below that 320,00 per month they were predicting last December.
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Frodo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-07-04 11:04 AM
Response to Reply #19
21. Everyone "knows" that eh?
I guess we'll see. But I've heard this song too often from the other side and it didn't work THEN. It's pure sour grapes and not backed up by numbers.

Your last point is completely true. And also irrelevant because you can't sing it at the debates. Bush will get up and talk about 2.5Million new jobs in the preceeding 12 months and Kerry will win LOTS and LOTS of votes by saying "but you promised us 3.5Million!"???
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rumguy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-07-04 11:09 AM
Response to Reply #21
22. shit jobs without benefits everyone knows that
only the soulless heartless pig-like pukes hid their eyes from it

only those who are basically human monsters, pieces of total human filth try to hide that truth...

only the repigs who squeal like monsters as their pockets get lined off the backs of oridnary people like this jobs reports..

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Frodo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-07-04 12:54 PM
Response to Reply #22
24. Oh I see.
This is just an emptional thing for you, eh?

Not really a "fact based" argument there.
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radwriter0555 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-07-04 10:23 AM
Response to Original message
9. GM is reporting a 21% slump in sales for APRIL alone, on the sales of
their big vehicles...

this can't be a good thing.
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Warpy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-07-04 10:41 AM
Response to Reply #9
16. Heh, it's a GREAT thing
I long for the day when all these behemoths have been shipped to the third world to provide housing for the impoverished.

Oh, I drive a pickup truck, a 14 year old Ranger that I put gas in maybe every 3 months. I use it for large loads and long distances. My other car is an electric scooter, and it's a thrill a second to try to ride on streets with oversized king cab pickup trucks, momvans, and massive SUVs. I'll be thrilled when these things, which my sedan driving 80 something father calls those $)#!#@&&$# billboards, are all relegated to the scrapheap of massive ego and penis extender.
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callous taoboy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-07-04 11:00 AM
Response to Reply #16
20. What brand of scooter?
I've been riding my Vego SX600 to work all week. Total of 35 miles of no pollution or fossil fuel consumption.
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rumguy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-07-04 10:30 AM
Response to Original message
12. this economy is in the toilet and will stay that way for quite some time
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RUMMYisFROSTED Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-07-04 10:33 AM
Response to Original message
13. Redefinition of mfg. jobs.
Shortfall below projection.
Private sector employment.
Missing labor force.
Wages under pressure.
Etc.

http://www.eriposte.com/economy/indicators/bushjobloss.htm
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robbedvoter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-07-04 10:44 AM
Response to Original message
18. Robert Reich on Air America: crappy jobs, interests will rise and all
bets are off as people who bought home on variable interest won't be able to pay anymore.
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