What are the chances of a left-wing military coup?

What I mean is where the US military (Joint Chiefs?) decides that:

1. They were lied to about the purpose and reason for the Iraq war.
   
2. They were lied to about the purpose and reason for the Afghanistan war.
   
3. The current occupant of the White House (aka. Al's House) is there because the electoral process in 2000 was contaminated.
   
4. That the upcoming election is equally or more contaminated (BBV)
   
5. That it is time to say "woah, Nelly", temporarily seize power and hold fresh elections
   

Military is notoriously right-wing.

until he found the right mix that would agree with him.

Especially since the Joint Chiefs command absolutely zero troops.

...That I'm afraid is an oxymoron, unless you are talking slightly left of Attila the Hun.

Moderate right wing coup, still unlikely, but I'd say increasingly less so.

Look to history even that of our close neighbors south of the border. Military coups often make things worse. Military leadership is not democratic, nor would it be if they seized power. Military traditionally rules countries by force and brutality.

I think a nuclear war would happen first.

I think that if we arrived at a situation in which there was no longer a democratic republic, some forces in the military might consider asserting themselves in order to restore it though.

restore democracy.

Might take advantage of the situation to rule the roost, though.

I am only saying that it cannot be ruled out. In Portugal in 1974, the military was a very right-wing institution as a whole, but junior officers and some air force people managed to kick the fascists out and lead a democratic revolution.

There does need to be more ideological diversity in the officers' corps though. It's very important that the left have people in there.

people from the left into the officer corp?

That's how. Also, political work among the enlisted is very important. The progressives can join, or patriotic officers can be won over.

want nothing to do with the military. I agree we need a broader spectrum of political views in the armed forces, however.

NO ONE IS ABOVE THE LAW.

......i pledge to defend the constitution from enemies both foreign and domestic......

is that not part of the pledge our elected officials and military personnel take, what should the penalty be for violating that oath in such an egregious manner?

and thank the deity of your choice for that.

the last thing we need is a military coup of any kind.

flag-officers who've been talking about the need to "step in" to save the country. Right about now would be a good time.....

left of our democracy?

Id pay to watch Hannity Delay Oreilly get royal ass whippings.

Excellent question, and I disagree with most of the people who responded to your question.

But it depends on what you mean by "coup". If you mean generals sending troops to take over the white house and occupy radio stations, there is little chance. If you mean, will the more liberal elements in the establishment, including the military establishment, use "extra electoral" means to influence the outcome of the election, I believe that this is already happening. If you mean something like what the CIA and military did to Jimmy Carter, then yes, there probably is a coup is progress against Bush.

Look at the European establishment, for example. Both left and right wing establishment parties in Europe have decided that Bush is a dangerous incompetent. By refusing to help out militarily or financially, Europe is actually trying to help the Bush administration fail in Iraq. If Kerry wins in November, he won't even have to ask Nato to begin rotating in massive numbers of -- yes -- German and French troops to relieve the Americans.

Surprisingly, ironically, the oil companies also oppose Gulf War II. It was secondary oil industry companies, like Halliburton, who favored it. Real oil companies like political and price stability. Halliburton which does not produce oil, but constructs oil facilities, likes the destruction of oil fields so it can win contracts to rebuild. I believe that, despite what the Saudis tell the Bushistas about wanting lower gas prices to help with his re-election, they and the oil multinationals, terrified of Bush's smash mouth middle eastern policies, are goosing up oils prices to stoke public dissastisfaction, which will help ease the bull out of the china shop.

As for the intelligence community, laying the blame of 9/11 and missing WMDs on "bad intelligence" and the outing of Valery Plame basically has put the CIA in the pro-Kerry camp. Seymour Hersh, for example, reported that the entire Niger yellow cake fiasco was a prank by CIA agents to embarrass the Bushistas with their own gullibility. Whatever October surprise Bush has in store, there is a strong likelihood that mid level CIA professionals have their own October surprise in the works as well.

In foggy bottom, State is leaking like mad, both because of personal hatred of Rumsfeld by Powell, which has been transmitted as "attitude" down the chain of command, or because of the horror of diplomatic professionals of the shambles that Bush has made of the international system.

One more liberal establishment piece of the puzzle is likely to fall in place if the Bush poll numbers begin to rise: The rising Dow I believe reflects optimism about the likelihood of Bush losing. If polls begin to make it look like Bush will win, then the Dow will start to slide, reflecting Wall Street's dismay at third world level deficits and business instability caused by the Bush junta.

As for the military, do you think that the current prison abuse scandal happened by itself? A number of levels of mid tier military officers and enlisted men participated in the release of these pictures in what otherwise would have been a hushed up scandal blamed on "six stupid MPs." Not only won't the MPs take the fall, but it took many many mid level leaks -- eg of the Taguba report -- for Hersh to get this story.

Oh yeah -- did you notice who the first advertisers on Air America were? In addition to the usual low rent consumer products, a vast number of supposed public service announcements telling parents to help their kids with their school work. Did you catch who sponsored those psa's? The Army. Technically, the purpose of the Army stealthily advertising on Air America about patting your kids on the back will improve the skill level of future recruits, but mid level public affairs pentagon officers don't make the choice of subsidizing the country's first fledgling liberal talk radio network for such a ridiculously tenuous reason!

But the "military" will not support Kerry. The "brass" wants Bush re-elected. You'd think that with Iraq and all, they'd want Bush out, but bottom line -- the "brass" (flag and field grade officers) don't trust the Democrats when it comes to national defense.

I think your analysis is right on. I also think this is a potentially very dangerous situation. I think it is incumbent upon all of us to REMAIN ALERT to the possibility that very surprising things CAN HAPPEN VERY QUICKLY.

This is not "politics as usual"--and hasn't been since the selection of 2000.

Thanks for your remarks. I think it is important to realize just how much Bush has alienated parts of the establishment.

One thing the left does not do well in this country is think strategically about tactical (if not long term strategic) alliances with other parts of the political spectrum.

I was always amazed and impressed with the very sophisticated and very explicit analyses that Nelson Mandela and the ANC engaged in to try to pry capitalists away from the apartheid government in South Africa, while maintaining a critique of capitalism at the same time.

This election year is an excellent opportunity to forge a tactical alliance with parts of the establishment, not just with the usual groups -- unions, minorities, women -- and to get big parts of the establishment to think critically about how useless and dangerous war, imperialism and dependence on oil are. The Clinton administration's internationalist policy could have done this if he had not been targeted for destruction from day one by the right wing.

I sense so but would appreciate your POV.

Thanks.

IS going on right now if not an attempted counter-coup directed from within the military itself.

Surely you don't think the Taguba report and all that has followed from it just "happened." And why do you assume that a COUP must necessarily be militaristic and bloody, as opposed to the turning of public opinion and effectively thwarting policy?

Edit: I meant to post this in reply to the initial post. Oops.

It's not a counter-coup.

Sure. They just 'happened' to loose control of the cover-up. No one INTENDED to expose it. And, even if they did, it never occurred to them that there might be political CONSEQUENCES. Consequences that could hamstring an unelected neo-fascist cabal.

/sarcasm.

Edit: typo

All the "zero chance" posts are not taking account of how much this scandal has been promoted by the mid level officer corp.

Words ought to mean something. Influencing an election isn't a coup, it's politics.

Bush I loved to complain about Greenspan raising rates during the election season. Was that a 'coup'?

If this thread is about Bush getting fragged by the uniformed military, no shit. It's been happening for over a year.

PS Spellchek tried to turn 'fragged' into 'frigged', which I almost went along with because it tickled me. Perhaps 'fragged' only has one G in it.

To some extent, Kerry's focus on his Vietnam background, rallying verterans is a start in encouraging it. His comments about "European leaders" who prefer him also indicates he is aware of it, if not participating.

But I don't think Kerry will be very explicit about it or directly involved in it. He will not pull a Reagan/Bush type coup, because (1) he probably believes in strictly electoral democracy and (2) rationally speaking, if this informal coup goes forward without his participation and succeeds he has everything to gain without risking anything, while if he participates, he could be tarred by the Repubs as a traitor, etc.

But his Nam rhetoric is very interesting and subtle. The mid level military officers are also Vets. They believe in the Powell doctrine and generally like Powell. They were already pissed off by Rumsfeld's "transformation" doctrine before Iraq, and now the "lighter" Army has proved to be a disaster.

Nam will the the rhetoric through which Kerry will encourage the coup.

In your opinion, what would you say should be the role of Progressive Activists--such as supposedly inhabit DU--in helping this soft counter-insurgency along?

I think the role of progressives is to continue to solicit leaks, especially if they are in journalism.

Also, don't worry so much about dittoheads who will never vote for a democrat, but appeal to the John McCain types who don't like the domestic policy of democrats, but don't want to see the country or its military destroyed.

It's really about trying to build a consensus about what the last several years has taught us -- that we can disagree about tax cuts versus spending, but that deliberately bankrupting the government so it will be forced eventually to dismantle core social programs is beyond the pale of acceptable policy -- that we can disagree about strategic dependence on oil, but that trying to establish an American empire is beyond the pale of acceptable foreign policy.

At some point we have to take the discussion beyond those we agree with.

EVERYONE in the military is a "vet." I ask, because I'm trying to gage your expertise.

The military is not participating in a coup. The military is not enamored with Bush or Rummy, but they don't trust Kerry, yet. His remarks after Vietnam have a great many field grade officers VERY uncomfortable.

I was just using short hand, "vets" as in veterans of a war or a campaign, who may still be in the armed services; not in the general sense of veterans which encompasses all former members of the armed forces.

As far as expertise, I don't claim any with respect to the military, beyond being a news junkie. I do have some experience in foreign relations.

Here are a couple of items: Seymour Hersh has pretty conclusively reported that the yellow cake debacle was set up by disgruntled CIA officers. It also has been widely reported about the military that a generation of officers had been schooled in the Powell doctrine up until Bush and Rumsveld were installed, and the Iraq War completely violates the Powell doctrine. There is the matter of the leaks that created this current scandal, and all the opposition to the war in the Pentagon reported last year.

I can see the history books now.

"Saner heads prevailed"

But the CIA is increasingly frustrated with him blaming them for everything (9/11, Iraq)...

Look the CIA was the main cog in having Kennedy killed, especially when he canned Alan Dulles, et al. and attempted to splinter their powers.

Bush has angered the CIA in a similar way.

If you're looking at what part of the government might overthrow the current regime, look no further than CIA headquarters.

Rp

They have to stop brainwashing the soldiers, stop forcefeeding
them Rush Limpballs, stop equating Iraq with al Qaeda, and
so forth. The military brass could do that to undermine
support for Bush within the ranks. That would be nice.

...And it was pretty much a foregone conclusion. There is an awful lot coming to light these days, and somebody is driving that. Upthread, HamdenRice is dead on with that take on things.

About the only thing I differ on with him (her?) on is the thought that maybe this was delayed in coming rather than brought on by recent events.

Laura

I saw it on X-files years back! :-)

They may leak like a firehose, but they won't point the guns at the White House, at least nowhere in the near future.

nt

It's those who believe in their oath to support the Constitution of the United States versus those who don't. It seems those who don't are going to lose. These little turds might be surprised to discover they are parts of the BFEE George HW Bush calls "fodder units."

a right wing military coup to overthrow the 2000 bushgang right wing coup is a distinct possibility.

The military were on board for the coup of 2000, but now feel betrayed.