I was just reading Joshua Green's "Playing Dirty" in _The Atlantic_. It's a good read and I urge everyone to read it if they're unfamiliar with campaign propaganda--on either side.
http://www.theatlantic.com/cgi-bin/send.cgi?page=http://www.theatlantic.com/issues/2004/06/green.htmA section got me to asking the same question. The argument in the excerpt (below) is that the groundwork for a Sept/Oct "surprise" is laid in the spring or summer. So, we have the clues now or will have them and need to keep an eye out. After reading the excerpt, what might be the likely points of attack? Rove's strategy is to go for the strongest points, which would be the economy and Kerry's Viet Nam service.
Here's the excerpt:
Contrary to the popular impression that campaigns traffic mainly in sleaze and rumor (though this occurs too), these e-mails are almost always scrupulously sourced from the public record. The goal is not to spread untruths but to have journalists repeat a selective—and often deeply misleading—version of the truth. "We become a conduit," Comstock says. "We do the legwork for the reporter. Obviously, in doing it we tell a story from the Republican side."
Campaigns have become highly sophisticated at using such material to maximum effect. "It's a lot like a trial," Comstock explains. "The candidate gives you what you have to work with. You're piecing things together that tell a larger story." Lehane agrees that the first step is choosing a negative storyline to push and laying the groundwork by talking it up to beat reporters and editors. "The second step," he says, "is to catalogue a variety of stories you have that support this. You begin by planting some smaller stories so that you build a foundation or basis for the larger story you're going to want to have hitting in the fall."
Especially in a presidential election "you have to plant a lot of the seeds in the spring and the summer so that you can capitalize on it," Lehane says. "If you have a big story that's going to hit in the middle of September, middle of October, what you really want to do is build several things that come off of the story so that it's not just a one-day hit. If the story runs on the front page of a major paper, you also want to set it up so that it hits some of the television morning shows, and from there you want to have surrogates
out the next day, so that you get a second hit. On the third day, ideally, you have some additional information you've been holding back that you can feed into it another round of stories. On the fourth or fifth day you try to hold your candidate back from saying anything, so that eventually, when he does say something about the issue, you get another round of stories. If you do it effectively, you can basically wipe out a guy's entire week—he'll spend the entire week responding to a story that showed up on a Monday." In the heat of the campaign season each week is critical. Not only can a well-orchestrated hit knock an opponent off stride, it can solidify an impression that the many voters just tuning in to the election will carry into the voting booth."