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Edited on Sun May-16-04 05:12 AM by VolcanoJen
Fascinating stats from CNN and Bill Schneider... I'm sure most of us know the drill, but it's encouraging to read it again, in light of Bush's sinking approval ratings (42% in Saturday's Newsweek poll, 46% in Friday's CNN/Time poll, for example!).
Read and enjoy, my DU lovelies!!
Approval Ratings - MAY of Election Year
Presidents who went on to win reelection:
1972 - Nixon - 62% 1984 - Reagan - 54% 1996 - Clinton - 55%
Presidents who were defeated:
1976 - Ford - 47% 1980 - Carter - 38% 1992 - Bush I - 37%
Schneider went on to point out that in May, the incumbent presidents who were eventually defeated actually held sizeable leads over their challengers at this point in the race. (Ford in 1976 was the exception; he was pretty much doomed, and never elected in the first place, kind of like someone else we know!) This time around, the challenger, Kerry, is holding around a 5-point lead in most polls. Schneider says that the numbers, any way you shake them, do not bode well for Chimpy...
Choice For President - Defeated Incumbent Presidents
May 1976 Ford: 40% Carter: 53%
May 1980 Carter: 40% Reagan: 32%
May 1992 Bush I: 35% Clinton: 25% (even Ross Perot was leading Clinton at this point)
Choice For President - Incumbent Presidents Who Won Reelection
May 1972 Nixon: 53% McGovern: 34%
May 1984 Reagan: 53% Mondale: 43%
May 1996 Clinton: 49% Dole: 34%
ON EDIT: Source: CNN International; copied from my TV screen (thanks, Tivo!). Each poll cited was a Gallup Poll from that year.
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