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First, if you haven't already noticed, the state-level Ohio Democratic party isn't exactly in its healthiest possible condition. We haven't held any major state offices since the days of John Glenn, Howard Metzenbaum and Dick Celeste, more than a decade ago, and Republicans presently hold a very cushy majority over Democrats in the state legislature. Now, is all of this because Voinovich, Taft and DeWine are really that good? HA! Please don't make me laugh. There simply haven't been any Democratic candidates who could successfully build a statewide coalition. Case in point: Tim Hagan and his joke of an underfunded, under-supported gubernatorial run in 2002 against the perpetually inept lame duck Taft, who should have been handily whipped with a wet noodle by a blindfolded, hands-tied Hagan, into a landslide defeat.
Unfortunately, Hagan, like most of the recent state-level Democratic challengers in Ohio, simply didn't possess the gravitas, and perhaps the charisma, to rally the party together behind him. You'd think there'd be little excuse for that, seeing as how Democrats still dominate city government in all eight of Ohio's largest and most populated urban centers. Hagan should have had it easy, but he slacked off on building up his social network, and so he lost to an already established, ineptitude notwithstanding, Bob Taft.
Enter Jerry Springer, who has wasted no time in wowing dinner audiences of Democratic Party officials, and even banquet halls full of college students at Ohio's public universities. Yes, he's already got the charisma, which is a critically important quality of any successful candidate for high office. But he's also developing his social network, by building a coalition that will span Ohio's major cities and regions, and assist him, should he run for governor. This is where Hagan fell way short, and where Tony Celebreeze missed the mark. This, a statewide coalition of Democratic mayors and councilmen, college students and party supporters, is what will give Springer the edge in a multi-region state with a democratic majority of voters who aren't always motivated to make it to the polls.
In addition, Ohio Republicans, though generally moderate, have until now been as lock-step as their cousins around the US. Governor Taft, who has fallen out of favor with many people even within his own party for consistently demonstrating an insipid level of leadership, will face term limits in 2006, preventing him from campaigning for a third term. The Ohio GOP has long been aware of this fact, but hasn't yet ironed out the details as to who Taft's successor will be. Ohio Secretary of State, J. Kenneth Blackwell, a would be frontrunner for the 2006 GOP gubernatorial nomination, has already openly declared his interest in succeeding Taft, which would place him in the running to become Ohio's first elected African-American governor. A conservative among a fairly moderate-dominated party, however, Blackwell is already facing opposition from House Speaker Larry Householder, a Republican closely aligned with Gov. Taft who has apparently planned a $8.5 million campaign to destroy Blackwell's image over his effors to repeal a recent 1-cent statewide sales tax increase.
Although 2006 is still 2 years away, a split in GOP ranks now may leave that party divided, and the Ohio Dems with a critical opportunity to rally and take back the Governor's mansion. Unless the Republicans can settle early upon a viable candidate and build upon his or her good reputation, they may provide a more easily identifiable Jerry Springer with all the chance he needs to redevelop his own.
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