Is Kerry getting too high in the polls too soon???

Now wait a minute.. hear me out..

It's still 5 1/2 months till the election, but Kerry is getting unprecedented high poll numbers and Shrubya is going down faster than Linda Lovelace (gawd, I'm showing my age). But is this a good thing?

If you hit rock bottom, where can you go but up? And if you hit the peak, where can you go but down?

Granted, the worse Shrubya gets, the more tricks he pulls out of his sack and the less he has to work with later, this may not be a good thing either (see thread about him hitting the 'panic button').

I see the logic in what the Kerry campaign is doing, up till now they've basically played rope-a-dope with BushCo negative blitz and let them blow $65 million dollars. I'm sure that we'll see them refill the coffers soon enough and start again later, but now BushCo's gone to (attempting) to run on (instead of from) Shrubya's record.

I'm waiting with baited breath to see Kerry (and other 'non related' groups) kick into high gear and start whacking Shrubya back with every lie, flip-flop and bovine stuff statement they've done so far

(oh, I would pay good money to see a simple 30 second commercial with Shrubya's two statements about Osama Bin Laden, on Sept 12th he's "the number one priority" then 6 months later "he's not important" with a simple tag line... "It all depends on what 'flip-flopping' is...)

and start hitting them so hard/fast they can't even breathe.

But it still worries me about the poll numbers, call me paranoid if you with (ok, paranoidifyouwish), but I've been hearing some people saying "we've got it made!", "we can't lose!", "he's toast!"... and then the most troubling one... "at this rate, I won't even have to WORRY ABOUT VOTING". Yes, I've been doing my best to convince them otherwise...

OK.. Paranoia kicks in.

We know that Shrubya will do anything to win...

How about stacking the polls. Basically 'pugs lying their butts off and claiming Kerry to drive up his numbers... and installing a false confidence that gets people thinking that "it's a done deal" and in the process having a percentage of the Dem voters 'not have to worry'..

all it would take is a few percent to tip the scales.

Or am I being way to paranoid?

of BushCo's problems.

One day a boy and an old man were walking through a village with their donkey. The boy rode on the donkey and the old man walked.

As they went along they passed some people who remarked it was a shame the old man was walking and the boy was riding.

The man and the boy thought maybe the critics were right, so they changed positions.

Later they passed some people who remarked, "What a shame, he makes the little boy walk."

They decided they would both walk.

Soon they passed some more people who thought they were stupid to walk when they had a decent donkey to ride.

So they both rode the donkey.

Now they passed some people that shamed them by saying " how awful to put such a load on a poor donkey."

The boy and the man said they were probably right, so they decided to carry the donkey.

As they crossed the bridge, they lost their grip on the animal and he fell into the river and drowned.

The moral of the story?

If you try to please everyone, you might as well kiss your ass good-bye.

as you obviously are

Good one sangh0!

you worry too much!

we still have 5 months to go and we are in good position. Its better to remain cautiously optimistic. If we win, that would be awesome, if we lose...well then we'll get them in 2008. Keep hope alive :)

"if we lose...well then we'll get them in 2008."

dude, there is no choice here. we HAVE to win in 2004, no two ways about it!

I'm also realistic.

or at least there won't be any more elections by then.

*ush will destroy this country given another 4 years.

I don't see as Kerry has peaked yet, I think soon he will really start pulling up and away from chimp.

Bush is going down but Kerry isn't doing some major shoot through the roof. In fact, you still are dealing with numbers that can easily be within the margin of error or can be changed overnight if a plastic turkey is again paraded around. We have people starting to piss on Bush BUT we don't have people rushing to Kerry. Now it's Kerry's time from about convention on to sell himself to the American people. If he can pile like about 10 points on after that then we know he's making his connection to them. If he doesn't, then it's going to be a nail biter......people are wierd...if they don't feel they know Kerry they could just go out and vote Bush again. However, there is also the factor that many former pro-Bushers may just not go out and vote and Kerry win by default. We still have a big job ahead of us. We next need to see a real surge for Kerry to go along with Bush's fall. They now have to prefer Kerry and not just hate Bush.

The more the reality of consequence from BUSHCO policies hit home, the lower the rat-bastar will sink. His fall could be even more precipitous than his old man's.

Not too well, and not not well enough. Well.

I am comfortable with the way things are going. Not too comfortable, and not not comfortable enough. Comfortable.

I never thought I'd be saying that! I expected to be gripped by fear, as Bush rode a groundswell into a landslide and I had to move to Australia.

Things are good. Not too good, but not not good enough.

Are you starting to see a theme here? I'm not thinking this is an example of my best writing.

But I am serious. Things are just fine. Not too fine...

Ah, screw it.

I don't think we'll get too cocky.

Historically, though, we are ahead of the game. For the last two incumbents to lose (Carter and Bush I) their approval ratings were in the shitter at this juncture but they still lead the challenger.

Let's all just stay the course and keep pounding * any way you can.

and then to jail where he belongs. People are beginning to realize that they have been conned by the most vile group of religious, political and business con men ever assembled.

I saw how quickly the American voter can change their minds.

I really try to look at all the things against the shrub admin. now with as unbiased eye as I can. What would I think if I wasn't a political junkie, or a Dem. I still think most people don't pay attention to many stories and talking heads like we do. If they have a fairly secure job, and can afford to take care of their family, they won't rock the boat. If they are unemployed, or afraid they will be; if they can't afford anything but beans for dinner (forget hamberger, look what's happened to that!); if they are getting emails from their kid in Bagdad telling them how bad it is, they'll want change. I'm not sure it matters who the candidates are, they just want someone different.

Sure there are groups that are afraid of the overturn of Roe v Wade, and additional RW judges on the SCOTUS, and higher taxes, but there are just as many on the other side of these issues.

I can't ignore the polls, and neither can you, but I think we need to watch the job loss, job outsourcing, increased prices of staple stuff, and just what kind of jobs are being created. Those things will sink shrub, or let him swim for another 4 years.

a belief that kerry could actually win brings out more money his way since the deep pockets think it will buy access and they had better get aboard that train before it leaves the station without them on it.

one will have a good idea of whether or not the big boys are ready to ditch bush when you look at the way they contribute from here on in to the election day.

if you see large donors from the insurance, health care, energy, real estate, chemical & plastics industries move money into the coffers of the democrats, you know its all over for bush.

the money will have turned against him.

i wish this wasn't the sign that defines the way things go, i wish it wasn't this kind of world, but we don't live in grover's corners, new hampshire.

we live in a world where money talks.

It always seems to work, doesn't it. In crime, or politics.

Where are all these polls we hear about taken? I have always wondered. And If it's on my TV I don't believe it anyway. I believe Brownstar is further behind Kerry than what we are told.

Gallup is pretty good about that, most others are not.

Questions can be phrased to get the answer they're looking for.

ie: A recent one asked "did the prison photos change your mind about the Iraq war."

How do you answer that?

1. No it didn't because I thought it was wrong in the first place.
2. No, because I support Bush no matter what.
3. Yes, I hate it more now.
4. Yes, I was for it, but now I'm not.

You/re only given the option of yes or no.

That may not be the best example, bt you see where I'm going with this.

I've seen lots of questions like that. I listed my email with Gallup, so I get a poll about once a week. As I said, you see the questions and the aswers, and most are pretty straight forward. Sometimes you can find the questions from the other polsters on their web sites, some you can't.

I suspect the polsters and the media are working together to make sure this election remails "apparently" close through the election. If they don't, they loose too much nomey! If it's over this soon, who's going to pay attention, thus not ad $$'s.

....it's OK.

He'll still have fuel in the tank and fresh tires for when he makes his big push.

Aren't you the guy that started half a dozen McCain threads yesterday?

Think of it this way. What if the current polls showed that * had a massive lead? We on DU would all be angrily saying that the polls are being manipulated to give * an insurmountable lead making him look unbeatable, thereby discouraging donations to Kerry and artificially suppressing a Democratic turnout on Election Day.

But, in actuality, Kerry is ahead. So the above-stated advantages would apply to Kerry.

Please don't look at the glass as half-empty. Would you feel better if Kerry was 5, 10, 15 points behind?

So I heard.