From what I have seen from when the two way race is compared to when the poll question includes Nader is that it seems to only affect JK's poll number slightly. That Kerry is only loosing 1% or so from Nader being included. Granted 1% in FL would have won the election in 2000 but it could be worse.
I'm guessing he'll get more votes if Kerry has a substantial lead over Bush in October. People will feel more safe in giving Nader a protest vote if they think it won't hurt the chance of removing Bush.
And I figure about half of Nader's supporters will actually end up voting for Kerry. If Nader drops out, almost all will go to Kerry, the rest to various 3rd party niche candidates.
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