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It's only May, but Kerry camp smells victory

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NNN0LHI Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-23-04 12:32 PM
Original message
It's only May, but Kerry camp smells victory
Edited on Sun May-23-04 12:33 PM by NNN0LHI
http://www.timesdispatch.com/servlet/Satellite?pagename=RTD%2FMGArticle%2FRTD_BasicArticle&c=MGArticle&cid=1031775642468&path=!news!columnists&s=1045855935174

WASHINGTON Times have never been better for the Kerry campaign.

John Kerry's poll numbers are up, and so is his fund raising. He looks so much like a winner that his top campaign aides have started critiquing the Bush campaign and analyzing where Bush went wrong.

Whoa. It's only May. snip

"George Bush is weaker today than any incumbent in the last 50 years," Kerry's pollster, Mark Mellman, told political reporters at a press breakfast last week. "Nobody who has had approval ratings like George Bush has been re-elected." snip

Kerry's people are convinced that a president's approval rating in May can predict his showing in November. Since World War II, no president has won re-election whose approval rating at this point in the campaign was below 46 percent, Mellman said.

Bush's rating hit that figure this month.

more

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NMDemDist2 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-23-04 12:36 PM
Response to Original message
1. kick n/t
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charlyvi Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-23-04 12:37 PM
Response to Original message
2. Uh Oh
Are we getting Cocky???? Please say it ain't so! These times are so weird compared to the political background of other elections that it's hard to trust anything.
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MAlibdem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-23-04 12:42 PM
Response to Reply #2
6. No, just confident...
WE HAVE THE MO! Let's go out and win Congress too!
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charlyvi Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-23-04 12:45 PM
Response to Reply #6
8. Hope so MAlibdem....
It's hard to be optimistic in Alabama!!!
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swag Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-23-04 12:38 PM
Response to Original message
3. Certainly they should not get cocky about the "approval" stat
Past performance does not guarantee future returns, etc.

These times we live in are far too interesting to be crowing and gloating with months to go.
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DaveSZ Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-23-04 12:39 PM
Response to Reply #3
4. They still have to worry about Nader
No time to get cocky...
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Stuckinthebush Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-23-04 12:40 PM
Response to Original message
5. The one thing that makes me very nervous about all of this..
is that the media want a tight race because it is more interesting. Watch them turn on Kerry and try to prop up Bush so November will be a nail biter.

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so4real Donating Member (1 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-23-04 12:43 PM
Response to Original message
7. Remain humble
As stupid and ignorant as the American public is.I would hold my breath,I'm through letting the people of this country surprise me.
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Fla Dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-23-04 12:50 PM
Response to Reply #7
11. Never be humble, but not cocky. There's a difference between
being cocky and showing confidence. One of the things that appeals to the * kool-aid drinkers is *'s show of confidence. They see that as strength. What drive those who can't stand him crazy is his cockiness and smirky attitude, among a great many other things.
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NewJeffCT Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-23-04 02:04 PM
Response to Reply #7
18. welcome to DU
I agree - I'm not holding my breath, either. If Kerry gets out ahead, look for things that make Willie Horton look like a walk in the park.

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kaitykaity Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-23-04 02:08 PM
Response to Reply #7
20. Welcome to DU, so4real!

What a great first post!

:hi:

We've all felt like that at one time or another.
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newyawker99 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-23-04 03:59 PM
Response to Reply #7
25. Hi so4real!!
Welcome to DU!! :toast:
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senseandsensibility Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-23-04 12:46 PM
Response to Original message
9. Be sure to read the last sentence of the article
It warns that the Kerry camp may be giving * pointers by speaking too openly about the mistakes the other side is making. Obviously, they are too stupid to figure out their mistakes themselves;why help them?
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UTUSN Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-23-04 12:47 PM
Response to Original message
10. The Portents
These things keep gettin bandied about:

1) NYT recently had an item saying voters make up their minds 6 mos before November. That would be now.

2) Dick MORRIS told O'REILLY that "tied" polls now do NOT translate into tied results in November, that they translate into 58%KERRY, 32%Shrub.

3) NADER predicted to STEPANOPOULIS that the winner in Nov "won't be (Shrub)", besides also saying it wouldn't be HIM either. That would leave?

That said, MORRIS is wrong a lot, although somebody posted here that he DOES know polls. And everything could go down the drain with just one event of any kind of description. But for now? NO COMPLACENCY!!
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kentuck Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-23-04 01:01 PM
Response to Original message
12. Premature, in my opinion.....
The Iraqis do not hate each other as much as they hate us. Once we pull back, which is what Bush plans on doing, the casualties will drop significantly -which is good - but Bush will try to portray his retreat as some type of victory and the American media will have no problem painting it as positive that the Iraqis are running their own communities, without training wheels, and fewer Americans are getting killed. They will paint it as a victory of sorts for George W Bush just before the November election.

The truth will be that we have pulled back for the elections in November but the situation in Iraq will be a powderkeg ready to blow. Sooner or later, someone has to fill the power vacuum and the Shiites will try to do that but will be opposed by the Baathists and others. America could end up in the crossfire. However, Bush simply wants to get past November....
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izzie Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-23-04 01:28 PM
Response to Original message
13. I still like the day after polls, and those are the ones I believe.
Never spend money before it gets into your hands.
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AndyTiedye Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-23-04 01:33 PM
Response to Original message
14. We Must NOT Get Overconfident Like This!
Kerry isn't even far enough ahead to overcome Bush*'s built-in edge in the Electoral College,
let alone the amount of electoral fraud that we know about already.

After a month of uninterrupted horrible news for the administration,
Bush* is still high enough in the polls to win the election if it
were held today.

No real President has ever had the advantages that the usurper does:

1. The Republican advantage in the EC is now up to 7%

2. The TV networks are stumping for Bush* and will continue to do so until the election.
The equivalent of several *billion* dollars worth of free advertising.

3. The Catholic church is putting its full weight behind the Bush* reselection campaign.
They are more partisan now than they have ever been in the history of this country.
They are even refusing communion to Democrats now!
They join the Repub's usual motley collection of assorted fundies and holy rollers,
telling their flock to all vote for Bush*.

4. They still own Florida's 27 electoral votes, and are continuing to
disenfranchise likely Democratic voters to ensure that.

5. Walter O'Dell is still committed to deliver Ohio's 20 electoral
votes to Bush*, and clearly has the means to do so, since his company
makes the voting machinez, and we saw what his voting machinez can do
to "deliver" votes in the 2002 Georgia elections.
Georgia will be using the same machinez in the 2004 elections. The "Help America Vote Act" has
been used to get these machinez installed in many other states.
Some of them are "blue" states that we are counting on.

The trend is in the right direction, but
we need to get a lot farther ahead than this!





We have a lot to overcome between now an November.
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Feanorcurufinwe Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-23-04 02:13 PM
Response to Reply #14
21. Spreading the false perception of overconfidence isn't a bad idea
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billyskank Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-23-04 01:49 PM
Response to Original message
15. I can hear Harvey Keitel's voice
in my imagination, saying something about not sucking each other's you-know-whats just yet...
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charlyvi Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-23-04 01:53 PM
Response to Reply #15
17. BWAHAHAHAHA....
Good one.
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jburton Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-23-04 02:05 PM
Response to Reply #15
19. LOL
Edited on Sun May-23-04 02:06 PM by jburton
Kerry camp needs a Winston Wolf to keep perspective...



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chaska Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-23-04 01:53 PM
Response to Original message
16. I saw some elections expert guy on C-span recently....
that said that job approval rating is THE indicator to watch (Bush will lose if job approval rating and history is any indication).

He also said, and this is important, that elections are decided in the three months or so ninety days before the election. That means now. So everybody get out there and work for it.

I've heard several talking head types say that they believe that, whomever wins it, it will not be by a small percentage. They predict a big win for one or the other. If it's Bush, we're dead. Dead, people! Work!
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bushwakker Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-23-04 02:18 PM
Response to Original message
22. Bush is still a heavy favorite in my opinion
These people need to get a grip on reality. They need to fight like underdogs until the very end. I'll relax when I see AWOL taking that helicopter out of DC in Jan 2005. Until then I expect to lose - that's the only way to approach this.
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charlyvi Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-23-04 02:39 PM
Response to Reply #22
24. I agree...
We are LOSING UNTIL Kerry takes the oath of office.
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Selwynn Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-23-04 02:21 PM
Response to Original message
23. Take some advice from Han Solo -- "great kid. Don't get cocky..."
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