House 2004: Do we have any chance of winning?

I usually try to be optimistic about our chances, but I'm kind of down on the House today after I saw this. It seems to me that we give far too many Repuke incumbents passes, while they challenge every incumbent we have. We need a net of 13 seats to retake the House (we have 206 now, but Ralph Hall (DINO-TX) will vote Repuke for Speaker if we have a 218-217 majority). Right now I'm hard-pressed to identify 13 seats we can take over...let alone a decent margin over that to account for Repuke losses.

:-( :shrug: :-(

Your point is well taken, our chances are not good. But who knows what the politically climate will be like after 15 more months of war and recession? Maybe some of those 'safe' seats won't be as safe anymore.

Without a "wave", I really doubt we can take back the House.

but who would want 15 months of war and recession just for political gain?

the whitehouse. the Senate in my opinion is a big deal, we need it to preserve some sanity on the federal bench.

It is easier for the sitting Senators to keep their seats.
That is partially why I am for Clark. I think he will have really good coattails. A more liberal Democrat could win the White House. However, we need someone that will appeal to people in Texas, and the West coast. That is where we are far behind in the seats. We can pick up seats in Texas, New Mexico, Florida, Arizona, Colorado, California, Oregon, Washington, and hold onto seats as well.

The Repuks are going to try to hit us hard this time around.

:kick:
J4Clark

4 out of 5 of the House seats in that state are held by Democrats, and the one that isn't is in a district that takes up the rural Eastern part of the state and is as solidly Republican as Idaho or Utah.

Washington also has 3 Republicans, two of which are in solidly Republican districts, and one that is too entrenched of an incumbent, although we can easily take her seat once she leaves.

CA: That's been gerrymandered so that the delegation remains 33-20 Dem.

CO: I think CO-7 should be in play, but after the 2003 re-redistricting I don't know.

AZ: AZ-1 should be in play, but I don't know about any others.

FL: Our most promising state. Look for FL-5 to be in play, as may FL-10 (if vacant), FL-13 (maybe...but KKKatherine is still favored), and FL-16 (candidate?).

NM: NM-1 might be in play, but re-redistricting would be a big help here.

TX: Something tells me that we're probably not going to get more than our current 17 seats. Maybe TX-23 would be a possible pick-up.

There's no way Ralph Hall should be counted as a Democrat.

Katherine Harris has been having a difficulties at her local town meetings. I feel that any (D) that runs against her is going to win by a landslide.

it was gerrymandered specifically for her.

No, unless you consider about 15 states to be a 'victory.'

With the attitudes around here toward the South, you know the answer to your question already.

There is NO chance for a party of New Englanders that demeans Southerners to win in any border or Southern state.

In fact, we are going to need a "big tent" if we ever want to win back the House. If that means embracing culturally conservative but economically liberal Southern Dems who I don't agree with on everything, so be it...it's worth it to retake the House.

and I'm certain that the vast majority of people who vote in the south don't. And therefore the possibility of us losing elections there because of people here bashing southern racists and idiots who can't get over the Civil War is very very low.

I don't think that what we say really would affect the elections in the south. There would be a problem if someone like a John Kerry or a Nancy Pelosi said anti-southern things in public, but that isn't happening.

Well, I guess we technically have a chance. Anything is possible. But, it is very unlikely. 13 seats is just too much and I would even want to have more seats to be certain we can have control of the House. Ken Lucas is a risk for switching parties. So is Stenholm, Taylor, and maybe even Rodney Alexander. They don't really like Pelosi since she is so liberal and I would be very worried that some of them might leave. It seems like Iowa, New Mexico, Connecticut, Arizona, Colorado, Alabama, Florida, Kentucky, Indiana, Minnesota, Georgia and Pennsylvania all have at least one republican seat that we could pick up. But, we would have to win almost all of them to take back control.

if Democrats win a convincing victory in the election and we can have some upsets like the one we had in December in Louisiana. But if it is a close election (as is likely) I would say NO

This is one of the problems.
Last time, the Democrats didn't even bother to run someone in WI-5. That sent the message that we've given up on the district, that it's Sensenbrenner's for life, and whatever annointed successor he chooses after that.

This year, there are two candidates in that district. Both are political outsiders. Neither has made a run for any substantial public office before. It's depressing that only the outsiders are seeing Sensenbrenner as worth taking on.

But even if it's an uphill battle, even if we're tilting at windmills, we must charge ahead. Declare someone unbeatable and he or she automatically becomes so.