who will be the 08 GOP nominee? Whether or not Bush is beat in 04?

so 2 questions, if bush is defeated in 04, will he run again in 08, and who will be the GOP nominee in 08 if you had to bet on it?

1. no, he won't run again
2. tough to say. Pataki and Rudy are possibilities, Bill Frist has said he's interested in running. I'm not betting on Jeb though, American won't take another Bush after what the first two did.

One of the institutional flaws of the Republican party is that it almost always anoints an heir apparent well in advance and that chosen one very rarely is unseated by an insurgent candidate.

Since the end of WW2, only Eisenhower and Goldwater were not the presumptive nominees at least several years in advance.

This is to our advantage. Just as the GOP nominated Dole in '96 while knowing full well he could not win the election, they will probably be unable to stop Jeb from being the chosen heir for '08. If Dubya wins in '04, the Busheviks will assume they have the right to continue the dynasty. If he loses, they will push Jeb anyway, thinking he is needed to redeem the loss.

If by some miracle, justice should prevail and the whole clan is behind bars, then I would think they would go to one of the other governors.

I really don't think Bill Frist has a big future ahead of him.

he can't do anything besides suck up, there's no way he could be a leader.

I'm sure he'll be at least considered for a future presidential run, because of the "good-looking" and "I used to be a Democrat but then I saw the light" factors, whether or not he can lead.

Bush was a governor, albeit a horrible one, but your average sheep will she being a crappy governor as more experience than a senator who just votes however his owners tell him too.

Hagel's far too much of a maverick to be the Repuke nominee and Norm is a former Democrat (turned hard right conservative) who has trouble winning elections. He nearly lost to Fritz Mondale and did lose to Jesse Ventura.

Just guessing that a Western Gov who managed to avoid the deficits that most states have is a good bet. He's also done in 2006 and barred from another term so he'd have the time to run like Dean has now.

Normally the GOP candidate is someone who has run before but Bush just had so damn much money and the Bush name he just cruised in. I could see McCain giving it another shot and he'd have a chance. I've noticed that he's been much less maverick and much more "team player" lately so maybe that fix is in.

1980, 1984, 1988, 1992, 2000, and 2004, all had (will have) a Bush on the Presidential Ticket. They are not going to stop now, unless they know defeat is certain as in 1996.

If Bush loses or not in 04' Jeb could be the nominee in 08' if they think they have a good shot.

If they don't they will select another retiring, well liked moderate, to lose in 08' against the Democratic nominee. Someone like Elizabeth Dole, or the Governor of Michigan.

One thing the Bush's don't do is run against an incumbant that looks like they have a chance at winning. Incumbants are tough to beat.

Jeb would have the same special interests, party leaders, advisors, and money backing him as they did for his daddy and brother.

He also has name recognition. Remember how popular McCain was, yet he could not win the nomination.

The Republican Party doesn't elect its' nominees, it appoints them.

The Bush's are a dynasty.Prescott Bush set it all up. First his son, then his son, then his other son, and then one of the Son's son, probably George Prescott Bush, the son of Jebby. Next, who knows. But you can imagine ong decades of wars between the Bush's and Clinton forces for most of our life times.

:kick:
J4Clark

never be discounted. I think those three are beeing groomed to cover various scenarios. If the economy goes to the dogs and people start carring about class alot, Ridge's humble background will play well. If Edwards is president, I think Frist is obviously designed to run against him. If W's approval ratings aren't too bad, Jeb will run.

So the Repukes would never nominate him in the near future.
Frist, yes, I could see him winning the GOP nomination in a free election. But the Repukes don't have free elections. If the Repukes have a chance at winning they will pick a Bush. If they don't have a chance, they would not waste a strong ranking Repuke like Frist. They would put Frist on the bottom of the ticket for his personality. He is a Doctor, heart surgeon, and has saved lives in DC on occasion. Many people like him. But I don't, I think he is a bigot.

:kick:
J4Clark

Total asshole,thus, in-a-walk!

If George W. loses in 2004, he won't run again.

The five most likely candidates:

1. Jeb Bush
Though he denies he wants in the race, he's positioning himself for it. He's the natural frontrunner for the Republicans and has instant name recognition. If he runs, he'll win.

2. Bill Frist
He's got name recognition and a built-in fundraising machine, but Repukes don't generally like him.

3. Tom Ridge
He's a popular former governor of a state Repukes wish they could win (Pennsylvania). He may be too moderate or too invisible at this point to win.

4. Mitt Romney
A moderate governor of Massachusetts, he'll run, but lose the nomination. Repukes don't nominate New Englanders (and if they did, it would be Judd Gregg running).

5. Rudy or George Pataki
Both are too moderate to win a primary. If one of wins, it's Rudy and that's because Jeb isn't running.

Additionally, don't count out the ultra conservative hate mongers (Santorum, DeLay, Perdue, Ashcroft). One will probably consider running.

none of them have a snowball's chance in hell. DeLay and Ashcroft would have one hell of a time even winning the base states.

What if he loses his U.S. Senate seat in 2006? How could he make a credible run for the presidency?