Could Clark win Arkansas?

If General Wesley Clark were nominated to be the Democratic presidential candidate, does anyone believe he could beat Bush without Florida? He would have to win all the Gore states + his home state of Arkansas, correct? Furthermore, I believe Clark could put Florida into play regardless. I believe the senior citizens who live in the southern portion of the state would really go for him. A Clark-Dean ticket could shore up the Gore states + Arkansas IMO, which = victory. But a Clark-Graham ticket could leave some areas of the NE vulnerable, while putting Florida into play. It is a double-edged sword. Which do you see as the best strategy?

but don't we need the Gore states +2? Because of the 2000 census, "blue states" lost a total of 7 electoral votes and obviously the "red states" gained 7. So, I think we need more than 1 state, of course, this also all depends on the state we add...

Matthew

Your thoughts?

I'd much prefer Clark/Graham however...

Matthew

it's a little too close for comfort.

states like NM or PA will go. It's too risky to totally count on Gore's states. btw, did Gore win Maine? If not, I would think Dean could definitely put that into play.

Wash.
Ore.
Ca.
NM.
Minn.
Iowa
Wisc.
Ill.
Mich.
D.C.
Penn.
Del.
NJ
NY
Ver.
Mass.
R.I.
Maine
Conn.

Oops...and Hawaii!

Im blind :)

although it went from 8 to 7 EV due to reapportionment.

Gore got Conn. and Hawaii but not NH.

Sorry!

Matthew

After redistricting...
Maine At Large (2 EV): Gore, 49%-44%
Maine CD 1 (1 EV): Gore, 51%-43%
Maine CD 2 (1 EV): Gore, 47%-46%

Corrected...

Wash. - 11
Ore. - 7
Ca. - 55
N.M. - 5
Minn. - 10
Iowa - 7
Wisc. - 10
Ill. - 21
Mich. - 17
D.C. - 3
Maryland - 10
Del. - 3
N.J. - 15
Penn. - 21
Conn. - 7
RI - 4
NY - 31
Mass. - 12
Vermont - 3
Maine - 4
Hawaii - 4

Total of Gore states in 2004: 260


Matthew

VT-3...for a total of 260 EV.

is 279.

Matthew

Gore and Bush were practically in a dead heat. I have no idea how Maine will go in 2004 hopefully all those Green votes will go for the as yet unnamed democratic canidate.

I think Clark would make a strong candidate because he would have a really good shot at carrying AR (6), FL (27), and TN (11).

What a list of candidates! We need a Southerner for sure. When Clinton and Gore ran, we had two Southerners. I'm for whoever can beat Shrub. Everyone of the dems is so superior to Bush, but not all of them can beat him. I will vote for anyone or anything against that no-brain loser, but we need someone who will tell it like it is.

He has a lot of respect state wide and Arkansas as whole is still a Democratic state...and he has the luck already being criticized by the AR Democrat-Gazette editorial page, quite possibly the worst and the most conservative editorial page in the country. Clinton lived nine political lives based on having wack-job enemies on that editorial page. If I'm running for office, I know that I want that editorial page against me.

Clark would easily take the east, south and central (Little Rock) area of the state. The northwest section of the state is heavily Republican, but has been put into play by Democrats recently by Sen. Pryor who damn near beat Tim Hutchinson in the 3rd Congressional District

If he's the nominee, VP nominee, or future senior cabinet official, I hope he worships Arkansas and stumps for the Democratic ticket. Arkansas is definitely winnable in 2004.

and still lives here.

In Arkansas, that goes a loooooong way.

This is anecdotal, but the older relatives have been complaining about the direction of the Medicare system under Bush since last year. I also suspect that Clark might neutralize some of the Republican military communities in the state. If he were the nominee and I were his campaign manager I would visit that state often and have a meticulously organized get-out-the-vote and vote monitoring brigade.

I have a gut feeling that other red states might be winnable for him, mainly West Virginia and Ohio. Is any of the Souros funding going into either of these states?

I hope he enters.

If they count all the votes this time.

All of the cliffhangers and "should be Dem" states would go to Clark. I really think he is that strong. He transcends his state of origin by being a national figure. I'm personally hoping for a Clark/Edwards ticket.

I am a pretty strong Edwards supporter right now, but if Clark lives up to his hype I am extremely comfortable with either combination of the two. I very much like the direction of Edwards' campaign and I wonder where Clark will fall in.

*shallow alert*
And they'd be the best looking ticket in history. Creepy, small eyed Bush and Cheney would look very bad in comparison--before the talking even started.

will be Clark/Granholm, '08, after the Hatch constitutional amendment goes through and Vice President Lautenberg announces his retirement.

Hey, we need something for both the guys and the girls, right?

:bounce:

I'd be up for a lady on the ticket too. Equal opportunity drooling and all that!

"Equal opportunity drooling." I'm all for that!

(along with equal opportunity in general, of course)

bushco has been very poor on agricultural policy. Add to that a personal friendship that Clark has with Lugar and iirc Hegel. While they may not campaign for him, considering that both of these guys have been openly critical of bush, they will be very hard pressed to campaign against him.

Florida is very doable for Clark. The military vote extends beyond the immediate families, and will at least split 50-50 or lean Clark. Clark is known in the ranks as one of the brass who made it a point to address the rank and file issues. Plus, he remembers the names of anyone who has ever served with him.

I was just in West Va and hanging with some repubs., who are very unhappy about mountain top removal. Clark was an easy sell; these are professionals_lawyers and doctors_who are ready to jump the kingboys ship. They just need they right candidate. The most reluctant was a liberal Dem who was hesitant because of the military connection. I assured him that I am still the flaming liberal I've always been, and I am ready to rock the vote.

where ya been? I guess you saw that letters are flooding the draft sites after the Wolf show? If not, check the link in the other Clark thread. Extremely impressive!

I went camping...or one might think of it as: voluntarily living without power.

Great about the letters. I'm really worried about begging Clark to enter this fray. The first thing Rove will do will be to belittle Clark's accomplishments. Next they will try to degrade his record. No one who has taken four bullets while serving his country should have to put up with the chickenshits' lies. Clark sense of honor might prove his weakness. Does he know how criminal his opposition will be? Slobby doesn't hold a candle to our current regime.

...perhaps in Arkansas. I think Clark would be very competetive in West Virginia and Kentucky. He might even be competive in Ohio as he is sort of a
John Glenn type of figure...moderate career military guy who is also a Dem.

My God .. Wesley is from here, grew up here, graduated from little rock hall high and got his west point nomination from an arkansas congressman. And, of course, he lives here now.

....I can see Clark reassembling the Clinton electoral votes ...picking up the states Clinton won. Its do-able.

I was also traveling in Ohio. Of all the states I spent time in, nothing felt more red than Ohio. Gore didn't carry the state, and I'm not sure the chances are good for anyone in 2004. It was always strange...a labor state that voted repub. Go figure.

No, PA felt red too. Although I spent most of my time in the northern and rural part of state. Gore did carry PA, so that one worries me.

It's become pretty obvious that Graham won't deliver Florida, as his poll #'s have plummeted.

So my preference for a Dean VP became Clark.
They'd deliver Gore's + New Hampshire + Arkansas = 270EVs exactly.

I also wouldn't mind a Clark-Dean ticket.

edit: also keep in mind that Clark can campaign with Clinton on Arkansas.. something Al Gore was more wary of.

And if I won the nomination, I would target Arkansas, Louisiana, Tennessee and Florida. I would test the waters in Virginia, North Carolina and Georgia, and let Bush have the rest of the South ('Bama, Miss., SC and Texas).