Looks like we need anti-recall activists on DU 24/7 to combat propaganda

If we are to make sure threads like a certain one enticing Davis to resign which will suppress the DEM vote don't succeed...then perhaps we need to take shifts on DU between now and the 7 of October and combat these manipulations.

Anyone game for it?

i'll be working again next week. so evenings and weekends are okay for me. the old duty roster...

I believe in the big picture scenerio ....as followed:

If Californians vote NO on the recall and Yes to Cruz.... then does that express validation for the recall? Wasn't the recall concieved by the republicans as a "legal" option to revisit a legitimate election?

I think, in my opinion, that the recall is another version of the Florida 2000 election. The republican rhetoric is effective once again.... If one votes for No on the recall and Yes to Cruz then that indeed is support to the repugs.

I think the only way to show respect for the election process is to just vote No to the recall. Davis won the election.....The recall is a political contamination to our democracy....California can step up to the plate and support our democracy or feed the wolves.

This is a real election, not a game. What you suggest is the equivalent of picking up your marbles and running home because you don't like the rules in effect in your friend's house. All that accomplishes is taking YOU out of the game; it does not give you any kind of victory.

If one votes for No on the recall and Yes to Cruz then that indeed is support to the repugs.

Sorry, I see that assessment as illogical. Everyone is playing under one set of rules that are defined in the state Constitution and Elections Code. You're not showing any disloyalty to Davis or the Democrats or the law or anything by voting NO on the recall then selecting the alternate candidate of your choice from the list of 135 names on the second question. The most logical choice IMO for a Democrat is Bustamante.

not opposing ideas. It is called INSURANCE.

And then change this damn recall law.

Then call your Democratic Congressmember and tell them to have Davis resign. A The 2004 Democratic nominee will have to campaign in California losing money, time, and resources keeping that state. That is dumb, the time needs to be spent in battleground states instead.

:kick:
J4Clark

state...quite trying to overthrow the governor of mine with a strategy that will SUPRESS the Dem vote.

or they'll be energized by it. I don't see why Davis would need to resign.

democratic.

The winner of this election could win with as little as 6% of the vote, and the turnout is going to be really low. I fail to see how that's Democratic. The last election they had for governor was way more democratic.

If Davis doesn't resign, then more people will show up to vote for the recall. Polls show this. In the last campaign, only about 45% of people voted or cared. This time 74% of people say they are interested and will vote.

:kick:
J4Clark

YOUR post shows how painfully out of touch REALPOLITIK advocates are with REALITY.

74% KNOW about it because it's a media circus. But, that very strategy -- make it a media circus -- will make people think it isn't important. There will be nothing at stake.

This is why Democrats wanted to wait for an election with more things on the ballot. They WANT high turnout, and they aren't going to get it.

in Cali.

If Democrats are so outnumbering Republicans, why is Davis losing?

Who is less likely to vote if Davis is already gone. Independants that are voting for the Recall to get Davis out, or Democrats that are pissed off at the Republicans for trying to take over the state?

:kick:
J4Clark

No disagreement on that. Be that as it may, there is a divisive ballot proposition sponsored by Ward Connerly scheduled to be on the ballot that will still intrigue repubs.

Independents made up approximately 9% of the vote IIRC last election. While it won't hurt to have them stay home, the margin of Repubs in the state is quite large. Their party was nearly DEAD in California when the began...THEY WILL GO VOTE AGAIN BECAUSE THEY CAN.

What part of low turnouts favoring Republicans don't you understand?

if they won't stage another recall in 12 or 15 months.

And if they win, I would guess they will start staging them across the countries since many states are vulnerable due to the poor economy and the tax cuts/shifts that have left states with higher liabilities but lower revenues. I believe i read that there is already a small scale (GOP fueled) effort beginning in Wisconsin.

Ok, basic math.

If Democrats are 3 million in California and Repukes are 2 million.

The 3 million Democrats are not voting to save Davis's ass, they are voting to keep the Repukes out. 25% of Democrats are voting for the recall. So obviously, it is Davis that is the driving the independants and Democrats to vote for Recall.

If you remove Davis. The independants are no longer interested in the election.

Independants DON'T care is a Repuke or a Democrat wins, just that Davis is gone.

So Remove Davis, and the independants stay home.

That leaves the race between the Democrats vs, the Repukes.

How has more votes? The Democrats. SO remove the independansts and the Democrats win. Pretty simple math.

Here in simple form.

Vote for the Recall with Davis.

Democrats 13%= 750,000
Independants 50%= 2 million
Republican 95% = 2 million

4.75 million votes for the recall. out of 8 million votes.


Vote for Recall without Davis.

Democrats 4% = 300,000
Independants 15%=1 million votes
Repukes 95% = 2 million

3.3 million votes out of 7.5 million

Vote against Recall without Davis:

Democrats 95% = 2 million
Independants 85% 1,750,000
Repukes 5% 200,000

4 million out of 7.5 million votes million votes.



:kick:
J4Clark

FATAL ASSUMPTION.

how do you get those percentages under the different conditions - that show turn out and way they vote? Without basing those numbers on something they appear to have been selected to "Fit" a theory.

Seem not to be factoring in the fatigue and/or fear factor. In the nineties suddenly the fear factor would change the dynamics of a vote at the end (think 1993 (4?) voucher vote - was close until the end... some big FEAR ads went up and the initiative was slaughtered). Davis's first election was supposed to be close. He wasn't particularly popular, but Lungrend (sp?) was seen as a bit ominous - close up until the end then boom - handy election. Then his reelection - supposed to be a tossup (and would have been had it been Riorden) - but repubs pick a more extreme repub.. fear factor... boom reversal at the polls. Or go to Sen Boxer's last reelection. Supposed to be very very close since she was perceived to be so liberal. Days before the election they hold last minute HUGE fundraisers (bringing Hillary in) - for fear of not getting the big push and GOTV effort. Fong ran as a pretty conservative repub... fear factor (or maybe fatigue) ticks in... she wins.

Now... what is more scary than someone winning with a couple percentages of the total votes? What if one some with name recognitions are of the more extreme (or perceived to be) ala Lungren and Simon? What if the one who is not extreme - as the days grow closer looks more and more bafoonish on one hand and on the other might be considering *gasp* touching sacred cow taxes? What if the perception of a clownish spectacle is hovering over the state... suddenly looking gratuitous and unrequested and irresponsible (not to mention the costs at the time when the budget is in dissarray)? Is there not a tidbit of fatigue at the republicans who brought this mess on creeping into the dynamics a possibility?

Does this make people more likely to come out (to vote to make sure whatever "worst case scenario" perceived by the individual doesn't happen)? Independents as well as democrats?

Also - tell us about California Independents how do they tend to vote? Do the tend to vote with the dems or repubs? I don't think it is a 50/50 split as you suggest.


While I appreciate your attempt to put rational numbers (and assume rational motivations/behaviors of voters) to this quagmire of an unprecedented event, I think the situation is much, much more dynamic than you suggest.

CA's problems are almost 100% caused by Enron and Wilson's deregulation. This is the LAST thing anybody wants you to know. The media and the Republicans are telling huge lies, and because the truth doesn't have the same money behind it, Davis is doing poorly.

since then i might be convinced of it's ligitamacy in THIS case.

sounds like to me that some rich 'ex'-felon disrupted the gov, but then again i am a moderate ;->

peace

But please understand, allegations of wrongdoing have nothing to do with recall elections in California. Wrongdoing would call for impeachment, which is initiated in the state Assembly. Recall elections enable the voters of the state to collectively change their mind about whether or not someone should be in office. No "good" reason is required.

Then you already sign onto the recall as legitimate. That battle is already over since sitting it out will simply be abdicating from the result- or guaranteeing the outcome will benefit mobilized Repugs.

The recall plebiscite has no illegitmacy option although there should have possibly been the opposition of a competing "against the recall" petition beating out the other. I guess it just gets crazier.

The "illegitimacy option" as you call it would be to vote NO on the recall question, would it not?

Yes, I know this has been taken up in "Ask the Admin" forum. That notwithstanding ...

This person is clearly hyping and manipulating the facts to promote an agenda that is against the best interests of the CA Democratic Party, and in the converse can only increase Republican chances for success. Numerous relative points made that definitively and accurately discredit this ill-advised strategy have been met with willful ignorance and continued manipulation.

It seems to me that DU already has more than one remedy available for this.

I think those most informed would agree that this issue indirectly affects the entire nation, particularly the 2004 election. Surely that is another raison d'être supporting admin involvement.

Just my unsolicited and not so humble opinion
:shrug:

"So, how do I donate money to Gray Davis and Cruz Bustamante?"

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=104&topic_id=161462

and

"Petition to stop the CA recall"

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=104&topic_id=177779

It would be nice to come up with a unified position about it.

Frankly, I'm a bit confused and very conflicted about the whole mess- especially with today's news. I'm relying on my CA fellow posters to help us all sort this out and come up with the best way to defeat it!

really, I will try to answer all those threads. Feel free to PM me to alert me to any I should look at.