Some clues to 2004 election strategy, thanks to CA race?

CA is a huge state with a huge economy. Clearly, national economic strategies pursued by Bush administration have an influence on CA economy.

Right before elections, the people with the power to do it always try to stoke the economy so that people feel content and unwilling to change. (Nixon sent out social security checks, or something like that, just before Nov 72 election & some might say that 2000 gas price runup was meant to hurt Gore and Clinton.)

Now, in CA, I think there may be some interesting stuff going on in this respect. Of course, Davis is the incumbant and wants to make people feel like they don't want to change horses. But the fact is, he is getting screwed by Republicans on the federal level (no caps on Enron, no Federal assistance, which feds would do in other circumstances, like if it were TX which was hurting). Now, I get the feeling that voters are beginning to think that things might get worse if Republicans get elected. I also feel that if voters are content with the economy, they might not feel the urgency to go out and vote, which helps Republicans.

Or I could be reading this totally wrong. It could be the opposite.

In any event, despite the circus, people do have a sense of urgency, and a sense that this recall isn't right -- that's it's no longer the joke it's being portrayed as being. Maybe 2000 changed the rules (maybe Clinton is exactly right about the CA strategy). Maybe Californians really don't like Bush, and see Bush's hands in this. I don't know.

However, there are two things going on right now on a national level, which may have an impact on CA, and this election. The stock market is rebounding and the dollar is stregthening. That might make Californians feel more complacent (my sense), or it may make them feel like Davis is doing OK (but I somehow doubt it). On the other hand, gas prices are skyrocketing, which makes people feel poorer. Will people blame Bush for the gas prices, or will it make them feel poorer and more inclined to vote for a Republican.

Or are these things which are total at the whim of the marketplace and not manipulations by the Bush administration? If they are manipulations, will the economy tank in October after the recall and after it can no longer sustain being propped up artificially? Will Bush tank the economy before the election to hurt Davis? Will he prop it up to create complancency and reduce turnout?

In any event, I feel CA is big enough, and this race important enough to Republicans (so long as polls show that Arnold is within striking distance), that, whatever Bush does to economy and to national mood before October will be same strategies he uses before election next year.