NEW Zogby Poll Shocker: DEAN has 21 POINT lead in NH

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/nation/2003-08-27-democrats-poll_x.htm

Dean surges to double-digit lead over Kerry in N.H.
WASHINGTON (AP) — Democrat Howard Dean has jumped out to a commanding 21-point lead over rival John Kerry in the latest New Hampshire poll.

Dean, who held a single-digit advantage in a recent survey, led Kerry 38% to 17% in the Zogby International poll of likely primary voters conducted Aug. 23-26 and released Wednesday.

Kerry, the Massachusetts senator, led in New Hampshire polls earlier this year, including a 26% to 13% advantage in February. The two candidates were essentially tied in a poll by Zogby in June.

The August survey comes as Dean has shown political strength in his fund raising, drawn large crowds for his "Sleepless Summer" tour and appeared in television ads in New Hampshire, which is slated to hold its primary Jan. 27.

Pollster John Zogby said Dean's support was in all regions of the state, among men and women, Democrats and independents, liberals and moderates. Dean took support from Rep. Dick Gephardt of Missouri and from undecided voters.

I'm a Kerry fan, but if Dean ignites the rank-and-file Democrats, "Let's Roll!"

However, if the objective is to remove bush, there's some bad news there. Out of all the candidates currently running, Dean polls dead last against bush. Sheesh.

Got a link to where Dean polls dead last?

"...Dean has across the board support in both congressional districts, among men and women, democrats and independents, liberals and moderates..."

He is leading Gep among Union members in Iowa

I think he is slowly but surely putting together a broad based coalition to take on and defeat Bush.

"Out of all the candidates currently running, Dean polls dead last against bush."

That's hysterical. According to the Draft Clark's own poll, it is actually Clark who polls dead last against Bush!

Shhesh is right. Get your facts straight. Clark 37.4% vs. Bush 48.6%.

http://www.draftwesleyclark.com/images/analysis.pdf

I've said for some time that Dean has the stuff.

anyone but Lieberman! My only concern about Dean is can he win any southern states? The repubs wwill use the gay civil union thing against him big time to rally the social conservative religious wacko base.

n/t

But do the other candidates have the southern baggage of being governor of the only state in the union that currently has gay civil unions? That's going to be a killer in the south. They'll demonize him as the new satan. Do the electoral math. Can Dean or any democrat win without winning any southern states?

Dean has said that region would of course be a factor in that decision.

Dean, they won't vote for him because of his running mate.

on both issues of guns and civil unions. Folks in the South don't like the federal government telling them what they must and must not do.

He doesn't have to carry a single southern state--all Dean has to do is win every state Gore "won", plus New Hampshire and he wins.

Note: I put the word "won" in quotes so the never get over it crowd won't feel compelled to point out that Gore won Florida.

> Note: I put the word "won" in quotes so the never get over it crowd
> won't feel compelled to point out that Gore won Florida.

And we thank you for that.

Atlant

Withouth FL Gores loses by fifteen or so Electoral College Votes not four.

Which states picked up votes again?

all he needed was NV

He may be able to break up the republican lock on some southern states. Remember a lot of states in the mid-west only go red by 5% to 10%. So a candidate does not have to win the whole state over from the right... they just have to win a few more percent.

Dean's NRA rating will help him a lot in the south and mid-west. That alone will win him states like CO and MO. There are folks in those states who would vote dem, were it not for the gun issue.

And frankly the groups who would be turned off by the civil unions thing, are not people who would vote Dem anyway. So it is not going to hurt him as much as it will help him.

And Dean also is not ignoring the south, he is going there and telling the people that voting repuke for 30 years hasn't gotten them anything but screwed.

Do not underestamate the draw of education and health coverage in rural communities in the south.

Dean is going to win.

I live in CO, and I couldn't disagree more. I think Dean would get crushed here.

- he has a huge lead
- he's getting incredible press coverage: cover of Newsweek two weeks ago; front page of NY Times today
- he's sucking the wind out of his competition
- he's taking on * NOW, and he's winning that war of words

We need leaders to bring the country back in the direction of justice and true compassion. The other candidates will have to turn back into Democrats or Dean will simply walk away with the nomination.

Dean's a really good talker and I'm impressed. That's because he's the only electable Democrat promoting the values of the Democratic party. There's no reason for me to vote for a candidate who might as well be a Republican, and certainly no reason to vote for somebody who supported Bush's war.

In the primary I'm voting for Sharpton. In the general election I'll vote for any Democrat except the ones who voted for the war.

In the general election I'll vote for any Democrat except the ones who voted for the war.

So if its Kerry vs. Bush in the general, who will you vote for?

I will vote for Kerry. As I have said, what I look for in a candidate is progress, not perfection.

Kerry does not represent as much progress on the issue of war as I would like, but he does represent some progress. So I would vote for him.

Ralph Nader (G)
Ron Browne (L)
Pat Buchanan (Reform)
McReynolds (S)

Pat Buchanan won in '96. John McCain beat Bush in 2000 (and Bradley came within a fingernail of beating Gore).

New Hampshire's days as a bellweather state are over.

It used to be the case that a candidate had to win NH to win the presidential election (the correlation between these two really was 100%).

Today it's just the opposite. If you win NH it means you're going to be the also-ran. The correlation for this, since 1992, is now 100%.

So hey, bring it on.

What changed? I think NH voters are just screwy. They used to have a reputation for conservatism but now they seem to favor populists, mavericks, and underdogs.

If Kerry wants to win NH he should do everything he can to make Dean look like the front runner.

But I wouldn't recommend it: win NH and you'll lose the nomination. That seems to be how it works today.

> (and Bradley came within a fingernail of beating Gore).

Actually, Green+Dem DID win NH by a handy margin. Unfortunately,
that's not how the votes are counted so Bush topped Al Gore and took
the state's Electoral votes.

Atlant

"Pollster John Zogby said Dean's support was in all regions of the state, among men and women, Democrats and independents, liberals and moderates."

kerry supporters are uncharacteristically subdued and quiet today...

The news really is about Dean, but there is one tiny little bit of data that should not be overlooked. The only other candidate to move up month over month was John Edwards. In fact, he doubled his support from 2% to 4%. Yes, it's still miniscule, but it means that two candidates, Dean and Edwards, are gaining supporters. With five months to go, don't underestimate Edwards. He may not finish first in NH, but a second or third place finish in NH and a win in South Carolina could offer a real challenge to Dean.

nothing can change in 7 months right :)

but what this poll means is that DK should return to his fight in the House and Lieberman should...well...just go away.

To win re-selection. What is with these lamebrains?

only 18% feel strongly that way. Give it time.

That's not very good for Graham, DK, Sharpton, MB, and Kucinich.

While I don't think NH is important for Edwards, it's nice to see a bit of a bump there.