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if you have a big national association group made up of smaller entities, like say American Bar Association, and all these law firms drop the plan because they can't deduct premiums, then it could impact the premiums charged to those that remain in the plan.
on the other hand, the fees charged to a group like say Walgreens employees, should stay fairly stable as those fees are based on their group history and size..this would be a huge group, so risk is spread out in a bigger population. In this example we would assume that Walgreen continues to offer benefits to its (pulling a number out of the air) 50000 employees nationwide. The underwriter may offer a different plan that has higher copays, higher deductible, and may charge the whole group a slightly increased rate. In a really big group, the premium increase is going to be somewhat less per employee..and of course at that point it is up to the employer how much of the premium they will absorb and how much pass on to the employee.
If your plan is a self funded plan, the employer is taking the premiums from all employees from CEO down to janitor and mailboy, and holding its own reserve, from which medical bills are paid, according to however the plan is set up. Usually there is a per person cap. This type of plan really depends on the health of the general population in the group staying fairly good, because if you collect $3000 in premiums from every employee and only spend 40% of that in medical payments, and admin costs, the other 60% stays in the fund to keep it seeded for the big expenses that do happen. Since most of the premium expense actually stays in house, this type of plan could be impacted to a lesser degree by the elimination of the tax break. Of course the ratio of employer to employee contribution is going to shift too, with more burden on the employee...depends on how benevolent the employer is in the first place.
One thing the self funded companies do is take out a catastrophic group plan that picks up when someone's individual annual cap is exceeded..like say a big cancer incident w/chemo/bone marrow transplant or a major injury.
Hope I haven't confused your issue too much, I have spent the last 30 years working with one form of medical insurance or another, claims and CSR, including Medicare
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