Final Recall Predictions - Democratic Underground

TSIAS

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Mon Oct-06-03 03:18 PM
Original message

Final Recall Predictions

First, I think this race is about turnout. I think we can get enough minorities and union members to the polls to pull through. The latest Arnold scandals may work to depress his turnout or swing it to McClintock.

My prediction on the Recall is as follows:

YES- 49
No- 51

On the replacement:

Bustamante- 38
Schwarzenegger- 35
McClintock- 20
Camejo-4
The rest- 3

Maybe this is wishful thinking, but I think we have a chance on one or both of the ballots tomorrow.

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Cush

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Mon Oct-06-03 03:20 PM
Response to Original message

1. Voter turnout will decide it

I just think it's too close at this point

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goobergunch

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Mon Oct-06-03 03:22 PM
Response to Original message

2. My prediction is printed here:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=104&topic_id=476960#477558

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ScotTissue

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Mon Oct-06-03 03:22 PM
Response to Original message

3. I see it the opposite

Yes - 51 to 60 percent
No - 49 to 40

on the replacement:

Arnold: 40
Bustamante: 28
McClintock: 18
Camejo: 2
The others: 12 percent

Court wrangling, arguments about the logistics of a Terminator takeover in Sacramento, and Recall Arnold! movement to commence on Tuesday evenng.

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Padraig18

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Mon Oct-06-03 03:22 PM
Response to Original message

4. I agree

I think the 'no' vote might go as high as 55%, though, depending on turnout.

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PROGRESSIVE1

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Mon Oct-06-03 03:22 PM
Response to Original message

5. My Prediction

Recall

Yes:48%
No: 52%

Bustamante: 38% (slight edge for this great man)
Schwartzenegger: 38%
McClintock: 17%
Camejo: 4%
Others: 5%

:dem:

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pmbryant

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Mon Oct-06-03 03:23 PM
Response to Original message

6. I like your thinking ;-)

I think (hope) the recall will do worse than you predict:

YES 47
NO 53

I'll follow your lead on the replacement, though I believe (hope) it will be irrelevant:

Cruz 38
Arnold 30
McC 20
Camejo 5
Other 7

:hi:

--Peter

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ps1074

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Mon Oct-06-03 03:23 PM
Response to Original message

7. Here is mine

YES - 49.5

NO - 50.5

Second part is irrelevant.

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clar

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Mon Oct-06-03 03:23 PM
Response to Original message

8. I think it'll be close

but in the other direction.

Yes: 52%
No: 48%

Ahhnold: 37%
Cruz: 35%
McClintock: 14%
others: 14%

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TSIAS

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Mon Oct-06-03 03:24 PM
Response to Original message

9. Sorry. I made a dupe

:spank:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=104&topic_id=476960#477558

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okieinpain

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Mon Oct-06-03 03:24 PM
Response to Original message

10. what happens if the recall is 50/50

I think that arnold will pull more then cruz.

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Tue May 14th 2024, 09:15 PM
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