Who Do You Think Will Win The Iowa Caucus?

I think it will be Dean or Gep... I read that Iowa has the fourth largest elderly population in the United States.... That's why Gep is hammering him on Medicare....

I think this poll would be more instructive if we didn't vote for our favorite candidate unless you think he or she will win Iowa....




on edit. I had to add Kerry after it was pointed out to me I excluded him. I apologize.

My bad...

I think he'll sneak up on Dean near the end...it's obvious from results so far that people have voted for their favorites despite your instructions. ;-)

The Unions come through for him in the end. I don't think that leads him anywhere though.

Although I'm a Clark supporter, I don't believe that Clark has a chance of winning Iowa, although New Hampshire and South Carolina are definately in his grasp.

Dean will shock Gephardt in Iowa IN New hampshire Dean will deafeat Kerry. This will end there campaigns. If DKerry gives his votes in IOwa to Gephardt and Gephardt gives his votes to Kerry in New Hampshire. They could survive andhelp hold of Dean.

Former Vermont Governor Howard Dean continues to hold his lead in ballot preference among likely Democratic primary voters in the New Hampshire Democratic Presidential Preference Primary according to the latest New Hampshire Poll. In ballot preference, Dean leads with 29% to 19% for Senator John Kerry. Dean and Kerry continue to be the only two candidates to receive double-digit support. When it comes to candidate favorability, 63% of likely Democratic primary voters have a favorable opinion of Dean and 63% have a favorable opinion of Kerry.

Awareness of Wesley Clark has increased to 90% from 47% in August, but over half of likely Democratic primary voters aware of Clark say they do not know enough about him to form an opinion.

These resultsare based on 600 completed telephone interviews among a random sample of registered Democrats and undeclared voters in New Hampshire saying they always vote or vote in most Democratic primary elections. This sample includes 413 Democrats (69%) and 187 undeclared voters (31%). The interviews were conducted October 5 through 8, 2003. The theoretical margin of error for the total sample of 600 is plus or minus 4 percentage points, 95% of the time, on questions where opinion is evenly split.

The greatest change in ballot preference since the September survey is preference for Wesley Clark increasing from 2% to 5% (which is within the margin of error).

http://americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/dem/

It was unintentional...

what I'm unsure of. I think either Gephardt or Clark will win second place.

Second place for Gep in Iowa is as good as ninth...

Second place for Kerry in NH is as good as ninth.....

Two New Englanders enter New Hampshire. One man leaves....*






*Joe will hang around regardless....

that simply an "accident"???

because Carter won it. The agriculture connection could help him out.
However, the reasons that Edwards could win (populist campaign, southern) are the same ones that Clark or Dean could win. So we'll have to wait and see.

Another reason that Edwards might win is the DC primary. Nobody has talked about the implications of this, but Sharpton seems to like Edwards a lot.

and Gep and Dean have the organizations....

I understand Dean has an excellent on the ground organization in Iowa already (every county) that just might rival Gephardt's.

I am sure Clark does not have much organization there at all. He has not shown much penetration in the midwest where he actually should fare well with conservative Democrats. However, there is still time to develop something.

Kucinich has the best voting record for Labor interests, but no money for on the ground organization.

At this point it's still too early in the campaign season to know what revelations or reversals tomorrow might bring. Ask again in a couple of months...

otherwise, you certainly give an unfair advantage to the candidates who were first on your chart...

you do want DUer's to understand that your chart is 'fair and balanced' now, don't you ???


on edit: or is this some kind of "Florida...Kathyrn Harris-type ballot...."????

If someone else wants they can create a new post....

Yawn

Kerry and a number of other candidates burned themselves on the Iraq War Resolution. At the rate things are going, do you think we'll be at 500 killed before the end of the year? More? Or do you really believe that poll saying the American people don't care about Iraq or those who enabled it to happen....?

I'm a little curious why so many votes for Clark, last poll I saw showed Dean and Gephardt at the top and Kerry a not so distant 3rd.

gephardt will be able to work with congress better than any of the other candidates...as if that means much...considering what he did as minority leader.

but he is the stealth candidate who seems to be everyone's #3 choice and has the backing of labor which itself is a powerful force to have in the primaries where activism is at a premium.

he was the one in the last debate that stressed strongest the traditional democratic focal points of secial security and medicare.

i have seen other candidates perform better and worse this campaign, but gephardt is the most consistent of the bunch and stays on message the best.

I'm a Dean supporter, but something tells me Gephardt may be able to pull it out. Gephardt knows this is a state he MUST have. A lot of this will depend on the fundraising in the next few months. If Dean keeps up at this pace and Gephardt stays the same or loses, the edge will go to Dean.