Withdrawal from Iraq...

Exiting Iraq: Strategies for Bush
By Paul Reynolds
BBC News website world affairs correspondent


Underlying President Bush's change of rhetoric over Iraq lies an acceptance that the US and other coalition forces will not defeat the insurgency by themselves.


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The emphasis has therefore shifted towards stressing the need for Iraqis to do the job, which should thereby enable the Americans to start withdrawing forces.

Whether it works or not is an entirely different matter.

We have been past so many milestones along this road: the fall of Saddam; the appointment of the provisional government; the capture of Saddam; the January elections; the transitional government, the referendum, etc.

At each milestone the way ahead was clear, we were told. It proved not to be so.

For a start there is the questionable ability of the Iraqi forces.

And then there is the strength of the insurgency - a word, by the way, US Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld says should not be used. He has suggested "enemies of the legitimate Iraqi government".

The change has also been driven by two other important factors - first, domestic American unease about the war and second, the forthcoming elections in Iraq designed to produce a constitutional government.

The first requires the president to steady the ship with a display of confidence, and the second enables him to place responsibility on an Iraqi government for prosecuting the war.

But those who think that Mr Bush is about to "declare victory and leave", as Senator George Aiken once suggested for Vietnam, are likely to be disappointed.

Mr Bush is a resolute character and does not want to go down as the man who lost Iraq.

Indeed all the signs are that he feels he is on a mission.

And that means that if US forces are felt to be needed, they will be provided.