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My Analysis of The American Economy (I Invite All Comments.)

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Yavin4 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-03-05 02:48 PM
Original message
My Analysis of The American Economy (I Invite All Comments.)
Here goes:

Background
In slow periods of economic activity, the government can take measures to stimulate growth. For instance, the government can use its power to tax to create revenue which in turn they can use to create public sector jobs. With jobs, workers can spend money. With this new spending, more private sector jobs are created and thus, the economy starts to grow again on its own. This is Keyesian economic theory.

The Republican alternative is to use tax cuts as an economic stimulus. However, because the bulk of the benefits only go to a small number of people, most of whom can already buy what they want, this stimulus is not very good.

Interest Rates as Stimulus
The other economic stimulus is lowering interest rates which lead to higher borrowing. When the interest rates are low, borrowing costs for all consumers is also lower, which increases their purchasing power, and we've seen this with skyrocketing home prices.

In theory, people can buy more which stimulates job growth as producers make more goods to keep up with increased demand. The cycle goes, consumers buy more, producers have to hire more people to meet the demand, jobs are created, and the economy grows again.

Analysis: Why the Interest Rates Stimulus Isn't Working

Recent economic reports are showing that the economy is growing well. However, job growth has been anemic, and the population is telling pollsters that the economy is not doing well.

The answer is this: The economy is indeed growing, but for most people it's doing poorly. The reason is that people do have more money because of the flow of cheap debt for the last three years due to lower interest rates. People also have higher home values because of these low rates. So, if you own a home with rapid accelerating appreciation, you can re-finance, sell it to buy another house, or play games with debt manipulation. For you, the economy is doing well.

However, for people depending on jobs and wage growth, the economy is not doing well because more and more production is being done overseas. The job growth that should come as a result of the increased economic stimulus is just not happening here. The only jobs that are being created are the low end service sector jobs or the people that sell you the goods at the point of purchase. These jobs tend to be temporary without benefits.

For instance, a homeowner now has more money through re-financing, etc. That homeowner spends this money at Home Depot for home repairs, etc. Home Depot buys its inventory from overseas, and the only jobs that are created domestically are the store retail clerks.

Conclusion
Going forward, the economy is heading into trouble because the stimulus created by lowered interest rates is being removed, and the increased job creation has not happened. When homeowners can no longer play debt games, they will restrict their purchasing, and with most production being done overseas, our economy won't be able to stand on its own.
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OrangeCountyDemocrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-03-05 02:55 PM
Response to Original message
1. You Got It!
As interest rates rise, and housing values decline, people won't be able to borrow as much. Worse yet, is there are so many companies in the business of mortgages and loans, when people stop refinancing, they're in trouble too.

Sometime next year, after another couple of rate hikes, that's when we'll see the beginning of the true impact, and it won't be pretty.
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FloridaPat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-03-05 02:59 PM
Response to Original message
2. Yes, a few comments.
The indicators that the economy is doing well is GDP. The nice number of the GDP includes government spending - you know - that $1+ billion a week we've been spending for the fiascos in Iraq and Afghanistan? So a big chuck of GDP is going to defense contractors and out of the country.

The cheap interest rates: yes, on homes they've been great. The prime rate down to 1% was nice - for the banks. For consumers using credit cards, the rates have been going up with every plan the credit card companies can come up with. Home interest rates are supposidly based on bond rates. The credit card companies were paying 1-3% for their money and the consumer was still paying 12% to 30% in some cases.

And lastly jobs. A lot of middle class jobs have been sent overseas - manufacturing and computer jobs. A lot of computer jobs are currently being filled by people from other countries. I've spent most of the last 2 years unemployed. I finally get a job and I'm 1 of 3 US citizens on a project of 15 people working for a government agency.

Yes, the economy is in trouble. We are loosing good paying jobs and our government is spending faster than they can print money. We consumers should have slowed down spending years ago. We should not be buying stuff made overseas. But we are too dumb for save ourselves.
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Yavin4 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-03-05 03:05 PM
Response to Reply #2
3. Bond Rates Are Based On Interest Rates
All interest rates are based on what the Fed does. That's why the Fed chairman is indeed the most powerful person in the government.

Also, if you recall in 2002 and 2003, many credit card companies were offering 0% interest for the first 6 months, additionally many store credit cards and auots were also offering this deal.

The only sector in our economy that's creating middle class jobs is the public sector. Government workers, teachers, fire fighters, police, prison guards, etc. These workers are the last of the middle class. Gov. Arnold in CA found this out in the last election.
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man4allcats Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-03-05 03:45 PM
Response to Original message
4. Thank you for your analysis.
Edited on Sat Dec-03-05 04:00 PM by anotheryellowdog
I wish I had had it available to me last night when I was preparing a response to the Politics Forum of the Houston Chronicle (click Forum). My post to that forum contains a number of links that some folks here may find useful so I will post the submission here as well. Note that in my post (which, by the way, was in reply to someone who seemed mostly in agreement with me) I have placed the poster's comments in bold italics while my replies follow in standard text.

"You have to remember several things that remain important to the (majority) of the American people (money and self preservation)." I will resist a strong temptation to quote Patrick Henry here. After all, you are right. Most Americans are comfortable in their little sandboxes. Regrettably, few have the moral and ethical commitment of Henry and the many other patriots that built this country.

"... the stockmarket is raging ..." It is? See < http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3683270/ > where it states that "Solid employment data failed to extend Wall Street’s rally Friday, as renewed interest rate concerns spurred profit-taking and left stocks mixed. The market’s major stock indexes also ended the week mixed." and also < http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/10298248/ > this: "The stock market has faltered a bit as the Dow Jones industrial average approaches the 11,000 mark ...". I mention this not in an attempt to deny the recent economic upturn but rather to put it into perspective. Though I am not necessarily a big fan of Alan Greenspan, I do feel his recent comments < http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/7588284/ > regarding the danger posed to the U.S. economy by its burgeoning deficits are worthy of note. Mr. Greenspan has favored a pay as you go policy advocating, among other things, no new tax cuts without the ability first to pay for them. BushCo has apparently taken Mr. Greenspan at his word. In the Budget Reconciliation Act (aka, the Reverse Robin Hood budget; i.e., it robs from the poor and gives to the rich) now working its way through Congress, the Republicans are proposing to partially fund 70 billion dollars in new tax breaks to wealthy individuals and businesses by cutting 50 billion dollars from social programs such as Medicare and Medicaid, food stamps and student loans, programs that have been developed to help "secure the blessings of liberty" as it were to those who don't earn $200,000 plus annually. It is a morally offensive piece of legislation that illustrates clearly the depths to which this administration will lower itself in order to make the rich richer at the expense not only of the poor but also of the working class. For a detailed statement of who is hurt and who is helped by this proposed legislation, see < http://www.cbpp.org/10-28-05bud.htm >. If, after reading the information, you are justly offended by the crassness of the proposal, you can help to do something about it at < http://capwiz.com/aauw/issues/alert/?alertid=8136621&type=CO >. In point of fact, while the President may feel the U.S.'s current economic life is just a bowl of cherries, a majority of investors and consumers are less than optimistic for reasons stated at < http://poll.gallup.com/content/default.aspx?ci=20188 >.

"Bush's record make look impressive to the average citizen." Really? What average citizen would that be? According to a recent Gallop poll (that's where those stats come from), Bush's overall job performance rating is a meager 37% with fully 60% disapproving (see http://poll.gallup.com/content/?ci=19891 ). Part of the reason for these abysmal numbers is summed up in the U.S. Taxpayers' Quarterly Report issued April 14, 2005 (see http://www.americanprogress.org/site/pp.asp?c=biJRJ8OVF&b=509697 ). That report contrasts statistics from January 1, 2001 to the same statistics for April 10, 2005. You state that "The administration's tax cuts help the average American stay employed (the unemployment is around 5%?) ...". The cited report lists the unemployment rate at 5.2%, but that was in April of this year. Current estimates do in fact put the number at 5%. In January, 2001, however, that figure was only 4%. Thus, since Bush first took office, unemployment has risen by a whopping 25%. Nice work, George. People are upset and rightfully so. Bush's borrow and spend philosophy has run up an 8 trillion dollar debt. And who's going to pay for that? We are, and our kids are, and their kids are, and their kids' kids are and so on and so on and so on. BushCo has been a national disaster of epic, even Biblical, proportions - far worse even than Katrina or Iraq. What to do, what to do? While I applaud your sentiments regarding personal as well as congressional and executive oversight and accountability, I think the time has come for us to be a bit more aggressive in terms of an approach for dealing with the current remarkable mess we find ourselves in as a nation. Impeachment is one option, and I support it. Another has been suggested at < http://news.yahoo.com/s/ucru/20051202/cm_ucru/thecaseforanationalrecallelection >, and I must admit it is not without a certain appeal.


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Tactical Progressive Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-03-05 05:04 PM
Response to Reply #4
5. 70 billion dollars in new tax breaks
'Republicans are proposing to partially fund 70 billion dollars in new tax breaks to wealthy individuals and businesses by cutting 50 billion dollars from social programs such as Medicare and Medicaid, food stamps and student loans, ...'

That about says it all.
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Yavin4 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-03-05 07:42 PM
Response to Reply #5
6. Such Tax Cuts Will Actually Hurt The Economy
1.) Takes money away from consumers. Poor people will take money away from spending on other items to buy food.

2.) Gives money to people who already have all the purchasing power humanly possible. This money will be invested in growth markets overseas, idle in offshore accounts, or not be used at all to stimulate the economy.

3.) Creates deficits. Hurts the government's ability to pay for its services, meet its future obligations, and pay for this war.

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