The world's gathering storm (global warming & hurricanes)

It was the year of the hurricane. It was also the year when scientists said global warming can increase the intensity of hurricanes. But it was not the year when everyone could agree that hurricane Katrina, which devastated New Orleans in August, was in part the result of global warming brought on by emissions of man-made greenhouse gases.

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Kerry Emanuel, of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, described in the journal Nature a new measure of hurricane destructiveness. He compared changes in the measure of destructiveness, called "total dissipation of power", with the rise in sea-surface temperatures in the Atlantic over 30 years.

He linked an increase in hurricanes with rises in ocean temperature caused by global warming and climate change. "Future warming may lead to an upward trend in tropical cyclone destructive potential, and - taking into account an increasing coastal population - a substantial increase in hurricane-related losses in the 21st century."

The study found that tropical storms are lasting 60 per cent longer and their wind speeds can be 15 per cent higher, implying global tropical cyclone activity is responding in a major way to global warming.



http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/story.cfm?c_id=2&ObjectID=10359289

Dark and stormy forecast for 2006
Team expects 17 named storms next season — the most it has ever predicted

By ERIC BERGER
Copyright 2005 Houston Chronicle

Expect another frenetic hurricane season next year, a pre-eminent team of forecasters said Tuesday.

The predictions, made annually by a research team at Colorado State University, call for 17 named storms and nine hurricanes next season. Five of those hurricanes, the forecasters say, are likely to become major, reaching at least Category 3 status with winds of up to 130 mph.

The prediction is higher than any ever made in December by the team, and it's not just because a record 26 tropical systems formed this year, shattering the 1933 high by five.

"Every statistical predictor we have for next year is above average," said Philip Klotzbach, one of the Colorado State forecasters.

www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/front/3508040.html